Everyone loves to focus on the lottery, but there are good players to be had in the late first round as well. A while back, I put together a list of the top second round picks of the modern era, so now I’m going to focus on those players that were drafted between pick #21 and pick #30 in the first round. (Note: If a player was drafted in the second round, even if they were taken with the #29 or #30 pick overall, they are ineligible to make the list. Sorry, Gilbert.) Since there are more star-quality players available in the 20’s, I’m limiting this list to the last ten drafts (i.e. 1999 through 2008).

It is sometimes tough to rank older players with newer players, but even if a younger player holds more trade value right now, I am going to take into account each player’s entire career. For the young guys, I have to project a little bit, so keep that in mind as you read and react. I feel great about the top eight guys, but there are a few players that missed the list that are pretty interchangeable with #9 and #10.

On with the list…

10. Aaron Brooks, Rockets
26th pick in 2007
I had to decide between Brooks and Nate Robinson here and went with Brooks given his fine performance in the playoffs this season (16.8 ppg, 3.4 apg, 42% from 3PT) and how Robinson’s numbers are a little inflated playing for Mike D’Antoni. Brooks is not a natural point guard, but his sharpshooting is a good fit given Houston’s inside-out attack. He’s small, but he’s quick and is able to score at the rim when given some daylight. The Rockets feel good enough about Brooks to trade Rafer Alston away midseason, so you have to like his upside.

9. Kendrick Perkins, Celtics
27th pick in 2003 (drafted by the Grizzlies)
In the world of “big” guys, I also considered Boris Diaw here, but it’s tough to pass on a 6′10″ 24-year-old who averaged 8.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game on a team loaded with vets. Without Kevin Garnett in the playoffs, the C’s needed Perkins to step up his game and he responded with 11.9 points, 11.6 boards and 2.6 blocks per contest. He also did a pretty good job on Dwight Howard, who had his worst numbers of the playoffs against the Celtics.

8. David Lee, Knicks
30th pick in 2005
Isiah Thomas couldn’t make a good trade to save his life, but he could spot talent in the draft. Lee has turned out to be a steal with the last pick in the 2005 draft. He’s an athletic lefty whose best traits are his hustle and smarts. In just his fourth season, Lee averaged 16.0 points and 11.7 rebounds per game, which made him one of the most consistent double-double guys in the league. His stock is so high right now that the Knicks might be able to use him as trade bait in order to land Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. Maybe they’d be better off sticking with Lee…

Read the rest of this entry »

Yes, it’s 12 days old and the trade deadline has passed, but if you haven’t had the chance to check out his annual trade value opus, it’s a good read. He ranks the top 40 players by total trade value (i.e. age, upside, salary, talent, etc.). Here’s what he has to say about Tim Duncan:

4. Tim Duncan
His finishes in the Trade Value column since 2001: No. 2, No. 3, No. 1, No. 2, No. 1, No. 3, No. 3, No. 4. Uncanny. Speaking of consistency, check out his 12 regular seasons (including this one) split into groups of three seasons …

Duncan (first three years): 22-12-3, 52 percent FG, missed eight games.

Duncan (next three years): 23-13-4, 51 percent FG, missed eight games.

Duncan (next three years): 21-12-3, 50 percent FG, missed 31 games.

Duncan (last three years): 20-11-3, 52 percent FG, missed five games.

Then, remember that he also played 155 playoff games and averaged a 23-13-4 with 50 percent shooting, plus first-class defense and leadership. And sprinkle in the little fact that no Duncan team has ever lost even 30 games in a regular season. Translation: Greatest power forward ever, most consistent superstar ever and you cannot sleep on him in May and June.

I do take issue with a few of his rankings…

Yao at #7? Too injury prone.
KG ahead of Deron Williams? Garnett is too old.
Nash at #23 (ahead of Rondo, Devin Harris, Mayo, Kevin Martin)? Seems awfully high for a 35 year-old.

There are a few others, but I’m not going to nitpick.

Another one bites the dust.

After a 6-18 start, the Kings are reportedly going to fire Reggie Theus.

Theus is the sixth NBA coach to be fired before Christmas this season, joining Philadelphia’s Maurice Cheeks, Minnesota’s Randy Wittman, Toronto’s Sam Mitchell, Washington’s Eddie Jordan and Oklahoma City’s P.J. Carlesimo.

Assistant coach Kenny Natt will be elevated to interim coach, sources said.

The Kings exceeded most external expectations in 2007-08 with a 39-43 record in Theus’ first season as an NBA head coach following a successful stint coaching New Mexico State.

