Originally published December 11, 2008.
Updated November 12, 2009.

The phrase “Summer of 2010″ has become part of the NBA lexicon. Teams have been tripping over each other trying to clear cap space for next summer so that they can sign an impact free agent (or two). With that in mind, let’s take a look ahead at the free agent crop of 2010.

Below is a list of the top 10 players that are likely to be free agents next summer. I’m ranking them based mostly on talent, but it’s also important to note each player’s age in July of 2010, as that will affect his value and skill. For example, a 31 year-old Paul Pierce holds much more value than a 33 year-old Paul Pierce. Get the drift?

1. LeBron James, SF (26 years-old)
James is the golden boy of this free agent class and is the player that every franchise would love to land next summer. He will have just turned 26 and whatever team is lucky enough to sign him will – barring injury – enjoy four or five years of the best basketball of his career. The Cavs have gone “all in” this season, signing Shaq, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, and re-signing Anderson Varejao. In the process, they gave up whatever cap space they would have enjoyed next summer. If Cleveland’s season ends in disappointment once again, it wouldn’t be surprising if LeBron decides to take his game elsewhere. Three teams — the Knicks, Bulls and Nets — jump out as good fits. LeBron has stated that his top priority is to become a “global iconâ€� and playing in Manhattan would serve that purpose. If the Knicks are able to unload Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries before the trade deadline, then they’ll have the projected cap space to sign two top players on this list, and that might be enough to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line. Plus, he’s familiar with Mike D’Antoni (via the duo’s work with Team USA) and the Knicks’ up-tempo system would be a near-perfect fit for LeBron’s skill set. The Nets offer a better supporting cast (led by Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the (impending?) move to Brooklyn would boost the franchise’s profile. Chicago has a number of pieces already in place (Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich) and is bigger market than Cleveland. But would LeBron want to go to the franchise that Michael Jordan built?
Note: Player option (PO)

Read the rest of this entry »

John Hollinger writes in his latest PER Diem (Insider subscription required) that LeBron’s best bet for long term success may not be in Cleveland…or New York…or New Jersey/Brooklyn…

And it’s especially worth noting that if the Cavs are back in the 45-50 win range this season, King James might be a much more portable commodity this coming summer. If he’s looking at a Cleveland lineup with one majestically talented player and several spare parts, one would think the comparison to such arrangements in New York or New Jersey wouldn’t be dramatically different.

But those aren’t close to being the most palatable changes of uniform available. For instance, it bears mentioning that joining the Chicago squad LeBron’s team lost to Thursday night would be dramatically different. With a young star point guard, quality big men and lots of secondary help, the Bulls — who could get as much as $20 million under the cap if John Salmons opts out of his contract, conveniently opening a spot in the lineup for LeBron at the same time — would offer a more clear opportunity for long-term success.

Let me throw out an even crazier proposition — Minnesota. The Wolves will have the cap space to make a run at LeBron, depending on a few variables — or at the very least can get there fairly easily if they know there’s a chance for a player of this caliber. (Declining an option on Ryan Gomes, for instance, is done much more easily if it allows you to replace him with the best player in the league.)

Minnesota is generally thought of as one of the NBA’s least-desirable relocation options, but let’s consider it from a winning perspective. Who would you rather play with for the next five years: Al Jefferson or Anderson Varejao? Kevin Love or Ilgauskas? Ricky Rubio or Mo Williams? Jonny Flynn or West? Ramon Sessions or Daniel Gibson? Next year’s fourth pick or next year’s 24th? It’s obvious, isn’t it?

Don’t get me wrong — the T-Wolves would be a good fit for LeBron, but he’d be a pretty good fit anywhere. I just don’t see him taking his show from one cold, small-market Midwestern city to another cold, small-market Midwestern city. If he doesn’t stay in Cleveland, then there seem to be three real options:

1. Brooklyn Nets
With Devin Harris and Brook Lopez locked up for the next few years, the Nets have two All-Star caliber players already on the roster at two of the toughest positions to fill — point guard and center. Is the penetrating Harris the perfect fit alongside LeBron? Not necessarily, but if the Nets can find a sharpshooting off guard (Courtney Lee?) and face up power forward (a la Rashard Lewis), the Nets would really be in business. Plus, the move to Brooklyn would take away the stigma of playing in New Jersey.

2. Chicago Bulls
It would break the city of Cleveland’s heart if LeBron fled to the Windy City. New York or Brooklyn? Cleveland fans wouldn’t like it, but they’d understand. But if LeBron heads to Chicago, home of the team that stepped on the Cavs’ throats so many times during the Jordan era, the city might explode. From a pure basketball point of view, it’s a nice fit. They already have Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, Kirk Hinrich and maybe Tyrus Thomas. Chicago is also a threat to pry Dwyane Wade out of Miami.

