According to Brian Windhorst of The Plain Dealer, LeBron’s camp seems to think that he’s going to re-sign with the Cavs this summer.

After being mostly neutral and downright noncommittal for some time, those closest to James have been altering their view recently. The vibe being sent out from James’ camp — whether it is private conversations or discussions about new business or plans for the near future — is that James currently is leaning strongly toward re-signing with the Cavs.

That may sound vague and, as always, it continues to be fragile. Yet there is no denying the gradual shift within James’ circle and, it is assumed, by James himself.

James has declined to talk publicly about free agency since November. But as one source said, “I have never been so sure that he’s going to stay in Cleveland than I am right now.”

Windhorst is a good beat writer and I believe him when he says he’s getting a different vibe from LeBron’s camp.

LeBron is supposedly a loyal guy, and is from nearby Akron, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he decided to re-sign with the Cavs even if the team flames out again in the postseason. He seems to genuinely enjoy the players on the team and the franchise has treated him well, and that goes a long way.

But if the Cavs lose in the playoffs, would they bother to bring Shaq back for another season? If not, even with his salary off the books, the Cavs would be approximately $17 million over the salary cap. The only way to infuse the team with more (or different) talent would be to swing a trade or use the mid-level exception.

In other words, if this Cavs team doesn’t break through and win a title, I’m not optimistic about the 2011 Cavs or the 2012 Cavs having more luck.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

No one really knows what LeBron will do this summer, not even LeBron. But Mitch Lawrence of the NY Daily News says you can cross three teams off the list.

First, the Clippers…

James isn’t playing second fiddle to Kobe Bryant and the Lakers, even if Clippers GM Mike Dunleavy traded off Marcus Camby, Al Thornton, Sebastian Telfair and got rid of Ricky Davis to create a maximum salary slot for the express purpose of landing James.

Kobe is turning 32 this season and isn’t going to play forever. He has already played 1,158 games and his knees are eventually going to give out, so LeBron wouldn’t be playing “second fiddle” for long, if at all. LeBron might see the taking of L.A. and the resurrecting of a long-maligned franchise as a worthy challenge. Will LeBron sign with the Clippers? Probably not, but not because of Kobe. The Clippers’ best player, Baron Davis, is already 30 and injury-prone, and owner Donald Sterling doesn’t have a very good reputation.

Next up, the Nets…

James might be tight with Net minority owner Jay-Z, but he’s not coming to play in Newark for two years, which could turn into three or four seasons, depending on what happens to the Nets’ Atlantic Yards project.

It’s not like Cleveland is the greatest place to live, either. Though I’m sure the status of the Atlantic Yards project would weigh heavily on LeBron’s decision to play for the Nets. The Nets have a few young pieces — Brook Lopez and Devin Harris — and LeBron might like the challenge of turning around a 10-win franchise.

Lastly, the Heat…

James isn’t moving down to South Beach to team with Dwyane Wade. They both need to dominate the ball and the Heat wants to import a big man to pair with Wade.

Really, Miami would pass up LeBron for a big man? Come on. The ball dominating thing I understand, but LeBron and Wade have shown the ability to play together and LeBron is fine with deferring some of the time. I think they’d actually fit really well together, kind of like Michael Jordan (Wade) and Scottie Pippen (LeBron).

Here’s a shocker — a New York writer thinks that LeBron might end up with the Knicks:

So, heading into July, the Knicks are going to be the only team that can bring James together with Bosh. Is that a big deal for James? All we know is, when he was asked at last year’s All-Star weekend in Phoenix, what one member of the Olympic team he wanted to play with in the future, he picked the Raptors’ big man.

“Being around him last summer (in the Olympics), I got to see how smart he is,” James said. “His basketball I.Q. is unbelievable. He’s a very, very good player. Sometimes you look at him and you say, “He’s not that strong or he’s not the fastest guy out there.’ But the way he approaches the game … his mindset really helps him dominate a basketball game.”

Maybe James was just blowing smoke. But maybe he’s already figured out where he’s going and who’s coming with him.

