We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first” and another “shoot-first.” Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone” while another “takes care of the ball.” But really, what makes a player a “pass-first” point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone”?

I first tackled this subject two years ago, and settled on the shot-to-assist ratio to determine whether a player is “pass-first” or “shoot-first.” The higher the number, the more of a “shoot-first” player he is. To determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the number, the better the player is at taking care of the ball.

I narrowed the list of players to 33, one for each team plus a few extra for teams like Cleveland, Sacramento and Denver, who have a couple of players manning the position. I also added eight prospects (indicated in green) just to see where a few of the younger guys land. Here’s the graph — it’s small, but if you click it, you’ll get to a bigger version:

So the pass-first/shoot-first aspect goes left to right, and the turnover-prone players will be towards the bottom, while the guys that take really good care of the ball will be up top. Players indicated with a blue diamond are in the Top 10 in this group in Efficiency Per Minute. I set the axis for each category at the average of the 33 players in question, so 1.97 for FGA-to-assist and 2.70 assist-to-turnover.

Two years ago when I conducted this study, seven of the top 10 EPM performers were in the top left quadrant (pass-first, takes care of the ball). This year, only five of the top 11 (I included both Rondo and Calderon, since they tied for #11) are in that quadrant. This is due to the emergence of three shoot-first, (fairly) turnover-prone guards who are emerging as stars: Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry.

A few takeaways:

Ty Lawson looks like a star. He is #13 in this group in EPM, so if he can continue to post big numbers in bigger minutes he’s poised to join the Top 10 sometime soon.

Kyle Lowry isn’t too far behind him. It’s not clear if Houston has decided that Lowry is their point guard of the future, but he is #16 in EPM and is well above average in assist-to-turnover ratio.

Brandon Jennings can still become a Top 10 point guard. Two years ago, I would have said that Jennings would have to drastically change his game to join the elite group of point guards, but with the way Rose, Westbrook and Curry have emerged, he can continue to be himself. One thing I’ve noticed with his game is that he has a tough time finishing around the hoop when he gets bumped, which is something that Westbrook and Rose excel at. Jennings needs to master the floater — that way, he can use his quickness to get into the lane pretty much any time he wants, and then get his shot off without taking a big hit.

Roddy Beaubois is an interesting prospect, but it’s doubtful he’s going to be a quality starter in this league… unless he changes his game to become more of a distributor. He doesn’t need to turn into Jason Kidd, but right now he’s an outlier so he needs to take better care of the ball and create a few more opportunities for teammates. You may notice that Tyreke Evans is very close to Beaubois, but he really needs to play shooting guard.

If John Wall can take care of the ball, he’ll be right there with Deron Williams. For a rookie, Wall’s numbers look great. Sure, he’s a little turnover prone, but no worse that Westbrook, Billups, Collison or Curry. He’s a playmaker, so once he cuts back on the turnovers, his assist-to-turnover ratio really has a chance to skyrocket. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s up in the area of Maynor and Lowry with a blue diamond next to his name in a couple of seasons.

We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first” and another “shoot-first.” Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone” while another “takes care of the ball.” But really, what makes a player a “pass-first” point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone”?

Taking an analytical approach to these questions, I decided to bust out an Excel spreadsheet and try to come up with some answers. Below you’ll see a graph that attempts to classify the top point guards in the league. But first, a little background…

I chose to categorize each player based on two stats. First, to determine if he’s “shoot-first” or “pass-first,” I calculated the shot-to-assist ratio for each player. The bigger the number, the more of a “shoot-first” mentality the player has. Second, to determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. I thought about using turnovers per 48 minutes, but I like the idea of including assists so that playmakers are rewarded for the positive as well as the negative. Next, I calculated each player’s Efficiency Per Minute (EPM) to see if there is any correlation between these other statistics and the overall efficiency of the player in question.

The last step was to plot each player based on the two ratios. The graph is a little small, but if you click it, it will take you to a larger version.

Each player is indicated by a separate plot point with his name next to it. (Duh.) The blue diamonds represent the top 10 point guards in terms of EPM. One point guard was chosen per team. Usually, I went with the player that got the most starts at the position.

