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2009 NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 3

Here are my four predictions for Week 3 in the NFL. Last week I went 3-1 straight up (friggin’ Titans) and 1-3 against the spread so as usual, gamblers should have no qualms about fading. (These are also my season totals since I didn’t make any predictions for Week 1.)

Titans (0-2) at Jets (2-0), Sunday, 1:00PM ET
It would be foolish to pick against a hot team with everything working in their favor right now…right? Well, I’m going to do it anyway. Jeff Fisher’s team is too good to be 0-2 and while I love what Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez have brought to the Jets, the law of averages suggest that a rookie quarterback is going to struggle at some point. Tennessee’s defense has a way of making opposing quarterbacks look bad (save of their performance last week against Matt Schaub, who threw four touchdown passes) and I’m willing to bet Sanchez suffers some growing pains this week. The key for the Titans is whether or not Kerry Collins can avoid turnovers while facing a New York defense that will use multiple fronts and attack him from all angles. Getting Chris Johnson involved in screen and draw plays would be beneficial for Tennessee, especially if the Jets’ defense continues to be aggressive under Ryan. I don’t see the Titans falling to 0-3 and I think Ryan and Sanchez’s come down to earth a bit this week.
Odds: Jets –3.
Prediction: Titans 16, Jets 13.

Falcons (2-0) at Patriots (1-1), 1:00PM ET
This is the most intriguing game on the Week 3 schedule because it will serve as a great indication of where both of these teams are right now. The Falcons are 2-0 after beating two playoff teams from a year ago (the Dolphins and Panthers, respectively) and Matt Ryan is off to a tremendous start (108.5 QB rating). But Atlanta’s defense will be tested this weekend against a New England offense that was held to only nine points a week ago and will no doubt be focused on rebounding. Tom Brady hasn’t looked comfortable on his surgically repaired knee and seemed confused by the amount of looks that the Jets’ defense gave him last week. If the Falcons can get creative with their front seven, they might be able to generate pressure on Brady and come up with a couple of turnovers. If that happens, Ryan has more than enough weapons (Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, etc.) in the passing game to pick apart a Patriots’ defense that is riddled with holes right now. It’s usually unwise to go against Bill Belichick and the Patriots when they’re pissed off and needing a win, but this isn’t the same New England defense that we’ve seen throughout the years and I think Ryan will lead Atlanta to a huge victory at Foxboro.
Odds: Patriots –4.
Prediction: Falcons 30, Patriots 27.

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Fantasy Quick-Hitters: Welker, Mendenhall, Forsett and more

Bill Belichick: Wes Welker “was inactive because he wasn’t able to play.” Thanks for the information, Bill. Welker owners should absolutely have Julian Edelman on their roster, especially in PPR leagues. He’s also worth a look for non-Welker owners who have a spot open on their bench. If Welker’s injury lingers, Edelman is startable on a weekly basis. On Sunday, he ran all the same routes that Welker usually does and racked up 98 yards on eight receptions. He was targeted 16 times by Tom Brady. The Pats play in the first round of games on Sunday, so you’ll know early on whether or not to put Edelman in your lineup.

Mendenhall’s role to grow? HC Mike Tomlin insinuated that it will. Mendenhall had a 39-yard run in the third quarter of Sunday’s game against the Bears, and showed a burst that neither Willie Parker nor Mewelde Moore seem to offer right now. The original plan was some sort of committee, so don’t expect Mendenhall to take over and become a featured back. Even if Parker were to go down, Moore would be in on all third downs at a minimum.

The Seahawks planning to be without Hasselbeck in Week 3. Hasselbeck has a fractured rib and may not be able to play. Seneca Wallace isn’t a bad backup and has been a productive fantasy player in the past. He wouldn’t be a bad start for fantasy owners in two-QB leagues or for those owners that are in dire straits in standard leagues.

Cutler: Olsen “might have a 10-catch game coming up.” Don’t panic and cut ties with Olsen. He is still one of the most gifted pass-catching TEs in the league and his numbers will recover. He could have had a big game against the Steelers if not for a great hit along the sideline on a 20-yard catch (that jarred the ball loose) and a slip in the endzone on a sure-TD.

Justin Forsett coming on. I added him to my list of waiver wire acquisitions. Julius Jones is all right, but Forsett is gaining, and clearly outplayed him on Sunday. The Seahawks aren’t married to Jones, as evidenced by the Edgerrin James signing. Since he has big upside, Forsett is a good guy to roster and is worthy of flex/bye week starts in PPR formats.

King: Hasselbeck expected to play, McNabb doubtful for Week 3

According to SI.com’s Peter King, Matt Hasselbeck is expected to play this week against the Bears despite suffering a rib injury in Sunday’s loss to the 49ers.

From King’s Twitter page:

Re injuries: Am told Westbrook not bad, should play this week. Ditto Hasselbeck. McNabb? Still very sore. But Vick will only play spot duty.

King also reiterated on NBC last night that McNabb was doubtful to play in Week 3 as he continues to battle a rib injury himself. As King noted, the Eagles will continue to start Kevin Kolb (or get Jeff Garcia ready?) and ease Vick into games in sub packages.

Kolb threw for 391 yards and two touchdowns on 31 of 51 passing, although he did throw three interceptions. I know Andy Reid likes to throw the ball, but it’s probably never a good sign if Kolb is attempting 51 passes. Fortunately for the Eagles, they host Kansas City this Sunday and have their bye in Week 4.

Talk about a great time for the bye.

Hasselbeck suffers injury as 49ers beat Seahawks

It’s always nice when the football gods can add a little insult to injury.

Such was the case on Sunday when the Seahawks fell to the now 2-0 49ers 23-10 in San Francisco. Seattle signal caller Matt Hasselbeck was knocked out of the game after taking a blow to the back from linebacker Patrick Willis while trying to scramble into the end zone at the end of the first half. The team is calling it a rib injury, although there has to be major concern that Hasselbeck took the hit in the back after he virtually missed the entire 2008 season due to back problems.

The insult to Hasselbeck’s injury came when Seneca Wallace entered the game and couldn’t generate any second half points. He did throw a 1-yard touchdown pass to Julius Jones after Hasselbeck left the field, but that’s about where Wallace’s contributions to Seattle stopped as he often settled for check down and underneath passes.

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