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Offseason Movement: In a major effort to try and bolster their bullet riddled bullpen, the Mets signed top free agent closer Francisco Rodriguez, who saved a record 62-games last season for the Angels. The Mets also acquired reliever J.J. Putz, outfielder Jeremy Reed and RHP Sean Green in a three team swap with the Mariners and Indians. The club signed free agent starter Freddy Garcia, but after he gave up 15 runs in just seven innings this spring, they reassigned him to minor league camp. Livan Hernandez – yet another free agent signing – fared much better and will be the Mets’ fifth starter when the season opens. Casey Fossum, Alex Cora, Darren O’Day, Rocky Cherry, Connor Robertson and Cory Sullivan round out the rest of New York’s offseason additions.

Top Prospect: Wilmer Flores, SS
Outfield prospect Fernando Martinez also deserves mention here, but Flores is already showing potential at just 17 years old. Flores is light years away from the big leagues, but he’s already drawing comparisons to Miguel Cabrera in terms of his potential at such a young age. The Mets will likely move Flores along slowly and let him develop his skills. There’s absolutely no need to rush him, but he’ll get his opportunity to shine in the next couple of years.

The Big Question: Can the new faces in the bullpen come together?
The Mets blew 29 save opportunities last year, so to address that weakness they signed a closer in Francisco Rodriguez who set a record in saves last season with 62. Outside of his WHIP rising every season since 2002, K-Rod remains one of the best closers in the league and at only 27, he still has plenty of baseball ahead of him. Adding J.J. Putz via trade this offseason was also a solid move for this club, but the long-relief situation is a bit of an uncertainty considering the mixed bag of Pedro Feliciano, Sean Green, Brian Stokes (who was almost traded recently), Nelson Figueroa, Bobby Parnell and Darren O’Day. Parnell and O’Day have been good this spring, so the Mets’ bullpen appears to be ready for a major bounce back. But with so many new faces, it’s tough to assume that all of the club’s issues in the pen last year are fixed.

Outlook: The Mets fit in one of two categories in terms of their 2009 outlook. People either assume that they’re postseason bound after addressing their most glaring weakness (the bullpen), or they’re not fooled by all the offseason moves and therefore are urging the rest of the baseball world not to buy into the hype. I tend to fit into the former category and believe that this could be the Mets year to make some noise. They collapsed last year – bottom line. And there’s no way of knowing if they’ll do it again this year. But they completely overhauled the bullpen with quality arms like K-Rod, J.J. Putz and Sean Green, and still have one of the best lineups in the National League, headlined by Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and emerging youngster Daniel Murphy. It’s no secret that the starting rotation is a bit of a question mark after Johan Santana, but it’s solid nonetheless. Should anyone be surprised if the Mets fall apart again this year? No. But given their talent, nobody should be surprised if they make a run at the World Series either.

Projection: 1st NL East

NL MVP: David Wright, New York Mets—Am I playing homer? Yes. But this kid works really hard every off-season and consistently puts up big numbers, and he hasn’t even come close to showing his potential. This year Wright is going to show the world why the Mets have built their franchise around him, and he’s going to (finally) lead them to a World Series.

AL MVP: Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians—Last year, Sizemore had a full season low batting average of .268 but racked up career highs in home runs (33), RBI (90) and stolen bases (38). Last season Sizemore finished 10th in the AL MVP voting but like Wright, he is on the verge of something huge, and he’s going to lead the Indians to the playoffs.

NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants—I love a good short-guy-kicks-ass story, the kind where most scouts write someone off because of their size (5’10, 160 pounds), and then they go and prove everyone wrong except the team who drafted them. That’s Tim Lincecum, who won the NL Cy Young last season for the Giants, winning 18 of his team’s 72 wins, or ONE QUARTER of them. His stuff is absolutely sick, and at times just unhittable and he will coast to his second straight Cy Young.

AL Cy Young: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox—Last season, Dice-K went 18-3 but was largely overshadowed by Cliff Lee’s 22-3 masterpiece as well as by K-Rod’s record-breaking 62 saves. But this guy has taken over as the dominating shutdown starter in Boston after Josh Beckett battled inconsistency last year, and this year he’s going to roll to the Cy Young.

