Olympiakos has plucked another young NBA player in his prime. Denver’s Linas Kleiza is headed to Greece.

Per Yahoo Sports…

Denver Nuggets restricted free-agent forward Linas Kleiza(notes) has agreed to a two-year, $12.2 million contract with Greek team Olympiakos, his agent Bill Duffy told Yahoo! Sports on Monday.

The contract has an opt-out clause, which allows Kleiza to again become a restricted free agent next summer.

Duffy said that while Kleiza attracted interest from other NBA teams, his client’s restricted free-agency status limited his options.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again — the NBA needs to do away with restricted free agency. Most RFAs are left in limbo for a year, and instead of playing the season for peanuts, guys like Josh Childress and Linas Kleiza are bolting for Europe. If they were unrestricted, they would have probably stayed in the NBA.

Everyone loves to focus on the lottery, but there are good players to be had in the late first round as well. A while back, I put together a list of the top second round picks of the modern era, so now I’m going to focus on those players that were drafted between pick #21 and pick #30 in the first round. (Note: If a player was drafted in the second round, even if they were taken with the #29 or #30 pick overall, they are ineligible to make the list. Sorry, Gilbert.) Since there are more star-quality players available in the 20′s, I’m limiting this list to the last ten drafts (i.e. 1999 through 2008).

It is sometimes tough to rank older players with newer players, but even if a younger player holds more trade value right now, I am going to take into account each player’s entire career. For the young guys, I have to project a little bit, so keep that in mind as you read and react. I feel great about the top eight guys, but there are a few players that missed the list that are pretty interchangeable with #9 and #10.

On with the list…

10. Aaron Brooks, Rockets
26th pick in 2007
I had to decide between Brooks and Nate Robinson here and went with Brooks given his fine performance in the playoffs this season (16.8 ppg, 3.4 apg, 42% from 3PT) and how Robinson’s numbers are a little inflated playing for Mike D’Antoni. Brooks is not a natural point guard, but his sharpshooting is a good fit given Houston’s inside-out attack. He’s small, but he’s quick and is able to score at the rim when given some daylight. The Rockets feel good enough about Brooks to trade Rafer Alston away midseason, so you have to like his upside.

9. Kendrick Perkins, Celtics
27th pick in 2003 (drafted by the Grizzlies)
In the world of “big” guys, I also considered Boris Diaw here, but it’s tough to pass on a 6’10″ 24-year-old who averaged 8.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game on a team loaded with vets. Without Kevin Garnett in the playoffs, the C’s needed Perkins to step up his game and he responded with 11.9 points, 11.6 boards and 2.6 blocks per contest. He also did a pretty good job on Dwight Howard, who had his worst numbers of the playoffs against the Celtics.

8. David Lee, Knicks
30th pick in 2005
Isiah Thomas couldn’t make a good trade to save his life, but he could spot talent in the draft. Lee has turned out to be a steal with the last pick in the 2005 draft. He’s an athletic lefty whose best traits are his hustle and smarts. In just his fourth season, Lee averaged 16.0 points and 11.7 rebounds per game, which made him one of the most consistent double-double guys in the league. His stock is so high right now that the Knicks might be able to use him as trade bait in order to land Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. Maybe they’d be better off sticking with Lee…

7. Gerald Wallace, Bobcats
25th pick in 2001 (drafted by the Kings)
Even though he plays in Charlotte, Wallace has a reputation for being one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. Throw in the fact that he’s a capable scorer (15.9 ppg last season) and you have one of the best all-around small forwards in the league. His jumper is improving (if slowly), but he’s at his best when he’s using his superior athleticism to attack the rim. If he had landed in a bigger market or for a better team, he wouldn’t be playing so far under the radar.

