Per ESPN…

Williams is expected to sign a five year, $37.5 million contract as early as Friday, according to the source. The deal also has some hard to reach incentives that could boost the value of the contract to $43 million.

I estimated Williams’s value to be in the $7-$8 million per year range, and it looks like the contract will be worth somewhere in the range of $7.5 million to $8.6 million per season, depending on those incentives.

Last season, the 23-year-old forward averaged 13.9 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, and improved his three-point accuracy from 10% to 36% year over year. I think the sense is that Williams is a bit of a disappointment since he was picked #2 overall in 2005 ahead of Chris Paul and Deron Williams, and isn’t on the same level as those guys. But he’s still very young and has improved his PER every year that he’s been in the league. He is also a very solid defender, which is an underrated characteristic in today’s NBA.

Yesterday, I ranked the top unrestricted free agents of 2009, but now it’s time to look at this summer’s crop of restricted free agents (RFA). Teams can sign an RFA to an offer sheet, then his team has seven days to match that offer to retain him. If the player doesn’t sign an offer sheet and can’t come to terms on a new contract with his current team, then he will play for a year for the qualifying offer and then become an unrestricted free agent the following summer.

For each player, I’ll provide his position, age, Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and an estimate of what kind of contract he’s likely to sign. They’re ranked in order of total value, which is based on overall talent, age, injury history and cost.

1. Paul Millsap, PF (24)
PER: 18.71
In his third year, this former second round pick had the best season of his career. He averaged 13.5 points and 8.6 rebounds, while shooting better than 53% from the field. While Carlos Boozer was out in December and January, the Jazz got a preview of what this kid can do when he gets starter’s minutes. He was a 17/11 guy during those two months, but the Jazz only went 11-13 in games in which Millsap played during that span. His camp expects a deal similar to the one David Lee is asking for, so something in the $10 million per season range. Is he worth it? Probably. And from the sound of it, the Jazz plan on offering him a deal that will keep him from testing the market. If he does explore his options, it may pay off as the Thunder and Pistons are rumored to have interest.
Value: $9.5 – $10.5 million per year

2. David Lee, PF (26)
PER: 19.07
GM Donnie Walsh said that the Knicks’ picking Jordan Hill in this year’s draft has nothing to do with Lee, but the two play the same position, so of course it’s going to have an effect on how the Knicks and Lee each view their relationship. The other issue is that two of the Knicks’ targets in 2010 are Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire might also play the same position as Lee, though Mike D’Antoni would likely play either at center, allowing Lee to play power forward. He gets most of his points off the glass, so he’d be a good fit with either of those guys. The Knicks are projected to have about $35 million in cap space heading into the summer of 2010 and whatever deal they sign Lee to will cut into that. If they want to keep Lee and sign two big-name free agents, then they’re going to have to rid themselves of either Jared Jeffries or Eddy Curry prior to 2010. I like Lee, but he’s not a guy that you can give the ball to on the block and expect him to score, and that limits his value somewhat as a big man. The Thunder, Kings, Grizzlies, Raptors and Pistons could all make a serious run at Lee, though anytime a team tries to poach a restricted free agent, it’s a delicate balance between offering him enough to convince the other team to let him go, while getting a reasonable deal at the same time.
Value: $9.0 – $10.0 million per year.

3. Ramon Sessions, PG (23)
PER: 17.65
Regular readers know that I love this guy. I’m a Bucks fan so I see more of their games than the average NBA fan. Trust me — Sessions is flying under the radar. Normally, I think the Bucks would match any offer up to the mid-level exception, but now that they drafted Brandon Jennings, they may deem it too much to pay for a backup point guard. But Sessions is no backup. Jennings is a few years away from being a dominant player, and there’s no guarantee he’ll develop, so the Bucks would be wise to keep the 23-year-old Sessions around. He had the 13th-highest PER amongst all point guards, and the 5th-highest amongst all point guards under the age of 26. Moreover, his +/- numbers are the best on the team for anyone who played more than 1200 minutes. I definitely think that’s worth the mid-level. The Grizzlies, Hawks and Blazers might be willing to pay more, who knows.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

