DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- The Giants and Eli Manning had the game I thought they would last week in Arizona. Manning threw three touchdown passes but he was also picked off three times as the Giants started slow and finished poorly. Of course, Eli wasn’t the only reason the G-Men dropped a game they simply had no business losing. Their defense couldn’t stop a Seattle offense that has suddenly started to hit their stride after staging a dramatic comeback in the second half last week against Atlanta. Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst and Marshawn Lynch tuned up New York’s defense for 424 total yards. What’s most remarkable about the Seahawks’ 36-25 win is that the Hawks fumbled twice in New York territory. This could have been an even bigger blow out.

- The Steelers winning a home game against the Titans hardly constitutes a “Didn’t see that coming” moment. That said, this was a Pittsburgh team that didn’t have Casey Hampton, James Harrison, Aaron Smith, Chris Kemoeatu, or a fully healthy Ben Roethlisberger. Considering how good Tennessee’s defense has been this season, it was rather surprising to see Big Ben (who threw five touchdown passes) and Pittsburgh bully the Titans for four quarters. It appears those claims about the Steelers being finished were greatly exaggerated.

- Much like the Steelers’ win over the Titans, it’s hardly surprising that the Raiders traveled to Houston and beat the Texans. This isn’t the same Oakland team that was pathetic four or five years ago. That said, Al Davis just passed away yesterday and the Raiders took on a solid Texans team that just bullied Pittsburgh a week ago. Nobody would have been surprised if the Raiders’ hearts weren’t in it and left Houston without a win. But they played hard for four quarters, shut down Arian Foster, and won a huge road game to get to 3-2 on the season. Granted, Matt Schaub did throw an inexcusable interception at the end of the game and the Texans were without Andre Johnson. But “Just win baby?” Absolutely.

AND YOU CALL YOURSELF A PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL TEAM…

- Hey Andy Reid, this is why you don’t hire your offensive line coach as your defensive coordinator. I realize that’s kind of harsh because it’s not like Juan Castillo is the only reason the Eagles are now 1-4 after losing today in Buffalo. (After all, it’s not Castillo’s fault that Michael Vick is careless with the football or can’t manage a clock near halftime.) But there’s no way the Eagles’ defense should be this bad. I don’t want to take anything away from Buffalo because its offense can score on anyone. But Reid’s decision to hire Castillo looks like a massive miscalculation. MASSIVE.

- Mark Sanchez has to raise the level of his play if the Jets are going to succeed this season. For the past two years the Jets have relied on their rushing game and defense to make the playoffs, where Sanchez has been very good. But this year has had a different feel to it for New York. The defense hasn’t been as good and the ground game has been non-existent. Thus, 166 yards against one of the lowest ranked defenses in the league just isn’t going to cut it. He was very good on the 85-yard drive in the second half to cut New England’s lead to 27-21, but that was the only time he looked sharp all day. If Sanchez doesn’t start playing as well in the regular season as he does in the postseason, the Jets won’t make the playoffs this year. That’s just the bottom line for Rex Ryan‘s struggling team, which has lost three in a row after starting the year 2-0.

- What in God’s name was Matt Schaub thinking on the Texans’ final play? He could have waltzed into the end zone from inside the Raiders’ 5-yard line but he gave the game away instead by throwing an interception to Michael Huff. Schaub is going to think about that pass all week.

- Nobody saw them being blown out 48-3 but the Bucs’ loss to the 49ers was hardly surprising. Tampa certainly had some built in excuses coming into Sunday’s action (i.e. a short week, a cross-country trip), but I don’t think the Bucs were as good as their 3-1 record indicated. Their offense lacks explosion, their run blocking hasn’t been good, and opponents can take advantage of their pass defense just like Alex Smith (three touchdowns) and San Francisco did today. The Bucs’ run defense apparently wasn’t up to snuff either, as Frank Gore rushed for 125 yards on 6.3 yards per carry. At 3-2 Tampa is still in good shape but I don’t think this was a loss that Raheem Morris can just chalk up to a bad day. The Bucs have issues that need to be corrected if they want to keep pace with the Saints in the NFC South.

- The Panthers deserve more praise than criticism for hanging with the Saints today, but what was Ron Rivera and his coaching staff thinking when they took a timeout with two seconds remaining in the first half? The Saints were trying frantically to get their field goal team on the field and Carolina saved them the trouble by calling a time out. Naturally, John Kasay made the kick to give New Orleans a 20-13 halftime lead in a game they eventually rallied to win by? You guessed it: Three points.

