Jeff Teague’s series performance (17-4-3, 56% shooting) against the Bulls in the Eastern Conference Semis got me thinking about all the promising point guards that came out of the 2009 Draft. Take a look:

5. Ricky Rubio, T-Wolves
6. Jonny Flynn, T-Wolves
7. Stephen Curry, Warriors
10. Brandon Jennings, Bucks
17. Jrue Holiday, 76ers
18. Ty Lawson, T-Wolves (traded to Nuggets)
19. Jeff Teague, Hawks
20. Eric Maynor, Jazz (traded to Thunder)
21. Darren Collison, Hornets (traded to Pacers)
25. Rodrigue Beaubois, Thunder (traded to Mavericks)
29. Toney Douglas, Knicks

It’s pretty amazing that with the emergence of Teague in Atlanta, no fewer than six players on that list have developed into starting caliber point guards in the NBA. Four others (Douglas, Beaubois, Maynor and Flynn) are rotation players.

Here are the 2010-11 stats for each player, sorted by Efficiency Per Minute, which is I believe the best way to quickly compare a player’s production.

From a numbers standpoint, Stephen Curry appears to be the best of the class, but Lawson, Holiday, Collison, Teague and Jennings are all solid starters and could potentially pass Curry as the years wear on.

This list makes Minnesota GM David Kahn look pretty silly considering he found a way to pretty much whiff with Rubio (who still is playing in Spain) and Flynn (who has been a disappointment, given his draft position) with all that talent on the board. He did draft Lawson, but traded him to Denver for Martell Webster.

And the Timberwolves still don’t have a point guard to build around. All of Kahn’s eggs are in Rubio’s basket at this point and he really needs the young Spaniard to make a splash when he finally arrives.

The 2010-11 NBA season starts tonight (Miami and Boston tip things off tonight at 7:30 ET on TNT) and while most eyes will be on one-name superstars like LeBron, Wade, Kobe and Melo, it’s fun to try to predict who this season’s breakout players will be.

It takes more than just talent to succeed in the NBA. It takes opportunity as well, and each of the 12 players I’ve listed before figure to play a more prominent role than they did last season. I didn’t include any rookies (or Blake Griffin, who qualifies as a rookie) because in order to break out, you have to have a baseline season to start from.

1. Kevin Love, Timberwolves
After spending most of last season coming off the bench, Love has started all eight preseason games and has averaged 18-11 while shooting 14-of-24 from long range. Neither Michael Beasley nor Darko Milicic are aggressive rebounders, so Love has a chance to lead the league in boards this season. I suspect Love will be in consideration for the All-Star team in January.

2. Darren Collison, Pacers
Indiana’s best move this offseason was to acquire Collison from the Hornets. He had a very nice rookie year, but the starting gig is his now and he doesn’t have to look over his shoulder wondering what’s going on with Chris Paul. He averaged 13-3-4 in the preseason, but I’d expect those numbers to rise with bigger minutes. He should be good for 16-4-6 this season.

3. Jrue Holiday, Sixers
Doug Collins is really high on Holiday, predicting that he’ll be a Top 5 point guard in the league sooner rather than later. He averaged 13-4-6 in March of last season and posted 12-6-5 in the preseason.

4. Roy Hibbert, Pacers
Hibbert averaged 12-6 in 25 minutes per game last season, but in seven preseason games, he has increased those averages to 17-9, though he’s shooting just 43% from the field, which is a little worrisome. Still, with Troy Murphy gone, there are a lot of minutes available on the front line, and Hibbert should get his fair share.

5. J.J. Hickson, Cavs
The third-year forward has started 7-of-8 preseason games and has averaged 14/8 in just 25 minutes a game. He’s going to start over Antawn Jamison, so if he gets his expected 30+ minutes a game, he could approach double-double territory.

6. Austin Daye, Pistons
Daye averaged just 5-3 in his rookie season, but he’s slated to start at power forward after averaging 16-6 in eight preseason games. He led the Pistons in three-point makes and attempts (17-of-34) so he’s a versatile forward. Hopefully he can hold up against the stronger power forwards in the league.

