Sporting News draft analyst Russ Lande writes that Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore is in danger of being undrafted following a poor week in Mobile for the Senior Bowl.

Coming to Mobile, Moore needed to really step up, but things could not have gone much worse for him. Not only did he measure under 6 feet, but he showed below-average arm strength and lacked accuracy on passes longer than 10 yards. He did not show the arm strength to make all the NFL throws with good velocity and had a long delivery and release, which made it easier for defenders to break, close and make plays on his passes. Moore will have to be amazing at the Combine and his pro day if he hopes to get drafted.

This isn’t all that surprising of a report. Moore isn’t the type of quarterback who will force defenses to cover the entire field because his arm strength is limited. His lack of size also becomes a problem when a defense is able to create pressure from the interior and push the pocket into his face. He simply has a lack of physical skills that cannot be overcome, even by a great combine or Pro Day performance.

But that doesn’t mean that Moore won’t prove to be a quality backup or provide depth at the next level. He’s very accurate with the football, has good pocket awareness and he’s able to decipher information quickly. Thus, he shouldn’t be discouraged if he isn’t drafted because he does have a future in the NFL if he gets in the right system.

I woke up today with an extra spring in my step because I knew it was the first Saturday of the 2011 college football season. But what really got me going was knowing I would once again be providing quality fade material for bettors around the world.

It’s about people helping people, folks.

No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 4 LSU, 8:00PM ET
The last time Jarrett Lee opened a season as a starting quarterback was in 2006…for Brenham High School. LSU was going to have uncertainty at the quarterback position regardless of whether or not Lee or Jordan Jefferson was named the starter. But where the problem comes in is that Jefferson was assumed to be the starter for months. Now, just weeks before the season, they switch to Lee because of Jefferson’s off-field issues. It’s usually unwise to go against the SEC in a non-conference game but I’m not that bright so I’ll assume the risk. I think LSU’s outstanding defense will tire late in the second half after trying to keep up with Darron Thomas and LaMichael James for most of the game. The Tigers’ D figures to be on the field an awful lot tonight.
THE PICK: OREGON -3

No. 7 Boise State vs. No. 22 Georgia
All the talk in this one has revolved around Aaron Murray but I expect Kellen Moore to once again play mistake free. He has all new weapons this year but the Broncos’ offense rarely misses a beat from season to season. Never go against Boise State in their opener or in their bowl game. These types of games might as well be their freaking Super Bowl…
THE PICK: BOISE STATE -3

Minnesota @ USC, 3:30PM ET
I like the Jerry Kill hiring for Minnesota, although Tim Brewster didn’t leave him with a very stocked cupboard. We’ll see if his decision to shift MarQueis Gray from receiver to quarterback pans out but either way, I think Minnesota hangs with USC for a second straight year. The Golden Gophers are 5-1 against the spread in their last six road games and 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog. The Trojans, meanwhile, are 1-5 against the number in their last six home games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite.
THE PICK: MINNESOTA +24

San Jose State @ No. 6 Stanford, 5:00PM ET
Stanford has a ton of question marks heading into the season, specifically at receiver and along the offensive line. They also lost three players from its front seven on defense, although with Andrew Luck, Stepfan Taylor and a solid secondary, the Tree shouldn’t skip a beat from last season. Stanford is 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games. On the other side, the Spartans are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus the Pac-12 and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games.
THE PICK: STANFORD -30

Everyone seems to be hyper-cautious these days, so Boise State is holding back three players from tomorrow night’s showdown with Georgia at the Georgia Dome.

The Broncos announced in a brief statement Friday that senior safety Cedric Febis, sophomore defensive tackle Ricky Tjong-a-Tjoe and sophomore wide receiver Geraldo Boldewijn had not accompanied the team to Atlanta.

“The three are being held out of the game due to a review of their NCAA eligibility,” the statement read. “The review is not academic or violation of team rules.”

The three players all have a few noteworthy things in common. The first is that all three are originally from Amsterdam, the Netherlands, where they each played for local football club teams before coming to the U.S. All three played for prep high schools in Boise before joining the Broncos.

The second is that all three are expected to be major contributors for the Broncos this season. A fifth-year senior, Febis was in line to earn a starting safety position following the graduation of Jeron Johnson. He is likely to be replaced by redshirt freshman Jeremy Ioane.

The spread has moved from Boise State by 3.5 to Boise by 3.

ESPN Insider also has a great article about how Aaron Murray is as good as Kellen Moore. One thing to keep in mind is that Murray will be behind a veteran offensive line and Moore will be playing behind three new starters. I remember Mel Kiper making the point that the experience of the offensive line was one of the best predictors of success for a college football team. This should be a great game but I think Georgia might pull this one out.

College kickers are about as reliable as cell phone service in the mountains.

They’re just as likely to make a 55-yarder as they are to miss a PAT. And unfortunately for Boise State, kicker Kyle Brotzman fell into the latter category Friday night in Nevada.

