- It’s ironic really. Three weeks ago every NFL talking head said that if the Packers could get past the Lions in Detroit and the Giants in New York that they’d probably go undefeated. And after Green Bay mopped the floor with Oakland last Sunday, it was almost a foregone conclusion that the Pack would finish 16-0. Then the Chiefs, led by a chewed up and spit out Kyle Orton, go out and pull off the upset of the year by knocking off Green Bay, 19-14. Everyone will analyze this game to death but there’s not much to dissect. The strength of Kansas City, its defense, once again stepped up and played incredibly well. Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, did not as the usually explosive Green Bay offense fizzled for the first time all year. Romeo Crennel didn’t pan out as a head coach but there’s no doubt the man knows how to run a defense. He put together a scheme today that will be studied, picked apart and emulated by every defensive coordinator that may face the Packers down the road. To hold Rodgers and Green Bay to just 14 points is truly remarkable.

- When you think about it, it makes more sense that an inferior team like the Chiefs were the ones to knock off the Packers instead of a playoff contender like the Lions or Giants. The Packers will always see Detroit or New York coming, so theoretically they should play their best football. A team like Kansas City, however, has a better chance of sneaking up on Green Bay (again, theoretically). Still, the Chiefs have nothing offensively so for them to pull off an upset like this was almost flabbergasting.

- The talk this week leading up to the Patriots’ clash with the Broncos was how Tim Tebow needed to step up in order to match Tom Brady. But in the end, Brady essentially made Tebow a non-factor by craving up a Denver defense that has the biggest reason for the Broncos’ success these past six weeks. One of the many things that make Brady so great is that he usually doesn’t force his hand when he doesn’t need to. For example, with Deion Branch out with an injury and Wes Welker and Rob Gronkwski drawing double teams, Brady simply keyed on Aaron Hernandez, who shredded the Broncos for 129 yards on nine catches. Even though New England’s defense was shaky at times (especially in the first quarter), the Pats proved how difficult it’ll be for Denver to match up with the elite teams in the AFC come playoff time.

- There’s no reason to devote 150 words to how the Saints beat the Vikings today in Minnesota. The Vikings’ secondary resembles a revolving door to the end zone, so it wasn’t surprising to see Drew Brees throw for 700 yards and 19 touchdowns versus a bad Minnesota defense. But it must be a little unnerving to fellow NFC contenders that the Saints finally looked good on the road. They haven’t played well away from the Superdome this season and quite frankly, they’ve developed a reputation of being more conservative on the road than at home. But today they went out and made it look easy. With the Packers falling for the first time all season, maybe the power structure in the NFC has shifted ever so slightly in New Orleans’ favor. If you were to pick one team and one team only to beat Green Bay, it has to be the Saints, who are the only NFC team that can match up with Green Bay in a shootout.

- If I’m a team like the Falcons or Lions, I’m praying that the Giants make it into the playoffs. Because right now they’re about as dangerous as a roll of Tollhouse cookie batter. In the last six weeks the Giants have wilted against good competition (San Francisco, New Orleans and Green Bay) and floundered against inferior division rivals (Philadelphia and Washington). The only reason they’re still alive in the NFC East is because the Cowboys crap themselves whenever they’ve expected to rise to the challenge and make a stand. As I noted in my predictions piece this week, I expected Washington to hang with the Giants. But I even wrote that I didn’t expect the Skins to win. Instead, they absolutely dominated the Giants from the opening kickoff and somehow managed to sweep New York for the first time since 1999. Given how Dallas had already won, how first place was on the line in the division, and how they were at home, it was inexcusable for the Giants to lose to the Skins. But why be shocked given how poorly New York has played the past month and a half? We should be long past expecting this team to dominate an opponent just because it’s better on paper, especially considering how the Giants have played down to their competition all season long.

- Between the Jets, Titans and Bengals, I don’t know which team I want to see in the postseason less. The Jets were absolutely manhandled by the Eagles from start to finish in Philadelphia, the Titans couldn’t muster more than 13 points in a loss to the previously-winless Colts, and the Bengals were in a 6-6 deadlock with the powerhouse Rams before finally shaking loose in the second half. At this point the NFL should just give the No. 3 seed in the AFC a bye and save itself the embarrassment of a Mark Sanchez v. T.J. Yates battle royale.

- I shudder to think how good the Detroit Lions could be if they had even an ounce of discipline and/or composure. As they showed today in Oakland, the Matthew Stafford-Calvin Johnson connection is electrifying, the front four will give most offensive line fits and the linebacker corps continues to overachieve. That was a great come-from-behind win for Jim Schwartz’s squad but this is a team that lacks the fundamentals (see tackling and not committing stupid penalties). Still, at 9-5 the Lions look like a lock for one of the two Wild Card spots in the NFC and after a decade of miserable football, it’s all smiles right now in Detroit…

- …of course, the Raiders really handed the Lions that game today. Had Oakland stuck with Michael Bush and the running game instead of getting cute with shotgun formations late in the fourth quarter, the Raiders probably win today and make things interesting again in the AFC West. (It also didn’t help that Carson Palmer missed a wide open Chaz Schilens on a third-and-three that could have sealed the game for Oakland.) For all intents and purposes Hue Jackson has done a great job for the Raiders this season, especially considering all the injuries Oakland has suffered through. But he could have managed the fourth quarter better today.