7. Terrence Williams, Nets
Williams had a solid rookie season, averaging 8-5-3 in 23 minutes per game. Apparently, he’s not going to start, but head coach Avery Johnson jokingly called him the “Sixth Man of the Year,” which bodes well. He has averaged 13-4-4 during the preseason which resembles what he was able to post late last year.

8. Arron Afflalo, Nuggets
He’s averaging 20-4-3 in the preseason and has started all eight exhibition games. Don’t expect those numbers when the Nuggets are at full strength, but something in the area of 14-3-2 is well within reach if Afllalo continues to get starter’s minutes. He’s doing everything J.R. Smith does, plus he’s a good defender and doesn’t come with all of the headaches.

9. Marco Belinelli, Hornets
A career 42% 3PT shooter, Belinelli has a great jumper and look for Chris Paul to set him up early and often. It appears that Belinelli will start at SG while Marcus Thornton will bring scoring off the bench.

10. Serge Ibaka, Thunder
It looks like Nenad Krstic will start at center for OKC, but Ibaka should get plenty of run given his ability to rebound and defend. He averaged 6-5 last season in 18 minutes, and he’s getting 27 minutes in the preseason, averaging 10-6.

11. Jordan Crawford, Hawks
Jamal Crawford is disgruntled because he doesn’t have a new deal, so if the Hawks trade him during the season, expect Jordan Crawford to get most of his minutes. He’s averaging 14-3-3 in 31 minutes per game in the preseason, so the rookie can definitely score.

12. Reggie Williams, Warriors
Williams is playing behind Dorrell Wright and is probably the better player. He’s averaging 14-2-2 in the preseason and shot 46% from the field. He also may see some minutes at the point when Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis aren’t on the court.

I can see being optimistic about a 20-year-old point guard who averaged 13-4-6 and shot 50% from the field and 46% from 3PT in 17 games in March, but new head coach Doug Collins might be going a little overboard here…

“I honestly believe that next year, you’re going to be talking about him being one of the top five point guards in the NBA. I think you’re going to speak about him in the same breath as Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose and Jrue.”

Good grief, Doug. Whatever happened to keeping your players hungry for praise?

For what it’s worth, Andre Iguodala supported Collins’ praise…

At Monday’s media day, Andre Iguodala admitted that he raved about Holiday, not even four months past his 20th birthday, to Collins and Sixers owner Ed Snider back in June. And he’s still doing it today.

“I said he’ll be one of the top point guards in the league,” Iguodala said. “In his prime, he’ll be a top five point guard and he might go down as one of the greatest point guards, defensively. He’s got kind of a Gary Payton presence, where he can pressure a guy full-court.”

Keep in mind that Iggy said “in his prime” that Holiday would be a top five point guard. That’s more reasonable than Collins’ assertion that it’s going to happen this season.

Either way, fantasy owners should take note — the Sixers are really high on this kid.

The NBA Draft Lottery is tonight, and as always, there is a lot riding on a few ping pong balls. Here is a list of the lottery teams (with their chances of winning the top pick in parenthesis) along with some discussion of their possible strategy if they do win the #1 pick.

ALMOST A SURE THING

Nets (25%)
The Wall-to-New Jersey/Brooklyn rumors have been strong all season, thanks to the Nets’ woeful record and Devin Harris’s struggles. Harris is now viewed as expendable, which means Wall would be a Net if the balls bounce their way tonight.

Wizards (10.3%)
Winning the right to draft Wall would allow the Wizards to cut ties with Gilbert Arenas and the franchise’s gun-toting past. It might also convince a free agent or two to sign for the chance to play with Wall.

76ers (5.3%)
Jrue Holiday is nice, but he’s not going to dissuade the Sixers from drafting a franchise-savior like Wall.

Pistons (5.2%)
See 76ers above but substitute “Rodney Stuckey” for “Jrue Holiday.” That is all.