3. New York Knicks
This is more about MSG and the spotlight than who the Knicks have on the roster. Playing in Mike D’Antoni’s system would be nice, and if the Knicks can unload either Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries, they’d have enough cap space to sign another free agent to max deal. This might be a case of the Knicks having to coax Chris Bosh out of Toronto or Amare Stoudemire out of Phoenix before being able to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line.

We’re only a couple of weeks into the season and the talk is already starting. The Cavs have plenty of time to morph into a 60-win team, but right now they don’t look it. And the longer they struggle, the louder the drum beat is going to sound.

That’s the biggest question hovering over the NBA this season, at least from a free agency standpoint. ESPN tackled this issue by surveying a group of “52 NBA noggins” to see what the general consensus is.

The good news for Cleveland fans is that 73% responded that he’s likely to stay put, in no small part to how the economy has affected the NBA salary cap. The bottom line is that, with reduced cap space, other teams are going to have a tough time signing two superstars, so they become less desirable destinations for LeBron.

New York still lurks as the biggest threat to pry LeBron away from Cleveland, and here’s why…

Read the rest of this entry »

This is not how it was supposed to go.

The Cavs were destined to make the Finals and face the Lakers, with LeBron turning in a fantastic Game 7 performance in front of his loyal fans at the Q to bring the city of Cleveland its first championship since 1964. With a title already under his belt, and a few more on the horizon, he would happily re-up for another four or five seasons. Or at the very worst, the Cavs would lose to the more talented Lakers, leaving fans with the feeling that “one more piece” would be all that is needed to finally bring a title to Cleveland. Under that scenario, there would be no way that LeBron could leave, right? Not when the Cavs were thisclose to a title…

Just over a year ago, I wrote that “The Cavs have failed LeBron James,” which was posted about three months before GM Danny Ferry pulled the trigger on the trade that brought Mo Williams to Cleveland. That trade, along with LeBron’s renewed focus and an improved work ethic (which was inspired by his seeing first hand how Kobe prepared during the 2008 Olympics), pushed the Cavs to a league-best 66 wins this season. Williams was named as an alternate to the All-Star Game (after grousing about not being voted in by the coaches) and all was well with the world.

The Cavs received some more good news when Kevin Garnett struggled with injuries down the stretch of the regular season and was eventually shut down for the playoffs. At the time, the Celtics were considered the Cavs’ biggest threat in the East, but KG’s injury might have allowed the Magic, one of four teams that beat the Cavs twice during the year — the Celtics, the Lakers and…um…the Wizards were the other three — to advance to the Conference Finals when they otherwise wouldn’t have survived to face the Cavs. The Magic were a very bad matchup because the Cavs simply didn’t have anyone that could cover Dwight Howard. When they didn’t double-team him, he would make a living on the post, and when they did send another guy, it would free up the Orlando sharpshooters for open jumpers.

Read the rest of this entry »

With the trade deadline in the rear view mirror and players tied to their current teams at least until the summer, it’s a good time to take a look ahead at the free agent class of 2009. Given the state of the economy and how so many teams are saving up for the class of 2010, some are suggesting that this summer’s free agency could be a “nuclear winter” of sorts, no pun intended. The salary cap and luxury tax thresholds are likely to decline for the first time in years and that has GMs and owners around the league scrambling to cut salary where they can.

There are three types of free agents: players with early termination options (ETO) or player options (PO), restricted free agents and unrestricted free agents.

Players with ETOs or POs

This group includes Kobe Bryant, Jermaine O’Neal, Al Harrington, Jamal Crawford and Mehmet Okur, but it’s highly unlikely that any of these guys will hit the open market given the kind of money they’ll be making by extending their respective contracts. Of this group, Hedo Turkoglu, Anderson Varejao and maybe Carlos Boozer are the only big names that are likely to hit free agency. Boozer has already stated that he’s going to opt out, but he may decide against it if he doesn’t come back strong from his injuries. Turkoglu — the reigning Most Improved Player — is having another nice season, but he’s not playing quite as well as last year. Still, he can command more than the $7.3 million he’s due to make next season. Varejao could stay with the Cavs and make $6.2 million next season, but he and his agent (Dan Fegan) have been looking for more. Varejao wants a long term deal but it seems he and the Cavs disagree on how much he’s actually worth.

