2010 NFL Division Previews & Predictions: AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West | 2010 Question Marks Series

One of the best battles in the NFL this year will reside in the NFC South, where the defending Super Bowl champion Saints will be tested by an improved Falcons team coming off back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in franchise history.

As for the rest of the South, the Panthers are in transition now that Matt Moore is under center, but they’re still going to be competitive on weekly basis and the Bucs should be improved as well. (Although I don’t see them getting out of the division cellar anytime soon.)

Here’s how I see things shaking out in the NFC South in 2010. Be sure to check out the link entitled “2010 Question Mark” under each team’s preview, which is a breakdown of one or two potential weaknesses that could derail that squad’s hopes this season. (If the links aren’t available now for some teams, check back because they will be before the season starts.)

1. Saints

What to Like: It’s hard to start a sentence about what’s to like about the Saints without first mentioning their offense. The dynamics between Sean Payton and Drew Brees are exceptional. Payton knows exactly how to attack an opponents’ weakness and Brees knows how to execute what Payton is trying to do. While the defense was certainly a surprise last year, the relationship between Payton and Brees was the main reason the Saints lifted the Lombardi Trophy last year. Of course, it never hurts to have playmakers like Marques Colston, Reggie Bush, Jeremy Shockey and Robert Meachem in the offense, either. Nor does having outstanding guards Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks, and tackle Jon Stinchcomb along the O-line either. Defensively, Gregg Williams was a miracle worker in his first season as defensive coordinator and was fortunate to have guys like Darren Sharper, Jonathan Vilma, Will Smith and Tracy Porter play opportunistic football. The addition of Alex Brown will also fix a major hole at the end spot opposite Smith in terms of pass rushing.
What Not to Like: This team is weak up the middle on defense. After coming off a promising rookie campaign, Sedrick Ellis struggled last year due to injuries and Remi Ayodele (who was brought in to be a run-stuffer) was highly ineffective and doesn’t offer anything in the pass-rush department. Vilma, who is an outstanding cover middle linebacker, struggled at times against the run last year and the same could be said for Scott Shanle. Former first round pick Malcolm Jenkins (who is a converted corner) takes over for Sharper at free safety and while he has the tools to be good, he’s never played the position before. Offensively, there are very few weaknesses but if I had to pick one it would be left tackle Jermon Bushrod, who struggled badly last season. Cowboys’ OLB DeMarcus Ware (who makes most tackles look bad) exposed him on national television last season and there are some concerns that he can protect Brees’ blindside.
Keep Your Eye On: Pierre Thomas
I didn’t even mention the running game in the “What to Like” section, so here it goes. One of the main reasons Payton’s offense and the Saints’ passing game is so efficient is because of the team’s ability to run the football. Now that Mike Bell is gone, Thomas should have even more opportunities than he received last season to be the rock in New Orleans’ backfield. Reggie Bush will still get his touches, but I don’t think a 1,000-plus yard season out of Thomas is out of the question – especially now that he’s fully healthy heading into Week 1 (he wasn’t at the start of 2009).
The Final Word: The Saints certainly don’t come without their weaknesses, but this is still the team to beat in the NFC South. Their offense will once again rank near the top of the league by year’s end (barring injuries, of course) and Williams proved to be an outstanding game-planner last season. The run defense is a concern, as is Bushrod at left tackle. But Brees and company are going to light up the scoreboard again this year and even if the defense takes a step back, I don’t see the Saints relinquishing the division crown quite yet.

New Orleans Saints 2009 Question Mark: Interior Defense

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There are moments every NFL season that could be deemed as defining for playoff contenders.

The Falcons had one of those moments in Week 12.

Atlanta lost Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and two starting offensive linemen on Sunday, but found a way to come from behind in the closing minutes to knock off division rival Tampa Bay, 20-17. Chris Redman completed 23-of-41 passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns while subbing for Ryan (who hurt his foot early in the first quarter and never returned), and also found Roddy White on a 4th and goal from the 5-yard line to lift Atlanta to victory.

Outside of two separate 18-yard runs by Turner and Jerious Norwood, the Falcons had no running game, which made things tougher on Redman. It also didn’t help that starting left tackle Sam Baker and starting right guard Harvey Dahl left the game due to injuries and the Bucs revved up the pressure. Tampa produced six sacks on the day and harassed Redman for the majority of the game.