- Considering how many issues the Vikings have had in the second half of games this year, one would have thought Leslie Frazier would have kept his foot on the gas towards the conclusion of the first half today against Arizona. But instead of trying to increase their lead by pushing the ball up field, Frazier and the Vikings were content with a 28-3 lead. They were promptly booed by the home crowd, which chanted Christian Ponder’s name heading into the locker room. Only the Vikings could make fans uneasy with a sizable lead.

- Peter King speculated on “Football Night in America” that Mario Williams “probably” tore his pectoral muscle in the Texans’ loss to the Raiders on Sunday. That would be a massive blow to a team that lost its best offensive player a week ago when Andre Johnson hurt his hamstring against the Steelers. Suddenly the AFC South looks like a crapshoot.

“CHAMPIONSHIP”…

- All week I wrote about how the Bills’ loss to the Bengals last Sunday was an aberration. They got caught with their pants down but they obviously learned from it. The Eagles made a ton of mistakes today but let’s not take credit away from a Buffalo team that everyone completely overlooked coming into the season. It wasn’t hard to figure that Fred Jackson would have a big day against Philadelphia’s pathetic run defense and that he did, rushing for 111 yards with a couple of good-sized runs. I’ll be honest, part of me has been waiting for the Bills’ play to fall off but I’m over that notion. This Buffalo team isn’t going anywhere.

- Bill Belichick works in mysterious ways doesn’t he? For weeks the Patriots have kept the ball in the air against opponents while BenJarvus Green-Ellis has largely been an afterthought in the offense. In fact, Stevan Ridley was starting to garner some attention has a better option than Green-Ellis in the ground game. Yet with the Jets in town today, Green-Ellis rushes for a career-high 136 yards and two touchdowns as the Patriots defeated their AFC East rivals, 30-21. Granted, Tom Brady (24-of-33 for 321 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) and the passing game was still highly active but the game was clearly on Green-Ellis’ shoulders. This is one of the many reasons why Belichick is so good. He doesn’t forget about any of his weapons and if he sees a weakness that he can exploit, he attacks it. He also knows how to feed the hot hand and he doesn’t over think the game as it plays out. Some may disagree but he has the best mind in football in my eyes.

- It’s not like I’m drinking the Kool-Aid, but I’ve been really impressed with the Bengals. Yeah, beating the Jaguars and their rookie starting quarterback isn’t earth-shattering news. But who does Cincinnati have starting under center? Andy Dalton, a rookie quarterback, whose main playmaker is a rookie receiver in A.J. Green who has received less attention than Julio Jones and yet is producing week in and week out. The Bengals showed a lot of poise down 20-16 in the fourth quarter on Sunday and rallying to beat the Jaguars. Who would have thought that Cincinnati would be 3-2 with the mess of an offseason they had?

- Championship? Not quite, but the Chiefs do have a pulse after winning their second straight game. Matt Cassel was outstanding in Kansas City’s comeback over Indianapolis, completing 21-of-29 passes for 257 yards and four touchdowns. I don’t want to get carried away after one game but this is the type of performance out of Cassel that shows people that he can be a serviceable starter.

- There’s no need to overreact to his performance today because he’ll probably go back to his inconsistent ways next week, but Alex Smith was very efficient in the Niners’ 48-3 win over the Bucs. It was nice to see him react to the pressure instead of lo0king for it and then making mistakes. He kept his eyes downfield, didn’t stare down receivers and finally played with a sense of purpose. It helped that Tampa’s pass rush is weak and Frank Gore was gashing the Bucs on the ground, but let’s give credit were credit is due. Smith was very good.

- The Giants deserve to be ridiculed for their embarrassing loss to the Seahawks but Victor Cruz was nearly unstoppable today. He turned his 11 targets into eight receptions for 161 yards and one touchdown, and made one of the best catches I’ve ever seen. Just think, we may have never seen what this kid could do had the Giants not suffered as many injuries to their receiving corps. Not that I want to see anyone get hurt but Cruz has been really fun to watch the past couple weeks.

Hey, I’m guilty of it. We’re all guilty of it. We see a player get seriously injured and one of the first statements out of someone’s mouth is, “This may be career-threatening.”