Everyone knows the situation for Boise. Because of the conference the Broncos play in, they have to win out to have a shot to play in the BCS title game. And even then, they have to beat the one or two top ranked teams on their schedule, then hope those opponents go on to do great things the rest of the year, then hope hell freezes over, then hope McDonalds comes out with the McRib sandwich at the exact right time, then pray that their auto mechanics don’t try to screw them over when they go in for a simple oil change.

In other words: They have to be perfect in order to hope to play for a national title. Then they have to be lucky.

In 2010, they couldn’t be perfect. With the game tied 31-31 with 13 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter on Friday night, Kellen Moore heaved a beautifully timed deep pass to Titus Young, who somehow got behind Nevada’s defense and made a spectacular catch for a 53-yard gain. With one second left, the Broncos used their final time out and sent kicker Kyle Brotzman up for a cheap shot field goal to win. But he pushed the short kick right and Nevada had new life.

In overtime, Moore once again led the Broncos into field goal range and again, Brotzman missed – this time from 29 yards out. The Wolf Pack then drove into field goal range for Anthony Martinez and, like adding salt in the wounds of Boise, he converted a 34-yarder that couldn’t have been more down the middle.

Game.

With the loss, Boise can’t even claim to be WAC champions in 2010, although not that that matters. If they can’t play for a national championship, then who cares about the conference? Go ahead, Nevada – take the damn thing. The Broncos had their sights on a much bigger prize.

Of course, while Brotzman will play the goat, the one thing that cannot be overlooked is how Nevada was only the second team all year (Virginia Tech being the first) to challenge Boise in the second half. The Broncos had built a 24-7 lead at halftime, then their offense went completely stagnant until five minutes left in the fourth when Doug Martin took a screen pass 79 yards for a touchdown to give Boise a brief 31-24 lead. Other than that, they were completely shutdown by a motivated Wolf Pack defense.

Speaking of defense, Boise’s was completely worn down in the second half, which is something they didn’t experience all year. Usually by the fourth quarter their starters are standing on the sidelines watching their backups play because they’re up by three touchdowns. But on Friday night, they weren’t only in the thick of it, they were also being run over by the combination of Colin Kaepernick and Vai Taua. The senior duo put the game on their shoulders and led the Wolf Pack to greatness. It was almost surgical what they were doing to Boise’s defense in the second half.

That said, Brotzman has to make one of those kicks. Maybe Nevada goes on to score a touchdown in overtime and they win anyway, but if Brotzman hits that chip shot at the end of the fourth, Boise escapes with a close call instead of disaster. Maybe they don’t play for a national title, but at least they’re still in the discussion.

Not anymore.

Boise State might have well just won the Super Bowl.

Thanks to a Charmin extra soft schedule every year, when the Broncos play a team from a BCS conference they have to make it count. A loss guarantees that they won’t be playing for a national title, while a win essentially sets them up to run the table the rest of the season.

On Monday night, their game with No. 10 Virginia Tech lived up to the hype. Boise led 17-0 after one quarter, but VA Tech erased the deficit and then went up by one point after Ryan Williams scored on a one-yard touchdown run midway through the third quarter. From that point on, the lead changed three more times before the Broncos seized a 33-30 victory when Kellen Moore found Austin Pettis on a 13-yard touchdown pass with only 1:09 remaining on the clock.

And what a final drive that Moore orchestrated to win the game. He led the Broncos on a five-play, 56-yard jaunt that took just 38 seconds to complete. He was 4-for-5 passing on the drive for 43 yards, which included the 13-yard strike to Pettis.

Moore once again proved that he has ice water running through his veins. Of course he had to, because VA Tech quarterback Tyrod Taylor played out of his mind and almost willed the Hokies to victory himself. He was 15-for-22 on the night for 186 yards passing, two passing touchdowns and 73 yards rushing on 16 carries. He also scrambled for 11 yards on a broken play were he slipped out of the grasp of a Boise defender, kept his knee off the ground and then ran for a first down.

Houdini couldn’t have pulled the play off.

But back to Boise State. I laugh when people comment about how overrated this team is. I don’t understand how a team that went 14-0 last year and had 20 starters coming back could be overrated. Some get too caught up with the big school/little school aspect of college football and they push aside experience, coaching and fundamentals. I’m not saying that Boise deserves to go to a national championship just for beating one quality opponent a year. But time and time again they prove their mettle in big games.

The bottom line is that Boise State is a damn good football team, VA Tech is going to be tough to beat in the ACC, that was a freaking thrilling way to end Week 1 of the 2010 college football season and the Broncos’ season has been saved.

One of the more intriguing matchups of the 2009-2010 bowl season takes place in Glendale, Arizona when No. 4 TCU takes on No. 6 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl on January 4. As part of our 2010 BCS Bowl Preview, here are five things to watch for in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl.

1. The most controversial matchup of the bowl season
The TCU-Boise State matchup represents everything that’s wrong with the current BCS system. Instead of these two teams having the opportunity to prove themselves against BCS conference teams, the Horned Frogs and Broncos will play each other…again. These same two teams squared off last year in the Poinsettia Bowl and while it was a tightly contested game, true college fans would rather see how TCU and Boise would fair against a program like Florida or Georgia Tech. Instead, neither team will be able to prove much, which is exactly how the BCS wants it. Nevertheless, this is an exciting matchup that comes fully stocked with plenty of intrigue and drama associated with the game.