- The Texans were due for a game like they had today against the Panthers. They deserve all the credit in the world for persevering through injury after injury after injury, but T.J. Yates is their starting quarterback. At some point he was going to turn in an ugly performance and he certainly did today. Even with Arian Foster and that powerful rushing attack, it was only a matter of time that the defense would falter and Yates would stumble trying to make plays. That said, seeing as how they’re already in the playoffs this loss will actually serve Yates and the Texans well in the end. It’ll be a good learning experience for the rookie.

- Why again did the Bears not reach out to Donovan McNabb a few weeks ago? Because Mike Martz’s offense is too complicated to learn in a short period of time? That makes sense. Far be it for me to question Jerry Angelo but the odds were rather high that Hanie would struggle as a full-time starter. I would have rather given McNabb a shot to learn a scaled back version of Martz’s offense than allow Hanie to piss away a potential Wild Card spot. Granted, McNabb has shown nothing in two years that would make you think he could have saved Chicago’s season but at least with him there was a chance to catch lightning in a bottle.

- The Seahawks have been pretty fun to watch these past few weeks. Disagree with me and I’ll remind you that they had a fat guy score a touchdown today. Fat guy + touchdown = fun. It’s science.

- I would hate to play the Panthers if I were a team fighting for a playoff berth right now. They pulled off a “fumblerooski” with Richie Brockel in their 28-13 win over the Texans today. There’s no telling what else they’re capable of.

- Next Monday night in New Orleans is going to be f.u.n. – fun. The Falcons have finally found some consistency on offense and if they’re firing on all cylinders out of their no-huddle attack, they can hang with the Saints. New Orleans has been unstoppable at home this year but if the Falcons can get Brent Grimes (knee) and Kelvin Hayden (toe) back from injuries then the Atlanta defense is capable of slowing Brees and Co. down. The defense has quietly been the strength of the Falcons team this season.

- Hello, George Wilson? Yes, this is the grounds crew at Ralph Wilson Stadium. One of our employees retrieved your jockstrap following today’s game. We went back and watched the film and we can pinpoint the moment you lost it. Do you remember when Reggie Bush did that spin move on you in the second quarter? Right, well he spun you right out of them. You can come pick it up at lost and found at your earliest convenience.

- I would love to be a fly on the wall whenever Buffalo’s front office gets together to watch Ryan Fitzpatrick play. There must be a ton of, “Dear God what…were…we…thinking!” after they handed him that seven-year, $62 million contract back in late October. Dude has been brutal ever since. Don’t be fooled by his stat line (31-of-47, 316 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs) from today’s loss to the Dolphins. He was awful, posting his two touchdowns and the majority of his yards when the game was pretty much out of reach in the fourth quarter.

Four odds of note:

Colts –20.5 @ Patriots, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
I about fell over when I first saw the opening line for this game, which was actually New England –21. But the spread makes sense. First of all, the Colts haven’t covered in seven straight weeks so oddsmakers have to push the envelope to see what price bettors will be willing to pay in order to keep fading Indy. Secondly, New England is just two weeks removed from covering a 17-point spread against the Chiefs on Monday Night Football, so oddsmakers realize that bettors are at least willing to lay that number when it comes to wagering on the Pats. But 20.5? For a NFL game? Dear, Barbara.

Falcons –1.5 @ Texans, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
There’s an unwritten rule when it comes to wagering: If it looks too good to be true, it probably is. The Texans are starting T.J. Yates at quarterback against a Falcons team that has won two straight games and is chasing down a playoff berth in the NFC. Why wouldn’t you lay the 1.5 points on Atlanta? All they have to do is win, basically. That said, the Texans knew as soon as Matt Schaub went down for the season that no matter who was playing quarterback, their defense and running game would have to carry them. The Falcons have been inconsistent on offense all season and while their run defense has been stout, they will be tested by the Texans’ excellent rushing attack. Plus, Atlanta could be without two of its top three cornerbacks as Brent Grimes (knee) and Kelvin Hayden (toe) are both expected to miss this Sunday. Beware the trap.

Raiders +2.5 @ Dolphins, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
Speaking of traps, the 3-8 Dolphins are a 2.5-point favorite against the 7-4 Raiders who are battling the Broncos for the AFC West crown? Hello, Oakland and the points! Again, beware the bet that looks too good to be true. Miami’s defense has been a rock over the past couple of weeks and the Fish were one big play/stop away from beating the Cowboys last Thursday. Miami clearly hasn’t given up on the season despite its record and will probably enjoy playing the role of spoiler from here on out.

Chiefs +9 @ Bears, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
Who is going to lay nearly 10 points on a Caleb Hanie-led Chicago team after his performance last Sunday in Oakland? The Chiefs failed to cover as a 17-point underdog two weeks ago in New England but they nearly came from behind and beat the Steelers last Sunday night. I think there’s going to be plenty of Kansas City backers come Sunday, so it’ll be interesting to see if the line moves, and by how much, come Sunday. The Bears are much tougher at home than they are on the road, plus they have Matt Forte, Devin Hester and a (usually) stingy defense. But Hanie radically changes what Mike Martz wants to do on offense and it’s tough envisioning them covering a 9-point spread.

