Heading into this year’s playoffs, the conventional wisdom was that if the Cavs won a title, or at least made it to the Finals, LeBron James would likely re-sign to continue his quest for a championship. But if the Cavs suffered another pre-Finals flame out like last year’s Eastern Conference Finals loss to the Magic, he would sign elsewhere.

Well, we all know what happened. An aging but experienced (and cohesive) Celtics team basically dismantled the Cavs in the last three games of the series. Every Celtic knew his role and team flat out executed better, both offensively and defensively.

Where does this leave LeBron? He said after the game that his team had “a plan” and was going to execute that plan. Forget the fact that a few questions before he was asked if he had a plan and answered with a resounding, “No.” Of course he has a plan. He’s being disingenuous when he says that he hasn’t thought about the different scenarios that could play out this postseason and offseason.

He’s clearly not happy with Mike Brown. And he can’t be happy with Antawn Jamison, Shaquille O’Neal or even Mo Williams, who scored well in Game 6, but was very up and down in the series. Shaq won’t be back, and Brown is probably on his way out too. He had a tough task of trying to keep team cohesion with the mid-season introduction of Jamison and the late-season loss of O’Neal. But the bottom line is that over the past two seasons he’s had more talent than his opposition and hasn’t gotten it done. If Dan Gilbert thinks that firing Brown increases the possibility that LeBron will re-up, then he’ll do it in a New York minute.

Lately, we’ve been hearing the rumors that John Calipari is at the top of LeBron’s list, which is funny because he’s a far better recruiter than he is a coach, and recruiting isn’t going to help him at the NBA level. Over the past three seasons — two at Memphis and one at Kentucky — he has taken teams with superior talent and failed to win big games. He is a silver-tongued maestro at getting great prospects to play for him, but they’re usually gone after a year or two and end their collegiate careers with a loss. What about this spells NBA championship?

Cal doesn’t even need to come to Cleveland to coach the King. There’s also the rumor that the Bulls would hire him if they thought it gave them an inside track at signing LeBron. So even before the race for LeBron begins, there may be a mad scramble to pry Calipari out of Kentucky, where he’s spent just one-plus season with a revolving door of a roster.

There’s no doubt about it — LeBron loves this attention. His ego is justifiably immense, and as Adrian Wojnarowski wrote, LeBron and his entourage are going to milk this courtship for all it’s worth. Now that the Cavs’ early exit is complete, everyone expects the King to leave town…

…and that’s the easy thing to do.

If LeBron wants to play on a bigger stage, like New York or Chicago, or even Los Angeles, this is chance to do so. Nearly everyone would understand if he bailed on the Cavs given the way that the team played against the Celtics. Sure, LeBron is partially to blame — his Game 5 performance was pathetic and his nine turnovers in Game 6 largely offset his triple-double — but no one in his camp is going to point the finger at the King. In his world, he is never to blame. He has said that he has “spoiled” us with his usually wonderful play, so when he has a bad game or two, everyone acts like the sky is falling.

But the sky is falling, at least in Cleveland. To paraphrase Bill Simmons, if LeBron bolts, basketball is dead in The Forest City. It will deal another blow to an area of the country that is still reeling from the latest recession.

Does this matter to LeBron? Does he feel responsible to the city of Cleveland? Only he knows.

But make no mistake about it — the easy thing to do is jump ship. It wouldn’t be difficult to leave the incohesive, overpaid roster behind and start anew somewhere else. To stay is to keep fighting, to finish what he started, to embrace the adversity and frustration of the last few seasons and use it as motivation to finally bring the city of Cleveland a championship.

No matter how comfortable LeBron is in northeast Ohio, sticking with the Cavs is the tough thing to do.

Photos from fOTOGLIF

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I’m a little surprised that almost a quarter answered that a Cavs championship would lead to LeBron’s departure because it seems counter-intuitive. If winning is the most important thing, and he just won a title with this roster, why would he bolt?

I understand the argument that he would have just brought a title to Cleveland, so now he can leave, but this isn’t a prison sentence, is it? The idea is to win multiple championships, right? Why start over somewhere else?

If the Cavs do win the title, I can only see LeBron leaving if he, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh all agree to take a little less money to meet up in New York, and that scenario is a longshot at best.

ESPN’s Chad Ford lists nine teams that will have significant cap space next summer. [Insider subscription required.]

1. Nets ($25-$27 million)
2. Knicks ($24 million, assuming they don’t sign anyone for longer than a year)
3. Heat ($20-$22 million)
4. Timberwolves ($16-$18 million)
5. Bulls ($13-$15 million minus whatever they give Tyrus Thomas)
6. Thunder ($14-$15 million)
7. Rockets ($12-$14 million minus whatever they give to Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes)
8. Clippers ($10-$11 million)
9. Kings ($9-$10 million)

This assumes a cap of $53.6 million, which is an optimistic view. The cap could drop below $50 million.