6. Andrei Kirilenko, Jazz
24th pick in 1999
AK-47 was named to just one All-Star game, but has made three All-Defensive teams. Let’s not forget that Kirilenko was Utah’s leading scorer in the 2002-03 season, the year before the arrival of Carlos Boozer. Then came Deron Williams, and Kirilenko has settled into a more complementary role as a key defender, shotblocker and rebounder. He has had an up-and-down few years in Utah, but the fact remains that he was one of the top picks of the late first round.

5. Tayshaun Prince, Pistons
23rd pick in 2002
At Kentucky, Prince was known more for his offense than he was for his defense. The reverse has been true since he entered the league in 2002. He was named to the All-Defensive 2nd Team four straight times, while averaging better than 13.2 points per game for the last five seasons. His jumper is ugly, but it goes in, as evidenced by his 40% accuracy from long range last season. Simply stated, he is one of the most productive “glue guys” in the league and he was instrumental in the Pistons’ solid run over the last seven years.

4. Kevin Martin, Kings
26th pick in 2004
Here’s a guy that has made himself into one of the best scorers in the league. He has always possessed great quickness, but has gone from shooting 20% behind the arc in his rookie season to just over 41% last season. He can score in a multitude of ways and was second in the league in free throws attempted with 10.3 per game (behind Dwight Howard and ahead of Dwyane Wade). Moreover, he’s just 26, so he has room to grow.

3. Josh Howard, Mavericks
29th pick in 2003
Sure, he’s kind of a knucklehead, but there’s no doubt that Howard has game. He slipped in the draft because of an apparent lack of upside. When he came out of college, he wasn’t a superb athlete and wasn’t great at any one thing, but he was a very good all-around player, which is why he won the ACC Player of the Year in his senior season at Wake Forest. In the NBA, he has steadily improved his offensive repertoire and has a reputation for being one of the better defensive small forwards in the league. He was named to the All-Star game in 2007 and is often used as evidence that it’s not always smart to pass on a proven college upperclassman for perceived upside.

2. Rajon Rondo, Celtics
21st pick in 2006 (drafted by the Suns)
Rondo slipped in the ’06 draft due to concerns about his non-existent jumper. As a second-year player, he successfully molded his game to fit with veterans Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to help lead the Celtics to a title in 2008. He was named to the All-Defensive team in 2009, and when Garnett went out with a knee injury late in the year, Rondo turned it on come playoff time. In the first round against the Bulls, he averaged a stellar 19.4 points, 11.6 assists and 9.3 rebounds, including two triple-doubles. Due to his work ethic, energy and the tutelage of Doc Rivers, he’s quickly becoming one of the best young point guards in the game. But can he keep this career trajectory once the Big Three start departing and defenses can afford to pay more attention to him?

1. Tony Parker, Spurs
28th pick in 2001
Parker is just 27 and already has had an illustrious career. He has been named to three All-Star games, and was the Finals MVP in 2007 when it became apparent that the Cavs didn’t have a guy that could stay in front of him. In fact, there are very few players in the league who can effectively defend Parker, who is one of the very best at getting to the rim in transition and off the pick and roll. He has helped the Spurs win three titles, and it has been interesting to see his transformation from a 19 year-old rookie to wily veteran over the past eight seasons. It will be even more interesting to see how he adjusts to being “The Guy” as Tim Duncan gets older and less productive. Parker went late in the first round because he was a foreigner (remember, international scouting was not as sharp in 2001) and because he was/is short and slight. But he really benefited from the rules changes that reduced hand checking on the perimeter and has flourished since he joined the league.

Honorable Mention: Nate Robinson, Boris Diaw, Delonte West, Rudy Fernandez, Morris Peterson, Samuel Dalembert, Leandro Barbosa, Courtney Lee, Jarrett Jack, Kenny Thomas, John Salmons, Jordan Farmar, George Hill, Linas Kleiza and Beno Udrih.

What can we draw from this list?

1. There are four small forwards — Howard, Kirilenko, Wallace and Prince — that are all known more for their defense than their offense, and Howard and Prince both scored in the high teens in college.

