At some point, I’ll stop writing these “Oklahoma City is surprising” posts, but I have to say that I was surprised when I saw that the Thunder upset the Heat in Miami. A big reason for the win was Kevin Durant, who posted 32 points, nine rebounds, five assists, one steal and one blocked shot. He hit 11-23 shots, including 1-2 from downtown. He made all nine of his free throws.
With the win, the young Thunder are 6-5 and are currently in the 7th spot in the playoffs in the West, although we obviously have a long way to go. It would be fun to see Oklahoma fighting for a playoff spot at the end of the season.
In just 31 minutes of playing time, Kevin Durant posted 28 points, five assists, four rebounds and three steals in a 102-74 win over the Magic. Durant shot 11-17 from the field as the young Thunder upended a shorthanded Orlando team. (The Magic were without Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson due to sprained ankles, and Rashard Lewis is still suspended.)
It was the second time that Durant dished out five assists this season. As he matures, he’s going to need to develop his playmaking ability. He’s a wonderful scorer, but with the kind of attention he’s going to draw, he will have an opportunity to create a ton of shots for his teammates.
In Friday’s post, The Kevin Durant Conundrum, TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott outlines why — based mostly on the reearch of Dallas Mavericks’ statistical expert, Wayne Winston — Durant is not helping his team.
The Thunder have, over the last two years, consistently performed worse than normal when Durant is on the floor. Any way you slice the +/- numbers, he’s one of the Thunder’s worst players.
You read that correctly. Kevin Durant, uniformly regarded as an out-of-this-world NBA player, has been killing his team.
Sometimes +/- can punish players simply for being on bad teams, but this is more than that. Mavericks’ statistical expert Wayne Winston’s in-depth lineup data shows that every one of Durant’s key teammates — Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green, Nenad Krstic, Nick Collison — gets better, in many cases far better, results playing with less heralded teammates Thabo Sefolosha or Kyle Weaver while Durant sits.
In fact, almost nobody on the Thunder has a +/- rating as poor as Durant’s. Winston rates Durant’s performance “in the lowest 10% of all NBA players.”
Abbott goes on to speculate as to why these numbers are the way they are, narrowing it to four different theories: 1) he plays big minutes on a bad team, 2) his teammates are bad, 3) it’s hard to play with a superstar, and 4) he’s very young and he’s likely to see his team outscored.
Durant must have heard about the column, because he fired back via his Twitter account with a series of tweets, obviously aimed at the article:
Everybody that is doubtin me as a player and my team as a whole..all i can say is that we all are tryin and workin our hardest!
What more do u want? let me be the player i am…i come to practice everyday..and push myself to my limit, God has put me n a gr8 position!!
I love all the REAL basketball fans who appreciate hardwork, passion and love for the game..and not jus “plus and minuses”…wateva dat is!
Here’s the deal: For two years, when you have been in NBA games, you have put up amazing numbers, but somehow your team has been better when you sat. When you have been out there, opponents have outscored your team pretty bad. When you sit, they don’t outscore your team as much. That’s what plus/minus is.
(The final score, by the way, is also plus/minus. If you play the entire game, and the team wins by twenty, you’re plus-20. It’s not one of those stats you want to ignore. Not when for two years it has been saying the same thing.)
In it, he discusses how Durant’s problems with the pick-and-roll, both offensively and defensively, are hurting the Thunder. It’s a good read for basketball nuts (like me).
As Abbott states in his Monday post, this is nothing to panic about. Durant just turned 21 and still has a lot to learn, especially on the defensive end. Even so, he’s still one of the best prospects in the league and has the potential to be one of the league’s true (few) franchise players. When a player is a terrific scorer (like Durant is), his faults are often overlooked. But that doesn’t mean they go unnoticed by the coaching staff or the opponent. It’s important for the Thunder to dig into these numbers and identify why they are the way they are. If they can fix the cause, it’s likely going to translate to wins for the franchise.
Oh, and the answer to the question in this post’s title is, yes, of course he’s a great player. But he still has room to grow.
Every so often, I’ll be sitting at a bar, throwing back a few adult beverages with a buddy or two and I’ll pose the following question:
If you could have one current NBA player to build your franchise around, with the goal of winning a NBA title in the next five years – who would it be?
Since the 2009 NBA Playoffs are in their infancy, it seems to be as good of a time as any to kick around this question. My criteria are simple – a franchise player has to be able to carry his team, while being reasonably young and injury-free.