4. Marvin Williams, F (23)
PER: 16.04
Williams is just 23, and averaged around 14/6 the last two seasons. He really improved his three point shot last year, nailing about 35% of his attempts (after shooting a woeful 10% the year before). His PER took a nice jump from 14.74 to 16.04, so he’s definitely developing, but what’s his upside? He’s a pretty good defender and he’s really young. In fact, he’s the complete package, but isn’t necessarily destined to be a star. He’s slated to make $7.3 million this season, and should probably sign an extension in that ballpark. The Kings, Raptors, T-Wolves and Blazers could use some help at small forward, so there may be a market if he and the Hawks can’t come to terms.
Value: $7.0 – $8.0 million per year

5. Josh Childress, SF (26)
PER: 18.00 (2007-08 season)
Childress, who spent the last year playing in Greece, could return to the NBA as a restricted free agent, but the general consensus is that he’s going to stay overseas. He’s a very good all-around player, but doesn’t have the upside of his former teammate, Marvin Williams, so this summer he’s probably a MLE-type player.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

6. Charlie Villanueva, F (24)
PER: 18.64
Charlie V performed admirably when Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut went out with injuries. In 47 games as a starting forward, he averaged 17.7 points and 7.3 rebounds, and shot 35% from long range. He’s a perimeter oriented power forward — sort of a poor man’s Rashard Lewis. This makes him an appealing option for the Cavs, who could use a guy like Villanueva to match up with Orlando. In fact, due to fiscal constraints, the Bucks may not even make the qualifying offer of $4.6 million that’s required to make Villanueva a restricted free agent. If they don’t, they’ll lose him with no compensation. He doesn’t play much defense, so I think someone will offer him the mid-level.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

7. Nate Robinson, G (25)
PER: 18.95
At just 5′9″, it’s not clear that Robinson is suited for a starting role. He’s a terrific scorer (17.1 ppg last season), but he shoots less than 44% from the field and less than 33% from long range. Even so, he had the 8th-highest PER in the league amongst point guards and set a career high with 4.1 assists per game. He’s not a pure point guard, which means he might not be long for New York — Mike D’Antoni likes a pass-first point guard running the show. Still, his terrific offensive skills and high energy make him a valuable reserve who can finish games given the right matchup. I think the MLE is a possibility.
Value: $5.0 – $6.0 million per year

8. Ray Felton, G (25)
PER: 13.80
Felton has been a 14/7 guy the last three seasons, but his shooting (41% from the field, 29% from long range) is fairly brutal. He’s a pretty good playmaker and his overall efficiency would benefit if he focused more on distribution than scoring. He spent much of last season playing out of position alongside D.J. Augustin in the backcourt, but given the right situation and the right guidance, he has the potential to be a very good point guard. His rep is bigger than his game right now, which might lead to a wake up call when it’s time to talk turkey.
Value: $4.5 – $5.5 million per year

9. Glen Davis, F (23)
PER: 10.77
Big Baby’s regular season efficiency was nothing to write home about but in 16 games a starter, he averaged 12.6 points and 5.6 rebounds, while shooting 48% from the field. With Kevin Garnett out for the postseason, David really stepped up his scoring, averaging 15.8 points and 5.6 rebounds in the playoffs. At 6′9″ and 289 lbs, I’d like to see better rebound numbers. He’s strong as an ox, but isn’t terribly quick and has short arms. (Hence, the nickname.) Is he a starter-quality power forward? Right now, I don’t think so. His regular season PER (10.77) is well below average, and one good run in the playoffs does not a career make. Davis peaked at the right time however, as some team will likely reward his efforts with a nice contract. I think it will fall below the MLE, but you never know.
Value: $4.0 – $5.0 million per year

10. Marcin Gortat, C (25)
PER: 17.04
Gortat is a beefy center, but doesn’t get much run playing behind Dwight Howard in Orlando. He’s pretty skilled in the post, though he gets most of his points on dunks since there is so much attention paid to the other Magic players. He’s a fringe starter at center, and that makes him a pretty valuable commodity. The Knicks are supposedly interested, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he signs a mid-level deal.
Value: $5.0 million – $6.0 million per year

Other notables: Channing Frye, Linas Kleiza, Leon Powe, Jarrett Jack, Shannon Brown, Hakim Warrick, Jamario Moon

Related content:

The Top Unrestricted Free Agents of 2009
Which NBA teams will have cap space this summer?
The Top 10 NBA Free Agents of 2010

The NBA free agency period starts July 1st, and as that date approaches I’ll preview this year’s free agent class in more detail. But for now, I’d like to take a look at which teams have the cap flexibility to be major players in free agency this summer. (Mind you, just because a team has cap space, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll use it. Just sayin’.)