Pacers (1.1%)
Indiana arguably needs a point guard more than any other team in the lottery, but with just a 1.1% chance of winning, they’re hoping against hope.

Grizzlies (0.7%)
Memphis would be buzzing with the arrival of Wall, who would seemingly be a great fit with O.J. Mayo, a re-signed Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Memphis would likely make the playoffs next season.

Raptors (0.6%)
The chances are very slim, but winning the right to draft Wall would offset the likely loss of Chris Bosh this summer. Neither Jarrett Jack nor Jose Calderon would be enough to convince the Raptors to draft Evan Turner.

VERY LIKELY

Clippers (2.3%)
They already have Baron Davis and they could use a wing like Turner, but the Clips are still almost a shoe-in to draft Wall if they have the chance.

Kings (15.6%)
Sacramento’s strategy largely depends on what position they think Tyreke Evans should play. Personally, I think he’s a small forward, but if the Kings are set on him running the point, then Wall isn’t a good fit. However, if they see him as a wing, Wall would be their pick.

Rockets (0.5%)
MIP Aaron Brooks is a good player, but it’s doubtful that they’d go with Turner or one of the bigs (Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins) when they already have Kevin Martin, Luis Scola and Yao Ming on the roster.

MIGHT GO ANOTHER DIRECTION

T-Wolves (19.9%)
GM David Kahn is so infatuated with the idea of Ricky Rubio that he just might pass on Wall and pick Turner instead to fill a need. He’d be better off going with Wall and moving Rubio and Flynn for other assets, but he has tunnel vision for Ricky right now.

Warriors (10.4%)
Golden State has their point guard, don’t they? Stephen Curry made a push for Rookie of the Year and averaged 22-6-8, 47% shooting, and 44% 3PT after the All-Star break.

Jazz (2.2%, via the Knicks)
Deron Williams recently re-took the “best point guard in the league” crown, do the Jazz really mess with that when Turner would be an upgrade on the wing or Favors and/or Cousins would shore up the middle after the likely departure of Carlos Boozer?

Hornets (0.8%)
Chris Paul desperately needs one or two talented wings to set up, and Turner looks to be a great fit. Besides, the Hornets already have a great backup in Darren Collison.

The draft lottery will be held at 8 PM ET just before the Magic/Celtics game tonight on ESPN.

Photos from fOTOGLIF

It’s waaaaaaaay too early to start judging the 2009 NBA Draft, but that’s not going to stop me (or anyone else, for that matter) from trying. It takes at least three years before a draft class really shakes out, so there’s no reason to fly off the handle criticizing (or praising) a team for what they did on Thursday night.

That said, as the draft wore on, there were some picks I liked and some that I didn’t. This is by no means the final say on whether or not the pick is good or bad; it’s just a snapshot that’s based on what we know right now.

So let’s jump the gun:

CHEERS TO…

Thunder: #3 James Harden
I don’t know that Russell Westbrook is really a point guard, but Harden projects to be a great fit in OKC.

Sixers: #17 Jrue Holiday
The talented freshman worked out for most of the lottery teams and was reportedly up and down leading up to the draft. With this much PG depth, I figured someone would slip and the Sixers were the beneficiary. In Holiday, they get a lottery talent and their point guard of the future, though Lawson would have been able to come in and help the Sixers more immediately.

Nuggets: #18 Ty Lawson
I thought he’d go to a team in more need of PG help, but the Nuggets swooped in and snatched him up. At the very least, I think he’s going to be a capable starter.

Grizzlies: #36 Sam Young
At 24, Young doesn’t have the upside of many of the players drafted ahead of him, but he’s already a better player than most, as well. If he can improve his handle, he could be a starter-quality small forward.

Spurs: #37 DeJuan Blair
Think this guy played with a chip on his shoulder before? Just wait and see what kind of energy he brings in 15-25 minutes playing for the Spurs. I know his knees are an issue, but I’m shocked that he wasn’t picked earlier in the second round.