But with the game on the line, Redman was excellent. With 2:30 left on the clock and zero timeouts, he led the Falcons 59 yards for the game-winning score by taking what the Bucs gave them and methodically marching down the field. On the crucial fourth down attempt, Redman threw a bullet to White, who made an incredible catch in between defenders to secure the catch.

The Falcons have a ton of injuries, can’t defend the pass, need a new kicker (Jason Elam is horrible) and have two daunting home games against the Eagles and Saints over the next two weeks, but if they can build off the momentum they seized today, then they’ll make the playoffs. One could argue that they should have beaten a bad Tampa team by more than three points at home. But considering they were playing with several backups (including Redman), the only thing that matters is that they produced a victory. And with winnable games against the Jets, Bills and Bucs down the stretch, if they can find a way to beat either the Eagles or Saints over the next two weeks then a 10-win season is a possibility.

Speaking of Tampa, Josh Freeman (20-of-29 for 250 yards, 2 TDs) played very well and the defense responded to Morris calling the plays for the first time this season. But Morris’ decision to attempt a long field goal late in the fourth quarter set the Falcons up with prime field position to mount their comeback. Had Morris decided to punt, the Falcons would have had to drive the length of the field with no timeouts. Hindsight is always 20/20, but the decision to attempt the field goal doomed the Bucs.

This is how I know nobody has a clue about what will happen in the NFL:

Green Bay Packers 17, Dallas Cowboys 7.

Unless you’re a Packer slappy, you couldn’t possibly have expected that outcome today; there’s just no way. Dallas had won four in a row, was coming off an impressive road win at Philadelphia and was playing with a ton of confidence. Green Bay, on the other hand, had not beaten a team with a winning record all season and had lost to the previously winless Buccaneers last week in one of the ugliest losses for any team this season.

Granted, some could say that this was a letdown game for the Cowboys after beating the Eagles last week, but it’s not like the Packers are the Browns or Rams; Dallas shouldn’t have had any problem getting up for this game today.

Nevertheless, the Packers’ defense played one hell of a game by completely shutting down a Dallas offense that had been firing on all cylinders entering the game. Green Bay forced three turnovers, held the Cowboys to only 61 rushing yards and sacked Tony Romo five times. It was a dominating effort by Dom Capers’ defense tonight that was embarrassed last week in Tampa. The Packers’ O-line still tried their best to get Aaron Rodgers killed, but Green Bay will certainly take a win, especially after the team held a players-only meeting earlier this week in an effort to try and clear the air.

Since the Eagles also lost today, this won’t set the Cowboys back in the standings but it is alarming that Green Bay was able to shut down Dallas’ offense so easily. I mean, this was the same Packers defense that gave up 38 points last week to the Buccaneers, who were starting a rookie quarterback in Josh Freeman.

Maybe this was just an off day for Wade Phillips’ team. They better hope so anyway.

Ronnie Brown left Land Shark Stadium on Sunday on crutches after injuring his right ankle in the Dolphins’ 25-23 win over the Buccaneers. He was unable to re-enter the game after injuring the ankle and it’s unclear at this point whether or not he’ll miss any time.

The game itself was absolutely wild, or at least the finish was. Miami had a win all but locked up after they forced Josh Freeman to throw an incomplete pass on a 4th and 6 from the Dolphins’ 22-yard line with just over two minutes remaining. But Quincy Black intercepted Chad Henne on a 3rd and 7 (why the Dolphins were throwing in that spot I don’t know) and Tampa capitalized with a Cadillac Williams 1-yard touchdown run to give the Bucs a 23-22 lead. (And the only reason the game wasn’t tied at 23-23 is because Miami missed an extra point earlier in the game.)

But the Dolphins then marched up the field under a 1:15 to play and capped the drive off with a Dan Carpenter 25-yard field goal to win the game.

Not exactly how you want to finish a game, but a win is a win and Miami will certainly take it.

Once Brett Favre signed with the Vikings and the Bears acquired Jay Cutler this offseason, pundits couldn’t help but to gush over how good the NFC North Division would be.

But now that nine weeks are in the books, it’s clear that the NFC North is the most overrated division in football.