Oooh. Provocative stuff.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Originally published December 11, 2008.
Updated November 12, 2009.

The phrase “Summer of 2010″ has become part of the NBA lexicon. Teams have been tripping over each other trying to clear cap space for next summer so that they can sign an impact free agent (or two). With that in mind, let’s take a look ahead at the free agent crop of 2010.

Below is a list of the top 10 players that are likely to be free agents next summer. I’m ranking them based mostly on talent, but it’s also important to note each player’s age in July of 2010, as that will affect his value and skill. For example, a 31 year-old Paul Pierce holds much more value than a 33 year-old Paul Pierce. Get the drift?

1. LeBron James, SF (26 years-old)
James is the golden boy of this free agent class and is the player that every franchise would love to land next summer. He will have just turned 26 and whatever team is lucky enough to sign him will – barring injury – enjoy four or five years of the best basketball of his career. The Cavs have gone “all in” this season, signing Shaq, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, and re-signing Anderson Varejao. In the process, they gave up whatever cap space they would have enjoyed next summer. If Cleveland’s season ends in disappointment once again, it wouldn’t be surprising if LeBron decides to take his game elsewhere. Three teams — the Knicks, Bulls and Nets — jump out as good fits. LeBron has stated that his top priority is to become a “global icon” and playing in Manhattan would serve that purpose. If the Knicks are able to unload Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries before the trade deadline, then they’ll have the projected cap space to sign two top players on this list, and that might be enough to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line. Plus, he’s familiar with Mike D’Antoni (via the duo’s work with Team USA) and the Knicks’ up-tempo system would be a near-perfect fit for LeBron’s skill set. The Nets offer a better supporting cast (led by Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the (impending?) move to Brooklyn would boost the franchise’s profile. Chicago has a number of pieces already in place (Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich) and is bigger market than Cleveland. But would LeBron want to go to the franchise that Michael Jordan built?
Note: Player option (PO)

2. Dwyane Wade, SG (28)
Wade is two years older than James, but is just as effective when healthy. In fact, staying healthy is his biggest problem. In six-plus seasons, he has missed almost 20% of his team’s games. He isn’t a great three-point shooter, but he’s a terrific all-around scorer and gets to the line as well as anyone in the NBA. Like LeBron, he’ll be seeking a max contract, but since he’s older and somewhat injury-prone, he won’t be as good of a value as his counterpart. I wouldn’t rule out a LeBron-Wade combo in New York, but it’s more likely that the Knicks will want to pair LeBron with a big man, like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. There’s a good chance that Wade will stay put in Miami since it’s a very desirable place to play and the Heat have enough cap space to sign someone like Bosh or Stoudemire in addition to re-signing their superstar. After all, there are worse things in life than being a multi-millionaire living in South Beach.
Note: PO

3. Chris Bosh, FC (26)
Simply stated – Chris Bosh is one of the best young big men in the NBA. He has averaged at least 22.3 points and 8.7 rebounds over the last four seasons. This year, the versatile power forward has stepped up his game and is averaging 28.9 points and 11.5 rebounds. Everyone in New York is talking about a possible LeBron-Bosh combo, and this would be an ideal situation, but with a projected drop in the salary cap, the Knicks will need to move a player or two by the trade deadline to make it work. Bosh is no sure thing to leave Toronto – the franchise proved it was willing to spend when it signed Hedo Turkoglu to give Bosh some help. With the emergence of Andrea Bargnani and the steady play of Jose Calderon, the Raptors have something going.
Note: PO

4. Amare Stoudemire, FC (28)
Stoudemire is a little bigger and stronger than Bosh, but their numbers are almost identical. Stoudemire is two years older, far more injury-prone, and isn’t as good of a defender, but he boasts a much higher FG%. He’s at his best when he catches a pass from Steve Nash off of the duo’s patented pick-and-roll and attacks the rim. If the Knicks are able to woo LeBron but are unable for some reason to get Bosh, Stoudemire would be the next best choice. He’s obviously a great fit in Mike D’Antoni’s system – he averaged 26 points and 9 rebounds in the 2004-05 season – so it’s a logical pairing.
Note: Early Termination Option (ETO)