It takes about $14 million of space to sign a max-contract player, so even under these optimistic circumstances, there really are only five teams — the Nets, Knicks, Heat, T-Wolves and Thunder — that will have that kind of space. (The Bulls are likely to keep Thomas and the Rockets are likely to retain Landry and Hayes, though they could make another move here or there to put them in position to add a superstar.)

Of these five teams, the Heat look to be in the best overall shape. Their projected payroll already includes Dwyane Wade, so they have enough to woo another superstar (LeBron, Bosh, Amare, Boozer?) to Miami. They also have a few good young players (Michael Beasley, Daequan Cook and Mario Chalmers) under contract, and the city boasts a great climate and nightlife. But the real draw is playing with Wade, who has already proven that he can win a championship if he has a little help.

The Thunder are compelling because they have a great young nucleus that includes Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green and James Harden. It would be a terrific spot for a big like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire to go if they are serious about trying to win a championship.

The Nets are also appealing, though it would be nice if the team’s location were settled by next summer. Right now the plan is to play in Brooklyn starting in the 2011-12 season, so this would be a good landing spot for a star looking to up his Q score. They have an All-Star caliber point guard (Devin Harris), an up-and-coming off guard (Courtney Lee) and a rising star at center (Brook Lopez). Considering most of the major free agents next summer play off guard, small forward or power forward, the Nets will be a major player.

The Timberwolves are viewed as kind of a mess, and it will be next to impossible for them to attract LeBron or Wade to the Twin Cities. They would have an outside chance at Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire, but they are pretty set up front with Kevin Love and Al Jefferson. Joe Johnson would appear to be the best fit if he were willing to leave Atlanta.

Finally, the Knicks are in great shape financially, but if they can’t retain David Lee, they don’t have a whole lot of talent to attract a superstar who is more interested in titles than he is in playing in the biggest market in the country.

Ultimately, I think the Heat will acquire/sign an impact player like Bosh, Stoudemire or Boozer that will prompt Dwyane Wade to stay put. Those three bigs are likely to have new homes next season, though I think Bosh has the best chance to stay put with the moves that Toronto has made this summer. Joe Johnson will probably stick in Atlanta.

That leaves LeBron. I think the Cavs need to make a Finals appearance to keep him, though since they signed Anderson Varejao to a long-term deal, they don’t have the cap space to sign a big-name free agent to replace Shaquille O’Neal if they elect not to bring him back for another season. Will LeBron stay if the Cavs lose in the Finals and Shaq’s contract expires? The Cavs won’t have a lot of options in the summer of 2010 unless they can swing a trade to bring a superstar in his 20′s to Cleveland to be LeBron’s sidekick.

For a preview of the 2010 free agents, click here.

The new figures for 2009-10 just announced by the league have set the salary cap at $57.7 million per team — down $1 million from $58.7 from 2008-09 — and the luxury-tax threshold at $69.9 million.

More importantly, the league is projecting a much bigger drop (as much as $8 million) heading into the 2010 season.

The official league memorandum, obtained by ESPN.com, forecasts a dip in basketball-related income in the 2009-10 season of 2.5 percent to 5 percent, which threatens to take the 2010-11 cap down some $5 million to $8 million from last season’s $58.7 million salary cap.

A significant drop for the luxury-tax threshold is also projected going into the summer of 2010. If basketball-related income drops by 2.5 percent in 2009-10, league officials are projecting a 2010-11 salary cap of $53.6 million and a luxury-tax line of $65 million. If BRI, as it is referred to in the NBA, decreases by five percent, teams would be looking at a $50.4 million salary cap and a luxury-tax line of $61.2 million in 2010-11.

What does this mean? Well, a team like the New York Knicks, who are projected to have a payroll of about $23 million heading into 2010 would have had about $35 million to spend had the cap stayed at $58 million. That’s plenty of money to sign to superstars. If the cap drops $5-$8 million, it means that they’re projected cap space will be in the $27-$30 million range. That makes signing two “max” players quite tough.

This is probably good news for teams looking to retain their superstars, since they can go over the cap to re-sign players. If the cap does indeed drop to $50 million, it would increase the chances of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson staying put.

Ben Wallace is considering retirement, Anderson Varejao is likely to opt out of the final year of his contract, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas will play out the final year of his.

Wallace is guaranteed the money and has every right to come back and accept the checks under terms of the deal. More likely if he couldn’t play, the Cavs would look to perhaps get insurance to cover some of the salary and look to trade him. He’d be a valuable commodity because of the expiring contract and teams looking to dump salaries covet them.

There is also a possibility that Wallace could negotiate a buyout of his deal and take a percentage of what he’s owed. But even in that case it would potentially make him a huge trade asset. A team could trade for him at the value of his contract ($14 million) and then save money by buying him out.