Not familiar with the NBA salary cap? Here’s a quick primer…

1. The cap for the 2008-09 season was $58.7 million. The general consensus is that the cap will stay flat or decrease slightly. We’ll assume it sticks at $58.7 million.

2. If a team is over the cap, the only free agents they can sign are their own, unless they elect to sign a player to the mid-level exception (~$5.8 million per season), the bi-annual exception (~$2.0) or to a minimum contract. (The bi-annual exception may not be used in two consecutive years.)

3. If a team is under the cap, they can sign any free agent they want as long as they do not exceed the cap. They can also take on salary via trade up to the cap, so a team like the Grizzlies (with almost $20 million in cap space) could conceivably trade their first round pick to the Suns for Amare Stoudemire or to the Raptors for Chris Bosh.

Here’s a list of the bigger names in the free agent pool this summer:

Unrestricted: Carlos Boozer, Ben Gordon, Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, Andre Miller, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, Hedo Turkoglu, Allen Iverson, Mehmet Okur, Rasheed Wallace, Mike Bibby, Anderson Varejao, Grant Hill, Kyle Korver, Trevor Ariza, Brandon Bass, Chris Andersen, Zaza Pachulia, Chris Wilcox and Drew Gooden

Restricted: David Lee, Paul Millsap, Ray Felton, Josh Childress*, Marvin Williams, Glen Davis, Ramon Sessions, Charlie Villanueva, Nate Robinson, Leon Powe, Hakim Warrick, Linas Kleiza, Jarrett Jack and Shannon Brown

* It appears that if Childress does return to the NBA, the Hawks still hold his rights, so he would be a restricted free agent.

There are eight teams that project to have more than $5.8 million (the value of the mid-level exception) in cap space this summer:

Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Cap Space: $19.7 million
Memphis has been reluctant to spend for several years now and is probably one of the franchises that’s struggling the most in the current economy. I lived in Memphis for three years, and given its small size and overall lack of wealth, I always thought that it would struggle to support a professional sports team. With a core of Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies have to feel pretty good about what they have at off guard, small forward and center. The big decision this summer is what to do with restricted free agent Hakim Warrick. When dealing with bad teams, numbers can be deceptive, because no matter what, somebody has to score and rebound, right? Warrick’s PER (16.91) is #24 amongst power forwards, so ideally he’d be coming off the bench for a playoff team. The Grizzlies projected cap space assumes they make the qualifying offer to Warrick ($3.0 million). Memphis is one of those teams that could really use the services of a Carlos Boozer, David Lee or Paul Millsap, but in this economy, are the Grizzlies willing to make that kind of a commitment? They could try to make a run at Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire next summer, but the odds are long that either guy would want to play for the Grizzlies.

Detroit Pistons
Projected Cap Space: $19.6 million
Unless they’re thinking about keeping Rasheed Wallace around, the Pistons don’t really have any big decisions this summer when it comes to personnel already on the roster. The Chauncey Billups-for-Allen Iverson swap was designed to free up cap space and in those terms, it worked beautifully. Sure, the Pistons gave up any chance of a deep run in the playoffs by trading Billups away, but the writing was on the wall – i.e. the Pistons weren’t going to the Finals – so Dumars chose to start the rebuilding process earlier rather than later. Neither Iverson nor ‘Sheed are likely to be back, but Wallace has a better chance of returning, however slight. The Pistons appear to be building around Tayshaun Prince and Rodney Stuckey (and Rip Hamilton?), but those are complementary players, not franchise-types. Joe Dumars built a winner without a true franchise player before, and he can do it again. The Pistons need size. Keep an eye on the Jazz. If Boozer opts out, he could land in Detroit, but if he doesn’t, the Pistons could go after Paul Millsap since the Jazz would have a tough time matching a substantial offer.