The latest example of this is Peyton Manning. He recently had his second neck surgery in less than five months and at least one clown in the media wrote last week about how the Colts may wind up with Andrew Luck in next year’s draft. We live in a world where present news is old news and everyone has a blog nowadays so getting a jump on a story often takes precedence. But the media (and fans too, because they’re just as guilty even though the media provides a nice patsy for them) could learn a thing or two about Manning’s situation from Tom Brady.

As I watched Brady carve up the Dolphins for 517 yards and four touchdowns on Monday night, I had to laugh thinking about Matt Cassel’s 2008 season. He was so good that year that some wondered if the Pats should trade Brady and go with the younger Cassel at quarterback.

The idea wasn’t that far-fetched either. At the time, there was no timetable set for Brady’s return after he had season-ending knee surgery earlier in the year. Nobody knew when he would return in ’09, or if he would return at all. Cassel was also set to become a free agent, which further complicated the situation. If the Pats traded him or allowed him to leave via free agency, they risked not having an experienced quarterback for 2009 if Brady couldn’t recover.

Brady was also 32 at the time and while guys like Kurt Warner, Kerry Collins and even Jeff Garcia proved that they could be effective past their 35th birthday, there was no guarantee that Brady would ever be what he was. It was an interesting time in New England and the media was having a field day with the possibilities.

But in hindsight, all of the Brady trade talk seems absolutely ridiculous now. First and foremost, the Patriots never gave any indication that they were willing to trade Brady. None at all, in fact. It was the media that continued to stir up controversy and while Cassel did lead the Chiefs to the playoffs last season, he continues to be a question mark for Kansas City.

Meanwhile, at 34-years old, Brady just turned in his best single-game performance in the last three seasons. Nobody is going to confuse Miami’s defense with the ’85 Bears but the Dolphins aren’t pushovers on that side of the ball either. It helped that they were winded all night but the bottom line is that Brady was marvelous.

That’s why the media needs to pump the brakes when it comes to Manning’s injury. Granted, we’re not comparing apples to apples because the two injuries aren’t the same. Brady dealt with a knee injury while Manning just had a one-level cervical neck fusion. Both injuries are gruesome, but we simply cannot compare them.

That said, Brady’s situation should give everyone a moment of pause when it comes to Manning. Maybe Peyton won’t play this season but it doesn’t mean his career is over. Before anyone knew the severity of Manning’s injury, it would have been difficult to find one person willing to say his career is winding down – even at 35. In fact, maybe in three years everyone will have forgotten that he even had two surgeries as he’s playing in his third or fourth Super Bowl. Who knows? Patience is the key at this point.

Just ask Tom Brady.

After tonight there are no more predictions, no more projections and no more speculation. After tonight, the NFL season will have begun and it’s time to put the pre–season prognosticating to rest and let teams settle things on the field.

But for one last time before the games start counting for real, let’s examine what could potentially trip up contenders in both conferences. Below are 16 postseason contenders for the 2011 NFL season, along with 16 questions that revolve around concerns that that team has heading into the new year.

Patriots: What about the last line of defense?
The Patriots did a fantastic job this offseason addressing their need for more pass-rushers. But Bill Belichick may have created another weakness by leaving himself awfully thin at safety with the release of veterans Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders. Granted, Meriweather was less than impressive a year ago and Sanders has been injury prone throughout the years. For Meriweather, he often took bad angles to the ball last season and was caught out of position numerous times throughout the year. But in releasing both he and Sanders, Belichick is putting a lot of faith in Patrick Chung and 2010 rookie free agent Sergio Brown to man both safety positions. If Chung and Brown stay healthy and hold their own, then Belichick will once again look like a genius in his personnel decisions. If they falter, it doesn’t appear as though Belichick has left himself with a plan B.

Jets: Can Sanchez step up in the regular season?
If Mark Sanchez played as well in the regular season as he has in the postseason then maybe the Jets wouldn’t have to win playoff games on the road every year. Sanchez did take a step forward in his development last year but his consistency week-to-week remains an issue. This is a Jets team that could contend for a Super Bowl berth but not if Sanchez doesn’t continue to raise the level of his play. The goal for Rex Ryan and his team shouldn’t be the Super Bowl: it should be supplanting the Patriots in the AFC East first. Then they can set their sights a little higher.

