Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- A week after the Bucs were absolutely embarrassed by the 49ers in San Francisco, they turn around on Sunday and dominate the Saints to even things up in the NFC South. Granted, this was the Saints’ third-straight road game and their head coach had to call plays from the bench and from up in the booth after tearing his MCL and fracturing his tibia in a nasty first-quarter collision with his tight end on the sidelines. But still, you can’t take anything away from the Bucs today. They picked off Drew Brees, forced four turnovers and got a 300-yard performance out of Josh Freeman. They were also without promising runner LeGarrette Blount, but Earnest Graham filled in admirably with a 109-yard effort. Suddenly the NFC South is once again tight, as the Saints and Bucs are both 4-2 and the Falcons are only one game behind at 3-3.

- Who would have thought that the midfield handshake would provide more action than the actual game between the 49ers and Lions today? I’m sure plenty of Lion fans were upset with Jim Harbaugh’s excitement following the Niners’ win in Detroit, which is understandable. Considering Harbaugh didn’t have his finest coaching performance of the year, he probably could have toned down his exuberance while heading out to midfield to shake Jim Schwartz’s hand. But let’s make one thing clear: If you’re going to dish it out, you better be willing to take it. And Schwartz has been dishing it out all year in the form of taunting opposing players and nearly knocking himself out with hay-maker fist pumps. In fact, as my good buddy Drew (a huge Lions fan) pointed out following the game, Schwartz gave Harbaugh guff in the first quarter after the San Fran coach challenged a touchdown. Schwartz seemingly shouted “No the rules!” at the 49er sideline. The Niners won and Harbaugh has every right to be excited. Schwartz should have kept his composure.

- For about the 9,000,000 time in my career, I was wrong about the Bears. They screw me at every turn. When I predict that they’ll win, they don’t. When I say they’ll lose, they completely dominate a divisional opponent 39-10 on national television. I don’t understand them and quite frankly, I don’t want to understand them. I have zero clue when it comes to predicting the success or failures of the Chicago Bears, whom I predicted would beat Peyton Manning in the 2006 Super Bowl. (We all know how that turned out and I think it’s fitting that I mention that game on the same day Rex Grossman throws four interceptions.) Tonight I thought Jared Allen and Adrian Peterson would take over the game in Chicago and instead, Jay Cutler and Devin Hester put on a clinic. They were masterful against a Minnesota team that I thought was a tad better than its record indicated. Thus, I humbly eat crow, as I was once again was wrong about Chicago. Congrats, Bears – you mother…

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In his latest edition of “Monday Morning Quarterback,” SI.com’s Peter King has an interesting tidbit about how Rex Ryan and the Jets wound up choosing Mark Sanchez over Josh Freeman in the 2009 NFL Draft.

Ryan tells an interesting story in the book about pursuing a franchise quarterback once he got the Jets job. The choice came down to USC’s Mark Sanchez and Kansas State’s Josh Freeman. “We sent both of them a mini-playbook and asked them to learn what they could from it before they met with us,” Ryan told me. “They both blew the doors off us when we got them in a room. We’d ask about out formations and bam-bam-bam, they knew it all quick. Both very, very sharp guys.”

But in telling the story in the book, Ryan says one of the factors that swayed the Jets was how Sanchez was regarded by his peers. He said 24 high school and college mates showed up to catch balls for Sanchez. When they’d been to Kansas State to work out Freeman, two of his receivers showed up. “Honestly,” Ryan told me, “that might have been what separated them — the immense respect we sensed from the people who played with Mark and knew him so well.”

While some still have their doubts about Sanchez’s overall abilities, the Jets’ decision worked out for not only them, but the Bucs as well. In two seasons, Sanchez has led Gang Green to back-to-back AFC title game appearances and Freeman has the Bucs on the cusp of making the playoffs as well. It’s not a stretch to think that both teams are happy with the way the situation turned out.