Atlanta Hawks
Projected Cap Space: $17.8 million
Mike Bibby, Zaza Pachulia and Flip Murray are unrestricted free agents and Marvin Williams is a restricted free agent, so the Hawks could have a very different roster heading into next season. Both the Hawks and Bibby are saying the right things, but can the two come to terms on a fair deal? There’s no way that Bibby is worth what he made last season ($15.0 million), but how much is he willing to come down to return to Atlanta? Looking at this list, would there be another team wiling to offer him more than the mid-level? Memphis? Detroit? Toronto? Minnesota? Nope. Oklahoma City? Sacramento? Probably not. Portland? Maybe. The point is that in this economy, by playing hardball the Hawks should be able to re-sign him for a two-year deal averaging around $7 million per season. I’m not sure that he’s even worth that at this point in his career (remember – he’s 31), but if the Hawks want him back, they need to be careful not to overpay. Likewise, is Marvin Williams worth the $7.4 million it’s going to cost to keep him around for another season? He’s just 22 and already has the 13th-best PER amongst small forwards. Then there’s Josh Childress, who can return from Greece as a restricted free agent. With all these decisions and all this potential cap space, the Hawks promise to be one of the most interesting franchises to watch this summer.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected Cap Space: $17.1 million
With a young, improving core of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, as well as a likely top 5 draft pick, the Thunder seem primed for a good season. Westbrook is more of an off guard than a pure point, so they could use a lead guard, as well as some help on the front line. They could go after Boozer, Millsap or David Lee, and are one of the teams that could easily snatch Ramon Sessions away from my beloved Bucks. The question is whether they’ll go after inexpensive young guys that can grow with Durant and Westbrook (Lee, Millsap, Sessions) or go after an established star (Boozer, Kidd, Bibby, etc.) with the thinking that they’ll become instant contenders. With their cap space, the Thunder could afford to add two or three starter- or star-level players, or they could elect to bide their time and try to add a superstar next summer.

Sacramento Kings
Projected Cap Space: $13.7 million
The Kings have good cap flexibility, but have serious lack of talent. They have one star – Kevin Martin – who is locked up for the next four years at a pretty reasonable price. Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes have some upside, while Andres Nocioni and Francisco Garcia are decent role players. The Kings made the mistake in giving Beno Udrih a long-term deal, so now they have to pay him an average of almost $7 millon over the next four years. Ugh. All right, so how do they turn this thing around? First, they have to hit in the draft. Ideally, that means Blake Griffin, whom they can pencil in at power forward for the next five years. Then they would need to find a good young point guard (Sessions?) that can grow with the Kings’ young lineup. Throw in a value at small forward (Josh Childress, Marvin Williams, Trevor Ariza, etc.) and the Kings would be much better next season. Not “playoff” better, but they’d probably win 10-15 more games. Baby steps.

Toronto Raptors
Projected Cap Space: $11.6 million
What are the chances of Chris Bosh re-signing if the Raptors have another miserable year? By trading Jermaine O’Neal to Miami for Shawn Marion (and his expiring contract), the Raptors have some financial flexibility this summer. If Toronto were to sign a premier big man like Carlos Boozer, David Lee or Paul Millsap, they would improve their chances of winning this season (and keeping Bosh around) while also giving themselves some insurance if Bosh bolts. Toronto already has two of the most important pieces to winning in the NBA: (1) a good point guard in Jose Calderon and (2) a good big man in Bosh. But over the last couple of years they have struggled to find the right complementary pieces. O’Neal didn’t work out, but the Raptors were 10-6 over their last 16 games with Marion, so one option would be to bring the Matrix back at a discounted price. Another free agent to keep an eye on is Ben Gordon. With his ability to put the ball in the hoop, he would thrive in an up-tempo attack and could really take the pressure off of Bosh and Calderon. Besides, the Raptors need a shooting guard now that the 33-year-old Anthony Parker looks to be over the hill.

