ESPN’s Chad Ford lists nine teams that will have significant cap space next summer. [Insider subscription required.]

1. Nets ($25-$27 million)
2. Knicks ($24 million, assuming they don’t sign anyone for longer than a year)
3. Heat ($20-$22 million)
4. Timberwolves ($16-$18 million)
5. Bulls ($13-$15 million minus whatever they give Tyrus Thomas)
6. Thunder ($14-$15 million)
7. Rockets ($12-$14 million minus whatever they give to Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes)
8. Clippers ($10-$11 million)
9. Kings ($9-$10 million)

This assumes a cap of $53.6 million, which is an optimistic view. The cap could drop below $50 million.

It takes about $14 million of space to sign a max-contract player, so even under these optimistic circumstances, there really are only five teams — the Nets, Knicks, Heat, T-Wolves and Thunder — that will have that kind of space. (The Bulls are likely to keep Thomas and the Rockets are likely to retain Landry and Hayes, though they could make another move here or there to put them in position to add a superstar.)

Of these five teams, the Heat look to be in the best overall shape. Their projected payroll already includes Dwyane Wade, so they have enough to woo another superstar (LeBron, Bosh, Amare, Boozer?) to Miami. They also have a few good young players (Michael Beasley, Daequan Cook and Mario Chalmers) under contract, and the city boasts a great climate and nightlife. But the real draw is playing with Wade, who has already proven that he can win a championship if he has a little help.

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The new salary cap figure is out, and it dipped slightly from last season.

The new figures for 2009-10 just announced by the league have set the salary cap at $57.7 million per team — down $1 million from $58.7 from 2008-09 — and the luxury-tax threshold at $69.9 million.

More importantly, the league is projecting a much bigger drop (as much as $8 million) heading into the 2010 season.

The official league memorandum, obtained by ESPN.com, forecasts a dip in basketball-related income in the 2009-10 season of 2.5 percent to 5 percent, which threatens to take the 2010-11 cap down some $5 million to $8 million from last season’s $58.7 million salary cap.

A significant drop for the luxury-tax threshold is also projected going into the summer of 2010. If basketball-related income drops by 2.5 percent in 2009-10, league officials are projecting a 2010-11 salary cap of $53.6 million and a luxury-tax line of $65 million. If BRI, as it is referred to in the NBA, decreases by five percent, teams would be looking at a $50.4 million salary cap and a luxury-tax line of $61.2 million in 2010-11.

What does this mean? Well, a team like the New York Knicks, who are projected to have a payroll of about $23 million heading into 2010 would have had about $35 million to spend had the cap stayed at $58 million. That’s plenty of money to sign to superstars. If the cap drops $5-$8 million, it means that they’re projected cap space will be in the $27-$30 million range. That makes signing two “max” players quite tough.

This is probably good news for teams looking to retain their superstars, since they can go over the cap to re-sign players. If the cap does indeed drop to $50 million, it would increase the chances of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson staying put.

Ben Wallace is considering retirement, Anderson Varejao is likely to opt out of the final year of his contract, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas will play out the final year of his.

Wallace is guaranteed the money and has every right to come back and accept the checks under terms of the deal. More likely if he couldn’t play, the Cavs would look to perhaps get insurance to cover some of the salary and look to trade him. He’d be a valuable commodity because of the expiring contract and teams looking to dump salaries covet them.

There is also a possibility that Wallace could negotiate a buyout of his deal and take a percentage of what he’s owed. But even in that case it would potentially make him a huge trade asset. A team could trade for him at the value of his contract ($14 million) and then save money by buying him out.

I’m not quite an NBA salary cap expert, but I have a pretty good understanding of the rules. Even so, I’m not sure what the financial impact would be of what Wallace is considering. Without Wallace and Varejao, but with Ilgauskas, the Cavs are on the hook for about $53 million, possibly a bit less since there are a few contracts included that aren’t 100% guaranteed. If Wallace were to come completely off the books, that would put the Cavs about $5 million under the cap, which really doesn’t help them all that much since they can already sign a player at the mid-level for about $5.8 million. Where a team really gains an advantage is when they have substantially more than the mid-level in cap space.

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Cavs’ owner Dan Gilbert had this to say about all of the LeBron-to-the-Knicks talk in recent days.

“This is not LeBron James saying this stuff, this is just a media phenomenon here that will pass in time,” Gilbert said while appearing on “CNBC Reports.”