2. TCU’s No. 1 defense vs. Boise’s No. 1 scoring offense
It doesn’t get any better then when the No. 1 defense in the country gets to take on the No. 1 scoring offense. Along with being first in the nation in total defense, the Horned Frogs have the sixth best scoring defense, the third best run defense and the fourth best pass defense. Thanks to Jerry Hughes, Daryl Washington, Tank Carder and a host of others, TCU arguably has the fastest and most aggressive defense in the nation. But don’t expect the Broncos to cower to the Frogs’ dominant defense. Led by quarterback Kellen Moore, Boise ranks first in scoring, 20th in rushing and 30th in passing. They average over 44 points per game, are No. 1 in sacks allowed and 8th in total offense. But if there was one thing they struggle with, it’s red zone efficiency. Thanks to their spread offense, Boise can score quickly with big plays. But the closer they get to the end zone, the harder it becomes for them to score because they lack a power running game. Can Boise improve in that area in order to beat TCU?

3. Will the level of competition play a factor in this game?
TCU was a juggernaut this season, racking up victories against ranked conference foes BYU and Utah by a combined 58 points, as well as ACC Atlantic Division champion Clemson on the road. Meanwhile, Boise beat Oregon in the first game of the year, but didn’t face a Top 25 team the rest of the season. Despite playing a relatively easy WAC schedule, three of the Broncos’ wins came by 11 points or less as they struggled to put teams away. Considering the level of competition the Frogs played compared to the Broncos, did Boise get enough of a test during the season to get them ready to take on TCU in a BCS bowl?

4. Can TCU get to Moore?
TCU ranks 21st in the nation with 2.67 sacks per game, but it’ll face an opponent on January 4 that has only allowed five sacks all season. Five! Moore, the nation’s top-rated passer, is outstanding at reading the defense and getting the ball out of his hand quickly. If the Frogs want to have any success disrupting the Broncos’ passing game, they’ll have to disguise their looks and force Moore to hang onto the ball. Can Jerry Hughes continue to wreck havoc on opposing quarterbacks or will Boise’s O-line neutralize TCU’s pass-rush and keep Moore upright?

5. Can Boise’s defense slow down TCU’s high-powered offense?
The Horned Frogs get plenty of well-deserved attention for their defense, but their offense has been equally impressive this season. Thanks to a backfield comprised of quarterback Andy Dalton and a trio of running backs in Joseph Turner, Matthew Tucker and Ed Wesley, TCU ranks fourth in total offense and scoring, fifth in rushing and 67th in passing. Dalton might find it difficult to pass on Boise’s 13th ranked pass defense, but the Broncos are allowing over 125 rushing yards per game this season, which means TCU might be able to control this game on the ground from the onset. Chris Petersen certainly has his work cut out for him trying to game plan on both sides of the ball.

2010 Fiesta Bowl Game Information
Matchup: Boise State (13-0) vs. TCU (12-0)
Kickoff: 8:00PM ET, January 4
TV: FOX
Odds: TCU -7

Talk smack about the 2010 Fiesta Bowl.

In one of the more anticipated matchups of the 2009-2010 bowl season, the Boise State Broncos will take on the TCU Horned Frogs in the Fiesta Bowl this year. In order to get you ready for a game, here’s a quick glance at the matchup, key stats and more.

2010 Fiesta Bowl Game Information
Matchup: Boise State vs. TCU
Venue: University of Phoenix Stadium
Kickoff: 8PM ET
TV: FOX
Odds: TCU –7

Key Stats:
The Horned Frogs come into this game as one of the more accomplished teams in college football this season. Led by quarterback Andy Dalton, TCU ranks fourth in total offense, fourth in scoring offense and fifth in rushing offense. The Horned Frogs also have the top defense in the nation, rank third in run defense and third in pass defense. As if they don’t dominate enough statistical categories, the Frogs also have the best kickoff return unit in the country.

Of course, Boise State is certainly no push over when it comes to rankings this season. The Broncos have the eighth best offense in the nation and rank No. 1 in scoring while averaging over 44 points a game. They’re balanced attack is led by quarterback Kellen Moore and running back Jeremy Avery, who have paved the way for the 20th best rushing and 30th best passing offense in college football. Defensively, Boise ranks 13th in total defense, 40th against the run and 13th in pass defense. The Broncos have also allowed the fewest sacks of any team in college football this season.

The Bottom Line:
This is the most controversial matchup of the bowl season considering both of these teams would rather play BCS opponents in order to prove themselves. Plus, they already met in the Poinsettia Bowl last year, so this is a matchup college football fans have already seen. That said, this could also turn out to be the best bowl game of the year outside of the national title game. Will Moore lead Boise State to an upset win, or will TCU’s No. 1 ranked defense put the clamps down on the Broncos’ potent offense again this year?

Let the smack talk begin: