2009 College Football Week 12 Picks & Predictions

Last week was bitter sweet as I went 4-0 straight up but just 1-3 against the spread. Keep in mind that I try to only pick top 25 games, so they’re much, much harder to predict. Like, much harder. (Or at least that’s my excuse anyway.)

No. 8 LSU at Mississippi, 3:30PM ET
Both of these SEC teams will be looking to finish the 2009 season strong when they square off this Saturday in Oxford. The Rebels snapped a six-game losing streak to the Tigers last season but they haven’t won at home in his series since 1998. The public seems high on Ole Miss after the Rebs hammered Tennessee last Saturday, but keep in mind that the Vols were in the midst of some turmoil after three of their players were arrested for attempted armed robbery last week. Dexter McCluster went off on Tennessee for 282 yards and four touchdowns, but he’ll have a hard time repeating that effort against a stout LSU front seven. Something tells me that Les Miles’ team is still pissed off about what happened two weeks again in Tuscaloosa and will play this week with passion. I see a small upset for the Tigers and an outright win.
Odds: Ole Miss –4.5.
Prediction: LSU 20, Ole Miss 17.

No. 25 California at No. 17 Stanford, 7:30PM ET
Stanford is playing as well as anyone in the nation right now. The Cardinal have scored 106 points combined against Oregon and USC the past two weeks and senior running back Toby Gerhart has almost been unstoppable. Without running back Jahvid Best, Cal squeaked by Arizona last week, 24-16. With Best sidelined again this Saturday, many expect Stanford to roll but don’t forget that Cal has the 19th best run defense in the nation and is capable of containing Gerhart and keeping things close. Quarterback Kevin Riley might be able to take advantage of a Stanford secondary that has been inconsistent this season, although without the threat of a running game the Bears’ offense might become too one-dimensional in the second half. I think Stanford will pull out the victory but this game will be closer than people think.
Odds: Stanford –7.5.
Prediction: Stanford 35, Cal 31.

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2009 College Football Week 10 Point Spreads & Odds

Along with a complete list of point spreads and odds for Week 10’s action in college football, here is a quick-hit look at some of the marquee matchups:

No. 9 LSU at No. 3 Alabama, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
After losing to Florida in Baton Rouge three weeks ago, LSU has rattled off two wins in impressive fashion. While Auburn and Tulane aren’t powerhouse opponents, the Tigers combined to score 73 points in those games and showed an offensive pulse. But can they do the same against a worthy defensive opponent like Alabama? The Tigers only mustered three points against the Gators and will certainly have their hands full trying to move the ball against a Tide defense that ranks No. 4 in the nation and should be well rested coming off a bye.
Odds: Alabama –7.5.

No. 8 Oregon at Stanford, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
Oregon is one of the hottest teams in the nation right now, but will they suffer a letdown after beating No. 5 USC last week? Stanford has been solid at home this year, beating previously ranked Washington 34-14, UCLA 24-16 and a decent Arizona State team 33-14. They had defensive troubles in road losses to Oregon State and Arizona this season (and also lost to a pesky Wake Forest team earlier in the year), but otherwise the Cardinal has been competitive. The Ducks’ offensive attack is firing on all cylinders right now, but the game this week in Stanford is far from a gimmie.
Odds: Oregon -6.

No. 16 Ohio State at No. 11 Penn State, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
If either of these teams wants to keep Iowa in their sites in the Big Ten, a win is a must this Saturday in University Park. Since his brutal display in Purdue three weeks ago, Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor has looked better the past two weeks. But Minnesota and New Mexico State don’t have the kind of defensive prowess that Penn State has and Pryor could be in for a long day on Saturday. The Lions have been outstanding since their loss to Iowa in late September, rattling off five straight wins while beating opponents by a 176-43 margin. The Buckeyes’ defense should be up for the challenge, but will Pryor?
Odds: Penn State –4.

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Tebow not medically cleared to play LSU yet

According to ESPN.com, Florida quarterback Tim Tebow won’t practice on Monday and hasn’t been medically cleared to play LSU on Saturday. Tebow suffered a concussion two weeks ago in a win over Kentucky.

But Meyer said the 2007 Heisman Trophy winner is no longer dealing with post-concussion symptoms.

“From what I understand, there’s no symptoms and I think he’s cleared to act like Tim Tebow,” Meyer said. “Everything but practice right now. I know he’s allowed to watch TV. Earlier in the week he wasn’t allowed to do anything focused. I guess that’s normal protocol. And then after a week they acclimate.”

Meyer said Tebow has been without headaches and other symptoms for several days. He said Tebow was given balance and memory tests Friday, Sunday and Monday, and the results were “very positive.”

