ESPN asked five Minnesota-related questions of its network of NBA bloggers and it’s once again time for me to piggy-back on the proceedings.

1. Fact or Fiction: Ricky Rubio will be a star.

Fiction: I think he can be a better than average NBA starter, but by all accounts he hasn’t developed over the last couple of seasons as was expected. His shooting percentage is pretty dreadful, so that inaccuracy will limit his upside. On a positive side, he has great court vision and is a pretty good defender. I don’t see stardom, but I do see starterdom.

2. Fact or Fiction: Rick Adelman should be the Wolves’ next coach.

Fact. He’s the best coach available and has had success just about everywhere he’s landed. He’s not going to turn this ship around quickly, but he’ll make the T-Wolves better.

3. Fact or Fiction: Derrick Williams should start.

Fact. Let’s see if he can play the 3. If it’s a disaster, then bring him off the bench in a 6th man role and let him build his confidence against the other team’s backups. It’s not like losing a few games early is going to tank the T-Wolves’ season. It’s already tanked.

4. Fact or Fiction: Michael Beasley has a bright future in Minnesota.

Fiction. It’s doubtful that he has a bright future anywhere. This is a guy who, at one of these glorified playground games, recently pushed a fan in the face because he couldn’t take the criticism. Maybe he’ll turn it around — you never know. He did post nice numbers on a bad team in 2010-11.

5. Fact or Fiction: Minny makes the playoffs while K-Love is still there.

Fiction. I’m not in Love’s head, but I wouldn’t re-sign with a team that is run by David Kahn. So unless the team fires Kahn and brings in a great basketball mind, Love will likely sign elsewhere even though the T-Wolves can (currently) offer the most money.

Over the past few weeks, I’ve tackled the MVP race, triple-dozens, point guard characteristics and three-point shooters, and now it’s time to take a look at rebounding.

To be eligible, a player has to meet the following criteria:

1. He must appear in at least 50 games.
2. He must play in at least 24.0 minutes a game.

I took the top 30 players in terms of Total Rebounding Rate (the number of rebounds a player gets as a percentage of total available rebounds available while he’s on the floor) and plotted Offensive Rebounding Rate (ORR%) against Defensive Rebounding Rate (DRR%).

Here is the list of eligible players (in alphabetical order): Andrew Bogut, Carlos Boozer, Kwame Brown (yes, Kwame Brown), Marcus Camby, Tyson Chandler, DeMarcus Cousins, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Pau Gasol, Marcin Gortat, Blake Griffin, Chuck Hayes, Roy Hibbert, J.J. Hickson, Nene Hilario, Al Horford, Dwight Howard, Kris Humphries, Serge Ibaka, Josh Smith, Al Jefferson, Amir Johnson, DeAndre Jordan, David Lee, Kevin Love, JaVale McGee, Greg Monroe, Lamar Odom, Emeka Okafor and Zach Randolph.

Below is the chart. As always, click on it to see a bigger version.

Read the rest of this entry »

Rotoworld has the details…

Kevin Love, who suffered a shoulder injury on Wednesday, had 18 points, 18 rebounds and zero 3-pointers for his 42nd straight double-double, and 51st before the All-Star break, setting an NBA record.

George Mikan had 50 double-doubles before the break in 1950, but Love snapped that record tonight.

For those of you who have pretty much ignored the T-Wolves this year, Love is having an outstanding season, averaging 21.1 points and 15.5 rebounds, and is shooting 43% from long range. He was named to the All-Star Game as an alternate.

The T-Wolves have their sidekick. Now they need to find a perimeter superstar who can shoot the lights out and/or create his own shot. They had two picks in the top 6 back in 2009, but passed on Stephen Curry, Brandon Jennings and DeMar DeRozan (who is averaging 16.4 ppg for the Raptors), and instead came out of the draft with Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn. Curry looks like a star, while Jennings and DeRozan have shown flashes of that kind of potential.

Now it appears that the T-Wolves may trade a first-round pick for Anthony Randolph, who can’t get off the bench for the Knicks. A mid to late first-rounder would be fair, but if the T-Wolves end up trading away their first-rounder (which project to be in the upper lottery) it will be a steep price to pay for a guy who hasn’t made much progress in neither Golden State nor New York. Don’t forget, they owe a first-rounder to the Clippers to finish the dreadful Marko Jaric trade. That pick is top 10 protected in 2011 but is unprotected starting in 2012.

