After a pretty nice show of backbone in Game 6 and Game 7 of Atlanta’s first round series against the less talented but far gritter Bucks, the Hawks were absolutely drilled by the Magic. The Hawks lost the four games by an average of 25 points, including a 43-point loss in Game 1 and a 30-point loss (at home) in Game 3.

Why am I dwelling on the series? Because it’s a good indicator of just how far the Hawks still have to go to be true contenders in the East.

While it’s true that the franchise has increased its win total in each of the last six seasons, it just doesn’t seem like this team is anywhere near contention. Complicating matters, the Hawks’ most steady player, Joe Johnson, is an unrestricted free agent this summer.

Complicating matters further, Johnson has not endeared himself to Hawks fans over the past week or two. After a pretty nice first round (21-5-6) against Milwaukee, Johnson posted just 13-5-4 and shot under 30% against the Magic. That’s not the kind of performance that will convince a team to sign him to a max contract. Moreover, he’ll be 29 at the start of free agency, so one wonders if his best years are already behind him. He was outplayed by a 33-year-old Vince Carter, if that’s any indication.

Johnson is one of those players, not unlike Michael Redd a few years ago with the Bucks, who is not a “max” guy yet will command a maximum contract. I’ve said this over and over — just because a player is the best that a franchise has, it does not make him a franchise player.

The problem the Hawks face is that Johnson will be able to walk this summer with no compensation. He maybe willing to work out a sign-and-trade with his new team, but just like Chris Bosh, why would he agree to lower the talent level of his new team when he can sign with several teams outright?

Either way, between his performance against the Magic and his recently sour relationship with the fans, it does not seem like Johnson is long for Atlanta. Another issue is what to do with Mike Woodson, who has guided the team during its ascension.

Moving forward, the team has two very talented youngsters in Josh Smith (24) and Al Horford (23). In other words, the Hawks are set at power forward and center, but need a lot of help elsewhere. Mike Bibby is old, Jamal Crawford is a nice sixth man, but isn’t starter material on a championship-caliber team and Marvin Williams has yet to develop into the player that had Atlanta’s scouts drooling over his potential, so much so that they passed on Deron Williams and Chris Paul to select him with the second overall pick in 2005.

Cap-wise, they’ll have about $9 million to spend this summer, assuming Johnson walks. This team needs to focus on point guard and the wings. Jeff Teague didn’t get much run, but with Johnson, Bibby and Crawford in tow, there weren’t many extra minutes to go around. The Hawks’ plan going forward will depend on how they feel about Teague, who posted a PER of 11.07 in an average 10.1 minutes of playing time. Is he really their point guard of the future? (Let’s not forget that they passed on Darren Collison for Teague — think they’re regretting that decision now?)

For the Hawks to become a true contender, they need to land a franchise player on the wing or at the point. They own the 24th pick in this year’s draft, so Hawks fans shouldn’t hold their breath there. John Salmons has been mentioned as a possible free agent acquisition assuming Johnson walks. Salmons, coupled with the possible return of Josh Childress from Greece, could keep the Hawks competitive in a post-Johnson world.

With all the anticipation heading into this summer’s free agency period, one thing is certain — the Hawks will be right in the middle of it.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Milwaukee was cold from the field in Game 6 and that trend continued on Sunday, as the Bucks hit just 33% of their shots (an just 21% of their threes) in Game 7. The Bucks’ defense kept the game from getting out of hand, but without Andrew Bogut, Milwaukee had to hit its shots to keep it close.

Still, the Bucks trailed by just 12 early in the fourth quarter, but the Hawks buckled down and outscored Milwaukee 19-10 over the final ten minutes of the game. Joe Johnson struggled (4-of-14 from the field, 8 points), but the Hawks got good games from Jamal Crawford (22 points), Al Horford (16 points), Josh Smith (15 points) and Mike Bibby (15 points), who combined to shoot 25-of-43 (58%) from the field.

