Every Sunday throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

- December 25th – mark it down. That’s the day the Bears get their rematch with the Packers and it’s going to be a spectacle to watch. There might not be a team playing with more confidence right now than Chicago, which hasn’t lost since its ugly effort in Detroit on Monday Night Football back in early October. Jay Cutler didn’t light the stat sheet on fire today but he made big plays all day. And his lone mistake (an interception to Antoine Cason), wasn’t a mistake at all because Johnny Knox slipped on the play. Besides, the Bear defense picked off Philip Rivers in the end zone on the next possession, basically nullifying Cason’s interception. With guys like Cutler, Matt Forte and Devin Hester, as well as a physical, unrelenting defense, the Bears look playoff ready…

…whoops! Talk about timing. About a millisecond after writing that paragraph I saw a report that Jay Cutler’s season might be over due to a fractured right throwing thumb. If that’s the case, then the Bears could be finished. Caleb Hanie has had his moments, such as leading Chicago to a touchdown on his first series against Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game last year. But as B.J. Raji’s interception in that same game can attest to, Hanie is also very inexperienced. If Cutler is indeed out (he’ll undergo more tests on Monday), then his injury dramatically changes the Bears’ offense (and season, for that matter).

- The Falcons would be foolish not to keep Matt Ryan in the no-huddle from here on out. Atlanta ran its no-huddle almost exclusively today in its 23-17 victory over the Titans and Ryan had is second-highest QB rating of the season (110.9), threw for over 300 yards for only the fourth time all year, and didn’t throw an interception for only the third time in 10 games. While they did have issues inside the red zone (they settled for three field goals and Michael Turner coughed the ball up once to allow Tennessee to get back into the game), the Falcons only punted twice in the victory. Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey has been hesitant to run the no-huddle on a full-time basis but it’s the offense that Ryan is clearly most comfortable running.

- Jake Locker showed why he was once considered a slam-dunk No. 1 overall draft pick. Matt Hasselbeck has done a fantastic job managing games for Tennessee this year but Locker sparked a punchless offense and nearly brought the Titans back from 20 points down in the second half. He only completed 9-of-19 passes but those nine completions went for 140 yards and two touchdowns. He also picked up a first down with an 11-yard rush on a third-and-long and showed good zip on most of his passes. Mike Munchak already backed Hasselbeck as the starter in his post-game press conference but with Matt Schaub now out for the year in Houston, it might be time for Tennessee to roll the dice with the kid. Locker was fun to watch today.

- I watched Chris Johnson very closely today and from my point of view, there’s nothing wrong with him. He just doesn’t have anywhere to run as Tennessee’s run blocking is abysmal. Atlanta’s run defense is very sound but Johnson was bottled up almost immediately after receiving the hand off.

- Blaine Gabbert threw for 210 yards and didn’t turn the ball over in the Jaguars’ 14-10 loss to the Browns. He also threw a perfectly placed ball that Jason Hill couldn’t haul in with three seconds remaining in the game that could have won it for Jacksonville. But Gabbert’s overthrow to a wide-open (and I mean WIDE-OPEN) Hill in the end zone with just under seven minutes remaining in the fourth quarter really cost Jacksonville a huge opportunity to tie the game at 14-14. Those are the types of plays that Gabbert hasn’t been making all season. Now, he’s only a rookie and deserves time to develop. But I firmly believe that Jacksonville screwed up by releasing David Garrard and forcing Gabbert onto the field before he was ready. The kid should be holding a clipboard right now.

- I’m sorry, I know a win is a win and they very well could wind up being tied for first in the NFC East before the night is over (the Giants are currently losing to the Eagles as I type). But that was not a very impressive win by the Cowboys today. The Redskins’ offense has been putrid for over a month and the Cowboys were one 52-yard field goal by Graham Gano away from losing. Jason Witten and Tony Romo made some great plays today and hey, divisional games are usually close. But count me among the people who keep waiting for the ‘Boys to put together that signature win and yet, it still hasn’t come. I picked the Cowboys to win the NFC East this year so I’m not surprised that they’re 6-4. It’s just not a very impressive 6-4 to me.

