Originally published December 11, 2008.
Updated November 12, 2009.

The phrase “Summer of 2010″ has become part of the NBA lexicon. Teams have been tripping over each other trying to clear cap space for next summer so that they can sign an impact free agent (or two). With that in mind, let’s take a look ahead at the free agent crop of 2010.

Below is a list of the top 10 players that are likely to be free agents next summer. I’m ranking them based mostly on talent, but it’s also important to note each player’s age in July of 2010, as that will affect his value and skill. For example, a 31 year-old Paul Pierce holds much more value than a 33 year-old Paul Pierce. Get the drift?

1. LeBron James, SF (26 years-old)
James is the golden boy of this free agent class and is the player that every franchise would love to land next summer. He will have just turned 26 and whatever team is lucky enough to sign him will – barring injury – enjoy four or five years of the best basketball of his career. The Cavs have gone “all in” this season, signing Shaq, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, and re-signing Anderson Varejao. In the process, they gave up whatever cap space they would have enjoyed next summer. If Cleveland’s season ends in disappointment once again, it wouldn’t be surprising if LeBron decides to take his game elsewhere. Three teams — the Knicks, Bulls and Nets — jump out as good fits. LeBron has stated that his top priority is to become a “global icon” and playing in Manhattan would serve that purpose. If the Knicks are able to unload Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries before the trade deadline, then they’ll have the projected cap space to sign two top players on this list, and that might be enough to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line. Plus, he’s familiar with Mike D’Antoni (via the duo’s work with Team USA) and the Knicks’ up-tempo system would be a near-perfect fit for LeBron’s skill set. The Nets offer a better supporting cast (led by Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the (impending?) move to Brooklyn would boost the franchise’s profile. Chicago has a number of pieces already in place (Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich) and is bigger market than Cleveland. But would LeBron want to go to the franchise that Michael Jordan built?
Note: Player option (PO)

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John Hollinger writes in his latest PER Diem (Insider subscription required) that LeBron’s best bet for long term success may not be in Cleveland…or New York…or New Jersey/Brooklyn…

And it’s especially worth noting that if the Cavs are back in the 45-50 win range this season, King James might be a much more portable commodity this coming summer. If he’s looking at a Cleveland lineup with one majestically talented player and several spare parts, one would think the comparison to such arrangements in New York or New Jersey wouldn’t be dramatically different.

But those aren’t close to being the most palatable changes of uniform available. For instance, it bears mentioning that joining the Chicago squad LeBron’s team lost to Thursday night would be dramatically different. With a young star point guard, quality big men and lots of secondary help, the Bulls — who could get as much as $20 million under the cap if John Salmons opts out of his contract, conveniently opening a spot in the lineup for LeBron at the same time — would offer a more clear opportunity for long-term success.

Let me throw out an even crazier proposition — Minnesota. The Wolves will have the cap space to make a run at LeBron, depending on a few variables — or at the very least can get there fairly easily if they know there’s a chance for a player of this caliber. (Declining an option on Ryan Gomes, for instance, is done much more easily if it allows you to replace him with the best player in the league.)

Minnesota is generally thought of as one of the NBA’s least-desirable relocation options, but let’s consider it from a winning perspective. Who would you rather play with for the next five years: Al Jefferson or Anderson Varejao? Kevin Love or Ilgauskas? Ricky Rubio or Mo Williams? Jonny Flynn or West? Ramon Sessions or Daniel Gibson? Next year’s fourth pick or next year’s 24th? It’s obvious, isn’t it?

Don’t get me wrong — the T-Wolves would be a good fit for LeBron, but he’d be a pretty good fit anywhere. I just don’t see him taking his show from one cold, small-market Midwestern city to another cold, small-market Midwestern city. If he doesn’t stay in Cleveland, then there seem to be three real options:

1. Brooklyn Nets
With Devin Harris and Brook Lopez locked up for the next few years, the Nets have two All-Star caliber players already on the roster at two of the toughest positions to fill — point guard and center. Is the penetrating Harris the perfect fit alongside LeBron? Not necessarily, but if the Nets can find a sharpshooting off guard (Courtney Lee?) and face up power forward (a la Rashard Lewis), the Nets would really be in business. Plus, the move to Brooklyn would take away the stigma of playing in New Jersey.

2. Chicago Bulls
It would break the city of Cleveland’s heart if LeBron fled to the Windy City. New York or Brooklyn? Cleveland fans wouldn’t like it, but they’d understand. But if LeBron heads to Chicago, home of the team that stepped on the Cavs’ throats so many times during the Jordan era, the city might explode. From a pure basketball point of view, it’s a nice fit. They already have Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, Kirk Hinrich and maybe Tyrus Thomas. Chicago is also a threat to pry Dwyane Wade out of Miami.