2011 NFL Week 13 Point Spreads

Thursday, December 1
Eagles –3 (44)
Seahawks +3

Sunday, December 4
Raiders +2.5 (43)
Dolphins –2.5

Falcons –1.5 (38.5)
Texans +1.5

Titans +1 (43.5)
Bills –1

Chiefs +9 (36.5)
Bears –9

Jets –3 (38)
Redskins +3

Bengals +6.5 (42)
Steelers –6.5

Broncos +1
Vikings –1

Panthers +3.5 (48)
Bucs –3.5

Colts +20.5 (49.5)
Patriots –20.5

Ravens –6.5 (37.5)
Browns +6.5

Cowboys –4.5 (45.5)
Cardinals +4.5

Packers –7 (53)
Giants +7

Rams +13 (37.5)
49ers –13

Lions +9 (54.5)
Saints –9

Monday, December 5
Chargers –1.5 (38.5)
Jaguars +1.5

Check out the most current NFL Football Betting odds.

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- Earlier this week the Broncos said that they’re not going to change their offense with Tim Tebow taking over at quarterback. Then on Sunday, they kept their game plan ultra-conservative and hardly called any screen passes or high-percentage throws to help build his confidence while being dominated for 56 minutes by a winless Miami team. Do they want the kid to fail? Are they trying to prove that they were right by not starting him over Kyle Orton? Are they trying to stick it to all of the fans that have basically begged the organization to play Tebow? Either way, I absolutely love what the former Gator did today. Despite his coaching staff’s unwillingness to put him in position to succeed, he found a way to pull off a miraculous victory with some help from his defense and kicker Matt Prater. It wasn’t hard to figure that he would score a couple of touchdowns and compile over 200 total yards. But the way he did it was marvelous. The Broncos did nothing until four minutes left in the fourth, when he basically willed them to victory. He’s too nice of a guy to say it, but that had to feel good to stick it up his critics’ asses for just one week.

- While Denver refused to change its offense in efforts to help Tebow, Minnesota did a nice job of using designed roll-outs and plays that maximized rookie Christian Ponder’s strengths at quarterback. The rookie will be seeing Charles Woodson (2 INTs) in his nightmares for a while, but he showed a lot of grit bouncing back in the fourth quarter to nearly lead the Vikings to an upset over the still-undefeated Packers. Ponder is clearly an upgrade over Donovan McNabb and his performance today was definitely something to build on. Green Bay’s defense has struggled all year but for Ponder to have Minnesota in position to win in the fourth quarter was something not a lot of people expected.

- Anyone who watched DeMarco Murray play at Oklahoma knew he was a versatile player with a bright future. He did everything for the Sooners in his time at OU and the Cowboys really got a steal last April when they selected him with the 71st overall pick in the third-round. Nobody envisioned him rushing for 253 yards (a Dallas single-game record) in one game, but it was only a matter of time before Murray turned heads. Granted, 91 of those yards came on one play and he did face a pathetic St. Louis run defense. But given all the issues the Cowboys have had at running back over the years, his feat today had to be refreshing for Jerry Jones and Co. Here’s hoping the 23-year-old back can avoid injuries and build off of this incredible performance.

- I made it clear in my predictions this week that I liked the Chiefs to at least cover the 3.5-point spread in Oakland. But 28-0 with two 50-yard pick-sixes? Yeah, no – didn’t see that coming. Suddenly Kansas City is only a game back of San Diego and Oakland in the win column. That’s quite a contrast to where the Chiefs were a month ago, when head coach Todd Haley was nearly fired for the team’s ugly 0-3 start.

AND YOU CALL YOURSELF A PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL TEAM…

- Carson Palmer’s three-interception performance today proved that the Raiders made the right decision by not starting him on Sunday. But Kyle Boller’s three-interception day also proved that the Raiders absolutely had to make that trade to acquire Palmer from Cincinnati. There’s no question that they gave up way too much for the 31-year-old with declining skills. But given the Chargers’ penchant for underachieving, the Raiders have to go for it this year. And Boller would have instantly taken them out of playoff contention if he became the full-time starter. The Chiefs are better than what they showed the first three weeks of the season but there’s no excuse for Oakland’s offense to be shut out at home.

- It’s hard not to appreciate how Jim Schwartz is trying to change the mentality in Detroit. The Lions have lost for a very long time and Schwartz is trying to change the entire attitude of the organization. But maybe it’s time for him to turn it down a notch. Last week he got into a scuffle with another head coach and today a group of his players had to be separated from some of the Atlanta players before the game. I don’t know which team started it, but the Falcons have a knack for starting slow on the road so why rile them up? The Lions are a good team but they’ve really showed their inexperience the past two weeks, which includes Schwartz. After their perfect 5-0 start, they’ve now lost two straight games and Matthew Stafford is hurt again. It’ll be interesting to see how this team handles adversity under their fiery coach.

- If the Colts were to play Oklahoma State next Saturday in Stillwater, I wouldn’t be shocked if Indy was an underdog. And I wouldn’t hesitate to lay the points on the Cowboys either. Sunday night’s debacle in New Orleans was just another example among a million of examples for why Peyton Manning is so important to the Colts.

- I wasn’t at LP Field today but I heard on the radio that fans in Tennessee were booing Chris Johnson. If that’s the case, I don’t blame them one bit. Two straight years Johnson demanded more money because he felt underpaid, which he was. I don’t bemoan him for wanting a contract that represented what he was worth as a player. That said, he got paid so now it’s time for him to start living up to said contract. It doesn’t look like he stayed in shape throughout his holdout and it has showed thus far. The Titans have a golden opportunity to make a playoff run when nobody expected they would. But they’re not going anywhere with Kenny Britt sidelined for the year and Johnson underachieving. If he wasn’t in shape at the start of the season because of his holdout, he better get shape and start helping his team. There’s no excuse for a player that good to only rush for 1.8 yards per carry.