5. Joe Johnson, SG (29)
The Hawks raised some eyebrows when they traded future Most Improved Player Boris Diaw and two first round draft picks to the Suns for Joe Johnson. Once Diaw won the MIP, it looked like the Suns got the better end of the deal. But with Johnson turning into a 23-point, five-assist, four-rebound kind of player, it sure looks like the Hawks were the ones to benefit most from the trade. It’s likely that Atlanta will do everything possible to retain him, as he’s the biggest reason the team made its return to the playoffs last season. Given his age, scoring ability, versatility and three-point accuracy (39%), he will be highly valued in the summer of 2010.

6. Dirk Nowitzki, PF (32)
Nowitzki’s reputation has taken a bit of a dip over the last couple of seasons, but he’s still averaging 26-and-9 this year. The Mavs are committed to him, so it’s going to be tough for Dirk to turn down the $21.5 million if the two sides are unable to reach an agreement on an extension by next summer. I don’t see Dirk leaving Dallas anytime soon.
Note: ETO

7. Carlos Boozer, PF (27)
Boozer elected to play out the final year of his contract because he found out last summer that his market value didn’t meet his expectations. Instead, he’s focused on having a good season in Utah and proving to everyone that he can stay healthy. Boozer is a great fit as a sidekick, so it wouldn’t be at all surprising if he landed in Miami, New York or New Jersey/Brooklyn. In fact, the Nets are a trade away from having enough cap space to sign both LeBron/Wade and Boozer, assuming he doesn’t expect a max deal. It’s highly unlikely that he stays in Utah since the Jazz just made a big commitment to Paul Millsap, who has a very similar skill set.

8. Paul Pierce, SG (33)
If Pierce were younger in the summer of 2010, he‘d be higher on this list. Realistically, he’s unlikely to be available because the last year of his deal is worth $21.5 million, and he’s not going to find that kind of money elsewhere. He’ll probably stick in Boston since Kevin Garnett is signed through 2011-12.
Note: PO

9. Manu Ginobili, SG (32)
Ginobili has a reputation for being injury-prone; he has missed almost 17% of his team’s regular season games in seven-plus years. He’s a good three-point shooter (career 38%), and a crafty scorer (14.8 ppg) and passer (3.6 apg). The Spurs have done a great job over the years of re-signing their stars, but if Ginobili becomes available in the summer of 2010, more than a few teams will be interested in signing him to a three- or four-year contract. He always seems to come up big in crunch time.

10. David Lee, PF (27)
Lee was a restricted free agent this past summer and ended up signing a one-year deal to stay with the Knicks. His camp was looking for a deal averaging $8-$10 million per season, but quickly found that the market wasn’t willing to bear that. He led the league in double-doubles in the 2008-09 season, but given the frenetic pace at which the Knicks play, his numbers are a little inflated. Still, he’ll be a great complementary forward wherever he lands.

Honorable Mention:

Yao Ming, C (29)
Yao is a 22/10 guy, but his biggest problem is staying healthy. After playing in all but two games of his first three seasons, Yao has missed more than a third of his team’s games. Yao’s big frame isn’t built for the long haul. This makes him a dicey investment for a team trying to win a championship. Yao would have to terminate a contract that would pay him $17.7 million for the 2010-11 season. It’s doubtful that he’ll find that kind of money on the open market coming off a season-long injury.

Tracy McGrady, SG (31)
T-Mac is one of the league’s most talented and versatile players, but he has two serious issues: staying healthy and an apparent inability to win in the postseason. In the three seasons spanning from 2005-2008, he has missed a quarter of the Rockets’ games. Given his age and health concerns, If he continues to struggle with his knees and back, he could be passed (value-wise) by Richard Jefferson, Michael Redd or Josh Howard.

Shaquille O’Neal, C (38)
Will anyone want to take on a 38-year-old O’Neal? What kind of contract is he willing to play for? If he can help the Cavs win a title, it will boost his stock considerably.

Richard Jefferson, SF (30)
Jefferson would have to opt-out of the final year of his deal ($15.0 million) to become a free agent. It’s doubtful that he’s going to find that kind of money on the open market.