3. New York Knicks
This is more about MSG and the spotlight than who the Knicks have on the roster. Playing in Mike D’Antoni’s system would be nice, and if the Knicks can unload either Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries, they’d have enough cap space to sign another free agent to max deal. This might be a case of the Knicks having to coax Chris Bosh out of Toronto or Amare Stoudemire out of Phoenix before being able to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line.

We’re only a couple of weeks into the season and the talk is already starting. The Cavs have plenty of time to morph into a 60-win team, but right now they don’t look it. And the longer they struggle, the louder the drum beat is going to sound.

This is not how it was supposed to go.

The Cavs were destined to make the Finals and face the Lakers, with LeBron turning in a fantastic Game 7 performance in front of his loyal fans at the Q to bring the city of Cleveland its first championship since 1964. With a title already under his belt, and a few more on the horizon, he would happily re-up for another four or five seasons. Or at the very worst, the Cavs would lose to the more talented Lakers, leaving fans with the feeling that “one more piece” would be all that is needed to finally bring a title to Cleveland. Under that scenario, there would be no way that LeBron could leave, right? Not when the Cavs were thisclose to a title…

Just over a year ago, I wrote that “The Cavs have failed LeBron James,” which was posted about three months before GM Danny Ferry pulled the trigger on the trade that brought Mo Williams to Cleveland. That trade, along with LeBron’s renewed focus and an improved work ethic (which was inspired by his seeing first hand how Kobe prepared during the 2008 Olympics), pushed the Cavs to a league-best 66 wins this season. Williams was named as an alternate to the All-Star Game (after grousing about not being voted in by the coaches) and all was well with the world.

The Cavs received some more good news when Kevin Garnett struggled with injuries down the stretch of the regular season and was eventually shut down for the playoffs. At the time, the Celtics were considered the Cavs’ biggest threat in the East, but KG’s injury might have allowed the Magic, one of four teams that beat the Cavs twice during the year — the Celtics, the Lakers and…um…the Wizards were the other three — to advance to the Conference Finals when they otherwise wouldn’t have survived to face the Cavs. The Magic were a very bad matchup because the Cavs simply didn’t have anyone that could cover Dwight Howard. When they didn’t double-team him, he would make a living on the post, and when they did send another guy, it would free up the Orlando sharpshooters for open jumpers.

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Maybe he’s serious, or maybe he just wants to get the press off his back, but LeBron James told the Cleveland Plain Dealer that if the Cavs’ keep up their winning ways, he’ll consider re-signing this summer.

“You play out this season of course; I will consider it,” James said Saturday before the Cavs practiced at the Pepsi Center.

“The direction we are headed is everything I expected and more.”

This is the first time James has publicly talked about signing this summer instead of waiting until 2010. It is an indication of how pleased James is with the progress the Cavaliers have made this season as they are off to a 22-4 start, the second-best record in the NBA.

“I definitely want to keep an open mind, I will look at everything,” James said. “[The extension] is a good point. I think me and my group have pretty much made good decisions so far and we’ll look at the options and go from there.”

James isn’t committing to anything here other than to “consider” re-signing if the Cavs continue to win. And pledging to consider something is very nebulous thing. No one can actually proved you considered it (or didn’t consider it), so you don’t actually have to.

Regardless, the Cavs have one of the best records in the league and if they make another Finals appearance this year, it’s going to be tough for James to fly the coop in the summer of 2010. The key is not to get swept like they did against the Spurs. Those Finals showed just how far the Cavs (and the whole Eastern Conference, really) were from truly competing for a title. Now that there’s a legitimate contender (favorite?) in the East — the Celtics — a playoff matchup between the C’s and Cavs could have a major impact on the future landscape of the NBA.

Zach Randolph has joined the Clippers, but he can’t play until Cuttino Mobley sees a heart specialist.

The source said Mobley would see a heart specialist on Tuesday.

When asked about ESPN.com’s report by reporters after the Clippers game on Monday, coach Mike Dunleavy said: “From the standpoint of Cuttino’s concern, there’s nothing they have or don’t have that hasn’t been known to us or hasn’t been approved by us and all the other teams he’s played for. Neither one of those guys has had any issues with any of the things that are even being talked about.

“All I know is that if Cuttino has anything, he’s been asymptomatic,” Dunleavy said. “He’s never had any issue with us. There’s never been one time that he missed a practice or missed a game or had any issues in any physical of any kind for us. I mean, I’ve been told by our doctors that the things that are under concern is not something that we haven’t known about or have had any issues with. So hopefully, it won’t be an issue.”

Another source told ESPN.com that Mobley’s condition has been present throughout his career and has never been a grave concern, although the Knicks were prudent in their diligence.

On the surface it would be hard to imagine the Knicks wanting to void the trade because they achieved their goal of clearing Randolph’s contract (which carried two more years and $33.3 million after this season).