Colts: How long will Peyton be out?
There’s no bigger question that needs to be answered for the Colts. With Manning they’ll once again be favored to win the AFC South. Without him they’ll probably sink to the bottom of the division. Kerry Collins may be able to keep this team afloat for a game or two, but without Manning the Colts will inevitably fall over a 16-game season. Hopefully for Indy’s sake Manning will return in a few weeks and more importantly, he’ll be close to 100-percent healthy. But there are reports that he’ll be out “a while” and if so, the next team on this list will have its shot to win the AFC South crown.

Texans: Is the defense really fixed?
Regular readers know that I fully believe this is the Texans’ year. I love the hiring of Wade Phillips, who has a long history of turning teams around in his first year as either head coach or defensive coordinator. This team also went a long way in shoring up a weakness with the signing of free agent cornerback Jonathan Joseph. But question still remain on that side of the ball. Is Mario Williams a linebacker? Can Kareem Jackson make strides in his second year? Will the safety position be a spot opponents can exploit? Arian Foster’s hamstring is a concern, as is whether or not Matt Schaub is the right man to get this team over the hump. But if the defense hasn’t been fixed then it won’t matter how much Foster or Schaub contribute because the Texans will fall short of expectations once again.

Steelers: Will the offensive line hold Pittsburgh back?
Once again the Steelers’ offensive line is a concern heading into the season. Granted, it was also a concern when they won the Super Bowl a couple of years ago and it was a concern last season when they lost to the Packers in the title game. Thanks to Dick LeBeau’s defense and the steady play of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, this team always finds a way to overcome its shortcomings. That said, it’s often harder to stay on top of the mountain than it is to climb it and if there’s one spot opponents can exploit, it’s the Steelers’ O-line. (One could argue cornerback is another weakness of Pittsburgh’s, but it’s not a bigger concern than the O-line.)

Ravens: Can they beat the Steelers?
The only time the Ravens beat the Steelers last year was when Ben Roethlisberger was suspended early in the season. Otherwise, Baltimore played its AFC North rivals close but it can’t seem to get over the hump. Just like the Jets in the AFC East when it comes to the Patriots, before the Ravens can even think about reaching the Super Bowl they need to beat the Steelers first.

Chargers: Can they start fast for once?
This isn’t your brother’s Chiefs and Raiders that the Chargers now have to deal with. Kansas City is defending AFC West champions and basically returns the same team it won with last year, while Oakland is steadily improving. It used to be that the Bolts could sleepwalk through their first-half schedule before winning 10-straight games to cruise into the playoffs. But now a slow start could be detrimental to their postseason goals. The Chargers need to start fast for a change because the Chiefs and Raiders aren’t pushovers anymore.

Chiefs: Can they win against a tougher schedule?
The Chiefs proved last year that they’re a better team than people expected, but they also had a manageable schedule. This year, they face the Patriots, Steelers, Bears, Jets and Packers in five straight weeks during the second half of the season and won’t sneak up on anyone after winning the AFC West. It’s time to see if Matt Cassel and Co. can raise their game now that opponents will see them coming.

Cowboys: Will the offensive line and cornerback positions hold up?
Rookie offensive tackle Tryon Smith and cornerback Michael Jenkins both hurt their knees earlier this week and may not play in the Cowboys’ opener versus the Jets on Sunday night. Making things worse, Terence Newman has already been ruled out with a groin injury so an already worrisome spot for Dallas (secondary) just became an even bigger concern. I envision a bounce back year for the ‘Boys, but not if the offensive line can’t keep Tony Romo upright and not if the secondary can’t matchup up with the Eagles, Packers, Saints and Falcons (four of the best offenses in the conference) in the NFC.

Eagles: Can Vick live up to the expectations?
In 2004, there were low expectations for the Falcons because Michael Vick was coming off a devastating leg injury that cost him most of his 2003 season. So naturally Vick led Atlanta to the NFC title game that year. In 2005 when expectations were high, Vick was ONE OF the reasons the Falcons didn’t even make the playoffs. In 2006 when observers were predicting a bounce back year for Atlanta, again Vick and the Falcons fell short of expectations. Last year when Kevin Kolb was supposed to be the starter and Vick a gimmick in Andy Reid’s offense, Vick took the Eagles to new heights. Now, led by Vick, the Eagles are considered Super Bowl contenders. My point is that when expectations are high, Vick often falls well short. Is he an exceptional athlete? No f’n doubt. Can he win? Yes. Can he win a NFC title game with everything on the line? I’m not so sure and quite frankly, I lean more towards “no” after the way he’s been talking about how no defense can contain him. Vick can get awfully complacent when he wants to be.

