Check it out at the 0:40 mark. The legend of Manu grows…

With the Mavericks’ 106-93 Game 5 win in San Antonio, it is the first time that Tim Duncan has lost a first round series. Tony Parker shot 55% from the field, and averaged 28.6 points, 6.8 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game. Battling sore knees, Duncan still shot 53% from the field, averaging 19.8 points and 8.0 rebounds. Normally, those kinds of numbers from the Spurs’ top two players would result in a series win. What happened?

1. No supporting cast.
Manu Ginobili was out. Duh. But the rest of the Spurs failed to step up in his absence. Parker and Duncan combined to shoot 100 of 185 (54%) in the series, which means everyone not named Tim or Tony combined to make just 75 of their 198 attempts (38%). Roger Mason shot 42% from long range during the season, but made just 37% in the series. The midseason addition of Drew Gooden was a bust; he averaged just 7.3 points and 3.8 rebounds, and shot 33% from the field. Without Ginobili, there wasn’t a third scorer to take the pressure off of Parker and Duncan.

2. Mediocre defense.
The Mavs averaged 96.4 points per game, shot better than 46% from the field and better than 38% from long range during the series. Now those numbers are by no means eye-popping, but they are very un-Spurs-like. San Antonio just couldn’t get the consistent stops it needed to make up for its overall lack of scoring. Josh Howard and Dirk Nowitzki were both stellar, while J.J. Barea and Brandon Bass played great off the bench when Dallas needed it.

The Spurs head into the summer with zero cap space, but with the fiscal state of the league, they’ll have a good opportunity to add a quality player at the mid-level exception, assuming they want to spend the money. My guess is that they will, given that Tim Duncan’s championship window continues to get smaller and smaller. The team is fine in the backcourt, with Parker, Ginobili, Mason and George Hill. They need help on the wing and in the frontcourt, so the priority will likely be a big man. Rasheed Wallace’s name has been floated, but Zaza Pachulia, Anderson Varejao, Brandon Bass, Chris Andersen and Antonio McDyess are cheaper options.

Every year, Bill Simmons runs down the MVP race from No. 450 to No. 1 (don’t worry, he skips over a lot of players), and this year is no different.

450. Elton Brand
Dramatically edged out Gilbert Arenas and Tracy McGrady for the coveted LVP (“Least Valuable Player”) Award. Here’s what pushed it over the top: Not only did EB destroy Philly’s cap through 2035, he left the Clips with enough cap space that they reacted the same way looters react during a riot. They wanted to walk out of the store with something … or in this case, Marcus Camby, Ricky Davis, Zach Randolph and a 27-inch Sharp LCD. In a floundering economy, should they have guarded that extra cap room and bided their time like The Team That Shall Not Be Named did? OF COURSE!!!! OF COURSE!!!!! When you include Brand’s luring of Baron Davis to the Clippers, causing the Warriors to overreact with $66 million for Corey Maggette and Ronny Turiaf, you could argue that Brand murdered one franchise and gravely wounded two others. Sounds like an LVP to me.

…

166. Manu Ginobili
Ways I’d dissuade my stars from participating in the Olympics or World Basketball Championships if I owned an NBA team: $1 million under-the-table bonus for NOT participating; free lease of a brand-new Maybach every year; bribery with help from a secretly recorded sex session with a hooker I hired to seduce them; blowing up the aforementioned Maybach as a final threat not to go; and finally, kidnapping.

Simmons goes on to compare Wade’s career with Jack Bauer’s, and describes all the different reasons why ___________ is his 2009 MVP.

The Spurs posted an impressive win over the Celtics, 105-99, which marks the first time this season that Boston has lost two consecutive games at home.

Check out the Spurs’ possessions down the stretch:

3:20 Matt Bonner misses 25-foot three point jumper
2:34 Manu Ginobili misses 23-foot three point jumper
1:57 Matt Bonner bad pass (Kevin Garnett steals)
1:19 Roger Mason misses 27-foot three point jumper
0:45 Matt Bonner makes 14-foot two point shot
0:20 Roger Mason makes 24-foot three point jumper

It’s not often that you see an NBA team go away from their stars for that long in crunch time. The trio of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker only combined for one shot attempt in six possessions over three full minutes. The Spurs started that stretch leading, 90-87, fell behind 93-90, and then ultimately went ahead, 95-93, on the made shots by Bonner and Mason.

Bonner co-led the Spurs with 23 points on 10-17 shooting, and led the team in shot attempts. George Hill was 3-3 and scored all seven of his points in the fourth quarter with Duncan and Parker on the bench.

Kevin Garnett led the Celtics with 26 points, but after hitting two jumpers to give his team the lead, he missed a key 17-footer with 0:28 to play.