Portland Trail Blazers
Projected Cap Space: $9.8 million
The Blazers are unique on this list in that they are a playoff team that has some cap space, but they won’t have to use it to keep their core players in town. Portland could add a legitimate star-level player to a roster already loaded with talent. They are set on the wing with Brandon Roy, Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw, and are pretty strong up front with LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla, so the major need seems to be at the point where Steve Blake is more of a placeholder than the point guard of the future. Jerryd Bayless is also a possibility, but his playing time dried up as the Blazers got closer to the playoffs. There are a number of good point guards available – Jason Kidd, Andre Miller, Mike Bibby – or the Blazers could go younger and try to pry Ramon Sessions or Ray Felton away from the Bucks and Bobcats, respectively. Portland has some good mojo working, and the guys least likely to upset the apple cart are experienced, pass-first points like Kidd or Miller. The Blazers could offer them more than the mid-level, which gives Portland the inside track on either player (if they want it).

Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected Cap Space: $7.8 million
The T-Wolves actually look like they’re turning things around. They have an up-and-coming big man (Al Jefferson) and they hit in the draft, finding an efficient, heady power forward (Kevin Love). If I’m running this team – and I’m more qualified than Bill Simmons, who is campaigning for the position – I’d move Randy Foye to off guard and tell him to shoot 200-250 three-pointers per day this summer. Then I’d use my cap space to steal Ramon Sessions away from the Bucks. Mike Miller could play small forward for another season, so I’d use my draft pick on the best player available, preferably a shooting guard who could join Sessions and Foye in a three-guard rotation. Josh Childress and/or Marvin Williams would be a great fit, and might be had for the mid-level (or use the cap space on Childress/Williams and sign Sessions to the mid-level). I’d end up with a core of Sessions, Foye, Childress/Williams, Love and Jefferson – all under the age of 26. Like a fine wine, I’d wait a couple of years for this group to age, and add a piece here or there to complement this core. We’d be in the playoffs by 2011, I’m telling you…

With the trade deadline in the rear view mirror and players tied to their current teams at least until the summer, it’s a good time to take a look ahead at the free agent class of 2009. Given the state of the economy and how so many teams are saving up for the class of 2010, some are suggesting that this summer’s free agency could be a “nuclear winter” of sorts, no pun intended. The salary cap and luxury tax thresholds are likely to decline for the first time in years and that has GMs and owners around the league scrambling to cut salary where they can.

There are three types of free agents: players with early termination options (ETO) or player options (PO), restricted free agents and unrestricted free agents.

Players with ETOs or POs

This group includes Kobe Bryant, Jermaine O’Neal, Al Harrington, Jamal Crawford and Mehmet Okur, but it’s highly unlikely that any of these guys will hit the open market given the kind of money they’ll be making by extending their respective contracts. Of this group, Hedo Turkoglu, Anderson Varejao and maybe Carlos Boozer are the only big names that are likely to hit free agency. Boozer has already stated that he’s going to opt out, but he may decide against it if he doesn’t come back strong from his injuries. Turkoglu — the reigning Most Improved Player — is having another nice season, but he’s not playing quite as well as last year. Still, he can command more than the $7.3 million he’s due to make next season. Varejao could stay with the Cavs and make $6.2 million next season, but he and his agent (Dan Fegan) have been looking for more. Varejao wants a long term deal but it seems he and the Cavs disagree on how much he’s actually worth.

For the most part, guys in this group are going to be conservative and play out their contracts.

Restricted Free Agents

RFAs hardly ever change uniforms, but in this economic climate there are teams that are unlikely to match substantial offers for their restricted free agents. The other issue is that once a team signs a RFA to an offer sheet, the player’s team has a full week to match the offer. Most teams know instantly whether or not they’re going to match, but they take the full week so that the other team can’t make any other offers because its money is tied up in the offer sheet. The NBA should reduce this period to three or four days so that teams are more willing to make offers to RFAs. Or better yet, it should eliminate restricted free agency completely to avoid Josh Childress-type cases in the future.