We’ll count down from #10 to #1. My top nine guys were pretty easy to list, but #10 was a bitch. Maybe you can help me decide. Feel free to provide your own top 10.
HONORABLE MENTION
Yao Ming, Rockets (28 years-old)
I love Yao’s post up game, and he is a skilled passer, but the chances are only 60/40 that he’ll be healthy for any given playoffs and those odds are only going to decrease as time wears on. He’s like Robert Downey, Jr. — he’s great at what he does, but you just don’t know if he’s going to be there when you need him.
Chauncey Billups, Nuggets (32)
He seems to be more responsible than ‘Melo for the Nuggets’ great play this season, but he’s 32 years old. Still, his effectiveness depends more on strength, steady play and good shooting than it does his (somewhat limited) athleticism, so he should be able to play into his late thirties.
Al Jefferson, Timberwolves (24)
Jefferson is one of the few young, back-to-the-basket post players in the league. He averaged 23/11 on a bad team, which leads me to believe he could post 19/10 on a playoff team, and should only get better with age.
Amare Stoudemire, Suns (26)
He’s four years younger than our next guy, but he’s already had two serious injuries in his career so one wonders if this is a trend. He also seems to be a little bit on the selfish side and has a rep for being a bad defensive player.
No one can fault the job that Portland GM Kevin Pritchard has done so far. In 2005, when he was the Blazers’ interim coach, he reportedly advised then-GM John Nash and Steve Patterson to draft Chris Paul at #3, but the duo instead decided to trade the pick and ended up with Martell Webster at #6. He was promoted to assistant GM in 2006, and was involved in a series of deals that resulted in the acquisition of the draft rights of Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge. In 2007, he was promoted to general manager. That summer, in addition to drafting Greg Oden, he turned Zach Randolph into a trade exception that he used to steal Rudy Fernandez from the Phoenix Suns.
Don’t look now, but Russell Westbrook is on fire. He’s still not shooting the ball particularly well (40% on the season), but check out his February averages:
20.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 5.9 apg and 1.2 spg
He even had his first triple-double the other night when he posted 17 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists against Jason Kidd and the Dallas Mavericks.
Here are Rose’s February numbers:
15.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 6.8 apg and 0.9 spg
Rose is shooting 47% on the season, so he’s a much more efficient scorer.
Still, Rose jumped out to a quick start this season in the ROY race, so it’s interesting to see someone close the gap. I suspect Thunder fans are feeling pretty good about the possibility of having two straight ROY winners. That’s a good way to build a franchise.
Westbrook needs to work on his jumper, but other than that, he looks like the real deal.
One thing that struck me about Bill Simmons’ trade value column was his unabashed hatred for Michael Beasley’s game. He made three separate references to the rookie:
Jason Thompson: I mocked him on draft day and he shoved it in my face like a cream pie. Top-notch energy guy, good defender, lots to like. You know, if Michael Beasley wasn’t such a colossal disappointment and semi-fraud, the 2008 draft could have ranked among the best ever (and certainly superior to the more ballyhooed ‘07 class).
Colossal disappointment? Semi-fraud? Ouch.
Jeff Green: Great teammate, tough as nails, gives a crap, does whatever you need. He’s the anti-Beasley.
So Simmons is saying that Beasley is not a good teammate, isn’t tough, doesn’t give a crap and won’t do whatever you need? Ouch.
You have to love a country where Love’s best rookie card (Upper Deck’s ‘09 SPX set, the signed autographed jersey card) goes for one-eighth the money of Beasley’s card … and yet, Miami could offer Beasley for Love right now and Minnesota would make a face and hang up. Whatever.
Ouch.
All right, so how is Beasley faring this season? Here are his numbers:
Sources with knowledge of the trade parameters told ESPN.com that the deal was approved by the league office Tuesday afternoon, with the Hornets receiving forwards Joe Smith and Chris Wilcox in exchange for their best interior defender.
ESPN.com reported early Monday that the Hornets — who have been looking to move Chandler mostly for financial reasons — were in talks with the Thunder on a trade that would net the expiring contracts of Smith and Wilcox. Thunder general manager Sam Presti is a long-time admirer of Chandler dating to his time with the San Antonio Spurs.