The NBA All-Star Game is part meritocracy and part popularity contest. First, the fans vote, and the top five vote getters – two guards, two forwards and a center – from each conference are the starters. Then the coaches vote on the remaining seven reserves for each team.

The current vote count can be seen here, but I thought I’d put together my own list – five starters and seven reserves – for each team. To me, when it comes to naming All-Stars a winning record is just as important as great stats, so given two players with similar numbers, I’m probably going to give the nod to the guy on the better team. I’ll list the player’s Player Efficiency Rating, which gives a nice overview of the guy’s per-minute statistical production this season.

And off we go…

EASTERN CONFERENCE STARTERS

Dwyane Wade, Heat
PER: 29.14
D-Wade is back with a vengeance. He’s averaging 29.0 points, 7.1 assists and 5.1 rebounds, and is (almost) single-handedly keeping the Heat in the playoff hunt. With 24% accuracy, I don’t know why he’s shooting so many threes (3.0 per game), but that’s just nitpicking. He’s third in the league in steals (2.25).

Joe Johnson, Hawks
PER: 19.84
JJ is averaging 22.3 points, 6.1 assists and 4.6 rebounds, and has the Hawks in a battle for the #4 spot in the East. His three-point shooting is down two points, but his overall FG% is up a point. Remember when everyone laughed at the Hawks for giving up future MIP Boris Diaw and two first round picks for him?

LeBron James, Cavs
PER: 32.04
LeBron is the front-runner for the MVP thus far. He’s posting 27.7 points, 6.6 assists and 6.6 rebounds a game. His numbers are down, but that’s because the Cavs can afford to rest him an additional four minutes per game. It’s great to see his FG% over 50% (50.8%) and FT% approaching 80% (78.8%). LeBron has always been a statistical stud, but it’s the Cavs’ stellar record that has him leading the MVP race.

The problem with the Suns’ decision to move to a slower tempo is that the Spurs are simply better at that style of play. Even with San Antonio’s inability to score late in the fourth quarter (due in part to Tony Parker’s dry spell), I just had a feeling that the Spurs were going to pull this one out.

In addition to his 25 points and 17 rebounds, Tim Duncan successfully defended Amare Stoudemire on three straight possessions despite being called for his fifth foul minutes earlier. Duncan isn’t terribly athletic, but he’s one of the best defensive big men of all time due to his incredible discipline and timing. He rarely leaves his feet and knows how to avoid fouling. It’s quite remarkable, really.

The Suns took the lead after Michael Finley got screened and Parker failed to pick up Grant Hill as he sliced to the rim for an easy bucket. It’s not clear if Parker was supposed to switch or if Finley was supposed to stay with his guy, but regardless, it was a rare defensive breakdown for the Spurs.

The game-winning possession started with Parker penetrating to the left side of the lane. Gregg Popovich brought in the sharp-shooting Roger Mason, and planted him in the corner. Parker’s penetration forced Jason Richardson to help, though he should have stayed on Mason. Parker found the open Mason in the corner and he knocked down the game-winning shot.

It was a great win for the Spurs and it proved that the Suns still have a long way to go before they’ll be considered a legitimate contender in the West.

Originally published December 11, 2008.
Updated November 12, 2009.

The phrase “Summer of 2010″ has become part of the NBA lexicon. Teams have been tripping over each other trying to clear cap space for next summer so that they can sign an impact free agent (or two). With that in mind, let’s take a look ahead at the free agent crop of 2010.

Below is a list of the top 10 players that are likely to be free agents next summer. I’m ranking them based mostly on talent, but it’s also important to note each player’s age in July of 2010, as that will affect his value and skill. For example, a 31 year-old Paul Pierce holds much more value than a 33 year-old Paul Pierce. Get the drift?

1. LeBron James, SF (26 years-old)
James is the golden boy of this free agent class and is the player that every franchise would love to land next summer. He will have just turned 26 and whatever team is lucky enough to sign him will – barring injury – enjoy four or five years of the best basketball of his career. The Cavs have gone “all in” this season, signing Shaq, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, and re-signing Anderson Varejao. In the process, they gave up whatever cap space they would have enjoyed next summer. If Cleveland’s season ends in disappointment once again, it wouldn’t be surprising if LeBron decides to take his game elsewhere. Three teams — the Knicks, Bulls and Nets — jump out as good fits. LeBron has stated that his top priority is to become a “global iconâ€� and playing in Manhattan would serve that purpose. If the Knicks are able to unload Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries before the trade deadline, then they’ll have the projected cap space to sign two top players on this list, and that might be enough to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line. Plus, he’s familiar with Mike D’Antoni (via the duo’s work with Team USA) and the Knicks’ up-tempo system would be a near-perfect fit for LeBron’s skill set. The Nets offer a better supporting cast (led by Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the (impending?) move to Brooklyn would boost the franchise’s profile. Chicago has a number of pieces already in place (Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich) and is bigger market than Cleveland. But would LeBron want to go to the franchise that Michael Jordan built?
Note: Player option (PO)

Read the rest of this entry »

Originally published December 11, 2008.
Updated November 12, 2009.