I’m not quite an NBA salary cap expert, but I have a pretty good understanding of the rules. Even so, I’m not sure what the financial impact would be of what Wallace is considering. Without Wallace and Varejao, but with Ilgauskas, the Cavs are on the hook for about $53 million, possibly a bit less since there are a few contracts included that aren’t 100% guaranteed. If Wallace were to come completely off the books, that would put the Cavs about $5 million under the cap, which really doesn’t help them all that much since they can already sign a player at the mid-level for about $5.8 million. Where a team really gains an advantage is when they have substantially more than the mid-level in cap space.

Wallace could be a great trade asset with his giant salary and willingness to take a buyout. The Cavs could use that trade chip to pry a good player away from a team looking to cut salary. Typically, these aren’t going to be franchise-type players; they’re going to be overpaid stars. Think Michael Redd or Vince Carter, not Dwyane Wade or Chris Paul. Speaking of the Hornets, they tried to give Tyson Chandler away last season and the Cavs would be a good trade partner if they were thinking about finding a better matchup for Dwight Howard next year. The bottom line is that in this economy, the Cavs are in a position of strength because they are motivated to spend.

As for Varejao, he may find that passing on next year’s guaranteed salary of $6.2 million may be a mistake. He’s not going to find anyone willing to pay him the $10 million per season that his camp seems to want, but there is probably a team out there that will give him the security of a four- or five-year deal at the mid-level. He’ll probably be giving up the chance to play for a contender, and may find himself out of the limelight that follows LeBron everywhere he goes. This can be both a blessing and a curse.

Ilgauskas playing out the final year of his contract is no surprise. He’s 33, and he isn’t going to find anyone else to pay him the $11.5 million that the Cavs owe him for next season.

One thing is for sure — Cavs GM Danny Ferry is on the hot seat.

“This is not LeBron James saying this stuff, this is just a media phenomenon here that will pass in time,” Gilbert said while appearing on “CNBC Reports.”

“We’re focused on this year and you know what, so is he, and he’s focused on this year and next year and hopefully a long career in Cleveland, Ohio. We believe that and we think we have a great situation here and we’re off to a great start.”

There’s nothing wrong with the second part, but if Gilbert doesn’t think that his star player is fueling a lot of this speculation, then he better open his eyes.

In fact, Charles Barkley thinks that LeBron is saying too much.

“If I was LeBron James, I would shut the hell up,” Barkley said in the Wednesday interview. “I’m a big LeBron fan. He’s a stud. You gotta give him his props. I’m getting so annoyed he’s talking about what he’s going to do in two years. I think it’s disrespectful to the game. I think it’s disrespectful to the Cavaliers.”

LeBron responded like any fifth-grader would…

“He’s stupid. That’s all I’ve got to say about that,” James said Friday night before the Cavaliers’ game against Golden State.

But back to Gilbert, who two months ago said that the media was to blame for the LeBron speculation, which was an insult to the city of Cleveland.

I asked this question before and I’ll ask it again…

Which is a bigger insult to Cleveland — speculating about a possible LeBron departure or pretending that it won’t happen?

If Gilbert wants this talk to go away, he needs to rein in LeBron, who has given several interviews on the topic, saying that July 1st, 2010 “is going to be a big day.” Gilbert needs to get LeBron to tell the press that he’s not going to comment on his future and that he won’t field any questions about the summer of 2010.

The so-called “bored sportswriters” are going to keep speculating, but at least LeBron won’t be adding fuel to the fire.

The source said Mobley would see a heart specialist on Tuesday.

When asked about ESPN.com’s report by reporters after the Clippers game on Monday, coach Mike Dunleavy said: “From the standpoint of Cuttino’s concern, there’s nothing they have or don’t have that hasn’t been known to us or hasn’t been approved by us and all the other teams he’s played for. Neither one of those guys has had any issues with any of the things that are even being talked about.

“All I know is that if Cuttino has anything, he’s been asymptomatic,” Dunleavy said. “He’s never had any issue with us. There’s never been one time that he missed a practice or missed a game or had any issues in any physical of any kind for us. I mean, I’ve been told by our doctors that the things that are under concern is not something that we haven’t known about or have had any issues with. So hopefully, it won’t be an issue.”

Another source told ESPN.com that Mobley’s condition has been present throughout his career and has never been a grave concern, although the Knicks were prudent in their diligence.

On the surface it would be hard to imagine the Knicks wanting to void the trade because they achieved their goal of clearing Randolph’s contract (which carried two more years and $33.3 million after this season).

No disrespect to Cuttino Mobley, but why would the Knicks even care if he has a heart condition? This trade is mostly a salary dump, though there is the possibility that Mobley and Tim Thomas may see some minutes this season. But really, if Mobley weren’t able to play, would the Knicks really take Randolph (and his salary) back?

If your goal is to free up cap space to make a run at LeBron James in 2010, and you’ve successfully found a sucker to take on Zach Randolph’s contract, then why would you jeopardize it by holding up the deal?

Click here for an in-depth analysis of how the Randolph trade affects the Knicks’ future salary cap flexibility.