The further the player is to the right on the (horizontal) x-axis the higher his shot-to-assist ratio and the more of a “shoot-first” mentality he has. Conversely, the further the player is to the left, the more of a “pass-first” point guard he is.

On the (vertical) y-axis, the further the player is towards the top, the better job he does of taking care of the ball (in comparison to the number of assists he posts). Players towards the bottom of the axis have poor assist-to-turnover ratios.

Each axis is set at the average of the 30 players included in the study. The shot-to-assist ratio average is 2.12, while the average assist-to-turnover ratio is 2.66.

A few interesting things to note…

As a whole, the data set takes on a downward slope. Intuitively, this makes sense. “Shoot-first” point guards are generally that way because that is their strength – scoring the ball. They are generally not as adept at being in the playmaker role, so they won’t have a good assist-to-turnover ratio. Conversely, players that are “pass-first” are that way because playmaking is their specialty. They handle the ball well and have good vision.

The sweet spot is in the second (top-left) quadrant. Seven of the top EPM performers at the position – Jose Calderon, Jason Kidd, Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, Deron Williams, Steve Nash and Chauncey Billups – all have a better-than-average assist-to-turnover ratio and a “pass-first” menality. The other three top 10 EPM performers – Jameer Nelson, Tony Parker and Devin Harris – are reasonably close to that top-left quadrant. The 10 point guards in the top-left quadrant play for teams that had a combined record of 471-349 (.574) in the regular season and seven of those teams made the playoffs. These facts are telling.

Jameer Nelson and Tony Parker aren’t in the ideal quadrant, but they are a good fit for their teams. Think about it – Nelson and Parker play with two of the best big men in the game in Dwight Howard and Tim Duncan. Point guards that play with a great big man will find that assists are a little tougher to come by. Typically, when someone feeds Howard or Duncan, they take their time in the post before they make their move, so the player that passed them the ball doesn’t necessarily get the assist. Plus, anyone can feed the post – it doesn’t have to be the point guard. Think about those seven players in the top-left quadrant for a moment. For the most part, they play with jump shooters (and are therefore more likely to rack up assists).

The Magic are built in the Hakeem Olajuwon-era Rockets mold. They have a dominant big man and the idea is to surround him with great jumpshooters to keep defenses honest. Conversely, Parker oftentimes takes advantage of the amount of attention that defenses pay to Duncan to get to the rim. When he attacks the hole, he’s trying to score and will only pass if the defense forces him to.

Finally, it’s no coincidence that Nelson and Parker are two of the most efficient scorers in this study. In terms of FG%, Parker is first and Nelson is tied for third. Both players shoot better than 50% from the field, so it makes sense that they’d have a “shoot-first” mentality.

Ramon Sessions is a keeper. Luke Ridnour got more starts than Sessions, but I like Sessions more and the Bucks have to decide whether or not to sign the up-and-coming point guard to an extension this summer. Here’s my pitch: He has the #11 EPM (just behind Chauncey Billups) and is on the verge of becoming a very good point guard. His Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 17.65 is #13 amongst qualified PGs. Throw in the fact that the NBA is becoming increasingly dependent on good point guard play, and the 23-year-old looks like a great (and relatively cheap) prospect. GM John Hammond has to find a way to keep this kid.

Baron Davis isn’t a “shoot-first” point guard?!? Apparently not. His career shot-to-assist ratio is 2.05, so even when we consider his entire body of work, he’s still leans “pass-first.” This is underlined by his 2008-09 campaign, where he was even more “pass-first.”

Derrick Rose turns the ball over too much. I hadn’t yet looked at his numbers, but I could tell this about Rose just watching the Bulls/Celtics series. Every so often he throws a pass that might have made it in college, but isn’t going to make it in the NBA. Most rookie point guards struggle with this, so I’d assume that Rose will start to work his way into that top-left quadrant (or at least the top-right quadrant) in the next year or two. In fact, his assist-to-turnover ratio rose from 2.52 before the All-Star break to 2.56 after. I think he’ll eventually settle in somewhere near Nelson and Parker. He seems like more of a scorer than a pure playmaker, partly do to his incredible ability to finish at the rim.