It’s always interesting to hear how teams go about scouting prospects and inevitably how they decide on a player. It may sound rather obtuse for Ryan to make a decision on a franchise quarterback based on how many people showed up to the prospect’s workout, but sometimes that’s what it comes down to. Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff ultimately made the final decision to choose Matt Ryan over defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey because Ryan blew him away in the interview room – not on film. Granted, Ryan’s on-field abilities also factored heavily into the decision. But Dimitroff trusted his gut after interviewing the former Boston College product and while some in Atlanta wanted Dorsey, obviously the GM made the right decision in the end to go with Ryan.

This isn’t to suggest that an interview with a prospective player is something to be overlooked. But sometimes for teams it comes down to the simplest of factors when it comes to deciding on a prospect.

Well, I’m pretty sure the announcement for NFL MVP comes down this weekend, so let me begin by saying that I was not influenced by anything that I read when making these picks…..

1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots—Brady, who is going to run away with this award, played about half a game last Sunday, and still threw for 199 yards with 2 TDs and 0 picks. He hasn’t thrown an interception since like early October.

2. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles—Vick did Brady a favor by not being in the lineup against Dallas in Week 17, but he and his coach know what’s more important, and that is for him and some nagging injuries, resting up for the Packers.

3. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—He wound up third in yards (4620) and tied for second in TDs (33) but uncharacteristically threw for 22 interceptions.

4. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—4700 yards, 33 TDs, 17 picks. But most impressive is the way Peyton led his team to the postseason when things looked bleak.

5. Matt Cassel/Jamaal Charles/Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs—Cassel had a dreadful game in Week 17, but we stand by the fact that this was a trio that helped a young KC team win their division and a 4-seed.

6. Arian Foster, Houston Texans—Not only did he lead the league in rushing (1616 yards), but Foster added a whopping 66 receptions for 604 more yards—giving him 2220 yards from scrimmage and 18 TDs.

7. Matt Ryan/Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons—Well, at 13-3, someone had to be good for them to get there, especially with all of those come from behind wins.

8. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers—Finished with 3922/28/11 in 15 games, but what counts is leading his team to the postseason berth they deserve.

9. Clay Matthews, Green Bay Packers—If they could do last year’s draft over again, do you think Matthews would still be picked at #26?

10. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers—You know, he led the NFL in passing yards (4710) and had 30 TDs with 13 interceptions. He didn’t have Antonio Gates for a while, and he had Vincent Jackson for maybe two games. That’s why we can’t discount Rivers’ numbers.

11. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Bucs—We had to add one more. This kid is going to be a star. Oh wait, he already is. Freeman started every game and wound up with 3451 passing yards with 25 touchdown passes and just 6 interceptions. By comparison, Eli Manning had more than FOUR times as many picks.

Here are three quick-hit observations on the Bucs’ shocking 23-13 win over the Saints.

1. The Saints have issues heading into the playoffs.
After knocking off the Falcons less than seven nights ago, everyone was talking about how nobody wants to face the Saints in the postseason. But after the crap-show they put on Sunday in New Orleans, why should any team be worried about New Orleans? Drew Brees threw an inception in his 12th-straight game. Thomas Julius Jones fumbled at the goal line, which cost the Saints six points. For the second consecutive game, Sean Payton couldn’t get his offense moving. What’s going on here? The Saints are dangerous, period. But because of injuries and inconsistent play, they haven’t be dominant all season and it makes you wonder if they have what it takes to make another run to the Super Bowl.

2. The Bucs prove they can hang with the big boys.
Entering this game, the Bucs didn’t have a win against a team with a winning record. That didn’t mean they weren’t good or that they were lucky to still be in the playoff picture, but they lacked a signature win. Not anymore. For the second year in a row, Tampa went into New Orleans and beat the Saints. That’s remarkable considering the Saints won the Super Bowl last year. Raheem Morris has his young team believing that it can beat anyone and it proved on Sunday that it can. Josh Freeman continues to be special. Mike Williams is a great young playmaker. The defense is starting to take shape under Morris’ guidance. Regardless of whether or not they earn a trip to the postseason, things are starting to take shape in Tampa.