NL Rookie of the Year: Micah Hoffpauir, Chicago Cubs—Last season, during the second straight historic collapse by the Mets, Hoffpauir was Babe Ruth for one game, going 5 for 5 with two home runs and five RBI. That was his only multi-hit game, but you don’t just have a showing like that by accident.

AL Rookie of the Year: David Price, Tampa Bay Rays—Sure, the Rays optioned their young phenom to the minors recently, but don’t let that fool you. Once Price logs a few innings, he’ll be back in Tampa blowing hitters away the way he did in the ALCS against Boston last season. And he’ll find himself as the #2 or #3 starter before long.

NL Manager of the Year: Jerry Manuel, New York Mets—When Willie Randolph was let go in New York last season, the Mets were 34-35. After Manuel replaced him, the Mets went 55-38 the rest of the way. Okay, they choked again down the stretch, but this year it’s Jerry’s team from the start, and he’s going to show everyone that his no-nonsense and player-friendly approach can win lots of games, as well as championships. It doesn’t hurt that he has two lights-out closers (K-Rod, JJ Putz) anchoring his bullpen now.

AL Manager of the Year: Eric Wedge, Cleveland Indians—The Indians missed the playoffs last season after taking the eventual champion Red Sox to 7 games the year before. The Tribe plays well in odd numbered years as of late—going 93-69 in 2005 and 96-66 in 2007. This season, with the additions of Kerry Wood, Mark DeRosa and Carl Pavano, Cleveland is going to surprise a lot of folks.

NL Comeback Player of the Year: Eric Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks—Byrnes was way off his career averages in 2008, hitting a paltry .209 with 6 homers and 23 RBI. He has nowhere to go but up, and this season I have a feeling Byrnes’ numbers are going to match his intensity on the field.

AL Comeback Player of the Year: John Smoltz, Boston Red Sox—After season-ending shoulder surgery in June of 2008, the Braves finally let one of the cornerstones of their franchise go, as the free agent pitcher signed with the Sox. He won’t see the mound until June, but Smoltz threw in the bullpen this week and showed no signs of pain. He’s going to make the Braves sorry—really sorry.

1. Who will be the surprise team this year? Last year it was the Tampa Bay Rays, who not only won the ridiculously competitive AL East, but also beat the Red Sox in the ALCS to reach the World Series, which they eventually lost to the Phillies. In 2007, the Colorado Rockies won 21 of 22 games after September 17, including sweeping the Cubs and D-Backs in the playoffs before losing to Boston in the Fall Classic. In 2006 it was the Cardinals who squeaked into the postseason with an 83-78 record, ultimately winning it all. Who is going to do it this season? Or will it be a big-market, big-money World Series match up such as Yankees/Mets or Red Sox/Cubs? It’s almost impossible to say I told you so at this point to this type of question, but here are the teams I’m telling you to keep an eye on: Indians, A’s, Giants, Marlins.

2. How will the choking of recent seasons affect the Mets, Cubs and Angels? The Mets’ bullpen imploded two years in a row, and GM Omar Minaya went and picked up not one, but two lights-out closers in K-Rod and JJ Putz. Still, the Mets are not going to have an easy go of things in the NL East, and their lineup and starting rotation are bordering on suspect. The Cubs and Angels keep beating everyone up in the regular season only to flame out early in the playoffs. Do these two teams lack what it takes to win, or has the luck and clutch hitting of other teams been their demise? Honestly, you can’t keep talented teams like these three down for very long, and I expect all of them to be playing deep into October this time around.

3. Is Manny Ramirez going to play in 2009? Scott Boras keeps dangling his star client out there and keeps upping his asking price. Does this guy not want his commission? Yes, it’s downright irresponsible to try and rape MLB franchises in this economy, but Manny is the one guy in baseball who can shift the balance of power in a division with his insane offensive skills. I think eventually the Dodgers are going to re-sign Manny, but at what price and for how long? And before or after the season starts?

