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The good, bad and the ugly of the Bears signing Julius Peppers

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 21:01:08 +0000

If you’re a Chicago Bear fan, you’re probably going through a wave of emotions right now after learning that your team just signed free agent Julius Peppers to a six-year deal. So allow me to play NFL physiologist for a moment and break down what the signing could mean for the Bears.

The Good:
Peppers is a freak – a true athletic marvel. He’s averaged over 10 sacks a year in his eight-year career and racked up 25 QB takedowns in his past two seasons. Without question, the Bears needed to fill a massive void along their defensive line by adding a premier pass rusher, which they did by signing Peppers. He’s someone whose mere presence alone will make his teammates (Tommie Harris anyone?) better around him, by freeing them up to make plays. He was the crown jewel of the 2010 free agency period and he gives hope to a fan base that has been utterly dejected after the Bears crashed and burned in 2009 despite having high expectations following the Jay Cutler trade. Along with the deal for Cutler, the Peppers’ signing might also signal a new era for the Bears, one in which a once cheap organization will become more aggressive when it comes to acquiring new players.

The Bad:
There’s a strong possibility that Peppers won’t see the end of this contract. He’s already 30 and even though he’s an athletic monster, there are only a handful of defenders that are extremely productive well into their 30s. Even though they had to outbid the Eagles, Patriots and Daniel Snyder’s Redskins, $40 million is a lot of dough to pay an aging defender for the next three years.

The Ugly:
If you’re a Bears fan and you read the previous two paragraphs, chances are you’re still pretty stoked about the signing. But here’s where things get worrisome for the Chicago faithful: Peppers’ reputation for being lazy is well known. This was the same player that virtually took an entire year off in 2007 when he only registered 2.5 sacks in 14 games. He’s been known to take plays off, disappear for entire lengths of games and even run away from the action in order to avoid contact. When the Panthers wanted him to step up over the past couple years and be the leader of their defense, he declined. Last year, he produced 10.5 sacks but none of them came against divisional foes the Saints or the Falcons. His age is also a problem, as defensive ends seem to hit a brick wall at age 32. Twenty-nine defensive ends are in the top 50 for career sacks, averaging 10 sacks at age 30, 9.8 sacks at age 31, but only 7.3 sacks at age 32. Only eight of those 29 reached double digit sacks at 32, and four of those eight were among the best DEs to have ever played (Bruce Smith, Reggie White, Michael Strahan and Chris Doleman). So when it’s all said and done, the Bears might essentially be paying Peppers a three-year, $40 million contract in terms of production. That’s over $13 million a year, which is an awfully lot of money.

My final paragraph isn’t intended to kill the excitement for Bear fans. Peppers can be a game-changer that opposing offenses have to account for every down and his numbers speak for themselves outside of the ’07 season. It also has to be thrilling for fans to see their team finally spending money, seeing as how it’s been a long time since the Bears opened their wallets.

That said, Peppers probably won’t be worth the money in the end. If this were a player that could be counted on to play hard each and every week, the money might be justified. I realize the Bears had to overpay (it’s just the nature of the beast when it comes to free agency in the NFL), but there’s a good possibility that Chicago didn’t get much value here and won’t get what they paid for.

Still, it’s an awfully exciting day for the fine folks in “The Windy City.”

Update: Peppers’ contract was of the record-setting variety according to ESPN’s John Clayton. The official deal was for six years at $91.5 million, with $40 million guaranteed. Wow.

Was this a good signing for the Bears?

Redskins nearing deal with Julius Peppers?

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 04:37:22 +0000

Here’s a shock: Daniel Snyder might be ready to throw a ton of money at an unrestricted free agent.

According to sports talk show host Lance Zierlein of 1560AM in Houston, the Redskins are “charging hard after” Julius Peppers. Zierlein writes that today’s “bloodbath” in which the Redskins released 10 players will help pave the way for the team to sign Peppers by tomorrow.

Zierlein brings up a good point that Washington took similar steps last year, right before signing DT Albert Haynesworth to a mega-multi million deal. Although I don’t know how Zierlein would have inside information on the Redskins seeing as how he works in Houston, nobody will be surprised if Snyder signs the biggest free agent of the offseason. (And for that matter, nobody would be surprised if Peppers signed with whatever team offered him the most money.)