(Stepping down from my soapbox…)

Anyway, the list of restricted free agents includes Childress, David Lee, Paul Millsap, Nate Robinson, Charlie Villanueva, Ramon Sessions (ESPN says he’s restricted though HoopsHype and ShamSports show Sessions as an UFA), Marvin Williams, Raymond Felton, Leon Powe and Linas Kleiza.

The Knicks can’t afford to keep both Lee and Robinson and sign LeBron or some other max-type free agent next summer, so if someone comes along and offers either player a substantial contract, it is unlikely that the Knicks will be able to match. Millsap played great in Boozer’s absence, and they are very similar players so it is unlikely that Utah can afford to keep both. Millsap looks like a potential All-Star and would be a cheaper option, but only time will tell if the Jazz have the balls to let Boozer walk.

Childress will probably return to the U.S. after a year playing in Greece. I suspect he’ll be a mid-level type guy, which increases the number of potential suitors as teams that are over the cap can still sign a player at the mid-level. The Bucks are in financial trouble and they need to get rid of Michael Redd or Richard Jefferson if they hope to keep both Sessions and Villanueva. Both players are having career years under Scott Skiles, but it’s unclear if the Bucks will be able to keep them. I’d expect Sessions to be a mid-level guy (and should be a solid starter for that price), while Charlie V might command a bit more. There are still questions about his heart, but if he’s thriving under Skiles, could he really be lacking toughness and drive? The Bucks have been hit by injuries to Redd and Andrew Bogut but are still holding onto the #8 playoff spot in the East, so they’d be wise to keep this core together if they can.

The Bobcats’ decision to draft D.J. Augustin made Raymond Felton expendable, so he could probably be had for the right price. I’m guessing that he’s a mid-level guy as well, though he and his agent will probably want more. Leon Powe and Linas Kleiza are both productive bench players and if the offer sheet is big enough, the Celtics and Nuggets (respectively) may decide not to match.

Unrestricted Free Agents

This group includes Ben Gordon, Lamar Odom, Shawn Marion, Allen Iverson, Ron Artest, Mike Bibby, Andre Miller, Jason Kidd, Rasheed Wallace, Trevor Ariza and Brandon Bass. Most of these players are older and on the decline, but they can still play. Veteran players in this group might be shocked by the kind of pay cut that they’re going to have to take in today’s climate. The days of 30+ year-old stars (not superstars) signing max or near-max deals are over, at least for a while. I bet all of these guys sign for less than $10 million per season. (I know…that’s peanuts, right?)

Gordon, Ariza and Bass are younger and could still be on the rise if they find the right team. Gordon seems to think he’s a starter and should be paid as such, but he’s small and doesn’t have a reputation for being a very good defender. He can really score though. If some team wants to pay him starter’s money, he’d be a good match to play alongside a bigger point guard who could cover the opponent’s off guard (Utah, Denver, Detroit?) or he needs to go to a team that doesn’t emphasize the defensive end.

Ariza continues to play well for the Lakers, but since he’s a much cheaper option than Odom, he’s probably going to be staying put. Bass had a terrific season two years ago, and is really coming on after a slow start this season. He’s just 23 and has some upside. I’d expect some team will sign him to a deal averaging in the $3-$4 million range, which would make him one of the best bargains of the summer.

So where will these players end up? Your guess is as good as mine. There are only a handful of teams — Atlanta, Detroit, Memphis (of course), Minnesota, Oklahoma City, Portland, Sacramento and Toronto — with the cap space (~$7 million or more) to sign a good player for another team, so I think there may be quite a few starter-level players/borderline stars signing mid-level deals this season. Playoff contenders that are over the cap won’t be able to pass up a good player for $5 million per season and there should be a number of guys that fit the bill this summer.

Here’s a quick list of the top 10 power forwards under the age of 26, ranked in the order of a combination of current performance and trade value (regardless of salary).

I’ll also list the player’s age and his Player Efficiency Rating. Keep in mind that I am ranking the player based on their listed position at ESPN. Maybe I’ll move some of these guys around the next time I publish these lists.

1. Chris Bosh, Raptors
Age: 24
PER: 22.67
Bosh has averaged at least 22 points and nine rebounds in each of the last four seasons. He shoots 50% from the field and 83% from the line, but I’d like to see more blocks (0.8) from a guy his size. Will he rendezvous with LeBron at MSG in 2010? They would make a devastating duo.