Packers: Can the Pack repeat?
There’s really no other question, is there? Not since the 2004 and 2005 Patriots has a team won back-to-back Super Bowls in the NFL. And not since the 1993/94 Cowboys has a NFC team won back-to-back titles. Just like the Saints in 2009, the Packers have a great opportunity to end the NFC’s long drought but it’s incredibly difficult to repeat. For whatever reason, things are always just a little bit off in that next year and usually, injuries are a concern. (Although injuries were a concern for the Packers last year and they still won, so maybe this will be the year the NFC finally repeats again.)

Bears: Will the O-line and receivers be their Achilles’ heel?
The Bears’ offensive line was a disaster in its first preseason game this season, allowing nine sacks against the Bills. But it got better over the course of the next two weeks and seems less of a concern heading into the season than it did at the start of camp. That said, it’ll be interesting to see how guys like J’Marcus Webb and Gabe Carimi fare when teams start to game plan to stop the Bears’ offense. The same can be said for Chicago’s receiver corps, which was highly unimpressive in preseason. How the Bears believe Roy Williams is a starter is behind me, but Jerry Angelo will reap what he sows there. I have a hunch we could see a repeat of Jay Cutler’s 2009 season when his sack and interception totals were both high. And just like in ‘09, it won’t be all his fault like it’s portrayed in the media.

Falcons: Can Ryan win a playoff game?
The Falcons have a couple of question marks heading into the season, mostly on the defensive side of the ball. But they pale in comparison to whether or not Matt Ryan can take that next step, which includes winning a postseason game. He’s 0-2 in the playoffs, which hardly makes him Peyton Manning before the latter won a Super Bowl in Indy. But at the same time, Ryan needs to be the reserve of Mark Sanchez in that he needs to be just as good in the postseason as he is in the regular season. The Falcons are expected to unshackle him this season, which means putting him more in the no huddle (an offense he’s excelled in since his rookie year) and allowing him to throw more vertically down field (something that he’s struggled to find consistency with). With so many weapons around him in the offense, it’s time for Ryan to emerge as one of the elite.

Saints: Will the linebackers be a weakness once again?
The Saints did a fantastic job bolstering their defensive line this offseason with the signings of Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers, which should help Jonathan Vilma do a better job against the run than he did a year ago. Vilma was often taken out of the play because his defensive tackles didn’t protect him. That said, he also needs more help from his ‘backer mates. It’s puzzling why the Saints still feel that Scott Shanle is an every-down player when he’s proven otherwise for years. They’re also taking a huge risk assuming Will Herring can play every down when he was regulated to nickel duties in Seattle last season. This is a Super Bowl-caliber team but where the Saints can be had is at linebacker.

Rams: Can the Rams overcome a tough first-half schedule?
From my piece last week on the Rams: Have you checked out the Rams’ schedule this year? It’s freaking brutal. They open up at home against everyone’s chic pick the Eagles before heading to New York to play the Giants in Week 2. They come back to St. Louis for two home games and while one of those contests is a Week 4 matchup with the Redskins, the other is a Week 3 tilt against the Ravens. After they come back from their BYE in Week 5, the Rams travel to Green Bay and Dallas before hosting the Saints in Week 8. So in six of their first seven games they play the entire NFC East, the defending Super Bowl champions, and the team that won it all in 2009 and might be poised to do it again in 2011. Thanks, schedule makers!

Cardinals: Can Kevin Kolb play?
With how brutal the Rams’ schedule is, the Cardinals can win the NFC West if Kolb resembles even an average NFL quarterback. Obviously Arizona has other concerns, just like every team in the division. But the Kolb acquisition can put this team back on top in the West if he can show a smattering of consistency from week-to-week. That said, nobody knows whether or not this guy can even play. He looked good at times in Philadelphia but blew his chance to be a full-time starter last season. Time will tell if he’ll make the difference or not in the desert.

Here are six quick-hit observations from the Ravens’ 30-7 trouncing of the Chiefs in Sunday’s Wildcard Round.