Michael Redd, SG (30)
Redd has a ETO, and is unikely to exercise it due to the value of the final year of his contract ($18.3 million).

Josh Howard, SF (30)
The Mavs have a team option for the 2010-11 season, and given Howard’s off-the-court antics, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be a Maverick for long. If he’s a good citizen, however, he’s sure to stay in Dallas.

Other notables: T.J. Ford, PG (27); Tyson Chandler, C (28); Ray Allen, SG (34); Marcus Camby, C (36); Raymond Felton, PG (26); John Salmons, GF (30); Allen Iverson, G (35); Nate Robinson, G (26); Al Harrington, F (30) and Travis Outlaw, SF (25)

Significant restricted free agents: Rudy Gay, Tyrus Thomas, Ronnie Brewer, Randy Foye, Kyle Lowry and Josh Childress.

Photos from fOTOGLIF

John Hollinger writes in his latest PER Diem (Insider subscription required) that LeBron’s best bet for long term success may not be in Cleveland…or New York…or New Jersey/Brooklyn…

And it’s especially worth noting that if the Cavs are back in the 45-50 win range this season, King James might be a much more portable commodity this coming summer. If he’s looking at a Cleveland lineup with one majestically talented player and several spare parts, one would think the comparison to such arrangements in New York or New Jersey wouldn’t be dramatically different.

But those aren’t close to being the most palatable changes of uniform available. For instance, it bears mentioning that joining the Chicago squad LeBron’s team lost to Thursday night would be dramatically different. With a young star point guard, quality big men and lots of secondary help, the Bulls — who could get as much as $20 million under the cap if John Salmons opts out of his contract, conveniently opening a spot in the lineup for LeBron at the same time — would offer a more clear opportunity for long-term success.

Let me throw out an even crazier proposition — Minnesota. The Wolves will have the cap space to make a run at LeBron, depending on a few variables — or at the very least can get there fairly easily if they know there’s a chance for a player of this caliber. (Declining an option on Ryan Gomes, for instance, is done much more easily if it allows you to replace him with the best player in the league.)

Minnesota is generally thought of as one of the NBA’s least-desirable relocation options, but let’s consider it from a winning perspective. Who would you rather play with for the next five years: Al Jefferson or Anderson Varejao? Kevin Love or Ilgauskas? Ricky Rubio or Mo Williams? Jonny Flynn or West? Ramon Sessions or Daniel Gibson? Next year’s fourth pick or next year’s 24th? It’s obvious, isn’t it?

Don’t get me wrong — the T-Wolves would be a good fit for LeBron, but he’d be a pretty good fit anywhere. I just don’t see him taking his show from one cold, small-market Midwestern city to another cold, small-market Midwestern city. If he doesn’t stay in Cleveland, then there seem to be three real options:

1. Brooklyn Nets
With Devin Harris and Brook Lopez locked up for the next few years, the Nets have two All-Star caliber players already on the roster at two of the toughest positions to fill — point guard and center. Is the penetrating Harris the perfect fit alongside LeBron? Not necessarily, but if the Nets can find a sharpshooting off guard (Courtney Lee?) and face up power forward (a la Rashard Lewis), the Nets would really be in business. Plus, the move to Brooklyn would take away the stigma of playing in New Jersey.

2. Chicago Bulls
It would break the city of Cleveland’s heart if LeBron fled to the Windy City. New York or Brooklyn? Cleveland fans wouldn’t like it, but they’d understand. But if LeBron heads to Chicago, home of the team that stepped on the Cavs’ throats so many times during the Jordan era, the city might explode. From a pure basketball point of view, it’s a nice fit. They already have Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, Kirk Hinrich and maybe Tyrus Thomas. Chicago is also a threat to pry Dwyane Wade out of Miami.

3. New York Knicks
This is more about MSG and the spotlight than who the Knicks have on the roster. Playing in Mike D’Antoni’s system would be nice, and if the Knicks can unload either Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries, they’d have enough cap space to sign another free agent to max deal. This might be a case of the Knicks having to coax Chris Bosh out of Toronto or Amare Stoudemire out of Phoenix before being able to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line.