2. There are three point guards on the list. Two were deemed too small (Parker and Brooks) and the other couldn’t shoot (Rondo).

3. There is a power forward (Lee) and an off guard (Martin) who are known for their tremendous work ethics. Lee is a big-time hustler on the court and Martin is a gym rat who has transformed himself into one of the best scorers in the league.

4. There’s a 6’10″ center (Perkins) who came to the NBA straight out of high school. It’s especially tough to find a good big late in the first round, as anyone with size and talent is usually long gone by now. Check out this list of 6’10″ or taller players that were drafted in the late first round over the last 10 years: Pavel Podkolzine, Iakovos Tsakalidis, Kosta Koufos, Dalibor Bagaric, Primoz Brezec, Johan Petro, Mamadou NDiaye, Tiago Splitter, David Harrison, Samuel Dalembert, Jeff Foster, Nenad Krstic, Ryan Anderson, Josh Boone, Brian Cook, Serge Ibaka, Ian Mahinmi, Donte Greene, Leon Smith and Joel Freeland. While there are a few contributors on that list, the vast majority ride the bench or aren’t even in the league.

The lesson? Go small. Look for a player with an impressive work ethic. Try to find someone that has the physical tools to play good defense or a point guard that is too quick to be covered. These are the types of players that seemed flawed, but have the potential to develop into first round steals.

After their tough, emotional loss in Game 1, conventional wisdom said that the Nuggets would be reeling and wouldn’t be able to put up much of a fight in Game 2. But these aren’t your father’s Nuggets. With the addition of Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony’s transformation after playing in Beijing with Team USA, these Nuggets are tough-minded.

It took a while for Denver to get going. The Lakers came out like gangbusters and had a 13-point lead with 2:40 to play in the second quarter. But the Nuggets went on a 14-2 run over the last 160 seconds to narrow the lead to one at halftime.

The Lakers built a seven-point lead in the middle of the third quarter, but once again, the Nuggets responded and cut the lead to one at the end of the period. In the fourth quarter, it was the Nuggets turn to build a seven-point lead with 9:06 to play. At this point, I was a little perplexed by George Karl’s decision to go with J.R. Smith (1-6, 3 points) instead of Linas Kleiza (5-8, 16 points, 8 rebounds) down the stretch. Smith didn’t play horribly in the final minutes, but he didn’t do anything positive either. The Lakers fought back, and with 1:00 to play and the Nuggets up two, Smith turned the ball over (his third of the night). Karl obviously knows his team far better than I do, but Kleiza simply played much, much better tonight and probably should have been in the game.

There were a couple of missed calls down the stretch. Kobe traveled before he made his three to tie the game at 99-99 and during a jumpball with 0:18 to play, the refs missed Smith slicing through the circle before the ball was touched. That should have been Laker ball out of bounds, but since the refs missed Kobe’s travel, things evened out.

Chauncey Billups made 5 of 6 free throws down the stretch to seal the 106-103 win. Derek Fisher had a shot from the corner to tie the game at the buzzer but he missed the rim.

Carmelo Anthony had another great game, posting 34 points, nine rebounds (five offensive) and four assists. Chauncey Billups had 27 points, while Kleiza and Kenyon Martin chipped in with 16 apiece. Kobe led the Lakers with 32 points, while Trevor Ariza added 20 points (on 6 of 7 shooting) and four steals. Pau Gasol added 17 points and 17 rebounds.

I know that Phil Jackson and Kobe Bryant have a long history with Derek Fisher, but he went just 1 of 9 from the field tonight, and is shooting under 30% in the last two playoff series. It might be time to give Jordan Farmar a few more minutes.

The NBA free agency period starts July 1st, and as that date approaches I’ll preview this year’s free agent class in more detail. But for now, I’d like to take a look at which teams have the cap flexibility to be major players in free agency this summer. (Mind you, just because a team has cap space, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll use it. Just sayin’.)