2. Josh Smith, Hawks
Age: 23
PER: 16.23
Smith is having kind of an off year so far as he works himself back from an ankle injury. It’s a tough call between Smith and the next guy on this list, but I have to go with J-Smoov due to his versatility.

3. LaMarcus Aldridge, Blazers
Age: 23
PER: 17.96
He’s not very strong down low, but for a big guy he can really shoot the ball. He loves the face up jumper, and looks to be a 17/7 guy for the foreseeable future.

4. Paul Millsap, Jazz
Age: 23
PER: 19.96
Millsap is averaging 18 points and 11 boards (shooting 57% from the field) filling in for the injured Carlos Boozer, which makes some wonder if the Jazz should bother to re-sign Boozer when he opts out after the season.

5. Michael Beasley, Heat
Age: 19
PER: 14.95
I see Beasley as more of a small forward, but he’s listed as a PF. He is averaging 14 points and five boards in 27 minutes. I’d like to see better assist (1.0) numbers, but that should come with time.

6. Marvin Williams, Hawks
Age: 22
PER: 15.74
Williams is another guy that can play either forward position. He has really improved his long-range accuracy this season (+29%), but is still scoring at about the same rate. With the departure of Josh Childress, I thought Williams was going to take a big step forward this season, but his numbers are pretty much the same across the board.

7. Charlie Villanueva, Bucks
Age: 24
PER: 17.49
Can Charlie V play for Scott Skiles? So far, the answer seems to be yes, even though Skiles prefers Luc Richard Mbah a Moute’s defense and rebounding. Villanueva is still a below average defensive player, but Villanueva can really light it up. He’s going to be a restricted free agent this summer, so it will be interesting to see what the Bucks do with him over the next 9 months.

8. Carl Landry, Rockets
Age: 25
PER: 19.19
For his minutes (21.3), Landry is one of the most productive big men in the game. He’s a great interior defender and his FG% is stellar (58%).

9. Brandon Bass, Mavericks
Age: 23
PER: 13.00
His biggest problem is that he plays the same position as Dirk Nowitzki. He’s strong as hell and has a nice face up game. It will be interesting to see how he flourishes once he’s somewhere where he’ll get 30+ minutes a game.

10. Kevin Love, Timberwolves
Age: 20
PER: 15.17
Granted, his 40% shooting is brutal, especially for a power forward, but Love is posting better than eight points and eight boards in just 24 minutes a game. With his passing ability, I thought that his assist numbers (1.2) would be better. Right now, it’s definitely looking like Memphis got the better of the Mayo-Love trade, but he should develop into a solid starting power forward.

So who am I missing? Before you jump all over me for leaving someone off the list, be sure to check the player’s age – all these guys are 25 or younger.

Other lists:

Top 10 Young Point Guards
Top 10 Young Shooting Guards
Top 10 Young Small Forwards

1. The Lakers are dominating, but Lamar Odom isn’t thriving off the bench.
The Los Angeles Lakers are 4-0 and have won those four games by an average of 20.8 points. Granted, they’ve already played the Clippers twice, but the Nuggets gave them a test in Denver. The Lakers are doing it with defense, holding opponents to just 39.3% shooting and 85.0 points per game. (The Lakers are second in the league in both categories.) The team is off to a quick start despite so-so play from Andrew Bynum (8.3 points and 9.3 rebounds) and Lamar Odom (10.0 points and 6.5 rebounds), who isn’t exactly tearing it up off the bench. His numbers are boosted by a pretty nice 15-point, nine-rebound effort against the Clippers last night. Those are kind of numbers that Odom should be posting on a regular basis. The Lakers are getting nice play from Trevor Ariza, who has produced 9.8 points and 4.3 rebounds in just 20.5 minutes of play. If he continues his deft shooting from long range (71%), it won’t be long before he cracks the starting lineup. One of the underlying strategies heading into the season was to cut back on Kobe’s minutes, and thus far the plan has worked. He averaged 38.9 last season and is only playing 33.3 this season. His minutes are likely to rise as the Lakers play in more close games, but right now Phil Jackson has to be feeling pretty good about how his team has started.