3. Why didn’t Payton remove his starters earlier?
I love Payton’s desire to win but he has to be smarter. The Falcons were obviously in control against Carolina up 31-3 midway through the third quarter and with nothing on the line in terms of playoff seeding for the Saints, Payton should have pulled his starters earlier. Malcolm Jenkins, Jimmy Graham, Chris Ivory and Alex Brown were all hurt in the first half. Marques Colston, Pierre Thomas, Jeremy Shockey and Anthony Hargrove were all inactive before the game. The Saints should beat whichever NFC West team wins on Sunday night in the first round of the playoffs next weekend, but they can’t be shorthanded for the Divisional Round. Payton is fortunate that Brees or another starter wasn’t hurt after he exposed his starters to injury longer than he had to.

I’m starting a new column and I’m calling it “I’m Just Saying.” Peter King has a column (Monday Morning Quarterback), so it only makes sense that a well-respected sports blogger like myself has a column as well.

What? I’m not well-respected? Who the hell is Anthony Stalter? Peter King is more established?

What-ev.

- Let’s hold off on the Giants-look-like-Super-Bowl-contenders-again talk after they beat a crap Redskins team. After their effort against the Eagles and Giants over the past few weeks, I’m fully convinced that Oregon could beat the Redskins on a neutral field.

- Hey Josh Freeman, I’d stay away from Brent Grimes the next time Atlanta comes to down. Dude is small but he’s often the most athletic player on the field.

- Lion fans are pissed about the unnecessary roughness penalty on Ndamukong Suh for the forearm shiver that he delivered to Jay Cutler’s back, but riddle me this, Batman: Was the play avoidable? Could Suh have chosen not to go GSP on Cutler and still gotten him down? What I’m asking is: Was it necessary roughness?

- I’m pretty sure I could think of two reasons not to start Brett Favre for every one reason that Leslie Fraizer comes up with. Let’s start with these: His touchdown to interception ratio this year is 10:17 and even after his effort on Sunday, one could make an argument that Ryan Fitzpatrick is better at this point in his career. That’s right – Ryan Fitzpatrick. So why not Tarvaris Jackson, Leslie?

- Is there any reason Marion Barber should get carries for the Cowboys with how good Felix Jones and Tashard Choice looked against the Colts? Sorry, is there any good reason I mean to write.

- You’re lucky the Colts wound up scoring anyway, Eric Foster.

- Hey Peyton: blue shirts, white helmets, my man.

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Another week, another top team in one of the conferences goes down.

Check out Week 12′s Rankings

1. New England Patriots
Previous Week: 1
The game was close at halftime but Tom Brady took over in the second half as the Pats destroyed the Lions on Thanksgiving Day. The win was significant because it showed that New England didn’t overlook a bad team with the Jets on deck.

2. Atlanta Falcons
Previous Week: 5
The 2009 Saints are the reason why people are still reluctant to call the Falcons the best team in the NFC. New Orleans steamrolled over everyone last year, but Atlanta wears teams down until they can win it in the fourth quarter (sometimes late in the fourth quarter). They’re not the most talented team (at least defensively), but they’re consistent and with their win over the Packers last Sunday, the Falcons have now beaten four straight playoff contenders (Bucs, Ravens, Rams and Packers). Argue with that.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Previous Week: 2
The Steelers beat the Falcons without Big Ben in Week 1, but the only reason they’re still ranked this high is because Steve Johnson dropped that touchdown pass in overtime. Every team is allowed a mulligan or two throughout the year and that was the Steelers’ last week. They got caught looking ahead to Baltimore a week early.