We’re only a couple of weeks into the season and the talk is already starting. The Cavs have plenty of time to morph into a 60-win team, but right now they don’t look it. And the longer they struggle, the louder the drum beat is going to sound.

That’s the biggest question hovering over the NBA this season, at least from a free agency standpoint. ESPN tackled this issue by surveying a group of “52 NBA noggins” to see what the general consensus is.

The good news for Cleveland fans is that 73% responded that he’s likely to stay put, in no small part to how the economy has affected the NBA salary cap. The bottom line is that, with reduced cap space, other teams are going to have a tough time signing two superstars, so they become less desirable destinations for LeBron.

New York still lurks as the biggest threat to pry LeBron away from Cleveland, and here’s why…

…he’ll try to work out a sign-and-trade, perhaps involving David Lee, to bring in a second star such as Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire as a teammate for LeBron. And no matter what, he’ll tell LeBron all about the potential cap room the Knicks will have in 2011, at which time Walsh will be able to round out what could become a championship roster.

The other cards in Walsh’s deck are pretty obvious as he makes his pitch to LeBron: Come to so-called Basketball Mecca and we’ll build championship teams around you in the World’s Greatest Arena, paving the way to greater glory, riches and Global Icon status. And oh, by the way, you’ll be playing for Mike D’Antoni, the guy who won about 60 games a year in Phoenix, who helped mastermind the success of your Olympic gold medal-winning team and who will set you free in the open court to run up and down in the up-tempo offense you’ve always dreamed of.

The problem for the Cavs is that they aren’t going to have any significant cap space until 2011, so if the Shaq experiment doesn’t result in a championship, 2010 could actually be a step back for the organization. Shaq and his salary would be gone, but the Cavs would be unable to sign any big name free agents other than James, who has already said he’s going to opt out of the final year of his deal.

If Shaq is a disaster from the get go, the Cavs could move him for some long term help, but one of James’s long-rumored big-man running mates — Amare Stoudemire — plays for the Suns, and they’re unlikely to take Shaq back. The other — Chris Bosh — plays for a team that thinks they can re-sign him. Why trade him for Shaq?

The Cavs can offer LeBron more money than any other team and that, plus his familiarity with the team and the city, might keep him in Ohio. But I’ve said this all along — if the Cavs don’t win a title (or at least make another Finals) — I think LeBron bolts. That would make three near misses for LeBron and I doubt he sticks around for a fourth.

Remember, his loyalty is to Akron, not Cleveland.

(And keep your eye on the Nets. With Devin Harris, Courtney Lee and Brook Lopez on the roster, and an eventual move to Brooklyn, they’re the darkhorse in this race.)

This is not how it was supposed to go.

The Cavs were destined to make the Finals and face the Lakers, with LeBron turning in a fantastic Game 7 performance in front of his loyal fans at the Q to bring the city of Cleveland its first championship since 1964. With a title already under his belt, and a few more on the horizon, he would happily re-up for another four or five seasons. Or at the very worst, the Cavs would lose to the more talented Lakers, leaving fans with the feeling that “one more piece” would be all that is needed to finally bring a title to Cleveland. Under that scenario, there would be no way that LeBron could leave, right? Not when the Cavs were thisclose to a title…

Just over a year ago, I wrote that “The Cavs have failed LeBron James,” which was posted about three months before GM Danny Ferry pulled the trigger on the trade that brought Mo Williams to Cleveland. That trade, along with LeBron’s renewed focus and an improved work ethic (which was inspired by his seeing first hand how Kobe prepared during the 2008 Olympics), pushed the Cavs to a league-best 66 wins this season. Williams was named as an alternate to the All-Star Game (after grousing about not being voted in by the coaches) and all was well with the world.

