What constitutes a “breakout” season? To me, it’s a talented player who has been in the league at least one year who is about to see a big increase in minutes. Here is a list of 10 players (in no particular order) who I think will have career seasons in 2009-10.
1. Tyrus Thomas, Bulls
The 23 year-old is entering his fourth season and will probably be the Bulls’ starter at power forward. He averaged 10.8 points and 6.5 rebounds in 27.5 minutes last season, and an increase in minutes would enhance those numbers. Now that he has an effective mid-range jump shot, he can use that and his athleticism to get to the basket.
2. Anthony Randolph, Warriors
Randolph is a popular breakout pick this season after a great summer league and flashes of brilliance in his rookie year. He only played about 18 minutes per game last season, and is playing almost 28 minutes in the preseason, starting every game in which he’s appeared. Don Nelson may not start him during the regular season since he’s been battling some injuries, but expect him to get plenty of run this year.
3. Anthony Morrow, Warriors
Let’s stay in Oakland, shall we? Not to read too much into preseason stats, but through eight games, the second-year Morrow is averaging 22.0 points on 58% shooting (52% from 3PT). He’s going to come off the bench, but that might not last for long if Stephen Jackson eventually gets traded. Morrow is one of the league’s best shooters, nailing almost 47% of his threes a year ago.
4. Aaron Brooks, Rockets
With Yao Ming out and Tracy McGrady hobbled, the Rockets don’t have a whole lot of offensive options and Brooks is one of the best shooters the team has. He averaged 11.2 points in 25 minutes per game last season. If he gets 32-35 minutes per game, he should average somewhere in the 14-16 ppg range.
5. Louis Williams, 76ers
He’s a very different player than Andre Miller, the guy he’s being asked to replace. He isn’t going to drop a lot of dimes, but the guy can score, and if he gets starter’s minutes his averages are going to jump. In the preseason, he’s averaging 14.9 ppg in 27 minutes of PT.
6. Courtney Lee / Chris Douglas-Roberts, Nets
I’m listing them both because it’s not clear which will be the Nets’ starting shooting guard on opening day. It may not matter because the other might be the starting small forward. In the preseason, CDM and Lee are averaging 18.5 ppg and 17.0 ppg, respectively. While Devin Harris and Brook Lopez are likely to lead the Nets in scoring, Lee and Douglas-Roberts could both average 12-14 ppg.
7. J.R. Smith, Nuggets
Smith has already had a breakout year (in his first season with the Nuggets), but the departure of Dahntay Jones gives Smith the chance to start. George Karl started Jones last season because of his commitment to defense, so it’s just as likely that he finds another defensive-oriented off guard to fill that vacated role. Smith has the talent to start, but can he keep his head on straight and play enough defense to keep Karl happy? (By the way, he’s suspended for the first seven games.)
8. Channing Frye, Suns
After a nice rookie season (12p/6r) in New York, Frye wasn’t as good in his second season and landed in Portland where he didn’t get much run. Now he’s the starting center in Phoenix and is averaging 12.3 points and 4.0 rebounds in 26.8 minutes of playing time. The Suns are awfully thin on the front line, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Frye ends up playing 30-35 minutes a game.
9. Julian Wright, Hornets
While he isn’t shooting particularly well (41%) in the preseason, it appears that Byron Scott has finally given up on Peja Stojakovic and is ready to hand over the keys to Wright, who has started all six preseason games in which he has appeared. He’s a great athlete and versatile player, but the big mystery with Wright is his three-point shooting. He hit 10-24 attempts in his rookie season, but just 2-21 in his second year. The Hornets need shooters for Chris Paul to pass to, so if Wright doesn’t start knocking down shots, Scott might go back to Peja.
10. Hakim Warrick, Bucks
Warrick is leading the Bucks in preseason scoring with 14.4 ppg. He’ll battle with Luc Mbah a Moute, Carlos Delfino, Ersan Ilyasova and Joe Alexander for minutes. Scott Skiles will likely start Mbah a Moute at one forward spot because he’s a great defender, but the other is up for grabs. Regardless, Warrick should get plenty of minutes and is on a one-year contract, so he’s very motivated.
The one-two punch of LeBron James and Mo Williams provided 55 of Cleveland’s 99 points as the Cavs routed the Hawks, 99-72. LeBron had an MVP-like performance with 34 points, 10 rebounds, three assists and four steals. The Hawks have the talent to compete in this series, but they didn’t play very well against the Heat in the first round and that trend continued in the second half, where they were outscored 50-28. The Cavs’ defense forced 17 turnovers and held Atlanta to under 44% shooting.