In an SI.com article, Kevin Love didn’t shoot down the possibility that he would change teams in the near future.

Love sees all of this, has absorbed it, processed it. Which is why he is complimentary of the Timberwolves’ progress — “I can see a light at the end of the tunnel,” he said. “I couldn’t see it last year” — but he stops short of saying he plans to be in Minnesota for the long term. Love is eligible to sign a contract extension this summer but admits he does think about free agency, about having some control over his future.

“We’ll see what happens with what David Kahn and the front office want to do,” Love said. “If it’s right, it’s right. If it’s not, it’s not. I could end up somewhere else. I just want to play for a team that wants to win at this point. At this point, I just want to win now.”

Wherever Love goes, he won’t come cheap. The five-year, $60 million extensions signed by Joakim Noah and Al Horford last year will likely be Love’s starting point in negotiations. And his deal could be bigger. When asked what kind of contract Love could be in line for this summer, one league executive’s answer was succinct: Max.

Some internet outlets have jumped on these quotes and started talking trade, but it sounds to me like Love is talking about his extension and keeping his options open before he signs his next contract. He’ll be with the T-Wolves for at least two more seasons, and by then he should have a good idea whether or not the Ricky Rubio dream will ever pan out for GM David Kahn.

Love is averaging 21.0 points and 15.6 rebounds on 46% shooting, which is just so-so accuracy for a power forward. But when you consider his range (43% from 3PT, 1.3 made threes per game), it’s more than acceptable. He’s #2 in PER (24.04) amongst power forwards, second only to Dirk Nowitzki, and has the third-highest rebound rate in the league after Reggie Evans and Marcus Camby, who aren’t asked to do much else other than clean the glass.

Love is putting up gaudy numbers on a bad team, so is he really worth a max contract? Yeah, probably. When you have a guy who can score 20-plus a game and dominate the glass, and stretch the defense with his three-point range, you have to lock him up. I don’t know that Love will ever be the best player on a championship-caliber team — his defense is adequate at best (opponent’s eFG% is a healthy 49.7%, and the T-Wolves give up 4.5 more points per 100 possessions when he’s on the court) — but he’s certainly capable of being one of the best sidekicks in the league. The trick for Minnesota will be to find another star or two before Love has to make a decision about his future.

Ken Berger wrote a piece about the state of the T-Wolves that focuses on Kahn and his plan for the remainder of the season. (In short, he’s evaluating the roster.)

LeBron is in some fairly hot water (…again…) after he spoke without thinking (…again). Here’s what he said about the idea of a less watered-down NBA.

“Hopefully the league can figure out one way where it can go back to the ’80s where you had three or four All-Stars, three or four superstars, three or four Hall of Famers on the same team,” James said. “The league was great. It wasn’t as watered down as it is [now].”

“[Contraction] is not my job; I’m a player but that is why it, the league, was so great,” James said.

“Imagine if you could take Kevin Love off Minnesota and add him to another team and you shrink the [league]. Looking at some of the teams that aren’t that great, you take Brook Lopez or you take Devin Harris off these teams that aren’t that good right now and you add him to a team that could be really good. Not saying let’s take New Jersey and let’s take Minnesota out of the league. But hey, you guys are not stupid, I’m not stupid, it would be great for the league.”

Anyone who knows the definition of ‘contraction’ knows that’s what LeBron is talking about here. Some people believe that it would be good for the NBA if there weren’t so many teams because there would be more stars on each team and the quality of play would go up. The downside with this strategy is teams (like Minnesota and New Jersey in LeBron’s example) would no longer exist.

So LeBron is in favor of contraction. Wait — no he’s not:

“That’s crazy, because I had no idea what the word ‘contraction’ meant before I saw it on the Internet,” James said after the Miami Heat’s practice Monday. “I never even mentioned that. That word never even came out of my mouth. I was just saying how the league was back in the ’80s and how it could be good again. I never said, ‘Let’s take some of the teams out.’ ”

“I’m with the players, and the players know that,” James said Monday. “I’ve been with the players. It’s not about getting guys out of the league or knocking teams out. I didn’t mean to upset nobody. I didn’t tell Avery Johnson to leave either. I didn’t say let’s abandon the Nets, and not let them move to Brooklyn or let’s tear down the Target Center in Minnesota. I never said that.”