4. New York Jets
Previous Week: 4
If the Jets want the No. 1 spot in these rankings, I’ll give it to them if they can beat the Patriots on Monday night next week. They’ve already beaten the Pats once this year but to do it in Foxboro is another story.

5. New Orleans Saints
Previous Week: 8
What should scare every team in the NFC is that nobody is talking about the Saints right now. Sure, they could have easily lost to the Cowboys had Malcolm Jenkins not run down Roy Williams in the final minutes on Thanksgiving. But let’s not overlook the fact that the Saints are getting healthy and could head into the playoffs with a full head of steam. Who would want to play this team in January?

6. Baltimore Ravens
Previous Week: 9
Their win over the Bucs last Sunday was highly unimpressive from an offensive standpoint. But with the Steelers coming up this week, it was good to that Baltimore wasn’t caught looking ahead.

7. Chicago Bears
Previous Week: 13
This isn’t the same team that took the field in the first six or so weeks of the season. The offensive line has greatly improved over the last three weeks and Jay Cutler is starting to put some quality games together. If Mike Martz can stop taking unnecessary chances and rely more on his running game, then the Bears are going to be tough to beat down the stretch. That said, they have a tough schedule coming up, which includes a date with the Packers in Green Bay.

8. Philadelphia Eagles
Previous Week: 3
I think the Eagles started to read their own press clippings after beating the Giants. That was when everyone started to talk about how this team was the best in the NFC and then smack! They met a determined Bears team in Chicago. This may not be the team to beat in the NFC, but they’re still the team to beat in the NFC East.

9. Green Bay Packers
Previous Week: 6
It would be a shame if a 7-9 or 8-8 team in the NFC West makes the playoffs and the Packers (who know doubt will have a better record) don’t. This is a good team led by an elite quarterback. Now they just have to figure out ways to win close games so they’re not nipped come playoff time.

10. San Diego Chargers
Previous Week: 11
I wonder if the Raider fan who left a comment on my rankings two weeks ago that Oakland should be ahead of San Diego will come back to eat crow. Doubtful.

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Josh Freeman can beat bad teams by himself. He’s done it all year.

But when the Bucs play good teams like the Falcons, Saints or their counterparts on Sunday, the Ravens, the second-year quarterback is going to need more help.

In Tampa Bay’s 17-10 loss to Baltimore, Freeman completed just 17-of-37 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown. But those subpar numbers weren’t entirely his fault.

The Bucs got a couple of good runs out of LeGarrette Blount and Carnell Williams, but they couldn’t move the ball with any consistency on the ground. Rookie receiver Mike Williams was targeted seven times, but he caught just two passes for 20 yards. And yes, Freeman misfired on plenty of passes, several on third down.

The Bucs gained respect by hanging with the Ravens in Baltimore, but they already had people’s respect. Now what they want is to beat good teams and they just haven’t done that. They’re 7-4 and only two games back of the Falcons in the NFC South, but if they want to contend for a playoff spot (whether it be this year or next), they have to figure out ways to win tough games.

They’ll get another shot next Sunday when they host the Falcons, who currently own the best record in the NFC.

Bucs’ rookie receiver Mike Williams was arrested on a DUI charge early Friday morning, although there seems to be more to the story.

Apparently Williams’ blood-alcohol level was .065 and .061, which is below the limit of .08 in Florida. He failed his field sobriety test, however, and was given a urine test to see if he was impaired by a substance other than alcohol.

If he wasn’t under the influence of any drugs, then it makes you wonder why he failed the field sobriety test. Did the police have it in for him? I don’t play the role of conspiracy theorist too often, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that a cop would make an unnecessary arrest. That said, it’s also not a stretch to think that an athlete decided to partake in a substance other than alcohol.