“We’re focused on this year and you know what, so is he, and he’s focused on this year and next year and hopefully a long career in Cleveland, Ohio. We believe that and we think we have a great situation here and we’re off to a great start.”

There’s nothing wrong with the second part, but if Gilbert doesn’t think that his star player is fueling a lot of this speculation, then he better open his eyes.

In fact, Charles Barkley thinks that LeBron is saying too much.

“If I was LeBron James, I would shut the hell up,” Barkley said in the Wednesday interview. “I’m a big LeBron fan. He’s a stud. You gotta give him his props. I’m getting so annoyed he’s talking about what he’s going to do in two years. I think it’s disrespectful to the game. I think it’s disrespectful to the Cavaliers.”

LeBron responded like any fifth-grader would…

“He’s stupid. That’s all I’ve got to say about that,” James said Friday night before the Cavaliers’ game against Golden State.

But back to Gilbert, who two months ago said that the media was to blame for the LeBron speculation, which was an insult to the city of Cleveland.

I asked this question before and I’ll ask it again…

Which is a bigger insult to Cleveland — speculating about a possible LeBron departure or pretending that it won’t happen?

If Gilbert wants this talk to go away, he needs to rein in LeBron, who has given several interviews on the topic, saying that July 1st, 2010 “is going to be a big day.” Gilbert needs to get LeBron to tell the press that he’s not going to comment on his future and that he won’t field any questions about the summer of 2010.

The so-called “bored sportswriters” are going to keep speculating, but at least LeBron won’t be adding fuel to the fire.

Zach Randolph has joined the Clippers, but he can’t play until Cuttino Mobley sees a heart specialist.

The source said Mobley would see a heart specialist on Tuesday.

When asked about ESPN.com’s report by reporters after the Clippers game on Monday, coach Mike Dunleavy said: “From the standpoint of Cuttino’s concern, there’s nothing they have or don’t have that hasn’t been known to us or hasn’t been approved by us and all the other teams he’s played for. Neither one of those guys has had any issues with any of the things that are even being talked about.

“All I know is that if Cuttino has anything, he’s been asymptomatic,” Dunleavy said. “He’s never had any issue with us. There’s never been one time that he missed a practice or missed a game or had any issues in any physical of any kind for us. I mean, I’ve been told by our doctors that the things that are under concern is not something that we haven’t known about or have had any issues with. So hopefully, it won’t be an issue.”

Another source told ESPN.com that Mobley’s condition has been present throughout his career and has never been a grave concern, although the Knicks were prudent in their diligence.

On the surface it would be hard to imagine the Knicks wanting to void the trade because they achieved their goal of clearing Randolph’s contract (which carried two more years and $33.3 million after this season).

No disrespect to Cuttino Mobley, but why would the Knicks even care if he has a heart condition? This trade is mostly a salary dump, though there is the possibility that Mobley and Tim Thomas may see some minutes this season. But really, if Mobley weren’t able to play, would the Knicks really take Randolph (and his salary) back?

If your goal is to free up cap space to make a run at LeBron James in 2010, and you’ve successfully found a sucker to take on Zach Randolph’s contract, then why would you jeopardize it by holding up the deal?

Click here for an in-depth analysis of how the Randolph trade affects the Knicks’ future salary cap flexibility.

GM Donnie Walsh has pulled the trigger on another trade. After trading Jamal Crawford for Al Harrington, Walsh sent Zach Randolph and Mardy Collins to the Los Angeles Clippers for Cuttino Mobley and Tim Thomas. The Knicks have long been looking to rid themselves of Randolph and his fat contract (which runs an additional two seasons at the tune of $33 M), even going so far as to “feature” the forward this season, allowing him to post near-career numbers (20.5 points, 12.4 rebounds), despite shooting just 43% from the field. If there are any Knicks fans wondering why Mike D’Antoni was playing Randolph 35 minutes but only giving 28 to David Lee, this is probably the reason why.

By allowing Randolph to lead the team in scoring and rebounding, the Knicks were simply baiting another team to trade for him. In this case, it was the Clippers that came knocking. The team is 2-11, and still clearly reeling from offseason loss of Elton Brand. Randolph is sort of a “Brand Lite,” in that he can do a lot of the same (offensive) things as Elton, he just can’t do them very efficiently.