- Tony Sparano isn’t solely at fault for the state of the Miami Dolphins. But someone has to be held accountable for not only today’s collapse against Denver, but the entire season up to this point. The Broncos couldn’t move the ball for 56 minutes and somehow the Dolphins finished the day still winless. If the players haven’t checked out already, they will soon. The organization needs to get some fresh blood in there and see if they can’t muster a few positive takeaways out of this season. I just don’t see how Sparano can hold onto his job for much longer.

- For one half today in East Rutherford, it looked like Norv Turner had finally figured out what was wrong with his offense. But after scoring 21 points against Rex Ryan’s defense, the Chargers were completely shut out in the second-half. Granted, the Jets have the best pass defense in the league but Philip Rivers hasn’t looked comfortable in the pocket all season. Now that he has his full compliment of weapons he should be better than he has been. Even in victory he hasn’t looked sharp.

- The Cardinals lost for the fifth straight time but they had to be encouraged by Kevin Kolb’s performance. He threw for 272 yards and two touchdowns, although he was also intercepted once. The Cardinals were going to have a hard time beating the Steelers even if Kolb was perfect, but at least he came out of their bye week and had himself a decent game.

“CHAMPIONSHIP”…

- Sixty-two points? That’s insane. What the Saints did tonight against the Colts was insane. This isn’t LSU versus Indiana – the Colts are a professional football team and New Orleans hung 62 points on them. I realize that Indianapolis will be selecting in the top 5 next April (if not the top 2), but what the Saints did on Sunday night was beyond impressive when you consider Sean Payton wasn’t even calling plays from the sidelines. He was up in the booth relaying calls to his offensive coordinator, who then relayed the plays to Drew Brees (who oh-by-the-way completed 31 of his 35 pass attempts with five touchdowns on the night). Despite all the communication hurdles the Saints still put 62 points on the board. Amazing.

- The Falcons are now 24-1 when Michael Turner carries the ball at least 21 times. That’s why a lot of talking heads in the media say that the Falcons “need to get back to doing what they do best,” which is running the ball with Turner and controlling the clock. Look, that approach is all well and good. Atlanta has proven it can make the playoffs by using Turner as the backbone of the offense. But how have they fared when they’ve gotten to the postseason? The Packers showed everyone last January that if the Falcons can’t beat teams through the air, they’re going to struggle in the playoffs, plain and simple. Outside of two interceptions, Matt Ryan played very well in Atlanta’s win over Detroit today and he bailed the Falcons out of several third-and-long situations. If Mike Mularkey ever decides to put his ego away and allow Ryan to run the no-huddle exclusively, then the Falcons could really start taking it to teams both on the ground and through the air. (Turner’s longest runs this season have all been out of the no-huddle, proving that the Falcons can run the ball out of that offense.) But until then, don’t expect this team to blow anyone out like the Packers, Patriots or Saints. They’re just not built that way under Mularkey. Having said all of that, the team’s win over Detroit today was huge. That was the Falcons first road win of the year, their first back-to-back wins and the first time they’re above .500. They now have two weeks to figure out the rest of their issues and try to make a playoff run in the second half.

- After Plaxico Burress made comments earlier this week indicating that once he and Mark Sanchez get on the same page the Jets’ offense will start rolling, I made some rather snarky remarks in my Week 7 preview. I basically poked fun at Burress for thinking that he and Sanchez’s lack of chemistry was the reason the Jets’ offense had been struggling. Then I laughed, and I laughed, and I laughed. Well you know what? Now nobody’s laughing after Burress caught three touchdown passes in New York’s impressive victory over San Diego. My apologizes, Plax. You see, I’m just not that bright.

- The Packers won again but this is the third-straight week where they looked shaky for an entire half. Three weeks ago the Falcons took a 14-0 lead in the first quarter and a 14-6 lead into halftime before Aaron Rodgers led Green Bay back in the second half. Last Sunday Rodgers had a perfect QB rating against the Rams in the first half before he and the Packers completely took their foot off the pedal in the second half. Then today in Minnesota, the Pack were trailing at halftime before rattling off 20 points in the third quarter and holding on for a win. For the most part, the defending Super Bowl champs have made 7-0 look pretty easy. But I wonder if these last three weeks are an indication that their first loss is on the way. At some point an opponent will make them pay for only playing one half.

- Keep holding off, Jerry Angelo. Every time Matt Forte plays like he did today you cost the Bears more money. Seeing how he’s your offense, he will get paid at some point. Might as well just give him a new deal and make everyone happy.

- Huge, huge win for the Texans today in Tennessee. HUGE. They needed a victory like that to help instill confidence that they can win without Andre Johnson and Mario Williams. Imagine if Houston got that kind of effort out of its running backs every week. (Arian Foster rushed for 115 yards and two scores while Ben Tate added 104 yards on 15 carries.)

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- The Giants and Eli Manning had the game I thought they would last week in Arizona. Manning threw three touchdown passes but he was also picked off three times as the Giants started slow and finished poorly. Of course, Eli wasn’t the only reason the G-Men dropped a game they simply had no business losing. Their defense couldn’t stop a Seattle offense that has suddenly started to hit their stride after staging a dramatic comeback in the second half last week against Atlanta. Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst and Marshawn Lynch tuned up New York’s defense for 424 total yards. What’s most remarkable about the Seahawks’ 36-25 win is that the Hawks fumbled twice in New York territory. This could have been an even bigger blow out.

