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Did the Cubs overpay for Matt Garza?

Tampa Bay Rays Matt Garza watches from the dug out in the second inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in New York City on July 17, 2010.   UPI/John Angelillo Photo via Newscom

When a club trades five prospects (including their minor league pitcher of the year) in exchange for a starter, they usually get an ace in return. But not the Cubs.

On Friday, the Cubs traded top pitching prospect Chris Archer, outfielder Brandon Guyer, catcher Robinson Chirinos, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and outfielder Sam Fuld to the Rays in exchange for Matt Garza and two minor league prospects. Garza, who is coming off a career year, immediately fills the No. 2 void in Chicago’s rotation.

The key players for Tampa Bay were Archer and Lee. Archer went 15-3 during two different minor-league stints last season and won the Cubs’ 2010 minor league pitcher of the year award. Lee needs a couple of years in the minors to develop, but he’s regarded as a skilled defender with excellent speed and good range at shortstop.

Considering Garza won’t be viewed as an ace in Chicago, it stands to reason that the Cubs overpaid. But GM Jim Hendry had to do something to improve his rotation and at 27, Garza is already in the prime of his career. He’s also coming off a season in which he compiled a 15-10 record with a solid 3.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He averaged 6.6 strikeouts and 2.77 walks per nine innings and hitters batted just .248 against him last season.

He’s switching from the AL to the NL, so one would think that his numbers will only improve (or at the very least, stay the same). That’s huge for the Cubs, who desperately needed a top-of-the-rotation arm to go along with Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster. The NL Central isn’t considered a powerhouse division but the Cubs will face Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Joey Votto and newcomer Jayson Werth on a consistent basis so they needed to beef up their starting five.

Besides, what constitutes being an “ace” anyway? Cliff Lee wasn’t very ace-like in the World Series and Tim Lincecum had an atrocious August before rebounding to help the Giants win a championship Usually when you think of aces, they have overpowering stuff. Well consider that Rays’ pitching coach Jim Hickey once referred to Garza as having “the best stuff on the staff” and the fact that he can throw his curve, slider and change for strikes will only help the 27-year-old at the smallish Wrigley Field. He also no-hit the Tigers last year, so clearly Garza has what it takes to be the “ace” of the Cubs staff, even if he doesn’t take the mound on Opening Day.

The bottom line, perhaps, is that the Cubs acquired a proven player for several unproven commodities. There’s always a risk in a deal like this that a club will get burned when a prospect they traded away turns into a star. But as of January 7, 2011, this looks like a deal that works for both sides.

Hey, there’s the Rays’ offense!

Tampa Bay Rays' Carlos Pena hits a two-run home run in the ninth inning, scoring team-mate Sean Rodriguez during play against the Texas Rangers in Game 3 of their American League Division Series MLB baseball game in Arlington, Texas October 9, 2010. REUTERS/Mike Stone (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT BASEBALL)

It took two games and the threat of elimination but the Rays’ offense has finally showed up to the ALDS.

Behind Carl Crawford’s 2-for-5 day, the Rays beat the Rangers 6-3 on Saturday to cut Texas’ lead in the series down to 2-1. Crawford also hit a long ball and made a great sliding catch to rob Josh Hamilton of an eighth inning hit.

Perhaps the biggest surprise from the game was that Carlos Pena actually found the stadium and showed up. He went 2-for-3 with three RBI, two runs scored and also walked twice. His single to right in the eighth inning tied the game at 2-2 and then his homer in the ninth gave Tampa a 6-2 cushion heading into the last half inning.

Matt Garza contributed to the win, although he wasn’t nearly as sharp as he could been. He gave up two runs on five hits over six innings while striking out four and giving up a home run to Ian Kinsler. For the longest time, it appeared as though Kinsler’s dinger would hold up and the Rangers would proceed with the sweep.

Texas will have another chance today at 1:07PM ET to finish off the Rays for good. Tommy Hunter will oppose Wade Davis, who finished the season with a 12-10 record and a 4.07 ERA for the Rays.

Mikey’s MLB power rankings

A lot has changed since last week. The Dodgers have faded and the Rangers have caught fire. The Yankees and Red Sox have been steadily winning while Tampa bas dropped off just a bit. And the Mets and Braves keep battling for first place. Here are this week’s power rankings…..

1. New York Yankees (46-27)—Not only have they taken over first place in the mighty AL East, but the Yankees are starting to put a bit of distance between themselves, and the Rays and Sox. They just have way too much talent.

2. Texas Rangers (44-29)—We knew the Rangers would hit the ball, but did anyone expect their pitching staff to be fifth in the AL in ERA, and second in strikeouts? Quick, name me two of their starters…..I know, I couldn’t either.

3. Boston Red Sox (44-31)—Like the Yanks, too much talent, and too much straight up desire to win. No wonder the chowder heads love their team.

4. San Diego Padres (43-30)—Don’t look now, but the Padres have the best record in the National League. That is not a typo.