With Favre under center, the Vikings have been as good as advertised this season. But the Bears were crushed 41-21 at home by the Cardinals on Sunday and the Packers lost 38-28 to the freaking winless Buccaneers and rookie quarterback Josh Freeman, who was making his first career start.

Turnovers killed Green Bay today in Tampa. The Packers managed to rack up 404 yards of total offense, 170 yards on the ground (Ryan Grant was effective) and also held the Bucs to just 81 rushing yards of their own. But Aaron Rodgers was intercepted three times, including once with time ticking down in the fourth to seal Green Bay’s fate. (Tanard Jackson returned the interception 35 yards for a touchdown to put Tampa Bay up for good at 38-28.)

Somehow, the Packers allowed Freeman to throw three touchdown passes without much threat of a running game. Freeman was far from perfect as he threw an interception, struggled with his accuracy and fumbled a snap (which was recovered by Tampa). But he was solid in the second half, showed nice poise for being a rookie and bought extra time for himself while scrambling out of trouble. Head coach Raheem Morris said his rookie signal caller was ready to play coming into the game and it showed.

The Packers still haven’t beaten a team with a winning record this season. I’ll be the first to admit that I was wrong when I said in the preseason that they were Super Bowl contenders. They haven’t been able to overcome the injuries on the offensive line and the defense has been inconsistent. Rodgers wasn’t great today, but for the most part he has kept his team in games on his own by buying himself extra time to find open receivers.

Green Bay’s schedule is tougher in the second half than it was in the first. This is an 8-8 team at best and so are the Bears (if that). That’s not exactly what most pundits had in mind when they were talking up the NFC North in preseason.

The Josh Freeman era has started in Tampa Bay.

Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris said Wednesday that the rookie will start at quarterback when the team takes on the Packers next Sunday (following their bye this week). Freeman, a Kansas State product, was the 17th overall pick in April’s draft.

This will be the second quarterback change for the Bucs in 2009, as Freeman replaces Josh Johnson, who replaced Week 1’s starter, Byron Leftwich. Freeman took two sacks and fumbled once while going 2-for-4 for 16 yards in his NFL debut last week against the Patriots in London. He also completed just 44.9% of his attempts with one touchdown and three interceptions in preseason.

Freeman was an incredibly raw prospect coming out of Kansas State, which is why the Bucs were hoping to leave him on the sidelines during his rookie year and learn from Leftwich. But the Bucs have been so abysmal this year that Morris is hoping the strong-armed Freeman will provide a spark.

It’s doubtful that the rookie QB will turn around a Tampa team that ranks 23rd overall in total offense. The Bucs’ defense is often left on the field too long because the offense can’t sustain drives. The team has not gelled together since Morris has taken over and ranks near the bottom in every offensive and defensive category in the NFL. But hey, you never know. At least he’ll gain some experience and the Bucs will see what kind of player they have on their hands.

According to a report by NFL.com, the Bucs could start rookie first round pick Josh Freeman as early as Week 9, or the week after Tampa has its bye.

From Rotoworld.com:

NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora reports that “people in the (Bucs’) organization” expect first-round rookie Josh Freeman to take over as the team’s starting quarterback by as soon as Week 9.

Week 8 is the Buccaneers’ bye. There has been a startling lack of commitment to quarterbacks among team brass so far, so this isn’t a surprise. Coach Raheem Morris also admitted following Week 5 that he strongly considered letting Freeman make his debut against Philadelphia. La Canfora says a change may only happen if Tampa loses its next two games, but that’s a fair bet to happen against Carolina and New England.

I’ve been befuddled by the way Raheem Morris has handled things in Tampa since taking over for the fired Jon Gruden. I don’t know if the guy is completely overmatched and incapable of being a NFL head coach, or if he’s just feeling his way through things in the early going. He deserves a chance either way, but he has plenty of skeptics already.

As far as Freeman is concerned, the Tampa coaching staff knows if he’s ready or not. If he has made significant strides since offseason workouts and preseason, then maybe he deserves to start. Personally, I wasn’t very high on him as a prospect. He’s a great kid with great work ethic and he has all the physical tools to succeed in the NFL, but he’s incredibly raw and will probably need a few years to develop.

Hopefully Morris and company exercise patience with Freeman.