Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- The Giants and Eli Manning had the game I thought they would last week in Arizona. Manning threw three touchdown passes but he was also picked off three times as the Giants started slow and finished poorly. Of course, Eli wasn’t the only reason the G-Men dropped a game they simply had no business losing. Their defense couldn’t stop a Seattle offense that has suddenly started to hit their stride after staging a dramatic comeback in the second half last week against Atlanta. Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst and Marshawn Lynch tuned up New York’s defense for 424 total yards. What’s most remarkable about the Seahawks’ 36-25 win is that the Hawks fumbled twice in New York territory. This could have been an even bigger blow out.

- The Steelers winning a home game against the Titans hardly constitutes a “Didn’t see that coming” moment. That said, this was a Pittsburgh team that didn’t have Casey Hampton, James Harrison, Aaron Smith, Chris Kemoeatu, or a fully healthy Ben Roethlisberger. Considering how good Tennessee’s defense has been this season, it was rather surprising to see Big Ben (who threw five touchdown passes) and Pittsburgh bully the Titans for four quarters. It appears those claims about the Steelers being finished were greatly exaggerated.

- Much like the Steelers’ win over the Titans, it’s hardly surprising that the Raiders traveled to Houston and beat the Texans. This isn’t the same Oakland team that was pathetic four or five years ago. That said, Al Davis just passed away yesterday and the Raiders took on a solid Texans team that just bullied Pittsburgh a week ago. Nobody would have been surprised if the Raiders’ hearts weren’t in it and left Houston without a win. But they played hard for four quarters, shut down Arian Foster, and won a huge road game to get to 3-2 on the season. Granted, Matt Schaub did throw an inexcusable interception at the end of the game and the Texans were without Andre Johnson. But “Just win baby?” Absolutely.

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Hey, I’m guilty of it. We’re all guilty of it. We see a player get seriously injured and one of the first statements out of someone’s mouth is, “This may be career-threatening.”

The latest example of this is Peyton Manning. He recently had his second neck surgery in less than five months and at least one clown in the media wrote last week about how the Colts may wind up with Andrew Luck in next year’s draft. We live in a world where present news is old news and everyone has a blog nowadays so getting a jump on a story often takes precedence. But the media (and fans too, because they’re just as guilty even though the media provides a nice patsy for them) could learn a thing or two about Manning’s situation from Tom Brady.

As I watched Brady carve up the Dolphins for 517 yards and four touchdowns on Monday night, I had to laugh thinking about Matt Cassel’s 2008 season. He was so good that year that some wondered if the Pats should trade Brady and go with the younger Cassel at quarterback.

The idea wasn’t that far-fetched either. At the time, there was no timetable set for Brady’s return after he had season-ending knee surgery earlier in the year. Nobody knew when he would return in ’09, or if he would return at all. Cassel was also set to become a free agent, which further complicated the situation. If the Pats traded him or allowed him to leave via free agency, they risked not having an experienced quarterback for 2009 if Brady couldn’t recover.

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After tonight there are no more predictions, no more projections and no more speculation. After tonight, the NFL season will have begun and it’s time to put the pre–season prognosticating to rest and let teams settle things on the field.

But for one last time before the games start counting for real, let’s examine what could potentially trip up contenders in both conferences. Below are 16 postseason contenders for the 2011 NFL season, along with 16 questions that revolve around concerns that that team has heading into the new year.

Patriots: What about the last line of defense?
The Patriots did a fantastic job this offseason addressing their need for more pass-rushers. But Bill Belichick may have created another weakness by leaving himself awfully thin at safety with the release of veterans Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders. Granted, Meriweather was less than impressive a year ago and Sanders has been injury prone throughout the years. For Meriweather, he often took bad angles to the ball last season and was caught out of position numerous times throughout the year. But in releasing both he and Sanders, Belichick is putting a lot of faith in Patrick Chung and 2010 rookie free agent Sergio Brown to man both safety positions. If Chung and Brown stay healthy and hold their own, then Belichick will once again look like a genius in his personnel decisions. If they falter, it doesn’t appear as though Belichick has left himself with a plan B.