First and foremost, it’s good to hear that Tebow isn’t suffering any post-concussion symptoms. Hopefully the medical reports will continue to be positive and he can continue playing soon.

But speaking only from a football sense, this is horrible timing for Florida. If they were playing Holy Trinity Sisters of the Poor in five days, resting Tebow for another week would make sense. But with LSU and their ferocious defense coming up, the decision on whether or not to play Tebow gets a little cloudier.

That said, if he’s not medically cleared to play, then there’s no debate – he needs to sit out. But what if he’s medically cleared at the end of the week and he missed five days of practice? Should Florida still play him?

This is going to be an interesting dilemma for Meyer.

LSU narrowly defeats Mississippi State

LaFell

If one were to only watch this game’s first quarter, their views on both teams would be drastically shaken. No. 7 LSU went into this game 3-0 and had won nine straight against their opponents from Mississippi State. At the end of the first quarter, the Bulldogs somehow held a 14-13 lead. It seemed as though fans could sense an upset as they suddenly piled into the stadium well after the opening whistle. Quickly, however, that ornate offense helmed by Mississippi State quarterback Tyson Lee gradually dismantled. By the end of the first half, Lee had thrown three interceptions and his team had committed a total of four turnovers. Luckily for them, LSU didn’t look any sharper — on either end of the field. Their skimpy defense was obvious to anyone watching. We knew that could be a problem coming in, but what was up with their rushing? With a total of seven yards rushing at the half, LSU coach Les Miles was left dumbfounded. Both teams had multiple opportunities to score, but sloppy play prevented either from increasing a lead. At the end of the half, No. 7 LSU was on top 16-14.

In their first possession of the third quarter, LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson connected with Brandon LaFell for a 58-yard touchdown pass. Despite their embarrassing first half performance, LSU suddenly looked like a real team. Still, Mississippi State would respond with a touchdown of their own. But Chad Johnson’s beautiful 93-yard punt return for a touchdown again rejuvenated the Tigers. Come the fourth quarter, Mississippi State completely depended on star running back Anthony Dixon to carry their team. This proved to be a wise decision, as he would finish the game with two touchdowns on 106 yards.

With 1:20 left in the game, Mississippi State came within four inches of scoring, thanks again to Anthony Dixon. However, they couldn’t convert their momentum into a touchdown as LSU’s defense finally made an impact when it mattered most. In what was a surprisingly close game, LSU defeated Mississippi State 30-26.

Lastly, hats off to Mississippi State’s new coach, Dan Mullen, who kept his team in the game against one of the strongest programs in college football.

Couch Potato Alert: 11/7

Alabama vs. LSU
How ironic is life…Nick Saban coached LSU to a BCS national championship in 2003, only to take the money and run to the NFL. He became frustrated at the pro level in Miami, and then brokered a deal to return to college football at Alabama. This weekend, Saban returns to Tiger Stadium with the nation’s top-ranked team. LSU’s offensive line could have a tough time opening holes for running back Charles Scott against a Bama defensive front that ranks second in the nation against the run. It would be the Tigers best interest to grab an early lead, as Alabama has dominated their opponents at beginning of games all season. National coverage begins Saturday at 3:30 PM on CBS. Click here for official Alabama vs. LSU smack thread.

Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech
Another week, another contest in the Big 12 that matches two high-powered offenses in a game with BCS national title game implications. The Red Raiders are coming off a last second victory over then No. 1 Texas last weekend, but they cannot afford to relax as a game in Oklahoma looms ahead later in the month. Texas Tech’s 9-0 record is their best start to a season since 1938, and the Red Raiders haven’t been undefeated in conference play this late in the season since 1953, when they were a member of the Border Conference. Regional coverage begins Saturday at 8 PM on ABC.

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
A road win over the surging Philadelphia Eagles will secure the New York Giants as the class of the NFC and established them as the conference favorites to return to the Super Bowl. Many in the media have downplayed the Giants 7-1 record because of their relative easy schedule, as they have faced teams with a combined record of 27-40 on the season. The Eagles are second in the NFC behind the Giants with 27 sacks and will look to pressure Eli Manning in the backfield all Sunday evening. The Giants’ only loss in their last four trips to Philly came in their 2007 wild-card playoff meeting. National coverage begins Sunday at 8:15 PM on NBC.