Welcome to Semantics 101, with Professor LeBron. No, he didn’t say that we should be “knocking teams out,” but he did say how great it would be if the league weren’t so watered down, which would absolutely require fewer teams. He didn’t say the T-Wolves shouldn’t exist, but he did say it would be great if Minnesota’s star player were arbitrarily moved to another team. What happens to the T-Wolves in his world?

Just because he didn’t say the word contraction doesn’t mean that he didn’t come out in favor of contraction.

I like the Sportress of Blogitude‘s take on this:

Aha! That is sound, logical reasoning right there. How can LeBron be in favor of something if he has never even heard of the word until he saw it on the internet? Allow me to illustrate: let’s say – simply for the sake of argument only – that some misguided pundit argued that killing some of the babies born into the world every day would be an effective means of population control. Obviously, such a deplorable opinion would generate a lot of controversy. But if someone later asked said pundit how they possibly could be in favor of infanticide, that person could potentially argue that if they have never heard of the word “infanticide” before, how could they be in favor of it? Unless a person can identify the exact word which perfectly describes some particular act, they cannot in any way support said act, even if that person previously stated they were in favor of exactly what that particular word means. It’s all about semantics, you see.

Well played, LeBron. Well played. Your keen mastery of logic mystifies us all.

That about sums it up.

The 2010-11 NBA season starts tonight (Miami and Boston tip things off tonight at 7:30 ET on TNT) and while most eyes will be on one-name superstars like LeBron, Wade, Kobe and Melo, it’s fun to try to predict who this season’s breakout players will be.

It takes more than just talent to succeed in the NBA. It takes opportunity as well, and each of the 12 players I’ve listed before figure to play a more prominent role than they did last season. I didn’t include any rookies (or Blake Griffin, who qualifies as a rookie) because in order to break out, you have to have a baseline season to start from.

1. Kevin Love, Timberwolves
After spending most of last season coming off the bench, Love has started all eight preseason games and has averaged 18-11 while shooting 14-of-24 from long range. Neither Michael Beasley nor Darko Milicic are aggressive rebounders, so Love has a chance to lead the league in boards this season. I suspect Love will be in consideration for the All-Star team in January.

2. Darren Collison, Pacers
Indiana’s best move this offseason was to acquire Collison from the Hornets. He had a very nice rookie year, but the starting gig is his now and he doesn’t have to look over his shoulder wondering what’s going on with Chris Paul. He averaged 13-3-4 in the preseason, but I’d expect those numbers to rise with bigger minutes. He should be good for 16-4-6 this season.

3. Jrue Holiday, Sixers
Doug Collins is really high on Holiday, predicting that he’ll be a Top 5 point guard in the league sooner rather than later. He averaged 13-4-6 in March of last season and posted 12-6-5 in the preseason.

4. Roy Hibbert, Pacers
Hibbert averaged 12-6 in 25 minutes per game last season, but in seven preseason games, he has increased those averages to 17-9, though he’s shooting just 43% from the field, which is a little worrisome. Still, with Troy Murphy gone, there are a lot of minutes available on the front line, and Hibbert should get his fair share.

Read the rest of this entry »

ESPN named the Minnesota Timberwolves as this season’s Team Turmoil.

But Benjamin Polk says that things aren’t so bad:

It’s fashionable at the moment to ridicule Kahn as an abrasive, unqualified hack. It’s clear the man has had some awfully low moments this summer and that he and Rambis haven’t yet found that transcendent player who will give meaning to their long-suffering franchise. And it’s equally clear that the Wolves are going to lose a lot of games this season.

But if you scan this lineup — Kevin Love, Nikola Pekovic, Wes Johnson, Martell Webster, Corey Brewer, even Darko Milicic and Michael Beasley — you’ll find a lot of young, smart, athletic, hungry players. These are players who want to learn, who want to run, who want to move the ball and play defense. Aren’t these just the type of players who would seem to fit well into Rambis’ up-tempo-and-triangle offense? And when you consider the Wolves have roughly $10 million in cap space, doesn’t the picture look a lot less ridiculous than this chaotic offseason might have suggested?

Am I just being naïve? Is it wrong for Wolves fans to hold on to even these tiny shreds of optimism? Let me tell you a story.

For the three years beginning with their six-game Western Conference finals loss to the Lakers in 2004 and ending with the Kevin Garnett trade of 2007, the Wolves slowly melted down. With very few exceptions (KG among them), the team became a nightmare of ball-hogging, extravagant contract demands, intentionally careless defense and mediocre effort. As the front office hemorrhaged draft picks, this collection of aging jump-shooters and corrosive personalities contributed to the firing of both Flip Saunders and Dwane Casey and helped hasten the KG era’s sad, pathetic end. What I’m saying is: We’ve seen turmoil and this isn’t it.