- The Steelers winning a home game against the Titans hardly constitutes a “Didn’t see that coming” moment. That said, this was a Pittsburgh team that didn’t have Casey Hampton, James Harrison, Aaron Smith, Chris Kemoeatu, or a fully healthy Ben Roethlisberger. Considering how good Tennessee’s defense has been this season, it was rather surprising to see Big Ben (who threw five touchdown passes) and Pittsburgh bully the Titans for four quarters. It appears those claims about the Steelers being finished were greatly exaggerated.

- Much like the Steelers’ win over the Titans, it’s hardly surprising that the Raiders traveled to Houston and beat the Texans. This isn’t the same Oakland team that was pathetic four or five years ago. That said, Al Davis just passed away yesterday and the Raiders took on a solid Texans team that just bullied Pittsburgh a week ago. Nobody would have been surprised if the Raiders’ hearts weren’t in it and left Houston without a win. But they played hard for four quarters, shut down Arian Foster, and won a huge road game to get to 3-2 on the season. Granted, Matt Schaub did throw an inexcusable interception at the end of the game and the Texans were without Andre Johnson. But “Just win baby?” Absolutely.

AND YOU CALL YOURSELF A PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL TEAM…

- Hey Andy Reid, this is why you don’t hire your offensive line coach as your defensive coordinator. I realize that’s kind of harsh because it’s not like Juan Castillo is the only reason the Eagles are now 1-4 after losing today in Buffalo. (After all, it’s not Castillo’s fault that Michael Vick is careless with the football or can’t manage a clock near halftime.) But there’s no way the Eagles’ defense should be this bad. I don’t want to take anything away from Buffalo because its offense can score on anyone. But Reid’s decision to hire Castillo looks like a massive miscalculation. MASSIVE.

- Mark Sanchez has to raise the level of his play if the Jets are going to succeed this season. For the past two years the Jets have relied on their rushing game and defense to make the playoffs, where Sanchez has been very good. But this year has had a different feel to it for New York. The defense hasn’t been as good and the ground game has been non-existent. Thus, 166 yards against one of the lowest ranked defenses in the league just isn’t going to cut it. He was very good on the 85-yard drive in the second half to cut New England’s lead to 27-21, but that was the only time he looked sharp all day. If Sanchez doesn’t start playing as well in the regular season as he does in the postseason, the Jets won’t make the playoffs this year. That’s just the bottom line for Rex Ryan‘s struggling team, which has lost three in a row after starting the year 2-0.

- What in God’s name was Matt Schaub thinking on the Texans’ final play? He could have waltzed into the end zone from inside the Raiders’ 5-yard line but he gave the game away instead by throwing an interception to Michael Huff. Schaub is going to think about that pass all week.

- Nobody saw them being blown out 48-3 but the Bucs’ loss to the 49ers was hardly surprising. Tampa certainly had some built in excuses coming into Sunday’s action (i.e. a short week, a cross-country trip), but I don’t think the Bucs were as good as their 3-1 record indicated. Their offense lacks explosion, their run blocking hasn’t been good, and opponents can take advantage of their pass defense just like Alex Smith (three touchdowns) and San Francisco did today. The Bucs’ run defense apparently wasn’t up to snuff either, as Frank Gore rushed for 125 yards on 6.3 yards per carry. At 3-2 Tampa is still in good shape but I don’t think this was a loss that Raheem Morris can just chalk up to a bad day. The Bucs have issues that need to be corrected if they want to keep pace with the Saints in the NFC South.

- The Panthers deserve more praise than criticism for hanging with the Saints today, but what was Ron Rivera and his coaching staff thinking when they took a timeout with two seconds remaining in the first half? The Saints were trying frantically to get their field goal team on the field and Carolina saved them the trouble by calling a time out. Naturally, John Kasay made the kick to give New Orleans a 20-13 halftime lead in a game they eventually rallied to win by? You guessed it: Three points.

- Considering how many issues the Vikings have had in the second half of games this year, one would have thought Leslie Frazier would have kept his foot on the gas towards the conclusion of the first half today against Arizona. But instead of trying to increase their lead by pushing the ball up field, Frazier and the Vikings were content with a 28-3 lead. They were promptly booed by the home crowd, which chanted Christian Ponder’s name heading into the locker room. Only the Vikings could make fans uneasy with a sizable lead.

- Peter King speculated on “Football Night in America” that Mario Williams “probably” tore his pectoral muscle in the Texans’ loss to the Raiders on Sunday. That would be a massive blow to a team that lost its best offensive player a week ago when Andre Johnson hurt his hamstring against the Steelers. Suddenly the AFC South looks like a crapshoot.

“CHAMPIONSHIP”…

- All week I wrote about how the Bills’ loss to the Bengals last Sunday was an aberration. They got caught with their pants down but they obviously learned from it. The Eagles made a ton of mistakes today but let’s not take credit away from a Buffalo team that everyone completely overlooked coming into the season. It wasn’t hard to figure that Fred Jackson would have a big day against Philadelphia’s pathetic run defense and that he did, rushing for 111 yards with a couple of good-sized runs. I’ll be honest, part of me has been waiting for the Bills’ play to fall off but I’m over that notion. This Buffalo team isn’t going anywhere.