- Andy Dalton made some big mistakes today, which included throwing three interceptions and being flagged for intentional grounding on the Bengals’ final possession. But it’s clear that he and Cincinnati have a very bright future. This was a team that was without its best offensive playmaker (A.J. Green) and its top cornerback (Leon Hall) and still hung with the Ravens on their home field. On paper, Baltimore should have cruised to victory and it almost did. But thanks to Dalton and the Bengals’ perseverance, they had a chance to at least tie the game in the closing minutes. Assuming Dalton doesn’t go backwards from here, I see no reason why the Bengals won’t continue to challenge the Ravens and the Steelers in the AFC North.

- It was good to see Cam Cameron let it rip today. Sometimes the Ravens’ offense looks like a Ferrari but drives like a Pinto. Joe Flacco took a couple of deep shots, Ray Rice was heavily involved and Torrey Smith (6 receptions, 165 yards, 1 TD) had a breakout performance. Speaking of Smith, if he maintains his confidence week in and week out, he’s going to be a star in this league. That 49-yard catch that he hauled in today was a thing of beauty.

- If I’m a Lions fan I’m ecstatic that my team scored 49 points as Matthew Stafford threw for five touchdowns and Kevin Smith rushed for 140 yards and two scores. But I would be extremely concerned about the number of times they’ve had to stage a big comeback because they’ve dug themselves a huge hole in the first half. Three of the Lions’ seven wins this year (Dallas, Minnesota and Carolina) have come after they’ve fallen behind by 20 points or more and while it’s impressive that they’ve been able to persevere, it would be more impressive if they figured out a way to play four quarters more consistently. Because this is obviously a very dangerous team when they’re firing on all cylinders.

- Cam Newton is extremely fun to watch and he’s making a lot of pundits look very stupid for doubting him (and the Panthers for that matter) back in April. That said, he certainly helped his team lose today. Carolina’s defense turned in a brutal second-half effort against Detroit but Newton’s inaccuracy was a major issue as well. He often missed high to his receivers and wound up throwing four interceptions in the loss. Recklessness simply can’t be a part of his game.

- Kellen Winslow (9 receptions, 132 yards, 1 TD) had a monster game but he cost the Bucs’ twice in their 35-26 loss to the Packers. First he was flagged for an obvious pass interference call in the end zone on a third-and-3 from the Packers’ 4-yard-line, which led to a Tampa Bay field goal instead of a potential touchdown early in the third quarter. Then he dropped a pass on a two-point conversation attempt that would have tied the game at 21-21 early in the fourth. Granted, the Bucs’ defense couldn’t come up with that one big stop in the fourth but they were also trailing by nine points virtually that entire quarter because of Winslow’s mistakes. Still, Tampa certainly gave Green Bay all it could handle. There are no moral victories but the Bucs finally showed some punch on offense (including LeGarrette Blount’s unbelievable touchdown run).

- All of those weapons on offense and the Packers’ first two touchdowns today came on a 1-yard B.J. Raji run and a Tom Crabtree five-yard reception, respectively. As if opposing defenses don’t have enough to worry about when it comes to Green Bay, now they have to try and tackle 337 pounds of B.J. Raji and defend some guy named Tom Crabtree.

- Want to know the biggest reason why the previously 0-7 Dolphins have won three games in a row? Try the fact that they haven’t allowed a touchdown in 12 quarters now. Miami’s defense absolutely stifled the Bills today, allowing just 41 rushing yards in a 35-8 rout. They also stuffed Buffalo at the goal line early in the fourth quarter and intercepted Ryan Fitzpatrick twice. And who needs Andrew Luck? Matt Moore has thrown six touchdowns in his last three games.