But this trade should be examined from a fiscal standpoint, because in this case it’s all about the money. Mobley and Thomas both have contracts that expire in the summer of 2010, when a number of high-profile free agents (including LeBron James) should hit the free agent market. By trading away Randolph, the Knicks are now only on the hook for $20 million. In fact, no Knick is currently under contract for the 2010-11 season, but Eddy Curry ($11.3 million) and Jared Jeffries ($6.9 million) are likely to exercise their player options. And based on his improved play this season, the team is likely to exercise its option on Wilson Chandler’s rookie contract. These three deals roughly equal $20 million. There is also Danilo Gallinari’s rookie contract to consider, but the team will likely take a wait-and-see approach given the young forward’s balky back.

The trade also allows the Knicks to re-sign David Lee and Nate Robinson if they choose to do so. Over the past couple of seasons, the conventional wisdom was that the franchise would not be able to keep both players if they hoped to have the necessary salary cap space to make a run at one or two big-name free agents in 2010. With only $20 million committed, the Knicks could sign one or both players, but they need to be careful not to overpay.

Lee’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is down from a terrific 18.18 last season to a below-average 14.25 this season. Looking at his stats, his numbers have taken a dive in two categories: rebound rate (17.5 to 12.9) and true shooting percentage (60.6 to 56.2). The TS% is not guaranteed to bounce back, but with the departure of Randolph, there should be plenty of rebounds for Lee to gobble up.

So what is he worth? Well, it would be a coup if the Knicks could sign the 6’9” forward to a deal somewhere in the range of $6-$7 million per season. He’d be a nice fit alongside LeBron on the front line, but the truth is that Lee is the kind of player that can fit in with just about anyone.

While Lee has struggled with some of his numbers this season, Robinson is having a career year in D’Antoni’s system. His PER (18.07) represents a healthy jump from his numbers last season (15.70) and is currently the 12th-best amongst point guards. This rise can be mainly attributed to his better shooting and passing under D’Antoni.

Robinson has shown promise, he’s still just 5’9”, so the Knicks need to be careful not to pay him the kind of salary that a bigger guard (posting similar numbers) would command. Still, his production in D’Antoni’s offense has been terrific, so a salary in the $5-$6 million range seems appropriate if the team views him as its point guard of the future.

So, conceivably, the Knicks could have a core of Lee, Robinson and the improved Chandler, along with a payroll of about $33 million heading into the summer of 2010. Assuming a salary cap of $60 million (which is a conservative estimate), that’s plenty of space to sign LeBron. Given the Nets struggles with the move to Brooklyn, it suddenly looks like the Knicks are LeBron’s most likely landing spot. Playing in Manhattan would only serve to boost his monstrous profile – remember, he said his top goal is to be a “global icon” – and he’s already comfortable with D’Antoni after the two worked together the last few summers as part of Team USA. Moreover, D’Antoni’s up-tempo attack would be a perfect (and attractive) fit for LeBron’s skill set.

The Knicks would have an additional $18 million in 2011 once the contracts of Curry and Jeffries are off the books, but if the team is able to rid themselves of those contracts prior to that fateful summer, or if they elect just to re-sign only Lee (or only Robinson) they would have the cap room to sign not one, but two superstars.

Just imagine a lineup of LeBron, Lee, Robinson and Chandler along with the likes of Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire, and D’Antoni’s decision to move to New York instead of Chicago becomes much more clear.

Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports says yes.

With James, the Cavaliers are running out of time. It’s two seasons and counting until he can become a free agent. To listen to Cleveland owner Dan Gilbert dismiss the possibility of James leaving in the summer of 2010 for a bigger market as a product of “bored sportswriters” is beyond laughable. These aren’t bored sportswriters, but a restless superstar and a stable of handlers seemingly sold on his exit.

Gilbert knows better, and so does everyone else inside and outside the Cavaliers. James has one foot out the door in Cleveland. From NBA executives, to Team USA staff and players, to sneak reps: They all believe James has one foot out of the hometown.

Privately, James’ circle had been telling people that they don’t just expect him to leave in the summer of 2010, but in the words of one James associate to a high-ranking league official: He’s gone.

This isn’t an indictment of Cavaliers GM Danny Ferry and the roster he’s constructed around his superstar. He’s done a good, creative job without chips to trade, without high draft picks. This won’t be a basketball decision as much as it will be James believing he needs the platform of a major market to transport himself into a bigger global entity.

Wojnarowski did describe a silver lining…

Here’s the good news for Cavaliers fans: Things can change in two years, and James’ preferred destination, the Nets, is a franchise falling apart. Over the summer, James publicly declared Brooklyn his favorite borough in New York, but the prospects of joining his kindred spirit, rapping mogul Jay-Z, is fading fast.