The Thunder also possess numerous draft picks to sweeten trade packages — including five first-round picks in the next two drafts — but Presti was able to land an accomplished center to complement his promising young trio of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green without surrendering any major draft considerations.
With a payroll at nearly $67 million this season and scheduled to reach almost $77 million next season, New Orleans felt it had to part with Chandler before Thursday’s 3 p.m. trading deadline regardless, even though dealing away the 26-year-old almost certainly takes the Hornets out of serious playoff contention in the West.
“…even though dealing away the 26-year-old almost certainly takes the Hornets out of serious playoff contention in the West.”
This is the first time that I can remember (though I’m sure there have been other cases) that a serious title contender traded away one of its best players for financial reasons.
The rosters for the T-Mobile Rookie Challenge have been announced and there are a few surprises.
The rookie roster consists of Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, O.J. Mayo, Eric Gordon, Rudy Fernandez, Michael Beasley, Brook Lopez, Greg Oden and Marc Gasol.
The sophomore roster includes Rodney Stuckey, Aaron Brooks, Kevin Durant, Wilson Chandler, Jeff Green, Al Thornton, Luis Scola, Al Horford and Thaddeus Young.
Kevin Love isn’t on the nine-man roster for the Rookie Challenge, and it’s a big, glaring snub. ESPN’s John Hollinger agrees.
For starters, the decision to select Eric Gordon ahead of Kevin Love for the rookies was completely inexcusable.
Don’t get me wrong; Gordon is going to have a fine career, it seems, and in almost any other year he’d be a shoo-in for the team. But he made this squad mainly because the forlorn Clippers have no choice but to play him extensive minutes.
As good as he’s looked, Gordon is the only rookie team member with a Player Efficiency Rating below the league average, while Love has a better PER than every player on the rookie team except Greg Oden. Love leads the league in offensive rebound rate, as I mentioned the other day, but his prodigious work on the boards has gone largely unnoticed because he plays only 23.2 minutes a game, far less than Gordon’s 32.2.
Love’s absence is especially surprising considering how the rookie roster is loaded with four guards (Rose, Westbrook, Mayo, Gordon), one G/F (Fernandez) and only one true forward (Beasley). You’d think that if it were a tossup between Gordon and Love (which it isn’t) that they’d at least want to get another true forward on the roster to balance things out.
Hollinger goes on to rail against the sophomore roster snubs, which included Wilson Chandler over Jamario Moon, Al Thornton over Carl Landry and the worst of all (he says) — Aaron Brooks over Ramon Sessions.
Interestingly, seven of the top 11 picks of the 2007 draft — Mike Conley, Yi Jianlian, Corey Brewer, Brandan Wright, Joakim Noah, Spencer Hawes and Acie Law — did NOT make the sophomore roster. (I counted Greg Oden amongst the four since he made the rookie roster.) Conversely, six of the top 11 picks in the 2008 draft did make the rookie team.
Check out this finish from the Nuggets/Thunder game last night. Pay special attention to the pair of shots that start at the 1:45 mark.
The big difference in Kevin Durant this season is his shooting percentages. Last season, he shot 43% from the field and 29% from long range. This year, he he’s hitting 46% of his shots and is deadly (44.4%) from three-point range.
The big problem with the Thunder is their defense. Carmelo Anthony caught the ball too easily in the corner, and once he had it, I have no idea why Desmond Mason had his hands down at his waist. He should have extended his arms up to contest the shot — who cares if Anthony tries to dribble around him? There was barely any time left on the clock. That shot reminded me of Raja Bell’s game-winner over Daniel Ewing in the Suns/Clippers playoff series a few years ago.
As for the Nuggets, the Chauncey Billups addition has been huge, but Nene is also playing great basketball. Over the last four seasons, he has missed 59% of his team’s games due to injury. This year, he’s finally healthy, is averaging 15/8 and is shooting 62% from the field. I’m still not sure that it makes sense to trade Marcus Camby away last summer, but Nene is doing his best to make up for that loss. He posted 27 points and 14 rebounds in last night’s win against the Thunder.
At some point, I’ll stop writing these “Oklahoma City is surprising” posts, but I have to say that I was surprised when I saw that the Thunder upset the Heat in Miami. A big reason for the win was Kevin Durant, who posted 32 points, nine rebounds, five assists, one steal and one blocked shot. He hit 11-23 shots, including 1-2 from downtown. He made all nine of his free throws.