2. The Bucks are finally playing some defense.
Last season, Milwaukee was last in the league in defensive field goal percentage (48.0%), but through five games, they’re holding opponents to 44.2% shooting, which is #14 in the league. New head coach Scott Skiles demands a lot from his players on that end of the court and so far the Bucks are responding with increased effort. The addition of Richard Jefferson certainly helps defensively, but he’s also getting it done on the other end of the court. RJ is averaging 18.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game, even though he’s only shooting 41% from the field. Without Michael Redd in the lineup, Jefferson had a great 32-point, nine-assist effort in a 112-104 overtime win against the Wizards Wednesday night. The Bucks are also getting great play from a couple of unexpected sources. Second-year point guard Ramon Sessions turned a few heads last year when he averaged 12.9 points and 12.4 assists (including a franchise record 24 dimes against the Bulls) over the last eight games of the season. The Mo Williams trade that brought Luke Ridnour to team looked more like a salary dump than a personnel move, but maybe the Bucks decided they had their point guard of the future in Sessions, who is averaging 17.3 points and 8.3 assists on the year. Second round pick Luc Mbah a Moute has outplayed first round pick Joe Alexander thus far. Skiles likes Mbah a Moute’s great defense and toughness, which he learned playing in Ben Howland’s system at UCLA for three years. He’s playing 25.2 minutes and is averaging 8.6 points and 5.0 rebounds per game. The Bucks are 3-2, but have a rough eight-game stretch ahead of them that features the Celtics (twice), Suns, Cavs, Spurs, Nuggets and Jazz. If they can come through that gauntlet close to .500, we’ll know that the Bucks’ improvement is for real.

3. The Spurs were thisclose to starting 0-4.
If not for last night’s 55-point, 10-assist, seven-rebound effort by Tony Parker that helped the Spurs survive a double-overtime scare against the Timberwolves, San Antonio would be looking at an 0-4 start. They lost to the Suns at home by five and to the Blazers by one in Portland, but it was the 98-81 loss to the Mavs at home that was really surprising. The Spurs’ problem is two-fold. Collectively, they’re getting older and they miss Manu Ginobili. Parker (33.3 points, 7.3 assists) and Tim Duncan (27.0 points, 11.8 rebounds) are doing all they can to keep the Spurs in games, but they aren’t getting much help from their supporting cast, specifically Michael Finley (33% FG%) and Kurt Thomas (14% FG%). The Spurs are getting good play from fifth-year guard Roger Mason, who is averaging 15.8 points per game on 60.5% shooting. He’s been extremely hot from downtown, knocking down 64% of this three-point shots. Right now, it’s a three-man show and that’s it; no other Spur is averaging more than 7.5 points per game. The schedule gets a little easier over the next two weeks, with winnable games against the Heat, Knicks, Bucks, Kings and Clippers. San Antonio should be back above .500 before too long.

4. Atlanta is off to a fast start.
In my 2008 NBA Preview, I had the Hawks ranked #20 to start the season. After a 3-0 start, they should definitely be in the top half, maybe even in the top ten. I thought the loss of Josh Childress and the steady decline of Mike Bibby would outweigh whatever improvements this young team could make, but they have proven me wrong. The Hawks’ three wins are impressive. They beat Orlando by 14 points on the road, beat Philly at home by seven and then beat the Hornets in New Orleans by eight. Joe Johnson has led the team in scoring in all three games, and is averaging 28.0 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists on the year. Even more impressive, the Hawks have won despite poor shooting from Josh Smith (42%), Mike Bibby (34%) and Marvin Williams (39%). If Johnson is able to keep up this level of play, the Hawks shouldn’t have a problem making the playoffs for the second consecutive year. Long-term, I like the direction this franchise is headed, but they still need to find their point guard of the future. Mike Bibby is on the decline and Acie Law hasn’t done much in his young career to indicate that he’s the guy they should lean on. The Hawks will have plenty of cap space over the next couple of seasons, so they should be planning to find a point guard that can complement Johnson and forward/center Al Horford.