- Somebody stick a fork in the Bills because they’re done. They made believers out of a lot of people earlier in the year but they’ve looked absolutely horrendous the last three weeks. Do you think the front office is regretting signing Ryan Fitzpatrick to that extension? He signed his new deal on October 28, beat the Redskins two days later and hasn’t won since.

- His play is indicative of a rookie quarterback but Christian Ponder is absolutely maddening to watch sometimes. One minute he’s using his athleticism to make a big throw downfield and the next he’s literally throwing the ball directly to a defender (see his interception to Stanford Routt in the fourth quarter today). He did extremely well to lead the Vikings from 20 points down against the Raiders without Adrian Peterson (who left the game early with an injury), but Ponder made some really bad decisions. Again, this is what you expect out of a rookie but he’s liable to make Leslie Frazier and Bill Musgrave insane.

- Some teams don’t have one capable starter at running back and Oakland has two. It must be nice when Darren McFadden goes down with an injury to have Michael Bush step in and take his place. Bush has lifted the Raiders into sole possession of first place in the AFC West the past two weeks. Of course, it also doesn’t hurt that the Chargers are absolutely imploding.

- Perhaps the most impressive thing about Jim Harbaugh is not the fact that he has gotten Alex Smith to play well or that the Niners’ defense is one of the best in the league. Albeit, those things are impressive but not nearly as impressive as the focus and discipline that he’s instilled in this San Francisco team. The Niners were a talented squad under Mike Singletary but the problem was that he was completely overmatched as a football tactician. And because he was so overmatched both on and off the field, his team began falling apart at the seams. But under Harbaugh, the Niners have played sound football, don’t beat themselves and not once have they been caught looking ahead. With a Thanksgiving Day matchup with his brother’s Ravens coming up in just four days, Harbaugh and the Niners could have easily overlooked Arizona today. Instead, they nearly shut the Cardinals out. Again, under Harbaugh they’ve been highly impressive.

- Considering how brutal their schedule was in the first half and the amount of injuries they’ve had to suffer through (particularly in the defensive backfield), it’s not surprising to see the Rams sitting with only two wins. That said, that’s a pitiful football team they have in St. Louis and if Billy Devaney doesn’t have a better offseason than the one he did this past year, the Rams will continue to lose. Devaney better find some gems in next year’s draft; I’m talking about finding a couple of guys that can make an impact right away or else both he and Steve Spagnuolo will be out of jobs very soon.

- I just can’t wrap my head around the play of Philip Rivers this year. This can’t be the same guy who almost single-handedly kept the Chargers in the playoff hunt last year without his top two playmakers. It just can’t. The interception he threw at the end of the game to Corey Graham was one of the worst throwaway attempts I’ve ever seen. And this came after Major Wright picked him off earlier in the quarter when San Diego’s defense put the Chargers in great field position with an interception of their own. Brutal. Philip Rivers has been brutal this year.

There have been mixed reports the past couple days on whether or not rookie Matthew Stafford will start under center for the Lions in Week 1 of the 2009 season.

ESPN’s John Clayton says no chance:

It would take an incredible preseason for rookie Matthew Stafford to beat out Daunte Culpepper in Detroit, but Stafford does have an incredible arm.

Lions beat writer Tom Kowalski says he might:

The reality is Stafford, the first overall pick in the draft, is on the fast track to become the Lions’ starting quarterback when the season opens Sept. 13 in New Orleans. So far, Stafford has passed every test with flying colors and cleared every hurdle with plenty of room to spare.

I should note that Kowalski stressed that the Lions are going to proceed with extreme caution with Stafford and that fans should exercise some patience when it comes to the former No. 1 overall pick starting this season. But it is interesting to see two members of the national media come to two different takes on this subject. And before anyone discredits Kowalski (especially when compared to Clayton’s take), keep in mind that he spends more time at Allen Park than Clayton does.

Personally, I think the Lions should park Stafford on the sidelines until GM Martin Mayhew is able to build a more talented roster. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson is a stud, running back Kevin Smith is a developing player, and rookie tight end Brandon Pettigrew could emerge as a quality playmaker as well. But Detroit’s offensive line is brutal and there’s no need for Stafford to get trampled on with Daunte Culpepper willing and waiting to serve as a beating post for opposing defenders. Plus, the defense might show a little bit of improvement this year with the additions of Larry Foote, Phillip Buchanon, Grady Jackson and Louis Delmas, but chances are the Lions are still going to be playing from behind a lot this season, which is never a good situation for a rookie quarterback trying to learn on the job.

Detroit should let Culpepper play rag doll this season and give Mayhew at least one more offseason to acquire more talent. Then maybe next year Stafford can become the full-time starter.

Get a load of this crap:

Lions season-ticket holder Todd Taylor , who commutes from Chicago to attend Lions home games, and his buddy Jim Allen from Royal Oak were stoked when Taylor won a replica Kevin Smith jersey during the Lions’ draft party at Ford Field.

But something was strange about the No. 34 jersey.

The Smith name on the back looked bulky. So they cut it off and were shocked to see the name Jones underneath.

It appears the Lions repurposed some old Kevin Jones jerseys, turning them into Smith jerseys and gave them away to season-ticket holders.

“It was kind of a punch in the stomach,” Allen said.

“Coupled with the frustration of the draft, here is yet another piece of fire thrown in.”

I guess the Lions had to cutback any way they could after paying Matthew Stafford $41.5 million in guarantees.

What I want to know is, who had the bright idea to try and get away with something like this? What, did the Lions think that their fans wouldn’t realize that there were two names printed on the back of the jersey? What a joke!

Last night, the NBA held its Shooting Stars (zzzzz), Skills Challenge (zzzz), Three-Point Shootout and Slam Dunk Contest. Here are a six random observations about the night’s events, which include some breaking news for those that missed the event.

1. It would be nice if the contestants in the Skills Challenge would actually try to win.
Devin Harris looked like he was in another gear compared to his competitors, but struggled with the passing and shooting and ultimately finished second to Derrick Rose who was just about perfect in those parts of the course. Mo Williams looked like he didn’t even want to be there and Tony Parker couldn’t make a jumper to save his life. Harris was the only one that was actually putting forth any effort during the dribbling portion. Most of these guys are more interested in looking cool than looking like they want to win, and that’s a shame.

2. Did Kenny Smith take annoying pills just before the Three-Point Shootout?
When he wasn’t declaring that the eventual champion (Daequan Cook) didn’t have a chance to win the contest, he was flip-flopping like crazy during each round. At one point, during the middle rack of balls, he said that Rashard Lewis didn’t have a chance to advance, and then when Lewis his four out of five on the final rack to advance, Smith said, “I told you so.” I was rooting for Cook just to see Smith eat crow, and he never did. On a side note, Reggie Miller and his sister have the most non-broadcast type voices. I like what Reggie has to say, so he gets a pass, but I’m not sure what Cheryl brings to the table. (To be fair, that’s probably true of any sideline reporter not named Erin Andrews.)

Now, for a little news about players that are probably on your league’s waiver wire…