Where would a healthy Gilbert Arenas fit in? Remember him? Agent Zero has only played 15 games in the last two years, so it’s not really fair to judge him based on those numbers. To get an idea of where he’d land, I calculated his ratios for the 2006-07 season. You’ll find him bunched with Jamal Crawford, Mo Williams, Randy Foye and Aaron Brooks in the bottom-right quadrant, which makes sense because those are all “shoot-first” point guards.

Is Mo Williams’ position on the chart due to his playing with LeBron? After plotting Arenas, it made me wonder about Mo. He was one of the top assist men in the league in his last year in Milwaukee. How does the 2007-08 Mo Williams compare with the 2008-09 version? It turns out that the ’07 version of Mo Williams is a lot like the ’08 Devin Harris, which makes sense considering that both players are very capable scorers and playmakers, but at heart are “shoot-first.”

CONCLUSION

I think the big thing to take away from this is that it’s generally better to have a “pass-first” point guard who takes care of the ball. However, if you have a dominant big man (or a superstar wing like LeBron or Kobe), a “shoot-first” point guard can be just as effective, especially if he can shoot it like Nelson or Williams, or get to the rim like Parker does.

Is there anything that I missed?

Bosh’s contract runs through the 2009-10 season, so he is one of the members of the vaunted free agent class of 2010. Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo is no dummy, so his first step will be to try to convince Bosh to stay. If that fails, there’s a chance that the team could move him before the trade deadline, which is about three weeks away. They should be able to get more for Bosh now than during the offseason since whatever team trading for him will have his services for the remainder of this season and the playoffs.

Smith mentioned the Heat and the Mavericks as possible trade partners. Miami’s major trading chip is Shawn Marion, but he’s in the final year of his contract and most of the league seems to be unwilling to pay him what they believe he is going to ask this summer. For that reason, trading for the Matrix is a dicey proposition. In Dallas, Josh Howard would presumably be the centerpiece of a deal for Bosh, though he has now stated publicly that he wants to stay in Dallas.

One team that should put a trade offer together is the Cleveland Cavaliers. They do have Wally Szczerbiak’s expiring contract ($13 M), so the Raptors could get immediate salary cap relief. They could package Wally’s contract with J.J. Hickson and two or three future first round picks and see if the Raptors bite. It would be a heck of a lot easier to re-sign LeBron if Bosh were already in Cleveland.

I’d also like to see the Bucks make a play for the talented power forward. Would the Raptors take Michael Redd and Charlie Villanueva for Bosh? I realize that Bosh would be unlikely to re-sign unless the Bucks vaulted into the top four in the East, but with a starting lineup of Ramon Sessions, Charlie Bell, Richard Jefferson, Bosh and Andrew Bogut, that would be one of the better teams in the East.

I really don’t know what happened to the Raptors. After re-signing Jose Calderon to a long-term deal, acquiring Jermaine O’Neal to help down low, and the emergence of Andrea Bargnani as a legitimate scorer, the Raptors should be a lot better than they are. They’ve already lost two in a row and they have the Lakers, Cavs and Hornets coming up in a brutal three-game stretch. And now the news breaks that their franchise player doesn’t want to return.

Things are bad in Toronto.

2/2 Update: Bryan Colangelo says the rumors about Bosh not wanting to re-sign with Toronto are untrue.

“It isn’t true,” said Colangelo. “It’s a complete fabrication.”

“It’s a non-story. Stephen A. got a little carried away. I’ve e-mailed him to talk about it but he’s in bed with the flu. Maybe the basketball Gods have something to do with that. I don’t know where that story came from.”

It will be interesting to see what Smith has to say about this. He didn’t cite a source or act like he was breaking a story; he just said that Bosh has already told the team he doesn’t want to return as if it were common knowledge. I’d like to see Smith defend himself here.

2/3 Update: Chris Bosh speaks out about the story.