4. Who is going to win the AL East? You’ve got the mighty Yankees, who went out and bought another 10 or 15 wins by signing CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Mark Teixeira. You’ve got the Red Sox, who despite falling short last year against Tampa are still technically the team to beat in the division. And you’ve got the upstart Rays, who no one thought could keep up their winning ways for seven months and did just that. I just think the Sox are too talented and the Rays are going to drop to second or even third place in 2009, and I think the Yankees are going to make the playoffs but not win the division. Money just can’t buy team chemistry, ever.

5. Will Tim Lincecum be as brilliant in 2009 as he was in 2008? Or will his arm fall off? This kid, and he’s a 25 year old who looks like he’s 17, has some of the nastiest stuff in the majors and ran away with the NL Cy Young Award last year by going 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA and 265 strikeouts in 227 innings. You want perspective? The Giants only won 72 games last year, so Lincecum had a quarter of their wins. That’s just insane. But history shows that guys like this can’t keep it up long-term unless they’re named Clemens or Smoltz. I see another great season in 2009 but I’d temper expectations beyond that. And the Giants may just sneak into the playoffs in a less-than-stellar NL West this year.

Less than a month before pitchers and catchers report, here are some of the big names still available: Manny freaking Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Ken Griffey, Orlando Hudson, Frank Thomas, and to a lesser extent, Kevin Millar (20 homers last season) and Orlando Cabrera. To put this in perspective, the Astros signed pitcher Russ Ortiz to a minor league deal a few days ago, the Dodgers signed reliever Guillermo Mota, the Angels inked Darren Oliver for one year, and the White Sox brought back a Bartolo Colon who is on the downside of his career. Clearly, it’s a pitchers’ market this off-season, and it’s almost mind-boggling that Ramirez has gone almost three full months without being signed.

Part of the problem here is that the big spenders (ahem, New York teams) have blown their collective load on the likes of CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Mark Teixeira, Francisco Rodriguez, etc., leaving a team like the Dodgers the likely scenario for Man-Ram in 2009, which at the end of the day is probably best for both sides anyway. But some of those other guys are going to have trouble finding work, or they are going to take a recession-friendly deal from a team they wouldn’t have signed with otherwise. It’s already happened with Pat Burrell in Tampa and Jason Giambi with Oakland.

In other more recent news, the Red Sox avoided arbitration with Kevin Youkilis on Thursday, agreeing to terms on a four-year deal. And the Dodgers finally released beleaguered outfielder Andruw Jones, who the Braves are considering bringing back for the league minimum salary. The Braves are also mulling over whether to bring back injury-plagued LHP Tom Glavine for one more season.

We still have Manny Ramirez without a team, and the very real possibility that he could just stay with the Dodgers. Really, doesn’t that make the most sense for this guy’s, um, easygoing, personality and playing style? Meanwhile, the stakes for Mark Teixeira have been upped by none other than the Washington Nationals, who are believed to be offering the free agent slugger eight years at $20 million per. That sounds to me like agent Scott Boras trying to just be Scott Boras. We all know Tex is going to wind up in Boston, Baltimore, or back with the Angels.

And as if Cubs’ fans haven’t suffered through enough misery lately, GM Jim Hendry decided to pull the plug on the Jake Peavy trade. He just didn’t want to inherit as much salary as the Padres wanted him to, and he surely didn’t want to throw Mark DeRosa on a plane to San Diego as part of the deal. Now, the Angels have been mentioned as a team that might pursue Peavy, and you definitely can’t count the Yankees out either. Oh, and by the way, the Yankees have turned their attention to in-house “old reliable” Andy Pettitte now, and have not ruled Ben Sheets or Derek Lowe out yet. Wow.

Meanwhile, the Mets spent so much on closers that they literally had nothing left to go after Lowe. Instead, GM Omar Minaya is talking to the Cubs about a trade for Jason Marquis, and/or re-signing Oliver Perez or Pedro Martinez.

There could be a lot more moves on the horizon, but in a week expected to have a lot of fireworks, the hot stove fired up in New York and nowhere else. Stay tuned though, because deals are known to happen into January, and some, like Ramirez and Teixeira signing, could lead a domino effect for more moves.

