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2009 College Football Picks & Predictions: Week 5

No. 4 LSU at No. 18 Georgia, 3:30PM ET
Last year, Georgia rolled into Tiger Stadium and laid a 52-38 beat down on LSU as they forced three turnovers and running back Knowshon Moreno (now a Denver Bronco) racked up 163 yards on 21 carries. After an ugly 24-10 loss to Oklahoma State in the opening week of the season, the Bulldogs have rattled off three straight wins and will now face a Tiger team that struggled a bit offensively last week in a narrow 30-26 win over Mississippi State. LSU was outgained 374-263 and only rushed for 30 yards in the victory. The Tigers usually feast on pro-style offenses, so UGA quarterback Joe Cox can’t force throws in attempt to make something happen down field. That said, the Tigers haven’t been tested yet and needed a goal line stand to pull off the win last week. Georgia, on the other hand, has already faced a ranked OK State team and beaten competitive SEC foes South Carolina and Arkansas. The Bulldogs are more battle tested and will overcome a stiff Tiger defense.
Odds: Georgia –3.
Prediction: Georgia 24, LSU 20.

No. 7 USC at No. 24 California, 8:00PM ET
Don’t everyone break your legs jumping off the Cal bandwagon after Oregon smacked the Golden Bears 42-3 last week. Heisman candidate Jahvid Best rushed for only 55 yards in the loss and will face another tough challenge this week against a USC defense that held him to only 30 yards last season. The Trojans have the sixth best defense in the nation and the fifth best scoring defense. They have limited opponents to only 59.5 rushing yards per game and only 95 YPC threw the air. That said, Cal has played USC close over the years and the Trojans have kept things rather conservative offensively with freshman Matt Barkley under center. I see this game being close, although I don’t know if Kevin Riley can beat USC through the air if the Trojans’ front seven takes away Best.
Odds: USC –4.5.
Prediction: USC 20, Cal 17.

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Week 5 College Football Odds

Odds makers have released the point spreads for Week 5 in college football. Below are a list of odds for the top 25 teams and a quick-hit look at some of the marquee matchups.

No. 3 Alabama at Kentucky, 12:21PM ET
Why have Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide become the red headed stepchild of college football this year? Nobody is talking about ‘Bama and they’ve already beaten a top 10 team (Virginia Tech) and held the No. 2 offense in the nation (Arkansas) to only seven points last week. Bobby Petrino’s Razorbacks proved to be of little challenge last Saturday as the Tide limited Arkansas to only 254 total yards. This week, ‘Bama takes on a Kentucky team that couldn’t stay within four touchdowns of a Florida program that was ransacked by the flu.
Odds: Alabama –17.

No. 4 LSU at No. 18 Georgia, 3:30PM ET
The Tigers had to stave off a late rally by Mississippi State last week to beat the Bulldogs and will face a Georgia team this Saturday that has won three straight games. UGA’s three wins haven’t been pretty (especially defensively), but the Dawgs are averaging over 30 points a game and have gotten good position thanks to their return game. They’re going to need all the offense they can get this week, because LSU ranks 23rd in the nation in scoring defense. The Tigers are only allowing 15.25 points per game and rank 10th in the nation in pass efficiency defense.
Odds: Georgia –3.

No. 7 USC at No. 24 California, 8:00PM ET
The significance of this game took a hit last week didn’t it? Cal was ranked sixth in the nation entering play last week, but a 42-3 drubbing at the hands of Oregon dropped them to No. 24. USC rebounded from their 16-13 defeat to Washington by beating Washington State 27-6 last Saturday, but they received somber news earlier this week when running back Stafon Johnson injured his throat in a weight lifting accident that required emergency surgery. The focal point this week for Southern Cal will be to contain Heisman candidate Jahvid Best, who ranks ninth in the country in rushing yards. If any defense can slow Best down, it would be the Trojans, who currently rank fifth in rushing defense.
Odds: USC –6.

No. 8 Oklahoma at No. 17 Miami, 8:00PM ET
This is another Week 5 matchup that took a hit last week when the Canes were absolutely embarrassed in Blacksburg 31-7. Miami quarterback Jacory Harris looked mortal for the first time all season thanks to the Hokies’ excellent pass rush and the Canes defense didn’t show enough gap discipline as VA Tech complied 272 rushing yards. Despite losing quarterback Sam Bradford, the Sooners still own the eighth best scoring offense in college football and the 33rd best rushing attack. Miami will find it tough to move the ball on Oklahoma’s fifth best defense, one that has allowed only 4.67 points per game and has pitched two shutouts the past two weeks.
Odds: Oklahoma –7.

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