5. Tampa Bay Rays (43-30)—I’ll give you five reasons why the Rays aren’t going away any time soon—Garza, Price, Davis, Niemann and Shields. It’s almost like a young version of the ‘90’s Braves. But being no-hit again isn’t good, either.

6. Atlanta Braves (43-31)—Speaking of the Braves, these guys are turning back the clock with guys like Chipper Jones, Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson and Billy Wagner leading the way; and with Martin Prado leading the NL in batting.

7. New York Mets (42-31)—Seriously, RA Dickey is 6-0 with a 2.33 ERA in 7 starts? It’s like suddenly the Mets can do no wrong, and they just keep winning.

8. St. Louis Cardinals (40-33)—Raise your hand if you think the Cardinals are afraid of the Reds. I see a few hands up and they’re all in Southern Ohio.

9. Minnesota Twins (40-33)—Leading a weak division once again, and there’s no reason to believe the Twins will relinquish first place any time soon. Or that Joe Mauer’s average will continue to drop.

10. Cincinnati Reds (41-33)—They might be overachieving right now, but you can’t count them out.

Five new playoff contenders for the 2010 MLB season

While some enthusiasts will argue otherwise, there’s usually not a lot of change from one year to the next in baseball. Most pundits expect the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Angels, Cardinals, Twins, Dodgers and Rockies (all eight teams that made the playoffs in 2009) to be good again this year. MLB isn’t like the NFL where teams make unexpected playoff runs every year.

That said, that doesn’t mean there aren’t a couple of sleepers to watch out for in 2010. Below are five clubs that didn’t make the postseason last year that have the best odds (in my estimation) of making the playoffs this season.

1. Chicago White Sox
If you read the 2010 MLB season preview, you’re not surprised to see the White Sox at the top of this list. As long as Jake Peavy stays healthy, Chicago arguably has the best starting rotation one through five in the American League. (Boston fans may argue otherwise, but Boston fans can also shove off…just kidding…although not really.) But the key to the Chi Sox’s success this season lies in their offense. Yes, I’m banking on veterans Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios, Mark Teahen, Paul Konerko and Mark Kotsay to have productive years and yes, that may be asking a lot. But Gordon Beckham looks like a star in the making and the addition of Juan Pierre gives the Sox a solid leadoff hitter. I’m well aware that Chicago could finish third in a three-team race in the AL Central, but their pitching is going to keep them competitive all season and I’m willing to bet that their offense won’t be as bad as many believe.

2. Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have all the pieces in place to not only compete for the AL Wild Card, but also unseat the Angels in the AL West. Along with Felix Hernandez, the acquisition of Cliff Lee now gives Seattle the best 1-2 punch in the American League outside of Boston’s Josh Beckett and John Lackey. The problem is that the lineup lacks major punch. Chone Figgins and Ichiro give the M’s quality bats at the top of the order, but can this team score enough runs on a nightly basis? The club has been built on pitching and defense but if they want to make the postseason, the Mariners will have to prove that they can overcome a powerless lineup.

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What’s wrong with Josh Beckett?

I had the opportunity to watch the Red Sox-Rays game last night in what was supposed to be a great pitcher’s duel between Josh Beckett and Matt Garza. What it turned out to be was a Boston beat down, as Tampa Bay routed the BoSox 13-0 thanks to Garza’s near perfect game. (Jacoby Ellsbury’s infield single off Garza in the seventh ended his bid for a perfect game.)

Outside of Garza’s flirtation with perfection, one of the storylines was Beckett, who allowed seven runs on 10 hits in just 4.2 innings of work. He also allowed eight runs in his previous start, which means he has now surrendered seven or more runs in consecutive starts for just the second time in his career.

What was strange about his performance was that it wasn’t just another bad outing. Beckett was actually cruising until he got into trouble in the third, retiring six of the first seven batters he faced while also striking out four. He was throwing the ball hard, his curve was sharp and he had great command. It really looked like he was going to have one of those outings where you talk about him afterwards as being one of the best aces in baseball.

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2009 MLB Preview: #6 Tampa Bay Rays

Click Here to see Previews of all 30 MLB Teams

Offseason Movement: The Rays hope the signing of OF/DH Pat Burrell will add a little more pop to their lineup, although it could sink their team batting average at the same time. The club also added a slew of pitchers including Lance Cormier, Jason Isringhausen, Joe Nelson and Brian Shouse, and acquired outfielder Matt Joyce from the Tigers in exchange for RHP Edwin Jackson.

Top Prospect: David Price, RHP
The Rays never seem to have a shortage of top prospects at their disposal and Price clearly tops a group that also includes RHP’s Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson. Some believe Price is the best pitching prospect in baseball and he should have gotten the opportunity to prove that this year at the big league level. But the Rays optioned the talented youngster to Triple-A Durham recently for reasons unknown to Price and the rest of the baseball world. Tampa could be regretting the decision if the Yankees and/or Red Sox take early lead in the highly competitive AL East.

