After the Louisville player dunks, check out the cheerleader who grabs the ball and throws it in the air. That’s all well and good if the buzzer had sounded — but the game wasn’t over yet. There was still 0.5 seconds remaining. Louisville was charged with a technical, and Pitt hit both free throws to cut the lead to three. Pitt had a chance at a half court heave that could have tied the game.
With Jerry Smith sidelined, reserve Kyle Kuric got some extra run, and closed Freedom Hall in style. The sophomore scored a career-high 22 points (all in the second half), hitting 9-11 from the field and 4-6 from long range, as the Cardinals beat Syracuse for the sixth straight time, 78-68, in the final game at historic Freedom Hall.
Kuric’s performance was electrifying. Louisivlle was trailing 42-39 with 14:19 to play when Kuric scored his first bucket on a fast break dunk. By the time he scored his 22nd point, Louisville led 77-64 with under a minute to play. During that run, he made four straight threes and several alley-oop dunks.
Louisville won’t have to worry about getting a bid to the NCAA tournament now. They’re 11-7 in conference and 20-11 overall, but two wins against Syracuse will surely earn the Cardinals a bid.
In the middle of the second half, Gus Johnson and Len Elmore started to talk about how Michigan State was “starting to believe,” but the term I like to use is that the Spartans could “start to taste it.” There comes a point in the game when an underdog has enough of a lead that they start to think that they’re about to pull off the upset. I think that point came at about the 7:18 mark in the second half when Draymond Green tipped in an offensive rebound to give the Spartans a 12-point lead. If you’re coming back from a deficit, you don’t want to be down by more than the number of minutes remaining, and if you’re holding on to a lead, you want to get to a point where you are leading by twice as many points as there are minutes remaining. That’s when you start to feel that you’re fully in control of the game.
Michigan State essentially played the perfect game. They played great defense (holding Louisville to 52 points and just 38% shooting from the field), didn’t turn the ball over (12), and shot great from long range (8 for 16). Goran Suton got hot early and finished with 19 points. In the second half, Durrell Summers and Kalin Lucas each made a pair of three-pointers. The Spartans did a terrific job of passing the ball around and the role players hit shots when they needed to.
The Cardinals’ second- and third-leading scorers, Samardo Samuels and Terrence Williams, combined to shoot 1 for 13 from the field for five points. It was a disappointing finish to a great season for Louisville. Now Rick Pitino has to answer the question about why he bought a house in Tuscon — is he going to be the next head coach for Arizona?
Michigan State heads off to the Final Four, which takes place about 75 miles from East Lansing, at Ford Field.
These March Madness diaries have turned into something of a tour of the sports bars of Orange County. Last Thursday it was Rudy’s in Newport Beach (still my favorite), yesterday it was the Costa Mesa Hooters, and tonight it’s Sandbox, a relatively new sports bar/lounge on Beach Blvd in Huntington Beach. The setup is nice – but no wifi, so this diary is going up in one fell swoop – with a number of HD flatscreens positioned around the restaurant. At night, it turns into more of a lounge/dance club for the well-dressed. Our server’s name is Jessie and she’s looking sharp in her little black dress. We’ll see if I can get a picture of her for you.
I’m watching the games with LaRusso and his co-worker/buddy Kevin, who is from Foxboro, so he’s a big Patriots, Celtics and Red Sox fan. We got into a minor spat last year over whether or not the Celtics would have beat the Lakers had Andrew Bynum been healthy – he thought a Boston win would have been a sure thing while I thought it would have thrown the series on its ear, but we’re way past that now.
5:14 PM: Louisville is spanking Arizona (not a huge surprise) and Oklahoma is up eight or ten on Syracuse (a bit of a surprise). I think the Orangemen have a shot at pulling this one out, though it’s not looking particularly good right now.
