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2013 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

1. Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
The Chiefs cleared a spot along their offensive line when they released steady veteran Eric Winston back in March. With Branden Albert’s future up in the air, Kansas City could stick Joeckel at right tackle with the idea of moving him to the left side once Albert moves on. Or, if Albert winds up signing a long-term deal, he and Joeckel would make nice bookends along the Chiefs’ offensive line for years to come.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
The Jaguars need pass rushers so Florida’s Sharrif Floyd and Oregon’s Dion Jordan are logical choices at this spot. But they also have a new head coach in Gus Bradley and a new GM in David Caldwell, neither of which drafted former top-10 pick Blaine Gabbert. The Jags could allow Gabbert and Chad Henne to battle in 2013 and then re-evaluate the quarterback position heading into 2014. But chances are Bradley and Caldwell will look to put their stamp on things by handpicking their franchise signal caller with this pick.

3. Miami Dolphins: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan (Projected trade with Raiders)
After signing Mike Wallace, Dannell Ellerbe and Phillip Wheeler to lucrative free agent deals in March, why wouldn’t Jeff Ireland continue his aggressive approach on draft night? The Raiders are a logical trade partner because of how few selections they have following Hue Jackson’s brutal acquisition of Carson Palmer two years ago. So, Oakland moves down and stockpiles more picks, and Miami uses this selection to replace the departed Jake Long. Fisher can start on the left side while Jonathan Martin stays at right tackle (his more natural position).

4. Philadelphia Eagles: Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida
Floyd is widely viewed as a three technique defensive tackle, which would make him a poor fit for Philadelphia’s new 3-4 front. But the Eagles did a nice job filling holes in free agency so they’re in position to take the best player available at No. 4, which would be Floyd (at least in this mock). Plus, just because the Eagles will run a 3-4 doesn’t mean they won’t use one-gap principles along their defensive line. While lining up opposite 2012 first-round pick Fletcher Cox, Floyd could be a terror if Philadelphia plays to his strengths. If Floyd is off the board, Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson, Dion Jordan and Star Lotulelei are fits as well.

5. Detroit Lions: Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
Martin Mayhew unsuccessfully tried to trade up to obtain Patrick Peterson two years ago and Stephon Gilmore last year, so he could nab Alabama cornerback Dee Milliner with this pick. But the Lions lost Cliff Avril in free agency and released Kyle Vanden Bosch in early February. Thus, look for Mayhew to address the team’s need for pass rushers and wait until the middle rounds to take a corner or an offensive tackle. (Along with Milliner, Eric Fisher would also be a fit at this spot.)

6. Cleveland Browns: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
The Browns showed interest in free agent Brent Grimes before the veteran corner signed a one-year deal with the Dolphins. The Browns could potentially trade back and still fill their need at corner, but why not take the best defensive back in this year’s draft?

7. Arizona Cardinals: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
Bruce Arians has thrown his support behind his offensive line since becoming the team’s newest head coach, but the bottom line is that the Cardinals had the league’s worst offensive tackle combination last season. Johnson will need to refine his technique but he has plenty of upside and addresses a pressing need for Arizona.

8. Buffalo Bills: Dion Jordan, LB, Oregon
There’s a chance that Jordan won’t fall to this pick but in this mock he’s available and is a fit for the new-look Bills. Jordan can play with his hand in the dirt or stand up and rush the passer as an outside linebacker after playing “drop end” at Oregon. His versatility would be a welcome sign for defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, who plans on utilizing hybrid fronts next season.

9. New York Jets: Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
If the season were to start today, Rex Ryan’s edge rushers would be Garrett McIntyre and Antwan Barnes. So while receiver, running back and quarterback are all needs for the Jets, they can’t head into next season without addressing their need for pass rushers. And while there are concerns about whether or not he’ll be able to hold up versus the run because of his svelte frame, Mingo is an athletic freak with untapped potential.

10. Tennessee Titans: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
The consensus is that the Titans will select a guard at this spot, which makes sense given their need at right guard. But the middle of Tennessee’s defensive line hasn’t been a strength since Albert Haynesworth departed for Washington in 2009 and Lotulelei is versatile enough to play multiple positions. Tennessee added three versatile defensive linemen this offseason, which include Ropati Pitoitua, Moise Fokou and Sammie Hill. The Titans’ base is a 4-3 but they could use more 3-4 elements next season, making Lotulelei a nice fit.

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Pre-NFL Scouting Combine Observations

As the 2013 NFL scouting combine quickly approaches (it’ll kick off this Wednesday and run through the following Tuesday), here are some thoughts and observations on this year’s class.

1. Good luck if you’re a quarterback-desperate team.
It’s a bad year to be a team desperate for a franchise signal caller. Geno Smith is a good athlete but he progressively got worse as the 2012 college season wore on. Matt Barkley is closer to being a third-round prospect than the first overall selection, which is where some pundits had him slated at the start of the college season. Mike Glennon has NFL-caliber arm but was mistake prone at NC State. Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson and Zac Dysert are “sleepers,” although none project as first-year starters. One year after Andrew Luck, RGIII and Russell Wilson burst onto the NFL scene, we might not see a quarterback drafted in the first round this year.

2. It’s a deep OT class but who’s at the top?
Thanks to his combination of height, weight and agility, Texas A&M’s Luke Joeckel might be the safest pick in this year’s draft. But is he unquestionably the best offensive tackle prospect in this year’s class? How concerned were defensive ends about losing contain on quarterback Johnny Manziel that they didn’t challenge Joeckel from a pass-rushing standpoint? Considering the Aggies’ offense was predicated on getting the ball out of the quarterback’s hand as quickly as possible, did Joeckel benefit from A&M’s system? Now, it’s not like Central Michigan ran a pro-style offense in the MAC. But Eric Fisher has the size (6’7″, 305 pounds), frame (he might be able to add 20 pounds), and arm length (34 inches) to start at left tackle as a rookie. That’s not to suggest that Joeckel can’t, because the steady prospect does project as a first-year starter. But coming off a dominating season and an impressive week at the Senior Bowl, Fisher at least deserves mention as being the top tackle in this year’s draft.