Not familiar with the NBA salary cap? Here’s a quick primer…

1. The cap for the 2008-09 season was $58.7 million. The general consensus is that the cap will stay flat or decrease slightly. We’ll assume it sticks at $58.7 million.

2. If a team is over the cap, the only free agents they can sign are their own, unless they elect to sign a player to the mid-level exception (~$5.8 million per season), the bi-annual exception (~$2.0) or to a minimum contract. (The bi-annual exception may not be used in two consecutive years.)

3. If a team is under the cap, they can sign any free agent they want as long as they do not exceed the cap. They can also take on salary via trade up to the cap, so a team like the Grizzlies (with almost $20 million in cap space) could conceivably trade their first round pick to the Suns for Amare Stoudemire or to the Raptors for Chris Bosh.

Here’s a list of the bigger names in the free agent pool this summer:

Unrestricted: Carlos Boozer, Ben Gordon, Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, Andre Miller, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, Hedo Turkoglu, Allen Iverson, Mehmet Okur, Rasheed Wallace, Mike Bibby, Anderson Varejao, Grant Hill, Kyle Korver, Trevor Ariza, Brandon Bass, Chris Andersen, Zaza Pachulia, Chris Wilcox and Drew Gooden

Restricted: David Lee, Paul Millsap, Ray Felton, Josh Childress*, Marvin Williams, Glen Davis, Ramon Sessions, Charlie Villanueva, Nate Robinson, Leon Powe, Hakim Warrick, Linas Kleiza, Jarrett Jack and Shannon Brown

* It appears that if Childress does return to the NBA, the Hawks still hold his rights, so he would be a restricted free agent.

There are eight teams that project to have more than $5.8 million (the value of the mid-level exception) in cap space this summer:

Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Cap Space: $19.7 million
Memphis has been reluctant to spend for several years now and is probably one of the franchises that’s struggling the most in the current economy. I lived in Memphis for three years, and given its small size and overall lack of wealth, I always thought that it would struggle to support a professional sports team. With a core of Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies have to feel pretty good about what they have at off guard, small forward and center. The big decision this summer is what to do with restricted free agent Hakim Warrick. When dealing with bad teams, numbers can be deceptive, because no matter what, somebody has to score and rebound, right? Warrick’s PER (16.91) is #24 amongst power forwards, so ideally he’d be coming off the bench for a playoff team. The Grizzlies projected cap space assumes they make the qualifying offer to Warrick ($3.0 million). Memphis is one of those teams that could really use the services of a Carlos Boozer, David Lee or Paul Millsap, but in this economy, are the Grizzlies willing to make that kind of a commitment? They could try to make a run at Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire next summer, but the odds are long that either guy would want to play for the Grizzlies.

Detroit Pistons
Projected Cap Space: $19.6 million
Unless they’re thinking about keeping Rasheed Wallace around, the Pistons don’t really have any big decisions this summer when it comes to personnel already on the roster. The Chauncey Billups-for-Allen Iverson swap was designed to free up cap space and in those terms, it worked beautifully. Sure, the Pistons gave up any chance of a deep run in the playoffs by trading Billups away, but the writing was on the wall – i.e. the Pistons weren’t going to the Finals – so Dumars chose to start the rebuilding process earlier rather than later. Neither Iverson nor ‘Sheed are likely to be back, but Wallace has a better chance of returning, however slight. The Pistons appear to be building around Tayshaun Prince and Rodney Stuckey (and Rip Hamilton?), but those are complementary players, not franchise-types. Joe Dumars built a winner without a true franchise player before, and he can do it again. The Pistons need size. Keep an eye on the Jazz. If Boozer opts out, he could land in Detroit, but if he doesn’t, the Pistons could go after Paul Millsap since the Jazz would have a tough time matching a substantial offer.