5:20 PM: What is the deal with these Howie Long commercials where he mocks anyone who has a truck that’s not a Chevy? This probably brings back memories of high school for Howie. Is there any chance that he wasn’t stuffing freshman in lockers on a regular basis? He reminds me of a meaner “Big John” from “Can’t Buy Me Love.” He was the one who stuck his butt out the window of a house party and farted in the face of a young Seth Green. For those that haven’t seen the flick, it’s one of my favorites from the ’80s — McDreamy plays a McLoser who pays a girl to date him so he can be popular. Hilarity (and surprisingly touching social commentary) ensues. Anyway, I’m waiting for one of these guys in these commercials to tell Howie to go f*ck himself. Do we really need a washed up NFLer mocking a fellow truck owner because it has a convenient “man step” or gets two fewer miles to the gallon? Give me a break.
1. Louisville is a class above the rest, but they have a serious flaw.
No major conference team comes into the tournament hotter than Louisville. They have won 10 straight games, including wins over Providence (twice), Marquette, West Virginia and Villanova. They even beat a red-hot Syracuse team to win the Big East Championship. They have the country’s second-best adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for strength of schedule), and aren’t too shabby offensively, either. But the conventional wisdom is that you need strong guard play to win a title, and the Cardinals don’t have a guard that averages more than 7.8 points per game. However, Louisville’s little guys can really defend, and that might be enough.
2. There are some live dogs.
I doubt there were any coaches out there hoping to get a first round matchup with Arizona this week. With future NBA’ers Chase Budinger, Nic Wise and Jordan Hill in the lineup, the Wildcats can play with anyone. But will they show up? #10-seed USC is hot as a pistol right now and the Trojans actually might be the favorite in their matchup with #7-seed Boston College. Freshman phenom DeMar DeRozan has averaged 19.8 points over the last five games, all USC wins. #13-seed Cleveland State is 29th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. What does this mean? The Vikings can really defend. That’s bad news for the Demon Deacons, who shot just 30% in their ACC tourney matchup with Maryland last week.
3. That Kansas/WVU pick is a tough one.
Not only is this a great matchup between two very good teams, but with the winner’s date with the vulnerable Michigan State Spartans in the next round, this one might have huge bracket implications as well. Should we pick the Mountaineers, who recently beat Pittsburgh and Villanova, and lost by five to a hot Syracuse team in the Big East semis? Or do we pick the Jayhawks, who beat Oklahoma, Missouri and Texas before laying an egg against Baylor in the Big 12 tournament? Maybe the best plan to enter two pools so we can pick both.
4. The longshots can shoot the long ball.
The three-point shot is the great equalizer, and the favorites in the Midwest better not fall asleep on the perimeter, or they might be in for a long day. #14-seed North Dakota State has a four-pack of players that make an average of 6.2 three-pointers a game, highlighted by leading scorer Ben Woodside’s 22.8 points per game and 43% accuracy from long range. #15-seed Robert Morris has Jeremy Chappell (2.5 3pg, 41% 3PT) and Jimmy Langhurst (1.9 3pg, 43% 3PT), who can both really light it up. So, Kansas and Michigan State — don’t say you weren’t warned…
Bookmark this page and check back periodically for my thoughts as I watch the scores roll in on Thursday. There are at least 10 bubble teams in action today, starting with Providence/Louisville in the Big East quarterfinals.
1:32 AM: I’m going to hit the hay. I’ll be back tomorrow at 12 PM ET to start this all again. New Mexico is currently down seven to Wyoming with two minutes to play, so their bubble might be bursting tonight. It was a great day of basketball capped by one of the best games I’ve ever seen.
1:25 AM: The Orangemen finally prevailed, 127-117 (6 OT). Syracuse plays a ton of zone and I think that gave them an advantage in a game of this length. When you’re playing man to man, you have to go from side to side (of the half court) to cover your guy. When you’re in a zone, you just cover an area, so there’s less running involved. Over the course of a regular 40-minute game, it doesn’t make that much of a difference, but if you give a player the choice of playing 70 minutes of man-to-man or 70 minutes of zone, they’ll pick zone. Zone simply requires less effort, and I think the Orangemen had more in the tank at the end. I’m exhausted and I didn’t play a minute. What a great game…
1:07 AM: This is insane. This UConn/Syracuse game just went to a 6TH OVERTIME! Forget about the winner having any gas left in the tank for tomorrow night. Hell, they might not even show up to play.