In the late game, the Nuggets continued their march to the conference finals with a 117-105 win over the Mavs. Denver led by three heading into the fourth quarter, but a 9-0 run (including seven points from Carmelo Anthony) put Dallas in a bad spot. The Nuggets were up 19 with 2:50 to play, so the game wasn’t quite as close as the final score would indicate. Dirk Nowitzki did everything he could — 34 points, nine boards, four assists — but the Mavs were without Josh Howard (ankle) and were simply overmatched. The Nuggets had a balanced attack of Anthony (25 points), Nene (25), J.R. Smith (21), Chauncey Billups (18) and Kenyon Martin (12).
Smith in particular is an interesting player. He has a ton of scoring ability, but every so often he makes a bonehead play. I didn’t watch much of this game, but in the 10 minutes or so I did watch, Smith came over to help on Nowitzki at the top of the key and then suddenly left him — Dirk had the ball, mind you — to go cover J.J. Barea (or was it Antoine Wright?). Regardless, you don’t leave one of the league’s best scorers alone at the top of the key with the ball. Then, on the final play of the second quarter, he dribbled the ball around trying to wind the clock down, but then launched a 30-footer with five or six seconds to play. The long rebound bounced out to Jason Kidd, who had enough time to dribble to the other end of the court and get a good look at a three, which he made, cutting the Nuggets’ halftime lead to three.
But I guess when a guy is capable of scoring 21 points on just 10 shots in 25 minutes, you live with the occasional bonehead play.
You may have heard about Mark Cuban’s decision to confront Denver Nuggets G/F J.R. Smith after Smith threw an elbow at Mavs guard Antoine Wright.
The league has reviewed Smith’s elbow and decided that no action is necessary, but Cuban may still be punished. Here’s the video of the elbow — do you think it warrants a fine and/or suspension?
Keep in mind that the commentator here is a Nuggets fan, so he probably has his Denver goggles on. I don’t think that the elbow was meant as a warning. I think he tried to hit Wright in the face/throat after Wright got a shove in on Smith’s neck. Wright’s shove occurred when Smith tried to get to the glass and the shot was in the air. Smith threw his elbow after the ball went through the hoop.
I think Smith deserves some sort of punishment. Had his elbow connected with Wright’s throat, serious damage should be done.
This doesn’t give Cuban the right to confront an opposing team’s player. He should act like an adult and file a grievance with the league.
On a more humorous note, after the game, Smith apparently sent a signed pair of shoes to the Mavs’ locker room as a present for Cuban. It didn’t go over well with the Bratty Billionaire.
Offseason Movement: In what can only be considered as a straight salary cap dump, the Nuggets traded stalwart center Marcus Camby to the Clippers for the right to swap second round picks in 2010. Given Camby’s more-than-reasonable contract (two years, $15.7 million) and defensive prowess, it left a lot of people scratching their heads, especially when the team turned around and signed J.R. Smith to a deal worth $16.5 million over three years. Keep Your Eye On: J.R. Smith/Linas Kleiza
The team says that whoever plays better defense will get the bulk of the minutes. Both players are offensive-minded and are capable of putting up points in bunches. Smith has the better PER (18.15 compared to Kleiza’s 14.43) and is a year younger (22). The Nuggets are already defensively challenged, and neither guy is going to make anyone forget about Camby’s excellence in that area of the game. The Big Question: What is the Nuggets plan?
They didn’t trade Allen Iverson, but they did trade Marcus Camby. Are the Nuggets trying to win now or are they building for the future? The Camby trade implies the latter, but the fact that they held on to both Carmelo Anthony (smart) and AI (not smart) indicates that the team is still trying to win with (mostly) the same group as the last few years. Iverson is in the last year of his contract ($21.9 million) so if the Nuggets don’t get off to a good start, expect them to move him before the trade deadline, assuming they can find a trade partner with something of value to offer (like a few expiring contracts and a first round draft pick or two). Outlook: Confused. The loss of Camby means that the Nuggets are likely to take a step back, which means they are at the bottom of the playoff picture in the West. If they miss the playoffs, Iverson won’t be on the roster next season, so this will be a very interesting year in Denver.
I estimated his value to be $6.5-$7.5 million per season, but the Denver Nuggets locked up J.R. Smith for a little bit less, signing him to a deal averaging $5.5 million per season.
Smith has a history of being a little unruly, so that was probably the reason for the discount.
ESPN’s John Hollinger calculates Smith’s PER to be 18.15, which is the #14 amongst shooting guards, ahead of guys like Joe Johnson, Ben Gordon, Ray Allen and Mike Miller. Smith is a terrific scorer, but his defensive intensity has always been a question mark.
This is a good signing for the Nuggets, because even if they can’t get Smith on board defensively, his contract is very movable.