I don’t know that arguing your currently mismanaged team isn’t as bad as your previously mismanaged team really gets you anywhere. Things are bad in Minnesota, and they’re probably worse than they were in KG’s final years because at least at that point fans had a superstar to rally around.

As for Kahn, the guy is a joke right now, and seriously needs one of these moves — be it Ricky Rubio, Wes Johnson, the acquisition of Michael Beasley or the re-upping of Darko Milicic (yes, this guy is depending on Darko Freaking Milicic) — to give him some credibility in the world of NBA general managers.

No disrespect to Johnson, but if you know you’re going to move Al Jefferson, why pass up a talent like DeMarcus Cousins? He’s a true center and would have been a solid fit alongside Kevin Love on the front line. Throw in the fact that Kahn passed on Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings twice in last year’s draft (while trading away arguably the next-best PG in the draft, Ty Lawson) and this T-Wolves roster could look a lot better.

And it’s not like Kahn has kept a low profile. While sitting in with color commentator Chris Webber during one of the summer league games, he compared Milicic’s passing ability favorably to Vlade Divac and suggested that Webber’s career path was somewhat similar. When C-Webb understandably took umbrage, Kahn went on the radio a few days later and called him a schmuck. Let’s just say that the guy doesn’t seem too savvy.

Maybe Ricky Rubio will eventually come and save the day, or Beasley will suddenly fulfill his considerable potential, but until that happens, Kahn is going to have a big fat bull’s eye painted on his chest.

Kevin Love has some experience being hated by his hometown fans. He left Oregon to play for UCLA, and there were plenty of Duck and Beaver fans that were none too happy about it. When asked about LeBron’s decision to form the Super Friends with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, this is what Love had to say:

You can’t blame LeBron for wanting to play with two other superstars and contend for as many titles for as many years that they will be together. I do have some empathy for him for what he went through because people from my state hated me for going to UCLA and going out of state—taking my talents [makes quotation marks with his hands and smiles real big] to UCLA and Los Angeles. I do have empathy for him but at the same time I don’t because he did have an hour-long pay per view press conference to say a few sentences about where he was going. I like what Dwyane and Chris did. They got on Pardon the Interruption and said ‘Hey listen, we’re going to play together and we’re excited.’ Chris said his rap about loving the fans of Toronto and never forgetting what they did. I just thought the hour long press conference was way too much.

It seems like people fall into three groups when it comes to “The Decision”: 1) those that understand/like the move to Miami, and are fine with the special, 2) those that understand/like the move to Miami, but thought the special was inappropriate, and 3) those that hate the special and hate LeBron’s decision to join forces with two other stars.

It seems like most people fall into category #2 or #3. (I’m a member of #2, and it looks like Love is as well.)

Henry Abbott of TrueHoop poses one of the more puzzling questions that has been troubling me for some time.

How did one of the NBA’s more respected franchises, one with some strong characters like Pat Riley and Alonzo Mourning on the case, give up on an affordable player with insane potential?

Remember that enormous mess his life became last summer? With the rehab and all that?

They got to know him for two years and, after shopping around for months and months and finding no takers, ditched him for almost nothing.

This in a league where players with far less going for them than Beasley get paid for their potential all the time.

That’s not good.

And it’s not like his play as been abysmal. His PER last season was in the top 100 of all players, above average in the 16s, one notch ahead of Luol Deng who has what was until this month the biggest contract in Chicago Bulls’ history. Also trailing Beasley in regular season production last season: respected players like Aaron Brooks, Lamar Odom, Anderson Varejao, Jameer Nelson, Kyle Lowry, and Ray Allen. Nobody thinks Beasley has even scratched the surface of his NBA potential, but even at last year’s level he’s a bargain for a guy still on his rookie contract.

There’s a story in there somewhere. But from what has been made public, it makes no sense at all that the Heat would have to give him away.

While most of the focus this season will be about his old team, I’m really interested to what Beasley does with a fresh start in Minnesota. On his databasebasketball page, two players that are listed with high similarity scores are Brook Lopez and Kevin Love, so Beasley is obviously a talented guy. He’s just 21 years old and in two seasons has averaged 14 points and six boards while shooting 46% from the field.

Something strange happened in Miami and hopefully one day we’ll find out exactly what it was.