This series probably would have ended differently had Bogut been healthy, but give the Hawks credit for playing well with their proverbial backs against the wall. They played great defense in the last two games, and have all the tools to be a great defensive team. But Atlanta’s problem is focus. The Hawks have a tendency to vary their level of effort depending on the score of the game, and often come apart at the seams when the chips are down. They’re good, but they’re not good enough to turn it on and off whenever they want.

Do they have a chance against the Magic? Sure, but the Hawks are going to have to play an entire series the way they did in their four wins against the Bucks. Against the Bucks, if the Hawks played well, they’d win. That’s not necessarily the case against the Magic.

As for the Bucks, this was a disappointing end to a great season, but like Scott Skiles said in his “wired” segment before the game, when the team was sitting at 18-25 during the season, had anyone asked if they’d take an opportunity to play in a Game 7, they would have jumped on it. The fact that they pushed a far more talented Hawks team to seven games without Bogut is a moral victory.

Looking ahead to this summer, veterans Luke Ridnour, Kurt Thomas and Jerry Stackhouse are free agents. Ridnour played well enough this season to potentially earn a starting gig next season, though he’d likely struggle against the other starting-caliber point guards in the league. Thomas and Stackhouse may come back to give the Bucks a steady veteran presence off the bench, though GM John Hammond would be wise to keep the purse strings as tight as possible.

The big free agent decision may be John Salmons, who could opt out of the final year of the contract ($5.8 million). Despite posting 18-4-4 in the series against the Hawks, Salmons may have played himself out a few million dollars with a woeful shooting performance (8-of-31, 26%) in Game 6 and Game 7, when the Bucks needed him most. Salmons turns 31 in December, so the Bucks should proceed with caution. I can see a three-year deal worth $21-$24 million, but Milwaukee shouldn’t break the bank trying to re-sign him.

From Salmons’ point of view, he should give the Bucks a hometown discount, because he wouldn’t even be in the position to sign a lucrative new deal this summer if Hammond hadn’t traded for him at the deadline and Skiles hadn’t given him the freedom to be the Bucks’ main scorer on the wing.

Milwaukee projects to have a ton of cap space next summer (2011), so assuming the deal lasts at least two years, whatever contract they sign Salmons to will cut into that projected cap space.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

After a Josh Smith jumper, Atlanta led by nine with 4:09 to play, and the Bucks’ chances were looking pretty grim. But Milwaukee went on a 14-0 run over the next three and a half minutes to take a five-point lead. The run was keyed by John Salmons (8 points) and Ersan Ilyasova, who made a couple of key saves that led to a Carlos Delfino three and an inside bucket for Ilyasova.

Also key was Joe Johnson’s sixth foul, which came on a drive to the basket with 2:15 to play. Kurt Thomas, who drew a couple of key fouls in Game 4, stepped in and took the charge, and the play forced the Hawks’ best player out of the game. They tried to go to Josh Smith and Jamal Crawford down the stretch, but they went a combined 0-for-5 in the final two minutes. Throw in the Bucks’ 10-for-12 stretch from the free throw line (including 4-for-4 from Brandon Jennings with under 0:20 to play), and it all adds up to a Milwaukee win.

Jennings led the Bucks with 25-4-3 and is now averaging 20-3-4 in the postseason. Salmons chipped in with 19 points and played excellent defense on Johnson (6-for-16, 13 points) all night. The Bucks have won three straight after Scott Skiles decided to put Salmons on Johnson and let his defensive specialist, Luc Mbah a Moute, cover Josh Smith, who killed Milwaukee in the first two games. Salmons has proven that he’s up to the challenge and it has completely turned this series on its head.

The Bucks now head back to the friendly confines of the Bradley Center on Friday night with a chance to close out the series. I fully expect a raucous Milwaukee crowd.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

When handicapping the NBA MIP award, I always like to look at the player’s original draft position. Here’s a table with the last 20 winners of the MIP award. Take a look:

Notice anything? Only one MIP winner in the last 16 years (Tracy McGrady) was drafted in the first 12 picks.