For the most part, guys in this group are going to be conservative and play out their contracts.

On last night’s TNT coverage, Charles Barkley and David Aldridge talked a little bit about Cleveland’s attempts to swing a trade. First up is Aldridge:

“(The Cavaliers) tried (to make a trade), they really did try. They were all over the place. They tried to get Antawn Jamison from Washington, they tried to get Amar’e Stoudemire, they tried to get Richard Jefferson, they tried to get Shaq. I can tell you this, they were more interested in Shaquille O’Neal than they were in Amar’e Stoudemire. That’s a fact. They wanted Shaq badly and they really tried to get him.�

Then there’s Barkley:

“The Cavaliers made a mistake (by not making a trade)…They should have said, ‘We’re going to keep LeBron (James), we’re going to keep Mo Williams, you can have anybody else we got.’ If they would have done anything to get a big body they would have been better off.�

Rookie J.J. Hickson is just 20 years-old and has shown great potential. He’s 6′9″ (which is the optimum size for a power forward), athletic and has a few polished moves down low…

You can blame it on the Grizzlies.

Ever since they traded Pau Gasol to the Lakers for a bag of peanuts and some slightly used underwear, NBA teams have become more and more fickle about pulling the proverbial trigger. With the state of the economy, and some owners desperately trying to cut payroll before the cap and luxury tax thresholds decline, it’s a buyer’s market out there. And those buyers are looking for Gasol-type deals. On the flip side, Chris Wallace took all kinds of grief over that trade and general managers around the league don’t want to follow in his footsteps.

After two or three weeks of covering all of this trade chatter, the biggest deal to speak of is the Shawn Marion/Jermaine O’Neal swap and that happened almost a week ago. Sure, guys like Brad Miller, Andres Nocioni, John Salmons, Rafer Alston, Larry Hughes, Tim Thomas, Chris Wilcox and Drew Gooden changed zip codes, but I doubt any fans out there are sporting wood at the idea that one or more of these players is joining their team.

This year’s trade deadline was mostly about teams setting themselves up financially for the next two summers of free agency. Even though there were a number of big names bandied about, the Marion/O’Neal deal is the only semi-blockbuster trade of the season. And, barring some last-minute, late-breaking deal, we have these five teams to blame…

5. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs were in talks with the Nets about acquiring Vince Carter and also spoke with the Bucks about Richard Jefferson. Either of those players would have been a nice addition, but the Spurs just don’t have the pieces (or the balls) to pull off a trade like that. They were willing to trade for Carter, but they didn’t want to give up Roger Mason or George Hill. So they offer the Nets Bruce Bowen and Fabricio Oberto. Great, the numbers don’t even add up. Don’t get me wrong – I don’t really think that the Spurs should have given up Mason and/or Hill to acquire Carter. They’re arguably the second-best team in the West and their current lineup, if healthy, is likely to give the Lakers fits if the two teams meet in the playoffs with a less-than-100% Andrew Bynum. Plus the Spurs are notoriously conservative when it comes to messing with their chemistry. Jefferson wouldn’t have been a problem in that area but Carter might have been. So the Spurs stand pat. Shocker.

Cleveland Cavs’ star LeBrown James recently donned a Browns uniform in a State Farm commercial that will air during the NFC and AFC Championship Games on Sunday. And actually, chose to wear a Browns uniform might be more appropriate wording.

At 6-foot-8 and 250 pounds, James often describes himself as a football player. He was an All-Ohio selection at Akron’s St. Vincent-St. Mary High School and still plays flag football at the school during the offseason.

James said he had input into the commercial, which shows using some of his basketball skills to help the Browns on the football field.

“I chose what team I wanted to wear, what I wanted to do and which routes I wanted to run,” he said.

James has been criticized by Cleveland fans for supporting the Cowboys and New York Yankees. He triggered a public outcry when he wore a Yankees cap to an Indians playoff game two years ago and again to a Browns home game against Dallas last season .

So was it tough pulling on an orange Browns helmet and not one with a star on it?

“No,” James said with a wink. “I love the Browns.”

Hmm. Depending on how far Cavs fans want to take LeBron’s comments, maybe the superstar is leaning towards staying in Cleveland instead of bolting for the Big Apple like many expect? Hey, Cavs fans can hope anyways, right?

- Remember that video we shared with you a few days ago of the Florida Gator fan (right) that paid tribute to her favorite team’s national championship with a pole dance? Well, LARRY BROWN SPORTS tracked her down and did an interview with her. Fascinating stuff.