12:57 AM: Bill Rafferty with the line of the night, “These guys are so tired they’re going to need cabs to get to the other end of the court.” A.J. Price has been great in the last two OTs.
12:47 AM: Wow, what a game in New York. UConn and Syracuse are in a 5TH OVERTIME. My TiVo ran out of space at the end of the second overtime, so I checked the internet to see who won and I saw that the game was still going on. So I flipped it on and watched the 4th OT. Hasheem Thabeet just fouled out, but Syracuse couldn’t finish at the rim with time winding down. Five more minutes.
11:06 PM: USC just beat Cal in a tight one, so the Trojans are still alive for an NCAA berth. Mizzou is controlling its game against Texas Tech as is Boston College in its game versus Virginia. UConn and Syracuse are battling with about nine minutes left on ESPN. The Huskies are up two and probably need the win if they hope to secure a #1 seed next week.
10:00 PM: USC is beating Cal by 15 at halftime. The Trojans are a team that could play their way into a bid with a few wins in the Pac-10 tourney. Their RPI (61) and SOS (27) aren’t bad, but they’re 0-4 against Top 25 RPI teams.
9:17 PM: Down goes Pitt! Down goes Oklahoma! The Panthers lost to a very good West Virginia team that was helped by DeJuan Blair’s foul trouble. Watch out for the Mountaineers in the tourney. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State nipped Oklahoma in a great game, which means that the top two seeds in the Big 12 tourney have been knocked out (and Missouri has yet to play). OSU was already in, but now the door is open for a team like Baylor or Texas Tech to get a bid by winning the tourney. The other three teams still alive – OSU, Mizzou and Texas — are already in. In the ACC, Maryland beat NC State to keep the Terps’ slim NCAA hopes alive. They really need to win another game or two to have a legit shot.
Lately, I’ve been hitting the Joe Lunardi bracketology page over at ESPN on a daily basis — the guy knows his stuff. But I scrolled down and found myself intrigued by one of the comments (by EliSilverman):
Here’s some math to prove just how much better the Big East is than any other conference. The Big East has the lowest average projected seed amongst the top conferences (3.7), surpassing the ACC (4.2), Big 12 (5.5), PAC 10 (6.4), SEC (8.0) and Big 10 (8.1). Now, here’s a bit more math….I predict there’s a 75% chance that the semi-finalists of the Big East tournament also become the Final Four in the Big Dance.
All right, I’m not a math major — I just have an engineering degree — but in order to prove conference strength, it’s not accurate to only average the projected seeds of the teams that get in the tournament. By that logic, Conference USA is the strongest conference because its average projected seed is 2.0 (Memphis).
Eli might say, “Everyone knows that C-USA isn’t the toughest conference because it only has one team in the tournament.” Well, by that logic, the Big 10 is the strongest conference because Lunardi projects that it will get eight tourney bids, one more than the Big East. You can’t have it both ways.
What makes the strongest conference? Is it the quality of the teams at the top? Or is it the strength of the conference from top to bottom. If it’s the former, then the Big East has a great argument. Pitt, UConn and Louisville are legitimate Final Four threats (and are all ranked in the top 5), while the ACC, Big 10 and Big 12 only have one team ranked in the top 7. If you’re going by total conference strength, then it’s hard to beat the Big 10 since it looks like eight of its 11 teams (73%) could get bids. (I know, it’s dumb to have 11 teams in a conference called the Big 10, but that’s another post.) The Big East has 16 teams (a fact glossed over by Big East supporters), so seven bids out of 16 teams (44%) isn’t quite as impressive.
Personally, I go by Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings. The guy knows his stuff, so if he says that the ACC is the strongest conference top-to-bottom, then I believe him. And if he says that the Big 10 is second, then I’ll believe that too.