The NBA All-Star Game is part meritocracy and part popularity contest. First, the fans vote, and the top five vote getters – two guards, two forwards and a center – from each conference are the starters. Then the coaches vote on the remaining seven reserves for each team.

The current vote count can be seen here, but I thought I’d put together my own list – five starters and seven reserves – for each team. To me, when it comes to naming All-Stars a winning record is just as important as great stats, so given two players with similar numbers, I’m probably going to give the nod to the guy on the better team. I’ll list the player’s Player Efficiency Rating, which gives a nice overview of the guy’s per-minute statistical production this season.

And off we go…

EASTERN CONFERENCE STARTERS

Dwyane Wade, Heat
PER: 29.14
D-Wade is back with a vengeance. He’s averaging 29.0 points, 7.1 assists and 5.1 rebounds, and is (almost) single-handedly keeping the Heat in the playoff hunt. With 24% accuracy, I don’t know why he’s shooting so many threes (3.0 per game), but that’s just nitpicking. He’s third in the league in steals (2.25).

Joe Johnson, Hawks
PER: 19.84
JJ is averaging 22.3 points, 6.1 assists and 4.6 rebounds, and has the Hawks in a battle for the #4 spot in the East. His three-point shooting is down two points, but his overall FG% is up a point. Remember when everyone laughed at the Hawks for giving up future MIP Boris Diaw and two first round picks for him?

LeBron James, Cavs
PER: 32.04
LeBron is the front-runner for the MVP thus far. He’s posting 27.7 points, 6.6 assists and 6.6 rebounds a game. His numbers are down, but that’s because the Cavs can afford to rest him an additional four minutes per game. It’s great to see his FG% over 50% (50.8%) and FT% approaching 80% (78.8%). LeBron has always been a statistical stud, but it’s the Cavs’ stellar record that has him leading the MVP race.

Kevin Garnett, Celtics
PER: 20.87
KG’s scoring is down, but given the Raptors’ struggles, he’s still the most deserving PF (over Chris Bosh) in the East. His numbers are virtually identical to last season other than a mysterious drop in free throw attempts per game (-2.1). Is KG still taking the ball to the hole?

Dwight Howard, Magic
PER: 25.71
I’d like to see Howard’s free throw accuracy (57.3%) improve, but it’s hard to argue with Orlando’s success this season. Howard is averaging 20.1 points and leads the league in rebounding with 13.8 per game. He also leads the league in blocks (3.28).

EASTERN CONFERENCE RESERVES

Devin Harris, Nets
PER: 24.88
From a statistical standpoint, Harris is outplaying all other Eastern Conference guards save for Dwyane Wade, so he is deserving of a spot in the starting lineup. However, Joe Johnson’s Hawks are playing quite a bit better, so Harris will have to settle for a spot on the bench.

Chris Bosh, Raptors
PER: 23.37
The Raptors are struggling this season but it’s not the fault of Bosh, whose numbers are virtually identical to last season. He has averaged at least 22.3 points and 8.7 rebounds in each of the last four years.

Paul Pierce, Celtics
PER: 18.32
Despite the Celtics recent struggles, The Truth is still a no-brainer All-Star pick. He’s averaging 19.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.7 assists and while his FG% is down a smidgen, he’s over 40% from long range for the first time since the 2001-02 season.

Danny Granger, Pacers
PER: 21.93
Granger is clearly one of the league’s best young small forwards. He’s averaging 26.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists, while shooting a solid 46% from the field. The Pacers aren’t great, but they’re competitive, and Granger is the main reason why. Moreover, he’s averaging an eye-popping 33.3 points per game in January.

Tayshaun Prince, Pistons
PER: 16.37
The Pistons have the fifth-best record in the East right now and deserve to have a player on the All-Star team. Prince’s numbers aren’t eye-popping, but he averages 7.3 points per game and contributes in all areas despite having to cover the opponent’s best perimeter player every night.