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2009 MLB Preview: #28 Baltimore Orioles

Click Here to see Previews of all 30 MLB Teams

Offseason Movement: One of the busier teams this offseason, the Orioles acquired OF Felix Pie and LHP Rich Hill from the Cubs, while also adding free agents Ty Wigginton, Mark Hendrickson, Cesar Izturis, Gregg Zaun, Ryan Freel, John Parrish, David Pauley, Chris Gomez, Chad Moeller and Japanese pitcher Koji Uehara.

Top Prospect: Matt Wieters, C
Wieters isn’t only the best prospect in Baltimore – he’s the best prospect in baseball. He can flat out rake and once he gets some experience under his belt, he could be a .300 hitter who produces 12-15 home runs a year. Unfortunately, Baltimore fans that were hoping to see him play early this season will have to wait. Wieters is expected to start the first two months in the International League, but could be called up before the All-Star Break with the O’s not expected to be in contention. Some have compared Wieters to Joe Mauer and Mike Piazza.

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Appreciate how the Rays got here

Tampa Bay RaysForget the magical, out-of-nowhere season for just a second. Instead, take a moment to appreciate how the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays got here.

No big name free agents. No blockbuster trades. No big payroll. The Rays’ built their success through years of phenomenal drafting, patience, and unlike most MLB teams, had the foresight to resist overspending on overpriced talent.

The Rays’ roster is littered with examples of how a baseball team should build success.

Take Matt Garza, the starting pitcher who limited the Red Sox to just two runs in 13 innings in the ALCS. He was the top prospect in the Minnesota Twins’ organization entering the 2007 season, and the 21st-best prospect in Major League Baseball according to Baseball America. But he couldn’t crack the Twins’ starting rotation out of spring training and the team began to grow impatient. The Twins felt that they could get a quality bat in return for their star prospect, and they eventually did.

In the 2008 offseason, Minnesota packaged Garza along with Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan, and sent them to Tampa for Delmon Young, Jason Pridie and Brendan Harris. And while Garza only had a smattering of success in the regular season this year (he went 11-9 with a 3.70 ERA), he saved his best work for Boston in the postseason and wound up earning the ALCS MVP.


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Rays to face Phillies in 2008 World Series

Matt GarzaWith their 3-1 victory over the Boston Red Sox in Game 7 Sunday night, the Tampa Bay Rays are going to the World Series for the first time in the history of their franchise.

There was no choke from the bullpen this time as reliever David Price struck out J.D. Drew with the bases loaded to end the top of the eighth, then (after putting the first guy on) retired the BoSox in the ninth. Starter Matt Garza was amazing for Tampa, limiting Boston to just one run on two hits. It was the second time he baffled the Red Sox this series, holding them to just two runs in 13 innings.

I’ll take full credit/blame for Tampa Bay’s victory. I wrote after Boston’s Game 6 victory that the Red Sox were a virtual lock to head to the World Series. As I wrote in that post, I wasn’t necessarily rooting against the Red Sox, but I appreciate how the Rays built their team over the year. They’ve done it with youth and through their farm system and they should be commended for doing so in a league that sometimes rewards teams for being able to spend the most money.

A Tampa-Philadelphia World Series certainly isn’t the most glamorous matchup the postseason could have produced (and it’s no doubt killing the TV networks), but the Rays were the story of the year and it’ll be exciting to see if they can cap this amazing season off by winning a championship.

Red Sox will complete the comeback now

Boston Red SoxThe Boston Red Sox are going to the World Series. There’s just no doubt about it. And yes, this isn’t a misprint; they still need one more victory in Game 7 to officially close out the Tampa Bay Rays.

But after their 4-2 win in Game 6 and their dramatic come-from-behind win in Game 5, is there any doubt in anyone else’s mind that the BoSox are heading back to the World Series?

Boston has all the momentum and postseason experience to close the Rays out. Tampa has had two opportunities (none bigger than when they led 7-0 in the top of the seventh in Game 5) to put the nail in the coffin and they couldn’t do it. What makes anyone thing they’ll do it Sunday night against Jon Lester? What, because they absolutely hammered Lester in Game 3? Because Matt Garza has been the rock of the rotation outside of Scott Kazmir? None of that matters when your back is against the wall and you have to fight your way out of a hole. (And make no mistake about it – the Rays are in a hole. Even though the series is tied, they’ve lost all the momentum after their Game 5 loss.)

As a neutral fan, I’d love to see the Rays win. I’d rather see the club that built their team through the draft and farm system go to the WS than the one that bid over $51 million just to talk to a pitcher, than another $52 million just to sign him. Not that Boston doesn’t, but Tampa deserves to play for a championship after being the doormats in the AL East since their existence. But Boston did it to the Yankees, then again last year to the Indians and now they’ll do it against the Rays. They’ll complete their comeback and face the Philadelphia Phillies in this year’s Fall Classic. There’s no doubt about it.

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