- Bill Belichick works in mysterious ways doesn’t he? For weeks the Patriots have kept the ball in the air against opponents while BenJarvus Green-Ellis has largely been an afterthought in the offense. In fact, Stevan Ridley was starting to garner some attention has a better option than Green-Ellis in the ground game. Yet with the Jets in town today, Green-Ellis rushes for a career-high 136 yards and two touchdowns as the Patriots defeated their AFC East rivals, 30-21. Granted, Tom Brady (24-of-33 for 321 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) and the passing game was still highly active but the game was clearly on Green-Ellis’ shoulders. This is one of the many reasons why Belichick is so good. He doesn’t forget about any of his weapons and if he sees a weakness that he can exploit, he attacks it. He also knows how to feed the hot hand and he doesn’t over think the game as it plays out. Some may disagree but he has the best mind in football in my eyes.

- It’s not like I’m drinking the Kool-Aid, but I’ve been really impressed with the Bengals. Yeah, beating the Jaguars and their rookie starting quarterback isn’t earth-shattering news. But who does Cincinnati have starting under center? Andy Dalton, a rookie quarterback, whose main playmaker is a rookie receiver in A.J. Green who has received less attention than Julio Jones and yet is producing week in and week out. The Bengals showed a lot of poise down 20-16 in the fourth quarter on Sunday and rallying to beat the Jaguars. Who would have thought that Cincinnati would be 3-2 with the mess of an offseason they had?

- Championship? Not quite, but the Chiefs do have a pulse after winning their second straight game. Matt Cassel was outstanding in Kansas City’s comeback over Indianapolis, completing 21-of-29 passes for 257 yards and four touchdowns. I don’t want to get carried away after one game but this is the type of performance out of Cassel that shows people that he can be a serviceable starter.

- There’s no need to overreact to his performance today because he’ll probably go back to his inconsistent ways next week, but Alex Smith was very efficient in the Niners’ 48-3 win over the Bucs. It was nice to see him react to the pressure instead of lo0king for it and then making mistakes. He kept his eyes downfield, didn’t stare down receivers and finally played with a sense of purpose. It helped that Tampa’s pass rush is weak and Frank Gore was gashing the Bucs on the ground, but let’s give credit were credit is due. Smith was very good.

- The Giants deserve to be ridiculed for their embarrassing loss to the Seahawks but Victor Cruz was nearly unstoppable today. He turned his 11 targets into eight receptions for 161 yards and one touchdown, and made one of the best catches I’ve ever seen. Just think, we may have never seen what this kid could do had the Giants not suffered as many injuries to their receiving corps. Not that I want to see anyone get hurt but Cruz has been really fun to watch the past couple weeks.

Not a great start last week but not bad either. I hit the Eagles and Bengals but the Colts never arrived in Houston and the Titans fell short in Jacksonville. I’ll try harder today…

Cardinals @ Redskins, 1:00PM ET
Cam Newton was incredible in his debut but Arizona’s defense was sofffffft. Now the Cardinals have to hop a flight cross-country to play a Redskins team that didn’t have to move after playing at home last week. While the situation is built like a house of cards, Rex Grossman played well last Sunday against the Giants and I think he’ll carry that confidence into today. The Cardinals are just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven road games and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog. The Redskins, meanwhile, are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games versus the NFC.
THE PICK: REDSKINS –4

Browns @ Colts, 1:00PM ET
Apparently I’m a glutton for punishment because I’m right back on the Colts this week after their brutal performance in Week 1. It just doesn’t sit right with me that Indy is a 1-point home underdog against a Browns team that got drubbed by the Bengals at home last Sunday. Kerry Collins looked like crap-o-la in Houston but he should have an easier time this Sunday against Cleveland. The underdog is 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams while the Browns are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games versus the AFC.
THE PICK: COLTS +1

Chiefs @ Lions, 1:00PM ET
I happen to think that the performances of these two teams last week wasn’t an aberration. I think the Chiefs can be that bad and I think the Lions can be that good. That said, oddsmakers are clearly playing into the public’s perception that Detroit is a playoff sleeper because the line is set way too high in this one. I don’t expect Kansas City to play as poorly as it did last week against the Bills, who clearly snuck up on an unprepared Chiefs squad. I like the Lions to win, but the Chiefs to the score within a touchdown.
THE PICK: CHIEFS +9

Eagles @ Falcons, 8:20PM ET
Don’t expect the Falcons to play as sloppy as they did last week in Chicago but I still don’t like them in any matchup with the Eagles. Philly has won eight of its last nine against Atlanta and you know Mikey Vick is going to be pumped up playing against his former team. The Falcons are extremely talented on both sides of the ball but they lack that killer attitude that great teams like the Patriots, Saints and Packers have exhibited. That’s why I think they’ll be in awe of Vick instead of trying to make his life miserable for three hours. Maybe I’ll be wrong and the Falcons will view this as a statement game but something is definitely off right now in Atlanta.
THE PICK: EAGLES –1.5

Last Week: 2-2
Season: 2-2

Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a complete list of NFL Week 1 odds.

After tonight there are no more predictions, no more projections and no more speculation. After tonight, the NFL season will have begun and it’s time to put the pre–season prognosticating to rest and let teams settle things on the field.

But for one last time before the games start counting for real, let’s examine what could potentially trip up contenders in both conferences. Below are 16 postseason contenders for the 2011 NFL season, along with 16 questions that revolve around concerns that that team has heading into the new year.