And as for the “more math” part of Eli’s post, where he says there is a 75% chance that the Big East semifinalists will make up the Final Four, I’d take that bet any day. First, that’s not “math,” that’s a prediction, and an arbitrary one at that. Second, for that prediction to come true, Pitt, UConn, Louisville and a fourth Final Four team (Villanova/Marquette/Syracuse/West Virginia) all have to be in separate regions. It’s likely that Pitt, UConn and Louisville will be split up, but I’d say that the chances of all three making the Final Four (PLUS a fourth Big East team emerging from the fourth region) aren’t quite 75%. Maybe 5%, and that’s being generous.
Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s square off tonight in the final of the WCC tourney (9 PM ET, and why isn’t this game on national television?), and with the Gaels’ #45 RPI, they could really use a win to guarantee a NCAA tourney berth. The good news is that their leading scorer, Patrick Mills, is back, scoring 12 points in 35 minutes in yesterday’s win over Portland. If Saint Mary’s loses to the ‘Zags, it would put the Gaels squarely on the bubble. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has Saint Mary’s as a #10 seed, but I think that assumes that the committee will take Mills’ injury into account. After all, he was out of the lineup for three of the team’s five losses. Lunardi says that the Gaels are safe, but they don’t have a marquee win and are just 2-2 against the RPI top 50, so anything can happen.
But let’s move on to the “major” conference tournaments that will take place this week. I’m going to tackle these one-by-one in the order of Jeff Sagarin’s conference rankings.
ACC
Lunardi projects six ACC teams – UNC, Wake Forest, Duke, Clemson, Florida State and Boston College – to make the Dance, and of those teams only BC really has anything to worry about. The Eagles (#57 RPI) are probably safe, but a first round loss on Thursday against Virginia might make BC squirm a bit on Selection Sunday.
Miami, Maryland and Virginia Tech are three teams that could play themselves into an NCAA berth with a nice ACC tourney run. What do I mean by “a nice run”? Well, Virginia Tech and Miami square off on Thursday, so if whomever wins gives North Carolina a great game on Friday, that might be enough. The Hurricanes are a bit closer than the Hokies, so VT would probably have to pull the upset against the Tar Heels to earn a bid. Miami could potentially get in with an 18-12 record and a #53 RPI (against the 26th-toughest schedule) if they were to lose to North Carolina.
Meanwhile, Maryland has to beat N.C. State on Thursday and then (at least) pull the upset against the seemingly vulnerable Demon Deacons on Friday.
As far as #1 seeds go, North Carolina pretty much sewed one up with their second win against Duke on Sunday. Neither the Blue Devils nor Demon Deacons would seem to have a shot at one of the other three #1 seeds. It’s conceivable that Duke would be able to make a case if they win the ACC Tournament (beating Wake and UNC in the process) and a few of the teams ranked ahead of them have poor conference showings. Despite the brutal schedule (#3) and stellar RPI (3), Duke is realistically shooting for a #2 or #3 seed.
Week 4 in college football kicked off with a bang as Louisville pulled off a small upset, beating Kansas State 38-29 at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium Wednesday night.
Cardinals’ quarterback Hunter Cantwell had the game of his collegiate career, completing 22 of 33 passes for 274 yards and two touchdowns. He got into a nice rhythm several times during the game and was able to pick apart K-State in the short, to mid-range passing game.
While Cantwell was impressive, UL freshman running back Victor Anderson stole the show, rushing for 176 yards and three touchdowns on only 18 carries. He had touchdown runs of 29, 56 and 27 yards, and flashed incredible speed and athleticism on every score. And while Anderson was incredibly impressive, it’s only fair to note that Cardinals’ senior back Brock Bolen pounded his way for 104 yards on 23 carries. Bolen was essentially the backbone of UL’s offense Wednesday night.
While Cantwell and Anderson shinned for Louisville, Cougars’ quarterback Josh Freeman threw two interceptions, the first of which the Cardinals turned into a touchdown and took a 14-7 lead. Freeman did manage to throw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns, but the lack of a running game allowed UL’s front seven to focus on crashing the pocket and forced the Cougars to rely on the pass. Falling behind by two touchdowns didn’t help Freeman and the K-State offense, either.