The Cavs received some more good news when Kevin Garnett struggled with injuries down the stretch of the regular season and was eventually shut down for the playoffs. At the time, the Celtics were considered the Cavs’ biggest threat in the East, but KG’s injury might have allowed the Magic, one of four teams that beat the Cavs twice during the year — the Celtics, the Lakers and…um…the Wizards were the other three — to advance to the Conference Finals when they otherwise wouldn’t have survived to face the Cavs. The Magic were a very bad matchup because the Cavs simply didn’t have anyone that could cover Dwight Howard. When they didn’t double-team him, he would make a living on the post, and when they did send another guy, it would free up the Orlando sharpshooters for open jumpers.

Since the Cavs won 66 games, those same flaws that went overlooked for much of the season and postseason once again reared their ugly heads against the Magic: 1) the lack of an inside scorer, 2) no defensive stopper in the middle, 3) very little ingenuity on offense and 4) a weak bench. Williams, who shot 47% from the field and 44% from long range during the regular season, suddenly couldn’t eclipse the 38% mark in either category. Delonte West was the only Cleveland player to step up his game in the Orlando series, but he’s better suited to be the third or fourth option on offense, not LeBron’s main sidekick.

Let’s not forget that the Cavs had an opportunity to address one or more of these flaws at the trade deadline in February and failed to strike a deal. Armed with Wally Szczerbiak’s expiring contract (worth $13.8 million) as trade bait, and pursued Shaq, Amare Stoudemire, Richard Jefferson and Antawn Jamison. We’ll never know just how close Cleveland was to making a deal, though David Aldridge said that the Cavs “really did try” to acquire a big man. There are reports that the Suns would have been willing to part with Shaq had the Cavs agreed to give up Szczerbiak (along with Sasha Pavlovic), but Danny Ferry insisted that the Suns take Ben Wallace instead. The Suns balked, and for good reason.

Regardless, any of these players probably would have been enough to put the Cavs in the Finals, assuming the transition went relatively smoothly. Shaq would have provided both a low post presence and a big body to limit Howard in the post. Stoudemire would have given LeBron a legitimate All-NBA sidekick to relieve some of the scoring burden. (Just imagine LeBron and Amare running the high pick and roll. Geesh.) Jefferson and Jamison would have given the Cavs another established forward to deal with Hedo Turkoglu and/or Rashard Lewis defensively while giving LeBron another option on the offensive end.

LeBron’s silence after Game 6 speaks volumes. He was obviously frustrated with losing the series, was probably upset about his own play and may have already been contemplating his future with the franchise. This summer, he is going to hear all about how great he played and how his supporting cast let him down. This kind of talk will wear on him and might impact his decision next summer, when he can opt out of the final year of his contract and become an unrestricted free agent.

Most star and superstar free agents re-sign. For every player who changes teams, there are six or seven that stay put. But LeBron is a special case. He knows that he’ll be able to contend just about anywhere he goes, and any team would be more than happy to have him.

So how do the Cavs keep him?

For LeBron to re-sign next summer, he needs to see a bright future in Cleveland. So the Cavs either need to win a title next year (or come damn close) or get the pieces in place to ensure that the Cavs are amongst the elite teams in the East for years to come.

First, the Cavs have to deal with a few losses. Wally Szczerbiak will almost certainly not be back, Anderson Varejao can (and likely will) become a free agent, Joe Smith will be a free agent, and Ben Wallace is thinking about retiring. The Cavs are over the cap, so they can improve their roster in three ways: 1) sign a player to the mid-level exception, 2) make a trade, and 3) strike gold in the draft. Since the Cavs pick last in the first round, finding an immediate contributor in the draft is a long shot, so let’s focus on the first two options.

Assuming James opts out (and he most certainly will, either to re-sign with the Cavs or sign elsewhere), Cleveland will only be on the hook for about $21 million heading into the summer of 2010, and that’s enough cap space to not only re-sign LeBron but to also sign another superstar like Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade or Joe Johnson. But if the Cavs head into that summer without James locked up, anything can happen. They could sign another superstar only to lose James, or vice versa. Or the worst could happen — they fail to sign anyone.