For James, two things had to happen for him to make the move to the Nets. First, they had to have a nucleus of players minimally comparable to the cast he’d be leaving in Cleveland. Between now and 2010, the Nets desperately need Yi Jianlian and Brook Lopez to develop into frontline players.

But the biggest issue is this: James is never going to play for the New Jersey Nets. Brooklyn, yes. New Jersey? He doesn’t love Jay-Z that much. James needs to be walking into the Brooklyn palace that owner Bruce Ratner has been desperately trying to get financed and constructed for the 2011-2012 season.

Yet now, the Nets are such a vulnerable franchise, the $3.5 billion Atlantic Yards arena project in such doubt, ownership groups from Russia and Dubai have expressed interest in buying out Ratner and taking over the team, Yahoo! Sports has learned. So far, he has resisted, but he’s losing an estimated $30 million a year as court cases and a decaying economy have pushed the project to the brink of collapse.

Apparently, three other teams interest LeBron: the Knicks, the Lakers and the Mavericks.

For their part, Cleveland are “working furiously” to have plenty of cap space in the summer of 2010. If LeBron’s other options aren’t looking good, and the Cavs are able to acquire a guy like Chris Bosh (that’s the rumor, anyway) to play alongside their star, then LeBron might stay. At this point, the Cavs only have three players under contract for the 2010-11 season: Mo Williams, Delonte West and Daniel Gibson. At that point, the team will also have the option to keep J.J. Hickson for three more seasons.

The bad news is that the Cavs don’t have the salary cap flexibility or the trade pieces to make big improvements to the team until then. So they have to hope that LeBron makes this crucial decision later rather than sooner.

But it sounds as if the decision has already been made. Luckily for Cavs fans, a lot can happen in two years.

Offseason Movement: The Cavs swung a good deal by trading Damon Jones and Joe Smith (to the Bucks and Thunder, respectively) for Mo Williams, a dynamic scoring point guard who can also pass the ball (17.2 ppg, 6.3 apg). It’s not clear just how much he’ll get to handle the ball, but the Cavs would be wise to let him take some of the offensive load off of LeBron. Williams was basically a salary dump by the Bucks, who just signed him to a long deal in the summer of 2007, so the Cavs are rolling the dice that he’s worth the dough.
Keep Your Eye On: LeBron’s mood
We’re still two years away, but the time is drawing near. LeBron can opt out of his contract in the summer of 2010, which gives the Cavs two years to make some serious progress. It’s possible that he’ll make his decision after this season, and barring a huge season for the Cavs in 2009-10, he may bolt for Brooklyn or some other destination. The Cavs would like the media to stop talking about this possibility, but the ticking clock is only going to get louder and louder.
The Big Question: Is this team good enough to make a run?
I like the Mo Williams trade, but there’s no guarantee that he and LeBron will jive. The Cavs have a nice yet unexciting roster. Delonte West and Daniel Gibson bring some backcourt punch off the bench, Wally Szczerbiak may or may not have anything left in the tank and Ben Wallace and Zydrunas Ilgauskas make for an aging (and slow) frontcourt. Chemistry will be key.
Outlook: Barring an injury to LeBron, the Cavs will make the playoffs, but how deep will they go? With the Celtics still the cream of the crop in the East, with Philly adding Elton Brand, with Toronto adding Jermaine O’Neal, with the Heat adding Shawn Marion and Michael Beasley, it’s not going to be a cakewalk. I don’t know what it’s like in Cleveland, but from afar, I just get this overwhelming feeling of dread surrounding LeBron’s future. Another Finals appearance might be the only thing that can quiet the pessimists.

Dan Gilbert doesn’t like the speculation that LeBron James is going to leave Cleveland when his contract is up in two years.

Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert says the speculation that LeBron James will leave Cleveland in two years is out of line and “an insult to the city.”

Gilbert says it’s nothing more than conjecture from bored sports reporters.

He says James has given no indication that he plans to leave for New York after his contract expires in 2010.

Okay, Mr. Gilbert, we “bored sports reporters” will just sit here and pretend that there isn’t a giant ticking clock on LeBron’s stay in Cleveland. I’m sure he’ll re-sign if, in two years, the Cavs are still a middle-of-the-road playoff team in the East, and there’s every indication that they will be.

Which is a bigger insult to Cleveland – speculating about a possible LeBron departure or pretending that it won’t happen?