Atlanta Hawks
Projected Cap Space: $17.8 million
Mike Bibby, Zaza Pachulia and Flip Murray are unrestricted free agents and Marvin Williams is a restricted free agent, so the Hawks could have a very different roster heading into next season. Both the Hawks and Bibby are saying the right things, but can the two come to terms on a fair deal? There’s no way that Bibby is worth what he made last season ($15.0 million), but how much is he willing to come down to return to Atlanta? Looking at this list, would there be another team wiling to offer him more than the mid-level? Memphis? Detroit? Toronto? Minnesota? Nope. Oklahoma City? Sacramento? Probably not. Portland? Maybe. The point is that in this economy, by playing hardball the Hawks should be able to re-sign him for a two-year deal averaging around $7 million per season. I’m not sure that he’s even worth that at this point in his career (remember – he’s 31), but if the Hawks want him back, they need to be careful not to overpay. Likewise, is Marvin Williams worth the $7.4 million it’s going to cost to keep him around for another season? He’s just 22 and already has the 13th-best PER amongst small forwards. Then there’s Josh Childress, who can return from Greece as a restricted free agent. With all these decisions and all this potential cap space, the Hawks promise to be one of the most interesting franchises to watch this summer.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected Cap Space: $17.1 million
With a young, improving core of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, as well as a likely top 5 draft pick, the Thunder seem primed for a good season. Westbrook is more of an off guard than a pure point, so they could use a lead guard, as well as some help on the front line. They could go after Boozer, Millsap or David Lee, and are one of the teams that could easily snatch Ramon Sessions away from my beloved Bucks. The question is whether they’ll go after inexpensive young guys that can grow with Durant and Westbrook (Lee, Millsap, Sessions) or go after an established star (Boozer, Kidd, Bibby, etc.) with the thinking that they’ll become instant contenders. With their cap space, the Thunder could afford to add two or three starter- or star-level players, or they could elect to bide their time and try to add a superstar next summer.

Sacramento Kings
Projected Cap Space: $13.7 million
The Kings have good cap flexibility, but have serious lack of talent. They have one star – Kevin Martin – who is locked up for the next four years at a pretty reasonable price. Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes have some upside, while Andres Nocioni and Francisco Garcia are decent role players. The Kings made the mistake in giving Beno Udrih a long-term deal, so now they have to pay him an average of almost $7 millon over the next four years. Ugh. All right, so how do they turn this thing around? First, they have to hit in the draft. Ideally, that means Blake Griffin, whom they can pencil in at power forward for the next five years. Then they would need to find a good young point guard (Sessions?) that can grow with the Kings’ young lineup. Throw in a value at small forward (Josh Childress, Marvin Williams, Trevor Ariza, etc.) and the Kings would be much better next season. Not “playoff” better, but they’d probably win 10-15 more games. Baby steps.

Toronto Raptors
Projected Cap Space: $11.6 million
What are the chances of Chris Bosh re-signing if the Raptors have another miserable year? By trading Jermaine O’Neal to Miami for Shawn Marion (and his expiring contract), the Raptors have some financial flexibility this summer. If Toronto were to sign a premier big man like Carlos Boozer, David Lee or Paul Millsap, they would improve their chances of winning this season (and keeping Bosh around) while also giving themselves some insurance if Bosh bolts. Toronto already has two of the most important pieces to winning in the NBA: (1) a good point guard in Jose Calderon and (2) a good big man in Bosh. But over the last couple of years they have struggled to find the right complementary pieces. O’Neal didn’t work out, but the Raptors were 10-6 over their last 16 games with Marion, so one option would be to bring the Matrix back at a discounted price. Another free agent to keep an eye on is Ben Gordon. With his ability to put the ball in the hoop, he would thrive in an up-tempo attack and could really take the pressure off of Bosh and Calderon. Besides, the Raptors need a shooting guard now that the 33-year-old Anthony Parker looks to be over the hill.