Jets: Can Sanchez step up in the regular season?
If Mark Sanchez played as well in the regular season as he has in the postseason then maybe the Jets wouldn’t have to win playoff games on the road every year. Sanchez did take a step forward in his development last year but his consistency week-to-week remains an issue. This is a Jets team that could contend for a Super Bowl berth but not if Sanchez doesn’t continue to raise the level of his play. The goal for Rex Ryan and his team shouldn’t be the Super Bowl: it should be supplanting the Patriots in the AFC East first. Then they can set their sights a little higher.

Colts: How long will Peyton be out?
There’s no bigger question that needs to be answered for the Colts. With Manning they’ll once again be favored to win the AFC South. Without him they’ll probably sink to the bottom of the division. Kerry Collins may be able to keep this team afloat for a game or two, but without Manning the Colts will inevitably fall over a 16-game season. Hopefully for Indy’s sake Manning will return in a few weeks and more importantly, he’ll be close to 100-percent healthy. But there are reports that he’ll be out “a while” and if so, the next team on this list will have its shot to win the AFC South crown.

Texans: Is the defense really fixed?
Regular readers know that I fully believe this is the Texans’ year. I love the hiring of Wade Phillips, who has a long history of turning teams around in his first year as either head coach or defensive coordinator. This team also went a long way in shoring up a weakness with the signing of free agent cornerback Jonathan Joseph. But question still remain on that side of the ball. Is Mario Williams a linebacker? Can Kareem Jackson make strides in his second year? Will the safety position be a spot opponents can exploit? Arian Foster’s hamstring is a concern, as is whether or not Matt Schaub is the right man to get this team over the hump. But if the defense hasn’t been fixed then it won’t matter how much Foster or Schaub contribute because the Texans will fall short of expectations once again.

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Here are six quick-hit observations from the Ravens’ 30-7 trouncing of the Chiefs in Sunday’s Wildcard Round.

1. Baltimore’s defense once again comes to play.
What’s the quickest way to quiet a hostile crowd? How about giving them nothing to celebrate. Outside of Jamaal Charles’ 41-yard touchdown run in the first quarter, the Chiefs could do nothing offensively. The talk coming into this game was how KC could take advantage of Baltimore’s secondary but all the Ravens did was shut down the Chiefs’ vertical passing game (did anyone tell Dwayne Bowe what time the game started?) and force five turnovers. Matt Cassel’s protection wasn’t great but it’s not like he had anywhere to go with the ball either. Every time he looked downfield, a Baltimore defender was blanketing one of his outside receivers. How dominant was the Ravens defense on Sunday? They held the Chiefs to eight first downs and only 53 yards passing. Unreal.

Bonus observations:

- What a hit by Ed Reed on Dexter McCluster in the second quarter to force a punt after the Chiefs had reached midfield. That hurt me on my couch.

- The Ravens’ defenders have to stop trying to lateral the ball back to teammates after interceptions. I know sometimes they wind up getting more yards and it makes for a nice highlight, but Haruki Nakamura almost cost his team points by foolishly trying to flip the ball back to a teammate after a pick on the first drive of the second half. Talk about a momentum killer.

2. This loss isn’t on the Chiefs’ defense.
Kansas City may have given up 30 points but it’s hard for a defense to stop any offense when it’s on the field for the entire game. By the time the Ravens put together that 10-minute scoring drive in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs’ defense was gassed. KC’s offense couldn’t sustain drives and even worse, they turned the ball over five times. In the second quarter, the Chiefs did a nice job by forcing a three-and-out following a turnover. In the first half, they also did well taking away the Ravens’ vertical passing game because Joe Flacco really didn’t have anyone to throw to down field. But as the game wore on and as they got more tired, the Ravens were able to methodically drive up the field and take time off the clock. Romeo Crennel’s unit did all it could but in the end, it needed more help from Charlie Weis’ offense.