Hornets: #43 Marcus Thornton
The Hornets have issues on the wing and they took a point guard with their first pick. They made up for it in the second round by acquiring Thornton, an off guard, from the Heat. He’s a great scorer and can make contested jumpers.

JEERS TO…

Timberwolves: #5 Ricky Rubio / #6 Jonny Flynn
It’s not that I don’t like the individual players or the individual picks; they just don’t make any sense when picked together. I don’t know how a Rubio/Flynn backcourt will be successful. Had the T-Wolves drafted Stephen Curry with one of the picks, it would have made a lot more sense.

Jazz: #20 Eric Maynor
Maynor is a good all-around player, and maybe the best that was available, so let’s not be too hard on the Jazz here. Still, how many minutes is he going to play behind Deron Williams? If he turns out to be a player, they can use him as an asset, so maybe they didn’t feel that way about any of the frontline players that were available.

Hornets: #21 Darren Collison
New Orleans has star/superstar quality players at PG, PF and C, and a good young prospect in Julian Wright at small forward, so off guard seems to be their biggest need. Like Utah, the Hornets went with a point guard to back up their best player. I like Collison, I just don’t like this pick for New Orleans (though they made up for it in the second round).

Blazers: #31 Jeff Pendergraph / #33 Dante Cunningham
I don’t have a problem with the players themselves, but with the fact that Portland passed on DeJuan Blair twice in the second round (where the financial risk is much lower if his health turns out to be a problem). They could have used his toughness and rebounding, but were unwilling to roll the dice on his knees.

- Charlie Villanueva is open to joining the Cavs, and given the current state of the economy, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the best he’ll be able to do is a deal at the mid-level (~$5.8 million). The Bucks first have to decide whether or not to make the qualifying offer (~$4.6 million) and they may elect not to in order to avoid going over the luxury tax threshold (~$71 million, and could drop). Without Villanueva (and Ramon Sessions, who is also slated to become a restricted free agent), the Bucks’ payroll is at about $61 million with only eight players under contract. Villanueva would give the Cavs a good matchup for Rashard Lewis. Both players are slender power forwards who can shoot the ball, though Charlie V isn’t known for his defense.

- UFA Andre Miller doesn’t have a problem with the Sixers’ hire of head coach Eddie Jordan. The Sixers are over the cap but well under the luxury tax, so I’d expect them to sign the 33 year-old to a one- or two-year deal in the $6-7 million range. He is unlikely to get that on the open market, but Portland is a team with cap space that could use his leadership.

- Toronto GM Bryan Colangelo plans to keep Chris Bosh and try to surround him with better players, unless the talented power forward expresses serious doubts about re-signing. By sending Jermaine O’Neal to the Heat for Shawn Marion (and his expiring contract), the Raptors have about $10 million in cap space heading into the summer. While that may not be enough to land someone like Carlos Boozer, it is enough, coupled with the team’s mid-level exception, to add two or three pretty good players to the roster. How about Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva/Chris Andersen? I’d expect the Bosh rumors to heat up next season if Toronto struggles again early on.

- Hoopsworld says that there’s a rumor making the rounds that the Thunder might take DeMar DeRozan #3. This sounds a little fishy to me because everything I’m seeing shows DeRozan slipping a little after poor agility and sprint tests at the combine. James Harden has the better standing vertical and is just 1.5″ off of DeRozan’s max vertical. Harden also beat DeRozan soundly in the agility and sprint tests and is the much more polished offensive player at this point. DeRozan is 1.5″ taller, but Harden has a higher reach because he has a longer wingspan.

- With Jonny Flynn and Jrue Holiday climbing the draft charts, Ricky Rubio is suddenly open to interviews and workouts with teams picking #2 to #4, which includes Memphis, Oklahoma City and Sacramento. Rubio apparently didn’t play very well in his season finale, and his camp may be worried about him slipping out of the top four if those teams in question find a guy they like better.