Portland Trail Blazers
Projected Cap Space: $9.8 million
The Blazers are unique on this list in that they are a playoff team that has some cap space, but they won’t have to use it to keep their core players in town. Portland could add a legitimate star-level player to a roster already loaded with talent. They are set on the wing with Brandon Roy, Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw, and are pretty strong up front with LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla, so the major need seems to be at the point where Steve Blake is more of a placeholder than the point guard of the future. Jerryd Bayless is also a possibility, but his playing time dried up as the Blazers got closer to the playoffs. There are a number of good point guards available – Jason Kidd, Andre Miller, Mike Bibby – or the Blazers could go younger and try to pry Ramon Sessions or Ray Felton away from the Bucks and Bobcats, respectively. Portland has some good mojo working, and the guys least likely to upset the apple cart are experienced, pass-first points like Kidd or Miller. The Blazers could offer them more than the mid-level, which gives Portland the inside track on either player (if they want it).

Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected Cap Space: $7.8 million
The T-Wolves actually look like they’re turning things around. They have an up-and-coming big man (Al Jefferson) and they hit in the draft, finding an efficient, heady power forward (Kevin Love). If I’m running this team – and I’m more qualified than Bill Simmons, who is campaigning for the position – I’d move Randy Foye to off guard and tell him to shoot 200-250 three-pointers per day this summer. Then I’d use my cap space to steal Ramon Sessions away from the Bucks. Mike Miller could play small forward for another season, so I’d use my draft pick on the best player available, preferably a shooting guard who could join Sessions and Foye in a three-guard rotation. Josh Childress and/or Marvin Williams would be a great fit, and might be had for the mid-level (or use the cap space on Childress/Williams and sign Sessions to the mid-level). I’d end up with a core of Sessions, Foye, Childress/Williams, Love and Jefferson – all under the age of 26. Like a fine wine, I’d wait a couple of years for this group to age, and add a piece here or there to complement this core. We’d be in the playoffs by 2011, I’m telling you…

With the trade deadline in the rear view mirror and players tied to their current teams at least until the summer, it’s a good time to take a look ahead at the free agent class of 2009. Given the state of the economy and how so many teams are saving up for the class of 2010, some are suggesting that this summer’s free agency could be a “nuclear winter” of sorts, no pun intended. The salary cap and luxury tax thresholds are likely to decline for the first time in years and that has GMs and owners around the league scrambling to cut salary where they can.

There are three types of free agents: players with early termination options (ETO) or player options (PO), restricted free agents and unrestricted free agents.

Players with ETOs or POs

This group includes Kobe Bryant, Jermaine O’Neal, Al Harrington, Jamal Crawford and Mehmet Okur, but it’s highly unlikely that any of these guys will hit the open market given the kind of money they’ll be making by extending their respective contracts. Of this group, Hedo Turkoglu, Anderson Varejao and maybe Carlos Boozer are the only big names that are likely to hit free agency. Boozer has already stated that he’s going to opt out, but he may decide against it if he doesn’t come back strong from his injuries. Turkoglu — the reigning Most Improved Player — is having another nice season, but he’s not playing quite as well as last year. Still, he can command more than the $7.3 million he’s due to make next season. Varejao could stay with the Cavs and make $6.2 million next season, but he and his agent (Dan Fegan) have been looking for more. Varejao wants a long term deal but it seems he and the Cavs disagree on how much he’s actually worth.

For the most part, guys in this group are going to be conservative and play out their contracts.

Restricted Free Agents

RFAs hardly ever change uniforms, but in this economic climate there are teams that are unlikely to match substantial offers for their restricted free agents. The other issue is that once a team signs a RFA to an offer sheet, the player’s team has a full week to match the offer. Most teams know instantly whether or not they’re going to match, but they take the full week so that the other team can’t make any other offers because its money is tied up in the offer sheet. The NBA should reduce this period to three or four days so that teams are more willing to make offers to RFAs. Or better yet, it should eliminate restricted free agency completely to avoid Josh Childress-type cases in the future.