The phrase “Summer of 2010″ has become part of the NBA lexicon. Teams have been tripping over each other trying to clear cap space for next summer so that they can sign an impact free agent (or two). With that in mind, let’s take a look ahead at the free agent crop of 2010.

Below is a list of the top 10 players that are likely to be free agents next summer. I’m ranking them based mostly on talent, but it’s also important to note each player’s age in July of 2010, as that will affect his value and skill. For example, a 31 year-old Paul Pierce holds much more value than a 33 year-old Paul Pierce. Get the drift?

1. LeBron James, SF (26 years-old)
James is the golden boy of this free agent class and is the player that every franchise would love to land next summer. He will have just turned 26 and whatever team is lucky enough to sign him will – barring injury – enjoy four or five years of the best basketball of his career. The Cavs have gone “all in” this season, signing Shaq, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, and re-signing Anderson Varejao. In the process, they gave up whatever cap space they would have enjoyed next summer. If Cleveland’s season ends in disappointment once again, it wouldn’t be surprising if LeBron decides to take his game elsewhere. Three teams — the Knicks, Bulls and Nets — jump out as good fits. LeBron has stated that his top priority is to become a “global iconâ€� and playing in Manhattan would serve that purpose. If the Knicks are able to unload Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries before the trade deadline, then they’ll have the projected cap space to sign two top players on this list, and that might be enough to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line. Plus, he’s familiar with Mike D’Antoni (via the duo’s work with Team USA) and the Knicks’ up-tempo system would be a near-perfect fit for LeBron’s skill set. The Nets offer a better supporting cast (led by Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the (impending?) move to Brooklyn would boost the franchise’s profile. Chicago has a number of pieces already in place (Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich) and is bigger market than Cleveland. But would LeBron want to go to the franchise that Michael Jordan built?
Note: Player option (PO)

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, we took a look at John Hollinger’s Eastern Conference playoff odds. Today we’ll look at the Western Conference.

1. LA Lakers (100)
2. Phoenix (96.5)
3. Portland (96.3)
4. Denver (93.8)
5. Utah (88.6)
6. New Orleans (81.1)
7. Dallas (80.6)
8. Houston (78.1)
==============
9. Golden State (34.4)
10. Memphis (20.3)
11. San Antonio (19.9)
12. Sacramento (7.7)
13. Minnesota (2.6)
14. L.A. Clippers (0.1)
15. Oklahoma City (0.0)

He looks like he has the West pegged save for one big problem. I don’t see how the Mavericks – who are 5-7 at full strength – will make the playoffs but the Spurs – who are 5-6 and missing two of their three best players – will not. Hollinger’s formula is probably heavily mathematical, so he can’t account for injuries, and that’s part of the problem with taking a pure statistical approach to something like this. Tony Parker is due back in mid-December, while Ginobili is ahead of schedule and should be back a bit earlier. The Spurs are getting good play from George Hill and Roger Mason, and if they can stay near .500, they shouldn’t have a problem making the playoffs if Parker and Ginobili come back strong.

As for the Mavericks, barring a major injury to one of the other eight teams (including the Spurs), I don’t see how they make the postseason. Denver’s 8-4 record seems a little odd, but they are getting good play from Chauncey Billups, who has changed the team’s attitude defensively.

Even without Monta Ellis, Golden State has surprisingly kept its head above water, and if the Warriors can stay close to .500 until January (when Ellis is set to return), they would be a dark horse to make the playoffs.

I know the answer is “defense,” but the San Antonio Spurs started with this lineup last night – George Hill, Roger Mason, Ime Udoka, Tim Duncan and Fabricio Oberto – and they still managed to beat (77-75) a Houston team that was pretty much at full strength. Rafer Alston was suspended for the game and the team is still without Shane Battier due to a foot injury. Still, the Rockets have no business losing to the Spurs, who are without Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.

On the night, Tracy McGrady was just 2-12 from the field, but the Rockets still led by seven heading into the fourth quarter. Tim Duncan (22 points, 5 rebounds) was big down the stretch and he had the game-saving block (on Aaron Brooks’ layup attempt) to seal the win.

When looking at a win like this, maybe the injuries to Ginobili and Parker are a blessing in disguise for the Spurs. Guys like Hill and Mason are getting big minutes, and this experience could very well help San Antonio down the road.