Patriots: What about the last line of defense?
The Patriots did a fantastic job this offseason addressing their need for more pass-rushers. But Bill Belichick may have created another weakness by leaving himself awfully thin at safety with the release of veterans Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders. Granted, Meriweather was less than impressive a year ago and Sanders has been injury prone throughout the years. For Meriweather, he often took bad angles to the ball last season and was caught out of position numerous times throughout the year. But in releasing both he and Sanders, Belichick is putting a lot of faith in Patrick Chung and 2010 rookie free agent Sergio Brown to man both safety positions. If Chung and Brown stay healthy and hold their own, then Belichick will once again look like a genius in his personnel decisions. If they falter, it doesn’t appear as though Belichick has left himself with a plan B.

Jets: Can Sanchez step up in the regular season?
If Mark Sanchez played as well in the regular season as he has in the postseason then maybe the Jets wouldn’t have to win playoff games on the road every year. Sanchez did take a step forward in his development last year but his consistency week-to-week remains an issue. This is a Jets team that could contend for a Super Bowl berth but not if Sanchez doesn’t continue to raise the level of his play. The goal for Rex Ryan and his team shouldn’t be the Super Bowl: it should be supplanting the Patriots in the AFC East first. Then they can set their sights a little higher.

Colts: How long will Peyton be out?
There’s no bigger question that needs to be answered for the Colts. With Manning they’ll once again be favored to win the AFC South. Without him they’ll probably sink to the bottom of the division. Kerry Collins may be able to keep this team afloat for a game or two, but without Manning the Colts will inevitably fall over a 16-game season. Hopefully for Indy’s sake Manning will return in a few weeks and more importantly, he’ll be close to 100-percent healthy. But there are reports that he’ll be out “a while” and if so, the next team on this list will have its shot to win the AFC South crown.

Texans: Is the defense really fixed?
Regular readers know that I fully believe this is the Texans’ year. I love the hiring of Wade Phillips, who has a long history of turning teams around in his first year as either head coach or defensive coordinator. This team also went a long way in shoring up a weakness with the signing of free agent cornerback Jonathan Joseph. But question still remain on that side of the ball. Is Mario Williams a linebacker? Can Kareem Jackson make strides in his second year? Will the safety position be a spot opponents can exploit? Arian Foster’s hamstring is a concern, as is whether or not Matt Schaub is the right man to get this team over the hump. But if the defense hasn’t been fixed then it won’t matter how much Foster or Schaub contribute because the Texans will fall short of expectations once again.

Steelers: Will the offensive line hold Pittsburgh back?
Once again the Steelers’ offensive line is a concern heading into the season. Granted, it was also a concern when they won the Super Bowl a couple of years ago and it was a concern last season when they lost to the Packers in the title game. Thanks to Dick LeBeau’s defense and the steady play of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, this team always finds a way to overcome its shortcomings. That said, it’s often harder to stay on top of the mountain than it is to climb it and if there’s one spot opponents can exploit, it’s the Steelers’ O-line. (One could argue cornerback is another weakness of Pittsburgh’s, but it’s not a bigger concern than the O-line.)

Ravens: Can they beat the Steelers?
The only time the Ravens beat the Steelers last year was when Ben Roethlisberger was suspended early in the season. Otherwise, Baltimore played its AFC North rivals close but it can’t seem to get over the hump. Just like the Jets in the AFC East when it comes to the Patriots, before the Ravens can even think about reaching the Super Bowl they need to beat the Steelers first.

Chargers: Can they start fast for once?
This isn’t your brother’s Chiefs and Raiders that the Chargers now have to deal with. Kansas City is defending AFC West champions and basically returns the same team it won with last year, while Oakland is steadily improving. It used to be that the Bolts could sleepwalk through their first-half schedule before winning 10-straight games to cruise into the playoffs. But now a slow start could be detrimental to their postseason goals. The Chargers need to start fast for a change because the Chiefs and Raiders aren’t pushovers anymore.

Chiefs: Can they win against a tougher schedule?
The Chiefs proved last year that they’re a better team than people expected, but they also had a manageable schedule. This year, they face the Patriots, Steelers, Bears, Jets and Packers in five straight weeks during the second half of the season and won’t sneak up on anyone after winning the AFC West. It’s time to see if Matt Cassel and Co. can raise their game now that opponents will see them coming.

Cowboys: Will the offensive line and cornerback positions hold up?
Rookie offensive tackle Tryon Smith and cornerback Michael Jenkins both hurt their knees earlier this week and may not play in the Cowboys’ opener versus the Jets on Sunday night. Making things worse, Terence Newman has already been ruled out with a groin injury so an already worrisome spot for Dallas (secondary) just became an even bigger concern. I envision a bounce back year for the ‘Boys, but not if the offensive line can’t keep Tony Romo upright and not if the secondary can’t matchup up with the Eagles, Packers, Saints and Falcons (four of the best offenses in the conference) in the NFC.

Eagles: Can Vick live up to the expectations?
In 2004, there were low expectations for the Falcons because Michael Vick was coming off a devastating leg injury that cost him most of his 2003 season. So naturally Vick led Atlanta to the NFC title game that year. In 2005 when expectations were high, Vick was ONE OF the reasons the Falcons didn’t even make the playoffs. In 2006 when observers were predicting a bounce back year for Atlanta, again Vick and the Falcons fell short of expectations. Last year when Kevin Kolb was supposed to be the starter and Vick a gimmick in Andy Reid’s offense, Vick took the Eagles to new heights. Now, led by Vick, the Eagles are considered Super Bowl contenders. My point is that when expectations are high, Vick often falls well short. Is he an exceptional athlete? No f’n doubt. Can he win? Yes. Can he win a NFC title game with everything on the line? I’m not so sure and quite frankly, I lean more towards “no” after the way he’s been talking about how no defense can contain him. Vick can get awfully complacent when he wants to be.