But Theus’ relationship with management has been strained for months. An upset of the Los Angeles Lakers last Tuesday night without Martin appeared to ease the pressure on Theus, but the calm didn’t last when the Kings were never competitive in a 24-point home loss to the Knicks.

It sounds like it was Theus’ “strained” relationship with management that did him in. After all, he has been without his best player, Kevin Martin, for 15 of his team’s 24 games. If Martin plays, the Kings’ record is almost certainly better.

Here’s a quick list of the top 10 shooting guards under the age of 26, ranked in the order of a combination of current performance and trade value (regardless of salary).

I’ll also list the player’s age and his Player Efficiency Rating.

1. Brandon Roy, Blazers
Age: 24
PER: 22.93
How do you like Roy’s smooth 21.1 points and 5.3 assists? He’s the cornerstone to a resurgent Portland franchise.

2. Kevin Martin, Kings
Age: 25
PER: 18.90
His line is a little thin – 2.9 assists, 2.8 rebounds – but boy can he score.

3. Kevin Durant, Thunder
Age: 20
PER: 17.26
His FG% is three percent higher this season and he’s hitting 47% of his treys. I’d rather see him play small forward, but he’s listed as an off guard.

4. O.J. Mayo, Grizzlies
Age: 21
PER: 17.13
It’s tough to argue with Mayo’s 21.3 points per game, especially when he’s shooting pretty well from the field (46%) and long range (39%). The Grizzlies have something going with their core of Mayo and Rudy Gay.

5. Andre Iguodala, Sixers
Age: 23
PER: 14.56
It has been a down year for Iggy, who has seen his scoring drop by 6.0 points per game since the arrival of Elton Brand. His FG% is down and his 3PT% is brutal (23%), but his rebounds and assists are up. Think the Sixers would trade him for Mayo or Durant straight up? I do.

6. Rudy Fernandez, Blazers
Age: 23
PER: 18.35
He’s been better than advertised. He’s only playing 26 minutes a game, but he’s scoring well (11.6 ppg) and is shooting the long ball often (2.3 made threes per game) and accurately (44%).

7. Ronnie Brewer, Jazz
Age: 23
PER: 16.32
Brewer is building on last year’s breakout season. He’s not a great three-point shooter (32%), but he’s improved in that area of the game. His contributions elsewhere – 3.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.0 steals – make him valuable.

8. Ben Gordon, Bulls
Age: 25
PER: 17.77
Gordon is playing for a contract and while his points are up (20.4), his three-point accuracy is down (37%).

9. Delonte West, Cavs
Age: 25
PER: 14.52
West has settled in nicely with the Cavs. He’s averaging 11.4 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.0 assists, and is shooting 50% from the field and 41% from long range.

10. Nick Young, Wizards
Age: 23
PER: 15.03
His line is thin, but he’s averaging 11.8 points in 24 minutes, and basketball is (mostly) about putting the ball in the hoop.

Other lists:

Top 10 Young Point Guards
Top 10 Young Small Forwards

Offseason Movement: The team traded Ron Artest to the Rockets for forward Donte Greene and a future first round pick. Artest played well for the Kings and rehabbed his image to a certain extent. The Kings essentially traded him for two late first round picks, which isn’t a bad deal. The distraction is gone and the Kings can continue the rebuilding process.
Keep Your Eye On: John Salmons/Francisco Garcia, GF
With Artest in Houston, there are a lot of minutes to be had at small forward. Both players are versatile and can play a little point guard as well. Salmons plays much better in a starting role and is the better slasher, while Garcia is the better shooter and ballhandler. Given his production as a starter, Salmons figures to take over that role, but Garcia will get a lot of minutes off the bench.
The Big Question: Are the Kings good enough to contend for a playoff spot?
Sacramento finished 12 games out of the #8 spot in the West last season and lost Ron Artest. They’re a young team, so collectively they’ll need big progress to overcome that loss of talent and 12 games in the West. This looks like a team that will compete on a nightly basis but will ultimately finish with 30-35 wins in a tough conference.
Outlook: I like what the Kings are doing, but I wonder if giving PG Beno Udrih a big contract (five years, $33 million) was the right thing to do. They must see him as their point guard of the future, but on a PER basis, he was the #30 PG in the league. They are building around Kevin Martin (pictured), and project to have a ton of cap space in the summer of 2010, when they’ll likely look to add a star free agent. In addition to Martin, if another one of their young players (Udrih, Spencer Hawes, Jason Thompson, Donte Green, Shelden Williams) can develop into a star, the Kings will be in business in two or three years.

Check out our NBA Preview page for a look at every team. We’ll be posting three previews per business day, which will take us up to the start of the season on Tuesday, October 28th.