Jameer Nelson, Magic
PER: 19.91
Given that Orlando has virtually the same personnel as last season, it’s a bit of a surprise at how much better Nelson is playing. His ppg jumped from 10.9 to 16.4 and his FG% jumped from 46.9% to 50.4%, which is tremendous for a guard. His three-point shooting (43.8%) is outstanding. Rashard Lewis (PER: 18.05) may get the nod, but I think Nelson is more deserving.

Vince Carter, Nets
PER: 21.89
I’m not a huge fan of Vinsanity, but he’s averaging 22.7 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.9 assists while shooting better than 40% from long range. Truthfully, this spot could go to a number of guys from better teams – Rajon Rondo, Mo Williams, Allen Iverson, Mike Bibby, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Rashard Lewis – but Carter smokes them all numbers-wise.

Bubbling under: Rajon Rondo, Mo Williams, Allen Iverson, Caron Butler, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Mike Bibby, Jose Calderon, Rashard Lewis

WESTERN CONFERENCE STARTERS

Chris Paul, Hornets
PER: 30.53
After a rough 5-5 start, Paul has the Hornets back in the thick of the hunt for the #2 playoff spot in the West. He has the second-highest PER in the league and is averaging 20.4 points and 11.3 assists per game. He also leads the league in steals (2.82) and is on the short list of serious MVP candidates.

Kobe Bryant, Lakers
PER: 25.48
Kobe’s minutes are down 3.0 per game, which explains why his numbers have taken a bit of a dip. Still, he’s averaging 27.0 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists, and his FG% is up over 48% for the first time in his career. The Lakers have the best record in the West and Kobe would be favored to win his second consecutive MVP if not for the Cavs’ winning ways.

Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks
PER: 23.78
If Carmelo Anthony hadn’t gotten injured, he might have earned this spot, but Dirk’s Mavs are just three games back of the Nuggets in the standings and he’s having another great season. He is averaging 25.3 points and 8.4 rebounds, and is shooting better than 40% from the field.

Tim Duncan, Spurs
PER: 24.33
Two words: sustained excellence. TD is averaging 20.4 points and 10.1 rebounds while shooting almost 52% from the field. Plus, he’s one of the best (if not the best) defensive big men in the game.

Yao Ming, Rockets
PER: 22.67
Yao has had to play without Tracy McGrady for a good portion of the season, but the Rockets are right in the thick of the playoff hunt in the West. He leads the Rockets in scoring, rebounding, blocks and is shooting almost 87% from the free throw line.

WESTERN CONFERENCE RESERVES

Brandon Roy, Blazers
PER: 25.06
Roy’s scoring is up to 22.8 points per game this season (from 19.1 ppg last season) in no small part due to his increased accuracy (+2.1%) from the field. The Blazers look like a playoff team and Roy is a big reason why.

Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets
PER: 18.18
‘Melo’s Nuggets are playing well even though his FG% has taken a dive to 43.7% this season. His scoring is down, but he’s rebounding well (7.3) and his three-point accuracy is up to 42%, which is a huge improvement.

Tony Parker, Spurs
PER: 23.23
Parker is setting career highs in points (21.3) and assists (6.7), he’s never been more accurate from long range (40.0%) or from the charity stripe (81.5%). Manu Ginobili has been solid, but Parker is the second-most deserving Spur this season.

Pau Gasol, Lakers
PER: 22.49
Despite the return of Andrew Bynum, Gasol’s rebounding (9.4) as well as he ever has, and he’s continuing to thrive in his role as Kobe’s sidekick. He’s averaging 17.8 points and is shooting over 55% from the field.

Amare Stoudemire, Suns
PER: 22.44
Stoudemire is averaging 21.8 points and 8.5 rebounds, and is shooting almost 55% from the field. Even though the Suns have slowed the pace down, Stoudemire’s numbers are still stellar.

Chauncey Billups, Nuggets
PER: 20.98
Billups is averaging 18.7 points and 6.8 assists for the Nuggets, but more importantly he has brought a defensive culture to Denver (and that’s not easy to do).

Shaquille O’Neal, Suns
PER: 23.75
A revitalized Shaq is producing 17.4 points and 9.0 rebounds in just 30.1 minutes. There are a number of players that could replace him on the All-Star team, but I think everyone around the league recognizes just how good Shaq is when he’s motivated.