The good news it that given the current state of the economy, there should be a number of bargains available at the mid-level (~$5.8 million per season). It’s not out of the realm of possibility that players like Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, Andre Miller, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, Mehmet Okur, Charlie Villanueva, Ray Felton or Mike Bibby could ultimately sign a mid-level deal (not that any of these players are a particularly good fit in Cleveland). The prospect of playing with LeBron will be especially attractive to vets who are more interested in a ring than they are in signing a monster deal.

If the Cavs sign one of these players to a two-year (or longer) mid-level deal, that will still leave about $31 million of projected cap space in the summer of 2010, which would be enough to re-sign LeBron and sign a superstar sidekick. The problem is that if the Cavs don’t re-sign Varejao and don’t replace him, they’re going to have trouble getting to the Finals next year, which will put LeBron’s future very much up in the air. If Varejao departs and Wallace retires, then the Cavs will be left with Zydrunas Ilgauskas and J.J. Hickson up front, and while Hickson is a nice prospect, that’s simply not enough beef to compete for the Eastern Conference crown. The Cavs’ best bet may be to sign Varejao to a one-year deal to keep him in town for another season. Otherwise, they’ll be really hurting on the front line. He’s looking for $10 million a season, but I don’t think he’s going to find that kind of money in this environment. Varejao could play out the last year of his contract for $6.2 million and try his luck next summer.

Ironically, the only post player in this year’s free agent class that fits the Cavs’ needs is Carlos Boozer. If the Cavs would be willing to let bygones be bygones, the only way to acquire him is via a sign-and-trade, and they’d have to give up a young prospect and/or a first round pick (or two) to convince the Jazz to take on the salary for a year. Wallace or Varejao would have to be included to make the numbers work.

Another option is to try to acquire Bosh or Stoudemire now instead of waiting for next summer. A move like this would almost certainly keep LeBron in town, and it would be worth Varejao, Hickson, two first round draft picks and whatever else the Raptors or Suns would want (including Williams, who is now somewhat expendable). Stoudemire is probably more available to the Cavs than Bosh, since the Raptors would be hesitant to trade him to an Eastern Conference team.

One thing is certain — with the loss to the Magic, the Cavs’ future is far less stable than it appeared even two weeks ago. Cleveland fans that still don’t believe that LeBron could sign elsewhere next summer because the team had a great regular season are just fooling themselves. The good news is that if owner Dan Gilbert is willing to spend, there is plenty of opportunity for Danny Ferry to improve this roster over the next three months.

LeBron’s future depends on it.

With the trade deadline in the rear view mirror and players tied to their current teams at least until the summer, it’s a good time to take a look ahead at the free agent class of 2009. Given the state of the economy and how so many teams are saving up for the class of 2010, some are suggesting that this summer’s free agency could be a “nuclear winter” of sorts, no pun intended. The salary cap and luxury tax thresholds are likely to decline for the first time in years and that has GMs and owners around the league scrambling to cut salary where they can.

There are three types of free agents: players with early termination options (ETO) or player options (PO), restricted free agents and unrestricted free agents.

Players with ETOs or POs

This group includes Kobe Bryant, Jermaine O’Neal, Al Harrington, Jamal Crawford and Mehmet Okur, but it’s highly unlikely that any of these guys will hit the open market given the kind of money they’ll be making by extending their respective contracts. Of this group, Hedo Turkoglu, Anderson Varejao and maybe Carlos Boozer are the only big names that are likely to hit free agency. Boozer has already stated that he’s going to opt out, but he may decide against it if he doesn’t come back strong from his injuries. Turkoglu — the reigning Most Improved Player — is having another nice season, but he’s not playing quite as well as last year. Still, he can command more than the $7.3 million he’s due to make next season. Varejao could stay with the Cavs and make $6.2 million next season, but he and his agent (Dan Fegan) have been looking for more. Varejao wants a long term deal but it seems he and the Cavs disagree on how much he’s actually worth.

For the most part, guys in this group are going to be conservative and play out their contracts.