3. Speaking of which…Weis’ announcement hurt the Chiefs offensively.
In two games since news broke that offensive coordinator Charlie Weis was leaving Kansas City for the same position at the University of Florida, the Chiefs scored a total of 17 points in back-to-back home losses. Even though Todd Haley and the players said otherwise, the news proved to be a distraction. It had to be. No matter if your team won the Super Bowl or lost in the first round, your playcaller was gone. All the credit in the world goes to the Ravens for completely taking away the Chiefs’ vertical passing game and forcing five turnovers. But it makes you wonder whether or not Kansas City’s offense would have had more success had everything been status quo with their offense heading into the playoffs. Obviously Weis isn’t the reason the Chiefs lost, but his offense certainly didn’t help their cause.

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Well, I’m pretty sure the announcement for NFL MVP comes down this weekend, so let me begin by saying that I was not influenced by anything that I read when making these picks…..

1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots—Brady, who is going to run away with this award, played about half a game last Sunday, and still threw for 199 yards with 2 TDs and 0 picks. He hasn’t thrown an interception since like early October.

2. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles—Vick did Brady a favor by not being in the lineup against Dallas in Week 17, but he and his coach know what’s more important, and that is for him and some nagging injuries, resting up for the Packers.

3. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—He wound up third in yards (4620) and tied for second in TDs (33) but uncharacteristically threw for 22 interceptions.

4. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—4700 yards, 33 TDs, 17 picks. But most impressive is the way Peyton led his team to the postseason when things looked bleak.

5. Matt Cassel/Jamaal Charles/Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs—Cassel had a dreadful game in Week 17, but we stand by the fact that this was a trio that helped a young KC team win their division and a 4-seed.

6. Arian Foster, Houston Texans—Not only did he lead the league in rushing (1616 yards), but Foster added a whopping 66 receptions for 604 more yards—giving him 2220 yards from scrimmage and 18 TDs.

7. Matt Ryan/Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons—Well, at 13-3, someone had to be good for them to get there, especially with all of those come from behind wins.

8. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers—Finished with 3922/28/11 in 15 games, but what counts is leading his team to the postseason berth they deserve.

9. Clay Matthews, Green Bay Packers—If they could do last year’s draft over again, do you think Matthews would still be picked at #26?

10. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers—You know, he led the NFL in passing yards (4710) and had 30 TDs with 13 interceptions. He didn’t have Antonio Gates for a while, and he had Vincent Jackson for maybe two games. That’s why we can’t discount Rivers’ numbers.

11. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Bucs—We had to add one more. This kid is going to be a star. Oh wait, he already is. Freeman started every game and wound up with 3451 passing yards with 25 touchdown passes and just 6 interceptions. By comparison, Eli Manning had more than FOUR times as many picks.

Here’s some fade material for your NFL weekend…

Saints @ Seahawks, 4:30PM ET, Saturday
I don’t have the stones to predict an outright win for the Seahawks and even if I did, I wouldn’t want to be accused of going against the grain just for the sake of going against the grain. Plus, I don’t think Seattle has enough weapons to slow down Sean Payton’s offense for four quarters. That said, I love the 10.5 points here. When I first saw the spread for this matchup, I racked my brain trying to figure out if I had ever seen a road team lay that many points in a playoff game before. I couldn’t think of one because there hasn’t been. The Seahawks are the biggest home underdog in NFL playoff history. Look, this isn’t college football. It’s hard enough for a home team to cover as a double-digit favorite in the NFL, let alone a road team to cover such a large spread. And considering the Saints won’t be able to run the ball, the Seahawks should be able to keep this game somewhat close. Seattle is still one of the toughest environments to play in – I don’t care how poorly the Seahawks are performing. This one will be much, much closer than most people think.
THE PICK: SEAHAWKS +10.5