1. Baltimore’s defense once again comes to play.
What’s the quickest way to quiet a hostile crowd? How about giving them nothing to celebrate. Outside of Jamaal Charles’ 41-yard touchdown run in the first quarter, the Chiefs could do nothing offensively. The talk coming into this game was how KC could take advantage of Baltimore’s secondary but all the Ravens did was shut down the Chiefs’ vertical passing game (did anyone tell Dwayne Bowe what time the game started?) and force five turnovers. Matt Cassel’s protection wasn’t great but it’s not like he had anywhere to go with the ball either. Every time he looked downfield, a Baltimore defender was blanketing one of his outside receivers. How dominant was the Ravens defense on Sunday? They held the Chiefs to eight first downs and only 53 yards passing. Unreal.

Bonus observations:

- What a hit by Ed Reed on Dexter McCluster in the second quarter to force a punt after the Chiefs had reached midfield. That hurt me on my couch.

- The Ravens’ defenders have to stop trying to lateral the ball back to teammates after interceptions. I know sometimes they wind up getting more yards and it makes for a nice highlight, but Haruki Nakamura almost cost his team points by foolishly trying to flip the ball back to a teammate after a pick on the first drive of the second half. Talk about a momentum killer.

2. This loss isn’t on the Chiefs’ defense.
Kansas City may have given up 30 points but it’s hard for a defense to stop any offense when it’s on the field for the entire game. By the time the Ravens put together that 10-minute scoring drive in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs’ defense was gassed. KC’s offense couldn’t sustain drives and even worse, they turned the ball over five times. In the second quarter, the Chiefs did a nice job by forcing a three-and-out following a turnover. In the first half, they also did well taking away the Ravens’ vertical passing game because Joe Flacco really didn’t have anyone to throw to down field. But as the game wore on and as they got more tired, the Ravens were able to methodically drive up the field and take time off the clock. Romeo Crennel’s unit did all it could but in the end, it needed more help from Charlie Weis’ offense.

3. Speaking of which…Weis’ announcement hurt the Chiefs offensively.
In two games since news broke that offensive coordinator Charlie Weis was leaving Kansas City for the same position at the University of Florida, the Chiefs scored a total of 17 points in back-to-back home losses. Even though Todd Haley and the players said otherwise, the news proved to be a distraction. It had to be. No matter if your team won the Super Bowl or lost in the first round, your playcaller was gone. All the credit in the world goes to the Ravens for completely taking away the Chiefs’ vertical passing game and forcing five turnovers. But it makes you wonder whether or not Kansas City’s offense would have had more success had everything been status quo with their offense heading into the playoffs. Obviously Weis isn’t the reason the Chiefs lost, but his offense certainly didn’t help their cause.

4. Flacco has developed into a highly effective signal caller.
Joe Flacco has been impressive from the moment he was drafted in the first round in 2008. But in his third season, he’s really starting to become something special. He fumbled twice and took a couple of sacks, but he also completed 25-of-34 passes for 265 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions on Sunday. The two fumbles hurt (one he lost and the other was recovered but cost the Ravens a chance for six points instead of three), but for the most part he didn’t do anything to hurt his team. The Chiefs did a great job of taking away his deep options in the first half but instead of getting frustrated because he couldn’t take shots downfield, he took what Kansas City gave him. Countless times he found Todd Heap and Ray Rice underneath and kept drives alive by throwing for first downs. And speaking of which, how good was Heap? Every time the Ravens faced a third-and-whatever, Heap was there to make a first down grab. After years of struggling with nagging injuries, he still proves to be a solid playmaker.

5. Chiefs were hosed on a couple of calls.
I try not to make a big deal about the refs because calls usually have a way of evening out for teams over the course of a season. But the penalty Tamba Hali received for unnecessary roughness when he hit Flacco below the waist was questionable. Hali technically hit Flacco in his knee, which is enough to throw the flag, I understand. But Flacco should win an Oscar for the way he crumpled to the turf in pain. I need to see another replay, but it almost looked like Hali was blocked into Flacco, too. Also in the fourth, the illegal contact penalty on safety Eric Berry that moved the ball to the KC 12-yard-line was questionable as well. First of all, I don’t know if the ball was technically catchable and it looked like there was contact on both sides. That’s one where the refs just have to let the players play. Of course, the refs weren’t the reason the Chiefs lost this game. The Chiefs were the reason the Chiefs lost this game. When you turn the ball over five times and only gain eight first downs, you deserve to lose.