12:15AM ET Update: Zierlein writes on his Twitter page that the Bears aren’t going to let Peppers get away from them.

Will Peppers have a new home by Friday?

Anthony Stalter — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 18:00:43 +0000

In the rumor section on ESPN.com, the site speculates that Julius Peppers could have a new team by Friday, which is when teams can officially start signing free agents.

Julius Peppers will have a new team, and it could happen as quickly as this Friday. We continue to hear him linked to different teams, with varying degrees of certainty.

The Eagles and Patriots have been considered the front-runners for some time now, and the Bears also appear to be one of the front-runners for Peppers, given the fact that they have no picks in the first two rounds to find a new pass-rusher; in other words, any big personnel improvements will have to come from free agency. Bears LB Brian Urlacher seemed very pleased with the possibility of adding Peppers in recent comments to the Chicago Tribune. Meanwhile, at the scouting combine, leader of the Browns’ world Mike Holmgren discussed the Peppers possibility to the media, per NFL.com.

I think where Peppers will land will ultimately come down to two things: Money and whether or not he wants to play OLB in a 3-4. I’m sure he wants to play for a competitor too, but Peppers can also be lazy at times and if he has the chance to be a one dimensional pass rusher in a 3-4, then he may jump on the opportunity by signing with the Patriots or Browns.

The Bears have been linked to Peppers multiple times over the past week, but I can’t envision Jerry Angelo opening the team’s wallet in order to bring the defensive end to Chicago. The Bears could definitely use a pass rusher (really, what team couldn’t?), but if history is any indication, then there’s no doubt Angelo will once again go shopping in the offseason bargain bin to fill needs.

Another team I think we can safely cross off the potential candidates list is the Falcons, who are very familiar with the fact that Peppers will disappear during games and take plays off. The concept of adding Peppers to the same line as John Abraham and Jonathan Babineaux is enticing, but GM Thomas Dimitroff’s philosophy is to build via the draft. Plus, the Falcons already have younger, cheaper options than Peppers already on the roster in Kroy Biermann and Lawrence Sidbury, the latter of which is raw but has the size and speed to develop into a solid pass rusher.

If I were to make an official prediction as to where Peppers will land, my guess would be the Eagles. He wouldn’t be able to play OLB, but I think Philly would be willing to throw the money at him and he’d be intrigued by the possibility of helping the Eagles get to a Super Bowl.

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Bears the front-runners for Peppers?

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 21:15:59 +0000

The latest in the daily Julius Peppers-rumor mill is that the Bears could be the front-runners to land the hot ticket free agent.

From ESPN.com:

Well, the Bears didn’t make the “Final Eight,” and they appear to be one of the front-runners for Peppers, given the fact that they have no picks in the first two rounds to find a new pass-rusher; in other words, any big personnel improvements will have to come from free agency. Bears LB Brian Urlacher seemed very pleased with the possibility of adding Peppers in comments to the Chicago Tribune, and we’re not sure how much import will be assigned to his feelings by management, but he is the leader of the defense.

The Bears have always been among the cheapest organizations in the league, although they did pay dearly (both in terms of money and draft picks) to bring Jay Cutler to Chicago last offseason and they might be willing to open their wallets again to nab Peppers.

That said, if history is any indication then GM Jerry Angelo isn’t going to spend recklessly, if at all this offseason. Every year the Bears have gapping holes to fill and every year, Angelo does his shopping in the bargain bin. When the Bears needed to bolster their offensive line last season, Angelo signed Orlando Pace and Frank Omiyale on the cheap and he got what he paid for. Now he has to figure out how he’s going to address his needs along the O-line without having draft selections in either of the first two rounds.

One player I could see Angelo making a play for, however, is Aaron Kampman. Kampman wasn’t a fit in Dom Capers’ 3-4 defense in Green Bay last season and he knows the NFC North. He would come cheaper than Peppers and assuming he hasn’t lost his ability to rush the passer from a 4-3 end position, he makes sense for the Bears.

Panthers won’t use franchise tag on Peppers

Anthony Stalter — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 14:45:44 +0000

The Panthers have conceded the inevitable: Julius Peppers will become a free agent this offseason.

According to ESPN.com, Carolina won’t use its franchise tag on Peppers unlike it did last offseason.