It appears that the voters don’t just look at overall improvement, they also take into account unexpected improvement.

Looking at TrueHoop’s list of MIP candidates that received more than one vote from a panel of voters, here are draft positions for each player: Kevin Durant (2), Andrew Bogut (1), Corey Brewer (7), Joakim Noah (9), Josh Smith (17), Russell Westbrook (4), Aaron Brooks (26), Anderson Varejao (30), Channing Frye (8), Al Horford (3), Andray Blatche (49) and Zach Randolph (19).

Can we safely cross Durant, Bogut, Noah, Westbrook, Frye and Horford off the list?

Actually, I’m not sure. I don’t remember a year when there were so many top candidates drafted in the first ten picks. The top non-lottery pick is Josh Smith, and he averaged more points and almost as many rebounds two seasons ago. I don’t think the writers are going to look at his career stats and think improvement even though he played much headier ball this season (as evidenced by his improved shot selection and increased assists).

Of all the non-lottery candidates, Aaron Brooks best fits the MIP profile. Here are his numbers year over year:

2008-09: 11.2 ppg, 3.0 apg, 2.0 rpg, 40% FG%, 37% 3PT
2009-10: 19.6 ppg, 5.3 apg, 2.7 rpg, 43% FG%, 40% 3PT

I think he’s going to win the award, but a case could be made for the first four players on the list:

1. Kevin Durant was supposed to get better, but I don’t think that there were too many pundits predicting a 30-8-3 season and 50 wins for the Thunder. He averaged 25-7-3 the year before, so his stats don’t really reflect his improvement. I think this will hurt him in the MIP race. (It also doesn’t help that he’s also on the short list for MVP.)

2. Andrew Bogut might be the darkhorse. Yes, he’s a former #1 overall pick, but he’s been around just long enough for people to give up on him. A little more than a year ago, a buddy of mine said he was a bust. I know he was trying to tweak me — I’m a sometimes-proud Bucks fan — but still, since he was the top overall pick, we’re expecting more than the 12-10 that Bogut posted in 2008-09. We were expecting a star, and that’s exactly what Bogut became this season. He averaged 16-10, and was second in the league in blocks (2.5) and fourth in charges drawn per game. In fact, he was second in the league in HoopData’s stat “DEF” which tallies the total number of blocks, steals and charges. (It should be noted that Josh Smith was the player ahead of him, though I don’t know that too many MIP voters dig this deep into statistics.) In the end, the Bucks’ emergence as a playoff team, Bogut’s improvement on both ends of the court, and his season-ending arm injury might produce a groundswell of support in terms of winning the MIP.

3. Corey Brewer averaged 6-3-2 last season and 13-3-2 this season. That’s a nice jump in scoring, but Brooks’ improvement was more impressive.

4. Joakim Noah averaged 7-8 last season and posted 11-11 this year. That’s also an impressive improvement, but we saw it coming, didn’t we? If Noah gets starters minutes, there’s a great chance that he’s going to post a d
ouble-double. It doesn’t fit the profile of unexpected improvement.

What about George Hill? He only got one vote from the TrueHoop panel, but the former 26th overall pick improved his numbers from 6-2-2 last season to 12-3-3 this season, and was a big reason why the Spurs stayed in the playoff picture even though they lost Tony Parker for part of the season.

So, in terms of the MIP profile — a big statistical jump from a non-lottery draft pick — I think Brooks is the frontrunner, but Bogut has an outside shot and Hill is the guy (almost) no one seems to be talking about.

But should anyone even want to win this award? In its history, no MIP winner has ever won a NBA championship. Strange, but true.

Photos from fOTOGLIF

I’m trying to figure out what the hell Orlando was doing on defense. It looked like J.J. Redick was covering Al Horford (?), while Dwight Howard was cheating over to help on Joe Johnson, who was being covered by Vince Carter. Over on the weak side, Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis were checking three guys — Smith, Mario West and Marvin Williams. When the shot went up, Smith and West went to the glass, and Lewis just turned and watched the shot. He needs to box out someone there, preferably the better athlete (Smith) who has a better shot of following Johnson’s miss.