6. What’s next?
While KC heads home after yet another postseason loss (they haven’t won a playoff game since January of ‘94), the Ravens will play the Steelers for the third time this season. In the first game, the Ravens rallied late in the fourth to win 17-14 in Week 4 and then coughed up a potential victory in Week 13 when the Steelers rallied to win 13-10 in Baltimore. These two teams know how to get after each other and it’s sure to be a great game.

Well, I’m pretty sure the announcement for NFL MVP comes down this weekend, so let me begin by saying that I was not influenced by anything that I read when making these picks…..

1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots—Brady, who is going to run away with this award, played about half a game last Sunday, and still threw for 199 yards with 2 TDs and 0 picks. He hasn’t thrown an interception since like early October.

2. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles—Vick did Brady a favor by not being in the lineup against Dallas in Week 17, but he and his coach know what’s more important, and that is for him and some nagging injuries, resting up for the Packers.

3. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—He wound up third in yards (4620) and tied for second in TDs (33) but uncharacteristically threw for 22 interceptions.

4. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—4700 yards, 33 TDs, 17 picks. But most impressive is the way Peyton led his team to the postseason when things looked bleak.

5. Matt Cassel/Jamaal Charles/Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs—Cassel had a dreadful game in Week 17, but we stand by the fact that this was a trio that helped a young KC team win their division and a 4-seed.

6. Arian Foster, Houston Texans—Not only did he lead the league in rushing (1616 yards), but Foster added a whopping 66 receptions for 604 more yards—giving him 2220 yards from scrimmage and 18 TDs.

7. Matt Ryan/Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons—Well, at 13-3, someone had to be good for them to get there, especially with all of those come from behind wins.

8. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers—Finished with 3922/28/11 in 15 games, but what counts is leading his team to the postseason berth they deserve.

9. Clay Matthews, Green Bay Packers—If they could do last year’s draft over again, do you think Matthews would still be picked at #26?

10. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers—You know, he led the NFL in passing yards (4710) and had 30 TDs with 13 interceptions. He didn’t have Antonio Gates for a while, and he had Vincent Jackson for maybe two games. That’s why we can’t discount Rivers’ numbers.

11. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Bucs—We had to add one more. This kid is going to be a star. Oh wait, he already is. Freeman started every game and wound up with 3451 passing yards with 25 touchdown passes and just 6 interceptions. By comparison, Eli Manning had more than FOUR times as many picks.

Here’s some fade material for your NFL weekend…

Saints @ Seahawks, 4:30PM ET, Saturday
I don’t have the stones to predict an outright win for the Seahawks and even if I did, I wouldn’t want to be accused of going against the grain just for the sake of going against the grain. Plus, I don’t think Seattle has enough weapons to slow down Sean Payton’s offense for four quarters. That said, I love the 10.5 points here. When I first saw the spread for this matchup, I racked my brain trying to figure out if I had ever seen a road team lay that many points in a playoff game before. I couldn’t think of one because there hasn’t been. The Seahawks are the biggest home underdog in NFL playoff history. Look, this isn’t college football. It’s hard enough for a home team to cover as a double-digit favorite in the NFL, let alone a road team to cover such a large spread. And considering the Saints won’t be able to run the ball, the Seahawks should be able to keep this game somewhat close. Seattle is still one of the toughest environments to play in – I don’t care how poorly the Seahawks are performing. This one will be much, much closer than most people think.
THE PICK: SEAHAWKS +10.5

Jets @ Colts, 8:00PM ET, Saturday
By now, everyone is aware of the hold Peyton Manning has on Rex Ryan. He’s 5-1 against Ryan-led defenses and has thrown for 1,513 yards and 12 touchdown passes to only two interceptions. That said, I think the Jets will control the tempo of this game from the start and leave Manning on the sidelines. The best way to beat Peyton is to limit his opportunities to beat you. You’re never going to be able to completely shut him down (even in his four-interception game against the Chargers he still tossed two touchdown passes), but allowing him to speed up the tempo of the game is forbidden. He wants to have the ball in his hands so that he can attack your defense. Therefore, the Jets have to run the ball with success and grind the tempo of this game to a screeching halt. I expect this game to be boring and if it is, the Jets win outright.
THE PICK: JETS +2.5