If the Panthers had opted to tag Peppers, it would have cost them $21.4 million — about $1.3 million per game — which the team deemed too pricey. Peppers will be one of the highest-profile free agents since Reggie White.

Teams have until 4 p.m. ET on Thursday to use their franchise tags.

Let the bidding war begin. Any number of teams ranging from the Patriots to the Eagles to the Saints could make a play for Peppers, who will be the biggest name on the free agent market this offseason. Perhaps the most interesting decision Peppers faces is whether or not he wants to stand up and play outside linebacker in a 3-4 like he suggested last year, or if he wants to stay at his traditional 4-3 end position.

We’ll find out soon.

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Schefter: Top 5 NFL free agents for 2010

Anthony Stalter — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 15:49:48 +0000

ESPN’s Adam Schefter breaks down the top 5 free agents in this year’s class.

1. Julius Peppers, DE, Carolina Panthers
Should Carolina not tag Peppers — and it would cost the Panthers $21.4 million to do so — he might become the highest-profile free agent since Reggie White. Peppers, 30, would like to play in a 3-4 defense and rush the quarterback as often as possible. Every team in the league could use another pass-rusher. The question will be which ones are willing to spend the millions it will take to land him.

2. Karlos Dansby, LB, Arizona Cardinals
Just like the Panthers might deem Peppers too pricey to franchise, the Cardinals could do the same with Dansby, making him another desirable defensive free agent. It would cost Arizona just less than $11 million to keep the 28-year-old Dansby, and he would love to test the free-agent market and become one of the highest-paid defensive players in football history.

4. Chester Taylor, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Although Taylor turns 31 in September, he has low mileage, having backed up Jamal Lewis in Baltimore and Adrian Peterson in Minnesota. Should the Vikings tag Taylor, he would make $8.15 million next season — about twice as much as Peterson. So Taylor figures to be free, and he figures to be the top running back available for plenty of teams that need one.

Texans’ cornerback Dunta Robinson was No. 3 on Schefter’s list, while Casey Hampton and Ryan Clark of the Steelers were list at No. 5.

It’s interesting that Taylor is getting a lot of attention this offseason despite his age. Running backs over 30 usually get the silent treatment during the offseason, but Taylor figures to be a hot commodity when the free agency period opens in a couple weeks. A team like the Chargers seems like a good fit for him.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Is Julius Peppers worth a huge contract?

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 18:00:54 +0000

There’s no doubt that Julius Peppers will cash in on this year’s free agent market and in what should be a quieter-than-usual offseason, the defensive end would certainly be a huge catch.

But the question that all interested parties will inevitably be faced with is: Is Peppers even worth the price tag?

Peppers can be explosive at the point of attack and uses his speed to get off the edge to create havoc in an opponent’s backfield. He has great size and speed and can use a variety of techniques to disengage blockers and pressure the pocket. He’s also a better run defender than people give him credit for and simply put, he’s an athletic freak.

That’s the good, but here’s the bad. He has been known to take plays off, he’s highly inconsistent, and he can be unmotivated at times. He also just turned 30 and is the same player that virtually took an entire season off in 2007 when he finished with just 2.5 sacks (by far a career low) in 14 games.

Consider these stats from RevengeoftheBirds.com:

Age 32 is a bit of a brick wall for defensive ends. Twenty-nine defensive ends are in the top 50 for career sacks. Those ends averaged 10 sacks at age 30, 9.8 sacks at age 31, but only 7.3 sacks at age 32. Only eight of those 29 reached double digit sacks at 32 and four were Bruce Smith, Reggie White, Michael Strahan and Chris Doleman-four of the top five leaders in career sacks. They totaled 54.5 sacks at age 32. The remaining 24 totaled 150 sacks and averaged just 6.3 at age 32.

Peppers is the best free agent on the market and given the position he plays, he might wind up becoming the highest paid defensive player in the league this offseason. But let’s assume that he’s the norm and not the exception when it comes to defensive ends. Is he worth the hefty price tag? Is it worth it for some team to fork over millions of dollars when he might only be productive for the next two years? Sure, he may average 10 sacks over the next two years, but what happens after that?

I realize all of this is hypothetical, but given Peppers’ history of inconsistent play, age, and price tag, he might not be worth a long-term investment in the end. In fact, he probably won’t be.

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