The Browns may be looking to make a change after Derek Anderson’s shaky outing (14/37, 136 yards, TD). The Brady Quinn era could start soon…As long as Chris Chambers is out, Malcom Floyd (7-140-2 over the last two weeks) looks like a sneaky good start…With both Brandon Lloyd and Devin Hester hobbled, Rashied Davis (3-24) and Marty Booker (3-79-1) become even more important at WR…Cedric Benson (15 touches, 62 yards) is now the starting running back in Cincy, and he didn’t look too bad in the Steelers’ blowout win…Ryan Fitzpatrick (164 yards, TD) did a pretty good job filling in for Carson Palmer, who may be out a while…Kolby Smith (12 touches, 25 yards) was the main ballcarrier with Larry Johnson out and he (and the Chiefs) were ineffective against the Titans’ stout defense…Greg Camarillo (6-74) continues to post spot starter numbers in PPR leagues…Josh Morgan (5-86-1) finally had a good game. I wouldn’t run out and try to acquire him, but he’s a guy to monitor…Vernon Davis (1-5) proved that last week’s nice game was a fluke. Leave him on the waiver wire unless you’re absolutely desperate…Donnie Avery (9-138-1 over the last two weeks) is worth a pickup in bigger leagues…Kevin Smith (11 touches, 68 yards, TD) may not technically be the starter, but he sure looks like the Lions’ best RB…Mike Furrey (6-89) deserves a big upgrade (especially in PPR leagues) now that Roy Williams is gone…Ahman Green (15 touches, 65 yards, TD) looks like he’ll get considerable work as long as he’s healthy. The Texans want to avoid wearing down Steve Slaton…There was a Javon Walker (5-75-1) sighting! Is this a reason to get excited? Doubtful, but monitor the situation going forward…Jeff Garcia (310 yards, TD) is back in the saddle in Tampa and he’s roster worthy going forward.

Adrian Peterson certainly made it easy on voters last year. After rushing for 1,341 yards, 12 touchdowns and a 5.6-yard per carry average, Peterson was an easy choice for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.

So who is this year’s Adrian Peterson? Despite popular belief, the OROY doesn’t have to lead his team to the playoffs, as Peterson proved last year. He just has to stand out from the rest of the pack – easy, right?

Below is a look at the OROY candidates for the 2008 NFL Season. I’ve ranked the top 10 candidates based on their chances along with reasons why (and why they won’t) win the award.

1. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Ryan earned the starting quarterback job after a solid preseason, including completing 15 of 21 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons’ 17-3 win over Tennessee. Forget the huge contract and the fact that Atlanta wants to erase the thought of Michael Vick – Ryan can play. He looked comfortable, poised and completely in control running the Falcons’ offense and has enough weapons in Michael Turner, Jerious Norwood and Roddy White to be effective. As long as the offensive line gives him protection like it did this preseason, Ryan might be the best bet to win OROY honors. It also doesn’t hurt that he plays the quarterback position and will likely receive a ton of media attention.

2. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers
Stewart has run very well so far in preseason. He rushed 10 times for 100 yards in the Panthers’ third exhibition game and even had a fantastic 50-yard touchdown run that highlighted both his power and breakaway speed. Defenses contained Carolina’s ground attack last year, but that was largely due to ineffective quarterback play. Teams knew that the Panthers were going to try and run the football and often played with eight men in the box. But now that QB Jake Delhomme is healthy again, the Panthers’ offense should be more balanced and thus defenses will have to respect both the run and the pass. He’ll split time with DeAngelo Williams, but Stewart is going to get plenty of opportunities to make plays this season. Not only that, but he looks like a solid overall player.

3. Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears
The Bears parted with twinkle-toes Cedric Benson this offseason after multiple off-field incidents. The team drafted Forte in the second round and after Benson was released, and the rookie immediately became the starter. Forte has good size, runs hard between the tackles and shows some decent burst when he gets into the open field. But Chicago’s line has to hold up. Center Olin Kreutz, right guard Roberto Garza and right tackle John St. Clair are all decent run blockers, but there are major question marks on the left side of the line. Even so, Forte is going to have plenty of opportunities to make plays this season, especially if backup Kevin Jones can’t stay healthy.

In the realm of fantasy football, using early picks on rookies is usually a dicey proposition. It’s not often that a rookie comes into the league and is able to quickly establish fantasy relevance, though a few players do break through every season. Typically, a few running backs make an immediate impact, as that is the easiest position to transition to from college. In 2007, Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch were drafted for the sole purpose of taking over their team’s running game, and they both went on to have successful seasons. Even an undrafted rookie like Ryan Grant can have an impact if he finds the right situation. (I was lucky enough to snatch him off the waiver wire before he went on his 10-game train ride to fantasy stardom. I went on to win the title in that league despite disappointing performances from two of my keepers – Shaun Alexander and Marvin Harrison.)