Ravens @ Chiefs, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
I’ve done a complete 180 on this game in the past couple of hours. At first, I was sold on the Ravens walking into Arrowhead and running all over a Kansas City team that looked so hapless against the Raiders last Sunday. But I think what happened last week is that the Chiefs got caught looking ahead. Even though the No. 3 seed was still on the line, they had nothing else to play for at that point and the Raiders took it too them. I expect Matt Cassel to play much better this Sunday and assuming he’s recovered from whatever illness he had earlier in the week, Dwayne Bowe should play better as well. Here’s the deal though: I only like the Chiefs if the line rises from 3 to 3.5 or greater. I think this is a three-point game either way and with the way the public is hammering the Ravens right now (the line opened at 2.5 and now it’s up to 3), I think by kickoff on Sunday the line could be as high as 3.5 or even 4. If that’s the case, given me the home dog.
THE PICK: CHIEFS +3

Packers @ Eagles, 4:30PM ET, Sunday
Call me Joe Public on this one. The Eagles are favored but they’re not getting a lot of public backing because of their two-game losing streak. The Packers, on the other hand, have won two in a row and have already beaten the Eagles in Philadelphia earlier once this year (27-20 in Week 1). I don’t think Michael Vick is 100% healthy like he says he is and I’ve been waiting all season for “MV7” to have one of those games like he used to in Atlanta where the wheels come off. The Monte Kiffin-led Bucs used to shut him down every year by spying him and disguising where their blitzes were coming from. Dom Campers is a smart coordinator and if Philadelphia’s O-line doesn’t figure out how to block Clay Matthews, then Vick is in for a long afternoon. One last thing to chew on: Vick generally struggles in cold-weather games. He struggled against Minnesota and Chicago this year and while he did produce that thrilling comeback at the new Meadowlands in Week 15, the Giants had completely shut him down until the final seven minutes of the game. If you think back to early in his career, he beat the Packers in the playoffs at Lambeau Field in 2002 but then threw two costly interceptions the following week to lose to the Eagles in the Divisional Round. In 2004, he lost again to Philadelphia in the Divisional Round and in 2005, he lost to the Bears on a frigid Sunday night in Chicago in Week 15. (I should know how cold it was because I was there that night.) Those were all cold-weather games and outside of the miracle at Lambeau, they were all Vick-led defeats.
THE PICK: PACKERS +2.5

Here are three quick-hit observations from the Raiders’ 31-10 upset over the Chiefs on Sunday.

1. The Chiefs just did themselves a huge disservice.
Coaches and players always say that it doesn’t matter who they play in the playoffs. “We’ll take on anyone – we don’t care,” is what they’ll say. With this loss, the Chiefs will play the Ravens next weekend instead of the Jets (assuming the Colts beat the Titans later this afternoon). Sorry, but that’s a huge difference. The Jets’ pass rush has been non-existent since earlier in the season and Mark Sanchez is playing with a torn shoulder. The Ravens, on the other hand, can get after the quarterback, have the better quarterback and proved last year in Foxboro that they don’t mind playing on the road in the postseason. Get a Chief liquored up enough and I bet they’d tell you they’d rather face the Jets next week rather than Baltimore.

2. Did Charlie Weis already leave for Florida?
That looked like the Kansas City offense from earlier this season. In their final tune up before the playoffs, the Chiefs’ offense was held to 10 points, was limited to 201 total yards (including just 86 through the air) and turned the ball over twice. They had zero rhythm, they couldn’t sustain drives and Matt Cassel was a disaster. It’s not fair to place all the blame on Weis because the players have to execute, but it makes you wonder if his head isn’t already in Gainesville after accepting Florida’s offer to become its next offensive coordinator.

3. Tom Cable should retain his job.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports that Cable is unlikely to return as head coach of the Raiders in 2011. Why? Oakland finished 8-8 and went undefeated (6-0) in division play this year. Despite having scattered talent, Cable didn’t have a lot to work with and Al Davis’ prized offseason acquisition, Jason Campbell, was highly inconsistent. Yet, they were in the playoff hunt into the final two weeks of the season. Maybe Davis will promote offensive coordinator Hue Jackson after the Raiders’ offense blossomed throughout the course of the year, but would Jackson provide an upgrade? For once, Davis should stay the course and provide his team with some stability at the head coach position.