Jets @ Colts, 8:00PM ET, Saturday
By now, everyone is aware of the hold Peyton Manning has on Rex Ryan. He’s 5-1 against Ryan-led defenses and has thrown for 1,513 yards and 12 touchdown passes to only two interceptions. That said, I think the Jets will control the tempo of this game from the start and leave Manning on the sidelines. The best way to beat Peyton is to limit his opportunities to beat you. You’re never going to be able to completely shut him down (even in his four-interception game against the Chargers he still tossed two touchdown passes), but allowing him to speed up the tempo of the game is forbidden. He wants to have the ball in his hands so that he can attack your defense. Therefore, the Jets have to run the ball with success and grind the tempo of this game to a screeching halt. I expect this game to be boring and if it is, the Jets win outright.
THE PICK: JETS +2.5

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Here are three quick-hit observations from the Raiders’ 31-10 upset over the Chiefs on Sunday.

1. The Chiefs just did themselves a huge disservice.
Coaches and players always say that it doesn’t matter who they play in the playoffs. “We’ll take on anyone – we don’t care,” is what they’ll say. With this loss, the Chiefs will play the Ravens next weekend instead of the Jets (assuming the Colts beat the Titans later this afternoon). Sorry, but that’s a huge difference. The Jets’ pass rush has been non-existent since earlier in the season and Mark Sanchez is playing with a torn shoulder. The Ravens, on the other hand, can get after the quarterback, have the better quarterback and proved last year in Foxboro that they don’t mind playing on the road in the postseason. Get a Chief liquored up enough and I bet they’d tell you they’d rather face the Jets next week rather than Baltimore.

2. Did Charlie Weis already leave for Florida?
That looked like the Kansas City offense from earlier this season. In their final tune up before the playoffs, the Chiefs’ offense was held to 10 points, was limited to 201 total yards (including just 86 through the air) and turned the ball over twice. They had zero rhythm, they couldn’t sustain drives and Matt Cassel was a disaster. It’s not fair to place all the blame on Weis because the players have to execute, but it makes you wonder if his head isn’t already in Gainesville after accepting Florida’s offer to become its next offensive coordinator.

3. Tom Cable should retain his job.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports that Cable is unlikely to return as head coach of the Raiders in 2011. Why? Oakland finished 8-8 and went undefeated (6-0) in division play this year. Despite having scattered talent, Cable didn’t have a lot to work with and Al Davis’ prized offseason acquisition, Jason Campbell, was highly inconsistent. Yet, they were in the playoff hunt into the final two weeks of the season. Maybe Davis will promote offensive coordinator Hue Jackson after the Raiders’ offense blossomed throughout the course of the year, but would Jackson provide an upgrade? For once, Davis should stay the course and provide his team with some stability at the head coach position.

So Michael Vick slipped a little on Tuesday night, which makes us feel better about keeping Tommy Brady (as Charlie Weis calls him) in the top spot.

1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots—Amazingly, Brady has thrown for an NFL record 319 pass attempts without an interception, going back to Week 6. So let’s review—3701 yards, 34 TDs (NFL high) and just 4 picks, and his team is 13-2 and in the fast lane in the AFC. Damn.

2. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles—Look, we can’t disregard what Vick has done this season, because it’s phenomenal. But he looked mortal against the Vikings, and also for 52 minutes against the Giants before that.

3. Matt Cassel/Jamaal Charles/Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs—This trio has led the Chiefs to the AFC West crown. Cassel has 27 TDs to 5 picks/Jamaal has 1835 all-purpose yards and Bowe leads all NFL receivers with 15 TDs. The league won’t view this as one person, but that doesn’t mean we can’t.

4. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—What, did you think the Saints were just going to go away? Not with this guy leading the team. But the 21 picks may hurt him in the voting.

5. Arian Foster, Houston Texans—This kid is just a beast week-in and week-out.

6. Matt Ryan/Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons—Sure, the Falcons are impressive, especially some of the late-game heroics, but losing at home to Saints hurt.

7. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers—Rodgers admitted that sitting out with a concussion allowed him to come back fresh in Week 16—to the tune of 404 yards and 4 TDs.

8. Clay Matthews, Green Bay Packers—Do you get the feeling you have to account for this dude as if he were Lawrence Taylor?

9. Donte Whitner, Buffalo Bills—136 total tackles (92 solo) with a sack, an interception, a forced fumble and 7 passes defensed. I know the Bills suck, but Whitner is a one-man wrecking crew.

10. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—Look who’s back, and he even showed he can run—in slow motion, but he can run.

I’ll be the first to admit that I thought the Chiefs would have collapsed by now and the Chargers would have overtaken the top spot in the AFC West. Kansas City has been in control of the division for most of the year but I’ve patiently waited for disaster to strike.

But it hasn’t. Perhaps I should have considered that their win over the Chargers in Week 1 wasn’t a fluke and this team is for real. But I didn’t. And they are.

Matt Cassel was brilliant in the Chiefs’ 34-14 win over the Titans on Sunday. He completed 24-of-34 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns, all while showing no ill effects from the appendectomy surgery he had three weeks ago. It’s amazing to think that at the start of the year, many people believed KC would have to search for a new quarterback in 2011 and now it appears that the Chiefs will only go as far as he takes them. Understandably, it took a while for him to get comfortable in Charlie Weis’ system but now that he is, the skies the limit for both him and KC. (It also doesn’t hurt that he has a couple of great weapons around him in Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe).

Granted, things could still turn sour for KC next week and seeing as how I have deemed them “for real,” the jinx has probably been set.

But as of this writing, the Chargers are losing at halftime to the Bengals, so it looks like the Chiefs are in good shape. If Cincinnati holds on, KC would win the AFC West for the first time since 2003. If San Diego mounts a comeback and wins, then the Chiefs would have to beat the Raiders next week or have San Diego lose at Denver.

Let’s assume for a second that the Chiefs do win the division and wrap up the No. 3 seed in the AFC. How far could this team go? Well, given how bad the Jets’ (who will have the No. 6 seed) defense has looked in recent weeks, it’s not a stretch to think that KC would move to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. And then, who knows? Nobody outside of the Patriots looks indestructible in the AFC so there’s a chance that this pesky Chiefs team could be the dark horse of the conference.

But first things first: they need to get in and then they can worry about seeding and opponents. Either way, the Chiefs continue to make noise.

Boy, this is becoming a two-man race, isn’t it? You could probably wrestle with the Brady/Vick debate for days, and the next two weeks will likely determine the outcome of that. But for now, we have to pontificate…..

1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots—Well, his team is 12-2 and he leads in QB rating (109.9) with a modest 3561 yards, and 31 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions. It’s hard to argue with that.

2. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles—That game against the Giants and that comeback against the Giants are hard for this Big Blue fan to bear (242 yards, 3 TDs, 1 pick, 130 rushing yards and one more TD), but it’s hard not to respect Vick’s season and his own personal resurgence.

3. Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs—First of all, dude was on the field like 8 days after having his appendix out. Not great stats (184 yards, 1 TD, one pick), but he led his team to a much-needed win and has done that all season.

4. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers—Imagine what Rivers could have done with a healthy Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates all season?

5. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons—His numbers are still modest, but he just keeps winning and has orchestrated quite a few late-game comebacks.

6. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—His team lost to the Ravens, but still a strong body of work in 2010 despite being under the radar.

7. Arian Foster, Houston Texans—Almost 1900 total yards and 15 total scores are making this guy a possible #1 fantasy pick in 2011.

8 Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons—Only 8 touchdowns, but 106 catches and 1284 yards both lead the NFL in a career year for Roddy.

9. Trent Cole, Philadelphia Eagles—10 more tackles against the G-men and the leader of a defense that has a lot of heart despite a ton of injuries.

10. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions—No TDs last week in Tampa, but 10 catches for 152 yards in an impressive win. For my money, Calvin might be the best receiver in the NFL.