No disrespect to Cuttino Mobley, but why would the Knicks even care if he has a heart condition? This trade is mostly a salary dump, though there is the possibility that Mobley and Tim Thomas may see some minutes this season. But really, if Mobley weren’t able to play, would the Knicks really take Randolph (and his salary) back?

If your goal is to free up cap space to make a run at LeBron James in 2010, and you’ve successfully found a sucker to take on Zach Randolph’s contract, then why would you jeopardize it by holding up the deal?

Click here for an in-depth analysis of how the Randolph trade affects the Knicks’ future salary cap flexibility.

GM Donnie Walsh has pulled the trigger on another trade. After trading Jamal Crawford for Al Harrington, Walsh sent Zach Randolph and Mardy Collins to the Los Angeles Clippers for Cuttino Mobley and Tim Thomas. The Knicks have long been looking to rid themselves of Randolph and his fat contract (which runs an additional two seasons at the tune of $33 M), even going so far as to “feature” the forward this season, allowing him to post near-career numbers (20.5 points, 12.4 rebounds), despite shooting just 43% from the field. If there are any Knicks fans wondering why Mike D’Antoni was playing Randolph 35 minutes but only giving 28 to David Lee, this is probably the reason why.

By allowing Randolph to lead the team in scoring and rebounding, the Knicks were simply baiting another team to trade for him. In this case, it was the Clippers that came knocking. The team is 2-11, and still clearly reeling from offseason loss of Elton Brand. Randolph is sort of a “Brand Lite,” in that he can do a lot of the same (offensive) things as Elton, he just can’t do them very efficiently.

But this trade should be examined from a fiscal standpoint, because in this case it’s all about the money. Mobley and Thomas both have contracts that expire in the summer of 2010, when a number of high-profile free agents (including LeBron James) should hit the free agent market. By trading away Randolph, the Knicks are now only on the hook for $20 million. In fact, no Knick is currently under contract for the 2010-11 season, but Eddy Curry ($11.3 million) and Jared Jeffries ($6.9 million) are likely to exercise their player options. And based on his improved play this season, the team is likely to exercise its option on Wilson Chandler’s rookie contract. These three deals roughly equal $20 million. There is also Danilo Gallinari’s rookie contract to consider, but the team will likely take a wait-and-see approach given the young forward’s balky back.

The trade also allows the Knicks to re-sign David Lee and Nate Robinson if they choose to do so. Over the past couple of seasons, the conventional wisdom was that the franchise would not be able to keep both players if they hoped to have the necessary salary cap space to make a run at one or two big-name free agents in 2010. With only $20 million committed, the Knicks could sign one or both players, but they need to be careful not to overpay.

Lee’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is down from a terrific 18.18 last season to a below-average 14.25 this season. Looking at his stats, his numbers have taken a dive in two categories: rebound rate (17.5 to 12.9) and true shooting percentage (60.6 to 56.2). The TS% is not guaranteed to bounce back, but with the departure of Randolph, there should be plenty of rebounds for Lee to gobble up.

So what is he worth? Well, it would be a coup if the Knicks could sign the 6’9” forward to a deal somewhere in the range of $6-$7 million per season. He’d be a nice fit alongside LeBron on the front line, but the truth is that Lee is the kind of player that can fit in with just about anyone.

While Lee has struggled with some of his numbers this season, Robinson is having a career year in D’Antoni’s system. His PER (18.07) represents a healthy jump from his numbers last season (15.70) and is currently the 12th-best amongst point guards. This rise can be mainly attributed to his better shooting and passing under D’Antoni.

Robinson has shown promise, he’s still just 5’9”, so the Knicks need to be careful not to pay him the kind of salary that a bigger guard (posting similar numbers) would command. Still, his production in D’Antoni’s offense has been terrific, so a salary in the $5-$6 million range seems appropriate if the team views him as its point guard of the future.

So, conceivably, the Knicks could have a core of Lee, Robinson and the improved Chandler, along with a payroll of about $33 million heading into the summer of 2010. Assuming a salary cap of $60 million (which is a conservative estimate), that’s plenty of space to sign LeBron. Given the Nets struggles with the move to Brooklyn, it suddenly looks like the Knicks are LeBron’s most likely landing spot. Playing in Manhattan would only serve to boost his monstrous profile – remember, he said his top goal is to be a “global icon” – and he’s already comfortable with D’Antoni after the two worked together the last few summers as part of Team USA. Moreover, D’Antoni’s up-tempo attack would be a perfect (and attractive) fit for LeBron’s skill set.

The Knicks would have an additional $18 million in 2011 once the contracts of Curry and Jeffries are off the books, but if the team is able to rid themselves of those contracts prior to that fateful summer, or if they elect just to re-sign only Lee (or only Robinson) they would have the cap room to sign not one, but two superstars.

Just imagine a lineup of LeBron, Lee, Robinson and Chandler along with the likes of Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire, and D’Antoni’s decision to move to New York instead of Chicago becomes much more clear.