(Stepping down from my soapbox…)

Anyway, the list of restricted free agents includes Childress, David Lee, Paul Millsap, Nate Robinson, Charlie Villanueva, Ramon Sessions (ESPN says he’s restricted though HoopsHype and ShamSports show Sessions as an UFA), Marvin Williams, Raymond Felton, Leon Powe and Linas Kleiza.

The Knicks can’t afford to keep both Lee and Robinson and sign LeBron or some other max-type free agent next summer, so if someone comes along and offers either player a substantial contract, it is unlikely that the Knicks will be able to match. Millsap played great in Boozer’s absence, and they are very similar players so it is unlikely that Utah can afford to keep both. Millsap looks like a potential All-Star and would be a cheaper option, but only time will tell if the Jazz have the balls to let Boozer walk.

Childress will probably return to the U.S. after a year playing in Greece. I suspect he’ll be a mid-level type guy, which increases the number of potential suitors as teams that are over the cap can still sign a player at the mid-level. The Bucks are in financial trouble and they need to get rid of Michael Redd or Richard Jefferson if they hope to keep both Sessions and Villanueva. Both players are having career years under Scott Skiles, but it’s unclear if the Bucks will be able to keep them. I’d expect Sessions to be a mid-level guy (and should be a solid starter for that price), while Charlie V might command a bit more. There are still questions about his heart, but if he’s thriving under Skiles, could he really be lacking toughness and drive? The Bucks have been hit by injuries to Redd and Andrew Bogut but are still holding onto the #8 playoff spot in the East, so they’d be wise to keep this core together if they can.

The Bobcats’ decision to draft D.J. Augustin made Raymond Felton expendable, so he could probably be had for the right price. I’m guessing that he’s a mid-level guy as well, though he and his agent will probably want more. Leon Powe and Linas Kleiza are both productive bench players and if the offer sheet is big enough, the Celtics and Nuggets (respectively) may decide not to match.

Unrestricted Free Agents

This group includes Ben Gordon, Lamar Odom, Shawn Marion, Allen Iverson, Ron Artest, Mike Bibby, Andre Miller, Jason Kidd, Rasheed Wallace, Trevor Ariza and Brandon Bass. Most of these players are older and on the decline, but they can still play. Veteran players in this group might be shocked by the kind of pay cut that they’re going to have to take in today’s climate. The days of 30+ year-old stars (not superstars) signing max or near-max deals are over, at least for a while. I bet all of these guys sign for less than $10 million per season. (I know…that’s peanuts, right?)

Gordon, Ariza and Bass are younger and could still be on the rise if they find the right team. Gordon seems to think he’s a starter and should be paid as such, but he’s small and doesn’t have a reputation for being a very good defender. He can really score though. If some team wants to pay him starter’s money, he’d be a good match to play alongside a bigger point guard who could cover the opponent’s off guard (Utah, Denver, Detroit?) or he needs to go to a team that doesn’t emphasize the defensive end.

Ariza continues to play well for the Lakers, but since he’s a much cheaper option than Odom, he’s probably going to be staying put. Bass had a terrific season two years ago, and is really coming on after a slow start this season. He’s just 23 and has some upside. I’d expect some team will sign him to a deal averaging in the $3-$4 million range, which would make him one of the best bargains of the summer.

So where will these players end up? Your guess is as good as mine. There are only a handful of teams — Atlanta, Detroit, Memphis (of course), Minnesota, Oklahoma City, Portland, Sacramento and Toronto — with the cap space (~$7 million or more) to sign a good player for another team, so I think there may be quite a few starter-level players/borderline stars signing mid-level deals this season. Playoff contenders that are over the cap won’t be able to pass up a good player for $5 million per season and there should be a number of guys that fit the bill this summer.