- A Knicks fan over at ROOT ZOO provides 10 reasons why LeBron James will NOT be playing for the Knicks in 2010.

- That fan’s argument that the Knicks have no supporting class for LeBron is contradicted by the post at HOT STOVE NEW YORK about why David Lee should be an All-Star.

- CHRIS COOLEY posted some pictures of the notes he took before the Redskins’ games against the Ravens and Eagles. It’s an interesting peek inside the mind of a NFL player.

- Remember Kevin Pittsnogle? You know, that 6′11″ sharpshooter from West Virginia a few years back? Well, THE BIG LEAD has an update on what he’s doing now, and it may surprise you.

- SPORTSbyBROOKS has the story of the college basketball coach’s wife who is suing a cab driver for ruining her sex life with her husband. You read that right.

In a game that was closer than the final score, the Cavaliers went on a 9-2 run in the middle of the fourth quarter to coast to an impressive 98-83 victory over the struggling Celtics. Cleveland benefited from a couple of favorable calls to start that run. First, there was a phantom offensive foul on Leon Powe, and then there was the officials’ decision not to reset the shot clock after LeBron stole the ball and lost it out of bounds (which ultimately resulted in a shot clock violation for the Celtics). Even though the Cavs outplayed the Celtics for much of the game, Boston was hanging around and it was those two defensive stops that ignited the run that ultimately put the game out of reach.

LeBron was outstanding — 38 points, seven rebounds, six assists, four steals and three blocks. Truly, it was an MVP performance for all of the doubters out there. In the past, I’ve been critical of his defense, but it looks as if his stint with Team USA has done wonders for his intensity on that end of the court. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that he’s extremely motivated when he faces Paul Pierce. Pierce struggled for much of the night and that had everything to do with LeBron’s defense.

A few random thoughts about the game…

- Where was the crowd? Given a game of this magnitude, I was expecting to tune in to see a playoff atmosphere, but the Cleveland fans sat on their hands for much of the game. They didn’t really get loud until that aforementioned run in the middle of the fourth quarter. It looked like a typical NBA crowd and that’s pretty sad given the relative importance of this game.

- I don’t like the call to wear the throwback uniforms in a game like this — it’s just too important of a game to throw crazy unis on your players. Basketball players are creatures of habit and it messes with their psyche to be wearing road throwbacks in a game of this magnitude. Ultimately, it didn’t matter, but it might have.

- Did anyone else see KG intentionally run into LeBron after the refs refused to reset the shot clock? He walked right past LeBron and hit him with a shoulder. He looked like a high school bully trying to pick a fight. LeBron reacted by turning and glancing at Garnett, but kept his cool.

- The Celtics have to do something about their bench. They lost James Posey and P.J. Brown and the guys they currently have aren’t ready to step in and play crunch time minutes like those guys did in the playoffs last season. This will be one of the more interesting storylines between now and the trade deadline and then throughout the playoffs. If the Celtics don’t repeat or at least make the Finals, then Danny Ainge is going to be second-guessed for electing not to re-sign Posey. He is likely to make a move or two to bolster the bench, but as I wrote earlier this week, they don’t have any expendable pieces to offer in trade.

- I brought this up last season, but I don’t like the way Doc Rivers uses Pierce, Garnett and Ray Allen. When you have three players of that caliber, there’s no reason to have more than one of them out of the game at any given time. Rivers elects to bench Pierce and KG at the same time and have Ray Ray out there with the reserves, but he’s not capable of carrying that unit night in and night out, especially now that they’re without Posey and Brown. I would have two of the Big Three on the court at all times. But that’s me.

- Mo Williams looks like a great fit in Cleveland. He had 13 points on 5-9 shooting, and was the Cavs’ main playmaker when LeBron went to the bench. I was sad to see the Bucks trade him away, but apparently he didn’t get along with Michael Redd — who knows, maybe Milwaukee should have jettisoned Redd instead. Williams has always struggled with his defense, but now that LeBron is doing most of the playmaking on offense, Mo can focus more on defending his guy and getting after loose balls. He had a couple of nice hustle plays tonight.

- Wally Szczerbiak is washed up. I don’t know if Mike Brown was trying to showcase him tonight for a trade, but it’s mind-boggling to me that this guy is getting minutes over Daniel Gibson and Sasha Pavlovic. He can’t really defend and if his shot isn’t falling (and it wasn’t tonight), he’s basically useless. It will be interesting to see if the Cavs decide to trade him for some more help or if they let his contract expire at the end of the season and take the salary cap relief.

- J.J. Hickson looks like a player. He’s raw, but he’s athletic and has some moves down low.