Last year’s wide receiver crop was a bit thinner. Dwayne Bowe was the top rookie, finishing in the top 20 in most scoring formats. This was an upset considering all the fantasy owners that were drooling over Calvin Johnson’s intangibles before the season started. James Jones and Anthony Gonzalez flirted with fantasy relevance, but otherwise rookie wideouts didn’t make much of an impact in 2007. But every year, it seems like there’s one or two that become starter-worthy. (Who can forget Marques Colston’s 2006 campagin?)

So let’s take a look at this year’s top fantasy rookies and see who’s likely to make an impact.

RUNNING BACKS

1. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (pictured)
Stewart is a power back and that’s the Panthers’ style. DeAngelo Williams has been something of a disappointment, so if Stewart runs well during the rest of the preseason, it’s not inconceivable that he could earn a starting role. However, durability is a concern with Stewart, so it is more likely that the Panthers will split carries to keep him fresh and injury-free.

2. Darren McFadden, Raiders
Due to his combination of strength and speed, some compare the #4 overall pick to Adrian Peterson. McFadden joins Justin Fargas and Michael Bush in the Raider backfield. Fargas had something of a breakout season in 2007 and Bush is running very well in camp, but McFadden will still get his touches. The team has said they’d like to use McFadden like the Saints used Reggie Bush in his rookie season. Oakland won’t want to wear him out, so this looks like a RBBC for the time being.

3. Matt Forte, Bears
The Bears drafted Forte in the second round to shore up a struggling running game. Cedric Benson was a bust, but the offensive line has been suspect for a couple of years now, so there’s no telling just how much Forte will help Chicago’s ground game. He has looked solid in the preseason, and should be a solid RB3 in most fantasy leagues.

4. Kevin Smith, Lions
Smith is one of the more promising rookies simply because the Lions don’t have any other good options at tailback. Tatum Bell and Brian Calhoun haven’t made their mark, so it’s Smith’s job to lose. He has had durability and character issues during his career, so there is some question as to whether or not he can hold up to the wear-and-tear of a 16-game season. Still, given the lack of competition, he’s an intriguing middle-round fantasy pick.

5. Chris Johnson, Titans
The diminutive speedster seems to be earning a bigger and bigger role as the preseason wears on. LenDale White will get most of the work between the tackles (and, presumably, around the goal line), but Johnson will see a lot of work in the passing game and as a change-of-pace back.

6. Ray Rice, Ravens (pictured)
With Willis McGahee coming off of knee surgery, and Rice impressing in camp, there’s a real possibility that the rookie starts at tailback in Week 1. There are rumblings that the team is none too happy with McGahee’s (lack of a) work ethic, so Rice’s value is enhanced in keeper or dynasty leagues.

7. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
The Steelers raised some eyebrows (including Willie Parker’s) when they drafted Mendenhall in the first round. For now, they see him as a complement to “Fast” Willie, but he should eventually turn into an every-down back. The writing is on the wall for Parker; it’s just a matter of time before Mendenhall takes over as the Steelers’ feature back.

8. Steve Slaton, Texans
Ahman Green is hurt. Big surprise. Chris Brown is hurt. Big surprise. Somebody has to carry the ball in Houston and Slaton is second in line after Chris Taylor. Slaton has better speed, but Taylor is a little more physical. If Green and Brown continue to miss time, we might be looking at a Taylor/Slaton RBBC in Houston.

9. Felix Jones, Cowboys
Jones is the “lightning� to Marion Barber’s “thunder,� but this isn’t a timeshare. Barber is the main back, and Jones will be used to spell him and to add some punch out of the backfield in the passing game. Barber owners should definitely target Jones as a handcuff in the late-middle rounds.