Couch Potato Alert: 10/10

Oklahoma vs. Texas
This year’s Red River Rivalry battle at the Cotton Bowl has more marquee value than in past years; as for the first time since 2004 both teams will enter the game ranked in the top five. Heading into this season, the Longhorns offense was thought to be their biggest strength. But it has been the Texas defense that has provided most of the swagger. The Longhorns are ranked fourth nationally in total defense and that is a big jump since the 2007 unit set a school record for most yards allowed in a season. They will get stiff competition come Saturday against top-ranked Oklahoma. The Sooners are in the top five nationally in all offensive scoring categories, led by the nation’s second-rated passer Sam Bradford. National coverage begins Saturday at 12 PM ET on ABC. Click here for the official Oklahoma-Texas smack thread.

LSU vs. Florida
“The Showdown at the Swamp” marks the first time the last two national champions have faced each other since Notre Dame defeated Miami, 29-20, in 1990. The stakes are high for both schools; Florida must win to maintain any realistic hope of staying in the hunt for a berth in the BCS championship game, while LSU needs the win to stay on course to repeat as National Champions. And the matchup got even more intense after Tigers defensive lineman Ricky Jean-Francois promised that the LSU defense will try to knock Gator quarterback Tim Tebow out of the game. Later in the week, Jean-Francois said his comments were misinterpreted by the press. National coverage begins Saturday at 8 PM ET on CBS.

Major League Baseball LCS Series
The animosity between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox is not ready to approach the level of the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry, but their contempt for each other is a good undercard. Back on June 5th, the Rays’ Game One starter, James Shields, hit Red Sox outfielder Coco Crisp with a pitch that triggered a bench-clearing brawl between the two teams. Has this issue been resolved? Stay tuned for the answer. Meanwhile, the National League Championship series boils down to how well the Los Angeles Dodgers left-handed pitchers throw to the Philadelphia Phillies lethal left-handed hitting. The Phillies led the NL with 214 homeruns, with Ryan Howard leading the way with 48 followed by Chase Utley with 33, and both players bat left-handed. The top of the Phillies’ lineup also includes switch-hitting Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino, who both have outstanding on-base percentages. NLCS Game Two is Friday at 4:30 PM ET and Game Three is on Sunday at 8 PM ET; all NLCS games are on Fox. ALCS Game One is on Friday at 8:30 PM ET and Game Two is on Saturday at 8 PM ET. All ALCS games can be seen on TBS.

New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers
Their franchise quarterback is out for the season, and somehow the Patriots have still put together a successful start to their 2008 season. On the other side of the field, the Chargers have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL. To avoid falling further back in the AFC standings, the Chargers must try to defeat a Patriots team that has eliminated them from the past two post-seasons. Inconsistent play on both sides of the ball has plagued the Chargers all season; they have lost three games by a total of 10 points. Coverage begins at 8:15 PM ET on NBC

Couch Potato Alert: 9/19

37th Ryder Cup
The three-day match-play competition between the United States and Europe has a way of making the world’s elite golfers wilt under the pressure of trying to capture the Ryder Cup. Over the last 25 years, it has become a hotly contested event, with the U.S. record at four wins, seven losses, and a tie, including three straight match defeats to the Europeans (the Ryder Cup takes place every two years). The competition will begin this morning at 7 AM EST on ESPN from the Valhalla Country Club in Louisville, Kentucky, and continue throughout the weekend on NBC.

Wake Forest vs. Florida State
Neither school has distinguished itself as a contender for securing a spot in the ACC championship game. Wake Forest would love to duplicate their last trip to Tallahassee, when they shutout the Seminoles 30-0 two years ago. Florida State has been playing short-handed due to player suspensions and will welcome back star wide receiver Preston Parker to the lineup on Saturday. Coverage begins at 7 PM EST on ESPN2.

LSU vs. Auburn
There’s no better way to start off the SEC season than with a LSU-Auburn showdown. The “Tiger Bowl” winner could establish itself as the team to beat in the SEC West, though Alabama might have a say in the matter down the road. LSU and Auburn have split their last four meetings, with each game decided by six or fewer points. Coverage begins at 7:45 PM EST on ESPN. Click here for the official LSU-Auburn smack thread.

Georgia vs. Arizona State
The luster has been taken off this game by the Sun Devils’ overtime loss at home to UNLV last week. It’s still a big game, as the Bulldogs are in the national title hunt despite being passed in the polls by USC and Oklahoma. ASU could get back in the BCS bowl picture with an upset in Tempe on Saturday night. Coverage begins at 8 PM EST on ABC.

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
This Sunday night, the final major league baseball game will be played at historic Yankee Stadium. The House That Ruth Built has been the home office for post-season success come October, as 100 World Series games have been played at the Stadium. This event will be nationally televised on ESPN beginning at 8 PM EST.

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