Essentially what this means for the Mets is that they traded Heilman and Smith for Putz, while swapping marginal outfielders. The move is good for Seattle, who received a ton of young players, and for Cleveland, who now have a reliable sinker ball pitcher to put in front of new closer Kerry Wood. But it’s huge for the Mets, who will put Putz in the set-up role in front of K-Rod. Putz will earn just $5.5 million in 2009 and has a team option in 2010 for $9.1 million, and K-Rod’s contract also features a lot of money on the back end of his contract. That means Minaya and the Mets will have decisions to make in 2010 and beyond, but for 2009 in shiny new Citi Field, they have given themselves possibly the best one-two bullpen punch in the majors, and any lead after the seventh inning will almost certainly result in a win. Things still have to play out on the field, but that’s already a far cry from the two epic collapses of 2006 and 2007.

Meanwhile, the Braves and Yankees appear to be in a bidding war for RHP A.J. Burnett. The Yankees were not satisfied with just C.C. Sabathia, and are looking to fortify their rotation with Burnett, and/or Ben Sheets, Andy Pettitte or Derek Lowe. The Braves offered four years with a fifth year option, all totaling $80 million, to Burnett; and since then, reports surfaced that the Yanks upped their offer to $91 million, but that was incorrect, and it’s said to be more in the same $80 to $85 million range the Braves are offering, but with five years guaranteed. It’s unclear if the Braves can win a real bidding war with New York, but with the numbers close, this one will surely be more a matter of where Burnett wants to live and work for the next few years.

Well, a few things have happened of note this week. The Red Sox signed AL MVP Dustin Pedroia to a new, six-year deal worth $40.5 million. And this for a guy who was making less than $500K per year. But dude has earned every penny…..Javier Vazquez was traded from the White Sox to the Braves for four young (mostly minor league) players, and Ozzie Guillen is probably smiling if he’s reading this….the Padres sent Khalil Greene to St. Louis…..and the Giants signed infielder Edgar Renteria to a two-year, $18.5 million deal and are also talking about making CC Sabathia an offer and even trading for Florida third baseman Jorge Cantu. Yeah, the Giants are not messing around. And Derek Lowe has been offered two deals, one by the Phillies and another by a mystery team

Okay, so I guess some things are happening, but not the big ones we all were waiting for, at least not yet. The Yankees are set to meet with CC Sabathia this weekend to discuss their ridiculously large offer made recently. Here are a few other rumors and possible deals that could happen next week….

The Mets are finally prepared to offer deals to Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes, but it remains to be seen if both offers will happen simultaneously. Speaking of Fuentes, he, along with the likes of Sabathia and Cubs closer Kerry Wood have all been offered salary arbitration, which means anyone signing them will have to give the team that loses them two draft picks in 2009. Fuentes is also being rumored to re-signing with Colorado. And the Mets are rumored to be talking to the White Sox about sending prize prospect Fernando Martinez to Chicago for Bobby Jenks and Jermaine Dye. I just don’t see that really happening, do you?

Pat Burrell may sign with the Angels if the Angels cannot retain Mark Teixeira. And if Teixeira goes to the Red Sox, which is more than a rumor, the Sox may deal Mike Lowell to make room for Teixeira, who would be the first baseman with Kevin Youkilis moving to third.

Jermaine Dye’s name is being mentioned in trade talks (besides the Mets), and the teams being mentioned are Cincinnati, St. Louis, Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, the White Sox are also listening to offers for Jim Thome and Paul Konerko. Yikes….did someone give Sox GM Kenny Williams some dynamite?

Randy Johnson is hoping to sign a one-year deal with either Oakland or San Francisco…..the Cubs are thinking about signing Adam Dunn. Those two items didn’t just put you to sleep, did they?

Oh, and here’s a sure sign of the economy slowing. Dunn, Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu are among the names not offered salary arbitration this past week. That means the D-Backs, Phillies, and Yankees, respectively, would rather piss away two draft picks than have to re-sign the player. Say it with me again, Yikes.

Hopefully we’ll have lots to report next week!