It actually kind of reminded me of the NC State/Houston game back in 1983. The final play starts at about the 0:15 mark, and when the shot goes up, you can see Hakeem Olajuwon just turn and face the shot like Lewis did. That allowed Lorenzo Charles to swoop in on the baseline, catch the ball, and dunk it home for the win. Here’s a look:

What’s the lesson, kids?

BOX OUT!

Here’s a quick list of the top 10 power forwards under the age of 26, ranked in the order of a combination of current performance and trade value (regardless of salary).

I’ll also list the player’s age and his Player Efficiency Rating. Keep in mind that I am ranking the player based on their listed position at ESPN. Maybe I’ll move some of these guys around the next time I publish these lists.

1. Chris Bosh, Raptors
Age: 24
PER: 22.67
Bosh has averaged at least 22 points and nine rebounds in each of the last four seasons. He shoots 50% from the field and 83% from the line, but I’d like to see more blocks (0.8) from a guy his size. Will he rendezvous with LeBron at MSG in 2010? They would make a devastating duo.

2. Josh Smith, Hawks
Age: 23
PER: 16.23
Smith is having kind of an off year so far as he works himself back from an ankle injury. It’s a tough call between Smith and the next guy on this list, but I have to go with J-Smoov due to his versatility.

3. LaMarcus Aldridge, Blazers
Age: 23
PER: 17.96
He’s not very strong down low, but for a big guy he can really shoot the ball. He loves the face up jumper, and looks to be a 17/7 guy for the foreseeable future.

4. Paul Millsap, Jazz
Age: 23
PER: 19.96
Millsap is averaging 18 points and 11 boards (shooting 57% from the field) filling in for the injured Carlos Boozer, which makes some wonder if the Jazz should bother to re-sign Boozer when he opts out after the season.

5. Michael Beasley, Heat
Age: 19
PER: 14.95
I see Beasley as more of a small forward, but he’s listed as a PF. He is averaging 14 points and five boards in 27 minutes. I’d like to see better assist (1.0) numbers, but that should come with time.

6. Marvin Williams, Hawks
Age: 22
PER: 15.74
Williams is another guy that can play either forward position. He has really improved his long-range accuracy this season (+29%), but is still scoring at about the same rate. With the departure of Josh Childress, I thought Williams was going to take a big step forward this season, but his numbers are pretty much the same across the board.

7. Charlie Villanueva, Bucks
Age: 24
PER: 17.49
Can Charlie V play for Scott Skiles? So far, the answer seems to be yes, even though Skiles prefers Luc Richard Mbah a Moute’s defense and rebounding. Villanueva is still a below average defensive player, but Villanueva can really light it up. He’s going to be a restricted free agent this summer, so it will be interesting to see what the Bucks do with him over the next 9 months.

8. Carl Landry, Rockets
Age: 25
PER: 19.19
For his minutes (21.3), Landry is one of the most productive big men in the game. He’s a great interior defender and his FG% is stellar (58%).

9. Brandon Bass, Mavericks
Age: 23
PER: 13.00
His biggest problem is that he plays the same position as Dirk Nowitzki. He’s strong as hell and has a nice face up game. It will be interesting to see how he flourishes once he’s somewhere where he’ll get 30+ minutes a game.

10. Kevin Love, Timberwolves
Age: 20
PER: 15.17
Granted, his 40% shooting is brutal, especially for a power forward, but Love is posting better than eight points and eight boards in just 24 minutes a game. With his passing ability, I thought that his assist numbers (1.2) would be better. Right now, it’s definitely looking like Memphis got the better of the Mayo-Love trade, but he should develop into a solid starting power forward.

So who am I missing? Before you jump all over me for leaving someone off the list, be sure to check the player’s age – all these guys are 25 or younger.

Other lists:

Top 10 Young Point Guards
Top 10 Young Shooting Guards
Top 10 Young Small Forwards