That’s the biggest question hovering over the NBA this season, at least from a free agency standpoint. ESPN tackled this issue by surveying a group of “52 NBA noggins” to see what the general consensus is.

The good news for Cleveland fans is that 73% responded that he’s likely to stay put, in no small part to how the economy has affected the NBA salary cap. The bottom line is that, with reduced cap space, other teams are going to have a tough time signing two superstars, so they become less desirable destinations for LeBron.

New York still lurks as the biggest threat to pry LeBron away from Cleveland, and here’s why…

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ESPN’s Chad Ford lists nine teams that will have significant cap space next summer. [Insider subscription required.]

1. Nets ($25-$27 million)
2. Knicks ($24 million, assuming they don’t sign anyone for longer than a year)
3. Heat ($20-$22 million)
4. Timberwolves ($16-$18 million)
5. Bulls ($13-$15 million minus whatever they give Tyrus Thomas)
6. Thunder ($14-$15 million)
7. Rockets ($12-$14 million minus whatever they give to Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes)
8. Clippers ($10-$11 million)
9. Kings ($9-$10 million)

This assumes a cap of $53.6 million, which is an optimistic view. The cap could drop below $50 million.

It takes about $14 million of space to sign a max-contract player, so even under these optimistic circumstances, there really are only five teams — the Nets, Knicks, Heat, T-Wolves and Thunder — that will have that kind of space. (The Bulls are likely to keep Thomas and the Rockets are likely to retain Landry and Hayes, though they could make another move here or there to put them in position to add a superstar.)

Of these five teams, the Heat look to be in the best overall shape. Their projected payroll already includes Dwyane Wade, so they have enough to woo another superstar (LeBron, Bosh, Amare, Boozer?) to Miami. They also have a few good young players (Michael Beasley, Daequan Cook and Mario Chalmers) under contract, and the city boasts a great climate and nightlife. But the real draw is playing with Wade, who has already proven that he can win a championship if he has a little help.

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It was kind of a pipe dream anyway, but LeBron isn’t going to sign the extension that the Cavs have offered, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

“I signed a contract in 2006 with an option,” he said. “It would make no sense for me to sign that contract if I didn’t keep my options open. I’ll let you fill in the blanks.”

James is playing this one the right way. If he re-ups now, then he loses the leverage necessary to keep GM Danny Ferry’s feet to the fire in terms of bringing in some long-term help. Shaquille O’Neal is fine for a year or two, but he’s most definitely a short-term fix.

The bad news is that with the long-term commitment the team made to Anderson Varejao, the Cavs aren’t projected to have any cap space next summer if they’re lucky enough to re-sign LeBron. It looks like Ferry sees the writing on the wall — with the salary cap likely dropping to $50-$51 million next season, he wasn’t going to have enough money to sign LeBron and another superstar, so he re-signed Varejao to make this year’s Cavs team as good as possible in the hopes that a Finals appearance or a championship would be enough to keep LeBron in Cleveland.