Restricted Free Agents

RFAs hardly ever change uniforms, but in this economic climate there are teams that are unlikely to match substantial offers for their restricted free agents. The other issue is that once a team signs a RFA to an offer sheet, the player’s team has a full week to match the offer. Most teams know instantly whether or not they’re going to match, but they take the full week so that the other team can’t make any other offers because its money is tied up in the offer sheet. The NBA should reduce this period to three or four days so that teams are more willing to make offers to RFAs. Or better yet, it should eliminate restricted free agency completely to avoid Josh Childress-type cases in the future.

(Stepping down from my soapbox…)

Anyway, the list of restricted free agents includes Childress, David Lee, Paul Millsap, Nate Robinson, Charlie Villanueva, Ramon Sessions (ESPN says he’s restricted though HoopsHype and ShamSports show Sessions as an UFA), Marvin Williams, Raymond Felton, Leon Powe and Linas Kleiza.

The Knicks can’t afford to keep both Lee and Robinson and sign LeBron or some other max-type free agent next summer, so if someone comes along and offers either player a substantial contract, it is unlikely that the Knicks will be able to match. Millsap played great in Boozer’s absence, and they are very similar players so it is unlikely that Utah can afford to keep both. Millsap looks like a potential All-Star and would be a cheaper option, but only time will tell if the Jazz have the balls to let Boozer walk.

Childress will probably return to the U.S. after a year playing in Greece. I suspect he’ll be a mid-level type guy, which increases the number of potential suitors as teams that are over the cap can still sign a player at the mid-level. The Bucks are in financial trouble and they need to get rid of Michael Redd or Richard Jefferson if they hope to keep both Sessions and Villanueva. Both players are having career years under Scott Skiles, but it’s unclear if the Bucks will be able to keep them. I’d expect Sessions to be a mid-level guy (and should be a solid starter for that price), while Charlie V might command a bit more. There are still questions about his heart, but if he’s thriving under Skiles, could he really be lacking toughness and drive? The Bucks have been hit by injuries to Redd and Andrew Bogut but are still holding onto the #8 playoff spot in the East, so they’d be wise to keep this core together if they can.

The Bobcats’ decision to draft D.J. Augustin made Raymond Felton expendable, so he could probably be had for the right price. I’m guessing that he’s a mid-level guy as well, though he and his agent will probably want more. Leon Powe and Linas Kleiza are both productive bench players and if the offer sheet is big enough, the Celtics and Nuggets (respectively) may decide not to match.

Unrestricted Free Agents

This group includes Ben Gordon, Lamar Odom, Shawn Marion, Allen Iverson, Ron Artest, Mike Bibby, Andre Miller, Jason Kidd, Rasheed Wallace, Trevor Ariza and Brandon Bass. Most of these players are older and on the decline, but they can still play. Veteran players in this group might be shocked by the kind of pay cut that they’re going to have to take in today’s climate. The days of 30+ year-old stars (not superstars) signing max or near-max deals are over, at least for a while. I bet all of these guys sign for less than $10 million per season. (I know…that’s peanuts, right?)

Gordon, Ariza and Bass are younger and could still be on the rise if they find the right team. Gordon seems to think he’s a starter and should be paid as such, but he’s small and doesn’t have a reputation for being a very good defender. He can really score though. If some team wants to pay him starter’s money, he’d be a good match to play alongside a bigger point guard who could cover the opponent’s off guard (Utah, Denver, Detroit?) or he needs to go to a team that doesn’t emphasize the defensive end.

Ariza continues to play well for the Lakers, but since he’s a much cheaper option than Odom, he’s probably going to be staying put. Bass had a terrific season two years ago, and is really coming on after a slow start this season. He’s just 23 and has some upside. I’d expect some team will sign him to a deal averaging in the $3-$4 million range, which would make him one of the best bargains of the summer.

So where will these players end up? Your guess is as good as mine. There are only a handful of teams — Atlanta, Detroit, Memphis (of course), Minnesota, Oklahoma City, Portland, Sacramento and Toronto — with the cap space (~$7 million or more) to sign a good player for another team, so I think there may be quite a few starter-level players/borderline stars signing mid-level deals this season. Playoff contenders that are over the cap won’t be able to pass up a good player for $5 million per season and there should be a number of guys that fit the bill this summer.