Packers: Can the Pack repeat?
There’s really no other question, is there? Not since the 2004 and 2005 Patriots has a team won back-to-back Super Bowls in the NFL. And not since the 1993/94 Cowboys has a NFC team won back-to-back titles. Just like the Saints in 2009, the Packers have a great opportunity to end the NFC’s long drought but it’s incredibly difficult to repeat. For whatever reason, things are always just a little bit off in that next year and usually, injuries are a concern. (Although injuries were a concern for the Packers last year and they still won, so maybe this will be the year the NFC finally repeats again.)

Bears: Will the O-line and receivers be their Achilles’ heel?
The Bears’ offensive line was a disaster in its first preseason game this season, allowing nine sacks against the Bills. But it got better over the course of the next two weeks and seems less of a concern heading into the season than it did at the start of camp. That said, it’ll be interesting to see how guys like J’Marcus Webb and Gabe Carimi fare when teams start to game plan to stop the Bears’ offense. The same can be said for Chicago’s receiver corps, which was highly unimpressive in preseason. How the Bears believe Roy Williams is a starter is behind me, but Jerry Angelo will reap what he sows there. I have a hunch we could see a repeat of Jay Cutler’s 2009 season when his sack and interception totals were both high. And just like in ‘09, it won’t be all his fault like it’s portrayed in the media.

Falcons: Can Ryan win a playoff game?
The Falcons have a couple of question marks heading into the season, mostly on the defensive side of the ball. But they pale in comparison to whether or not Matt Ryan can take that next step, which includes winning a postseason game. He’s 0-2 in the playoffs, which hardly makes him Peyton Manning before the latter won a Super Bowl in Indy. But at the same time, Ryan needs to be the reserve of Mark Sanchez in that he needs to be just as good in the postseason as he is in the regular season. The Falcons are expected to unshackle him this season, which means putting him more in the no huddle (an offense he’s excelled in since his rookie year) and allowing him to throw more vertically down field (something that he’s struggled to find consistency with). With so many weapons around him in the offense, it’s time for Ryan to emerge as one of the elite.

Saints: Will the linebackers be a weakness once again?
The Saints did a fantastic job bolstering their defensive line this offseason with the signings of Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers, which should help Jonathan Vilma do a better job against the run than he did a year ago. Vilma was often taken out of the play because his defensive tackles didn’t protect him. That said, he also needs more help from his ‘backer mates. It’s puzzling why the Saints still feel that Scott Shanle is an every-down player when he’s proven otherwise for years. They’re also taking a huge risk assuming Will Herring can play every down when he was regulated to nickel duties in Seattle last season. This is a Super Bowl-caliber team but where the Saints can be had is at linebacker.

Rams: Can the Rams overcome a tough first-half schedule?
From my piece last week on the Rams: Have you checked out the Rams’ schedule this year? It’s freaking brutal. They open up at home against everyone’s chic pick the Eagles before heading to New York to play the Giants in Week 2. They come back to St. Louis for two home games and while one of those contests is a Week 4 matchup with the Redskins, the other is a Week 3 tilt against the Ravens. After they come back from their BYE in Week 5, the Rams travel to Green Bay and Dallas before hosting the Saints in Week 8. So in six of their first seven games they play the entire NFC East, the defending Super Bowl champions, and the team that won it all in 2009 and might be poised to do it again in 2011. Thanks, schedule makers!

Cardinals: Can Kevin Kolb play?
With how brutal the Rams’ schedule is, the Cardinals can win the NFC West if Kolb resembles even an average NFL quarterback. Obviously Arizona has other concerns, just like every team in the division. But the Kolb acquisition can put this team back on top in the West if he can show a smattering of consistency from week-to-week. That said, nobody knows whether or not this guy can even play. He looked good at times in Philadelphia but blew his chance to be a full-time starter last season. Time will tell if he’ll make the difference or not in the desert.

Let me state again that Nick Wright BROKE THE STORY FIRST. I’m only repeating myself because Wright has spent most of today complaining about how others are giving credit to ESPN/Adam Schefter, so I figured I would make it clear that Wright BROKE THE STORY FIRST.

Moving on…Wright tweets:

What I’m hearing on Baldwin: “he’s as advertised. Diva, spoiled, doesn’t wanna listen. Can run a Go and a Slant, and doesn’t wanna work.”

Wright also writes that head coach Todd Haley has embarrassed Baldwin a few times, “but hasn’t really gone off on him yet.” There’s some concern that the rookie could be out 6-8 weeks and is doubtful for Week 1 following his fight with Jones – this according to Wright, who cannot confirm the news but is only “passing it along.” (Did I mention that he broke the story first?)

None of this is surprising if you paid attention to the pre-draft reports on Baldwin, who was often criticized for his lack of work ethic and his immaturity. Following his junior season at PITT, he bashed quarterback Tino Sunseri and the Panthers’ coaching staff for his lack of growth as a player. (It’s always good to blame others for your shortcomings as a person.) He was also charged with disorderly conduct and harassment in 2009 after he allegedly groped a female student on a campus bus. He was eventually cleared of those charges, however.

Baldwin certainly has all the athletic ability to succeed, but his character flaws have apparently followed him to Kansas City. Thomas Jones is regarded as a good locker room guy, so the fact that Baldwin fought with him won’t endear him to his teammates. The kid hasn’t even run one route in a meaningful game yet and already it appears as though he may be headed for bustville.