There are conflicting reports on whether or not Williams will start this Sunday in San Francisco. ESPN’s Adam Schefter, after speaking with a team source, reported earlier this morning that Williams would play. But now Schefter is saying that he spoke to someone else with the Bucs, who claims that the rookie wideout will not suit up against the Niners. It’s quite possible that the results of Williams’ urine tests are back and he did test positive for drugs. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Williams has been one of the many bright stars for the surprising Bucs this season. He’s been the favorite target of second-year quarterback Josh Freeman and at 6-3, Tampa remains in the hunt for not only a Wild Card berth in the NFC, but possibly the South division if they can keep pace with the Falcons and Saints.

2010 NFL Division Previews & Predictions: AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West | 2010 Question Marks Series

One of the best battles in the NFL this year will reside in the NFC South, where the defending Super Bowl champion Saints will be tested by an improved Falcons team coming off back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in franchise history.

As for the rest of the South, the Panthers are in transition now that Matt Moore is under center, but they’re still going to be competitive on weekly basis and the Bucs should be improved as well. (Although I don’t see them getting out of the division cellar anytime soon.)

Here’s how I see things shaking out in the NFC South in 2010. Be sure to check out the link entitled “2010 Question Mark” under each team’s preview, which is a breakdown of one or two potential weaknesses that could derail that squad’s hopes this season. (If the links aren’t available now for some teams, check back because they will be before the season starts.)

1. Saints

What to Like: It’s hard to start a sentence about what’s to like about the Saints without first mentioning their offense. The dynamics between Sean Payton and Drew Brees are exceptional. Payton knows exactly how to attack an opponents’ weakness and Brees knows how to execute what Payton is trying to do. While the defense was certainly a surprise last year, the relationship between Payton and Brees was the main reason the Saints lifted the Lombardi Trophy last year. Of course, it never hurts to have playmakers like Marques Colston, Reggie Bush, Jeremy Shockey and Robert Meachem in the offense, either. Nor does having outstanding guards Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks, and tackle Jon Stinchcomb along the O-line either. Defensively, Gregg Williams was a miracle worker in his first season as defensive coordinator and was fortunate to have guys like Darren Sharper, Jonathan Vilma, Will Smith and Tracy Porter play opportunistic football. The addition of Alex Brown will also fix a major hole at the end spot opposite Smith in terms of pass rushing.
What Not to Like: This team is weak up the middle on defense. After coming off a promising rookie campaign, Sedrick Ellis struggled last year due to injuries and Remi Ayodele (who was brought in to be a run-stuffer) was highly ineffective and doesn’t offer anything in the pass-rush department. Vilma, who is an outstanding cover middle linebacker, struggled at times against the run last year and the same could be said for Scott Shanle. Former first round pick Malcolm Jenkins (who is a converted corner) takes over for Sharper at free safety and while he has the tools to be good, he’s never played the position before. Offensively, there are very few weaknesses but if I had to pick one it would be left tackle Jermon Bushrod, who struggled badly last season. Cowboys’ OLB DeMarcus Ware (who makes most tackles look bad) exposed him on national television last season and there are some concerns that he can protect Brees’ blindside.
Keep Your Eye On: Pierre Thomas
I didn’t even mention the running game in the “What to Like” section, so here it goes. One of the main reasons Payton’s offense and the Saints’ passing game is so efficient is because of the team’s ability to run the football. Now that Mike Bell is gone, Thomas should have even more opportunities than he received last season to be the rock in New Orleans’ backfield. Reggie Bush will still get his touches, but I don’t think a 1,000-plus yard season out of Thomas is out of the question – especially now that he’s fully healthy heading into Week 1 (he wasn’t at the start of 2009).
The Final Word: The Saints certainly don’t come without their weaknesses, but this is still the team to beat in the NFC South. Their offense will once again rank near the top of the league by year’s end (barring injuries, of course) and Williams proved to be an outstanding game-planner last season. The run defense is a concern, as is Bushrod at left tackle. But Brees and company are going to light up the scoreboard again this year and even if the defense takes a step back, I don’t see the Saints relinquishing the division crown quite yet.

New Orleans Saints 2009 Question Mark: Interior Defense

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