3. Vaccaro is worth a top 10 selection.
The safety position is deep this year but Texas product Kenny Vaccaro is a stud and it would be a crime if he fell past the first 12 teams. He’s a ball-hawking centerfielder that is athletic enough to defend receivers in the slot and also come up in run support. He hits like a 218-pound MAC truck and is clearly the best all-around safety in this year’s class. Eric Reid, Matt Elam and T.J. McDonald are no less intriguing, but Vaccaro is the best of the bunch.

4. Dion Jordan is maddening.
Watch Oregon’s Dion Jordan for 20 minutes and you’ll spend half the time being mesmerized and the other half feeling unsatisfied. He’s far from being a polished product and someone will need to teach him how to bend the arc when rushing the passer. (Too often he’ll burst upfield only to be forced to work his way back to the quarterback, which creates clear passing windows and running lanes for the opposition.) But his length, burst and athleticism make him attractive to teams with creative defensive coordinators. After spending time as a drop end and as an outside linebacker while at Oregon, he has the versatility to play with his hand in the dirt or standing up in a 3-4. He’s raw, but he also might be a perfect fit for the Patriots, Jets, Cowboys, Saints or Falcons, teams that run hybrid looks.

5. Have we seen the best that Banks has to offer?
While at Mississippi State, cornerback Jonathan Banks spent a lot of time playing in a cover 3 zone. That allowed him to break on underneath passes and keep plays in front of him. But at 6’1″ and 185 pounds he’s cut from the same mold as players like Antonio Cromartie and Richard Sherman, who excel playing up at the line of scrimmage and using their length to disrupt routes. Behind only Dee Milliner of Alabama, Banks is widely considered one of the top cornerbacks in this year’s draft. But considering he has the ability to play in multiple coverages despite not being asked to in college, we may not have seen the best that he has to offer. He would appear to be a complete corner, one that can play in either a zone or in press man.

6. The best prospect in the draft that won’t go No. 1.
Alabama guard Chance Warmack is arguably the best prospect in this year’s draft but he won’t be selected with the top overall pick. In fact, he might slide out of the top 10 altogether. Guards usually aren’t selected within the first 10 picks because they’re simply not valued that high. Warmack might wind up being the exception, although the odds suggest otherwise. Teams know that they can find starting guards in rounds three through four and despite Warmack being an exceptional prospect, he’s still likely to fall into the teens.

7. How quickly things can change.
Heading into the 2012 college season, Ohio State’s Jonathan Hawkins was hands down the best defensive tackle prospect in the nation. Now he might not even be the third-best prospect at his position. He has the athleticism and power to consistently control the line of scrimmage but he often disappeared during games and his motor ran hot and cold. In September he was chasing down mobile quarterback Zach Maynard (Cal) from the backside, but by November he was merely average on a week-to-week basis. Star Lotulelei, Sharrif Floyd and Sheldon Richardson are more intriguing defensive tackle prospects at this point and speaking of Floyd, it wouldn’t be an upset if he were selected in the top 10. He’s the perfect fit as a three-technique in a 4-3, but he also has experience playing outside in a five-technique. He was one of the more disruptive defensive tackles in the nation last year and is built like a tank.

8. As usual, teams will be playing Russian Roulette when it comes to pass rushers.
Due to his combination of length and burst of the edge, Texas A&M defensive end Damontre Moore gave offensive tackles fits last year. But he’ll need to improve his technique and learn how to use his hands more while rushing the passer at the next level. Meanwhile, Bjoern Werner of Florida State isn’t as scheme versatile as Moore, but he’s quick off the line and uses his hands well to create separation. He’s drawn comparisons to Chris Long, although his motor also ran hot and cold at Florida State. BYU’s Ezekiel Ansah might be the most polarizing prospect in this year’s draft, as some pundits believe he has the potential to be the best player in this year’s class while others think he’s overrated. The former track athlete has only played football for three years but his technique has improved nearly every season. If a team shows patience with him, he might become a key starter in three years. But considering teams now expect a quick return on their investment, it’ll be interesting to see if Ansah can develop under pressure. This is a deep class for pass rushers but as usual, finding the right fit will be a risky proposition.

9. Teams might want to wait on a linebacker.
The linebackers projected to go in the first round have some serious baggage. Jarvis Jones is a hell of a pass rusher but is he destined to be a situational player? (He also has durability issues.) LSU’s Barkevious Mingo is a freak athletically but wasn’t a productive player despite his intriguing skill set. One could make the argument that Alabama exposed Manti Te’o in the national championship game and, well, nobody has forgotten about his relationship “issues.” His speed and athleticism not withstanding, Alec Ogletree was suspended in 2012 for violating Georgia’s substance abuse policy and he recently was arrested for DUI. In terms of risk, teams in need of linebacker help might want to wait until the middle rounds where Khaseem Greene, Zaviar Gooden and Nico Johnson could be had.

10. Cordarrelle Patterson is dynamic.
It’s hard not to be a fan of Tennessee wideout Cordarrelle Patterson. For being 6’3″ and 205 pounds he moves like a 5-10 scatback. Tennessee lined him up as a receiver as well as a kick returner, and also gave him the ball on end-arounds. With all due respect to Cal’s Keenan Allen, Patterson is the best receiving prospect in this year’s draft and it’s not even close. It’s not often that you see a receiver that is as dynamic outside the numbers as he is between the hashes, but Patterson has that sort of talent.

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