Bubbling under: Manu Ginobili, Al Jefferson, David West, Paul Millsap, LaMarcus Aldridge, Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko, Mehmet Okur

Voting continues at NBA.com through January 19th.

1/22/09 Update: The starters have been announced.

This type of interaction always starts somewhere, and my guess is that Calderon did something to piss KG off earlier in the game, and it just escalated from there.

Here are six players that have a great shot to break out. These guys aren’t rookies; but they’re all relatively young and for whatever reason, they just haven’t reached their potential. I’ve ranked them in the order of just how certain I am that they’ll break out this season.

1. Jose Calderon, Raptors
Calderon was the #4 PG last season in terms of PER, but he posted great numbers while T.J. Ford was out, which prompted the Raptors to trade Ford to the Pacers for Jermaine O’Neal. In 56 games as the starter, Calderon averaged 13.0 points, 9.1 assists, 3.2 rebounds and 1.2 steals. He’ll probably see 35-38 minutes per game this year, so those numbers are probably a baseline. On the season, he shot 52% from the field, 43% from 3PT and 91% from the charity stripe, making him one of the most efficient shooters in the league. Moreover, he’s just 27 years old and the Raptors wisely locked him up with a five-year deal worth $43 million, which might seem like a bargain in a year or two. Since he’s Spanish and plays for the Raptors, he’ll probably still be ignored. What a shame.

2. Devin Harris, Nets
Before his trade to the Nets, Harris already had something of a breakout season with the Mavs, averaging 14.4 points and 5.3 assists per game. In 25 games with the Nets, he averaged 15.4 points and 6.5 assists. After the trade, his shooting percentage dipped, so if he can get that back up to his career 47% mark, a 17/7 season is not out of the question. Harris is lightning quick – especially for someone that’s 6’3” – and he has an improving jumper. (He shot the ball well while at Wisconsin, but seemed to lose that touch a bit once he hit the NBA.) His numbers could jump even more if the team is able to trade Vince Carter. Do you think the Mark Cuban will regret the trade after he pays Jason Kidd $21.3 million to shoot 39% from the field resulting in a first-round playoff exit for the Mavs? Me too. Harris is one of the young pieces that the Nets will use to try to lure LeBron James to Brooklyn in the summer of 2010, and the Mavs never should have traded him away.

3. David Lee, Knicks
Last season, Lee finished ahead of bigger names like Emeka Okafor, Lamar Odom and Rashard Lewis in terms of PER, and now that Mike D’Antoni is in town, I fully expect Lee’s minutes to increase from the 29.1 he got last season (Isiah, what were you thinking?) to something in the 35- to 37-minute range. He averaged 10.8 points and 8.9 rebounds on the season, but in 27 games as a starting forward, he averaged 12.9 points and 10.0 rebounds in 33.1 minutes per game. (I’ll ask again – Isiah, what were you thinking?) His hard-nosed, energetic play fits D’Antoni’s style, and while he’s due for an extension next season, the Knicks have so many bad contracts that they might have to include Lee just to get a fresh start. The key will be for the Knicks to find a taker for Zach Randolph and the $33 million he coming to him over the next two seasons. Eddy Curry’s contract isn’t quite as bad, so if the Knicks can get out from under Randolph’s, they may be able to hold onto Lee.

4. Thaddeus Young, 76ers
In terms of PER, Young was the #18 small forward in his rookie season, finishing just behind Danny Granger and ahead of Tayshaun Prince. That is impressive company, especially for a first-year player. He averaged just 8.2 points and 4.2 rebounds on the season, but in 22 games as a starter, he posted 10.6 points and 5.0 rebounds in 29.1 minutes. But what was most impressive was his 55% shooting as a starter. Elton Brand’s arrival should free Young up to make more plays. Expect Young to average 12-15 points and 5-7 rebounds per game.

5. Randy Foye, Timberwolves
Foye isn’t a pure point guard, but he can play the position. In 31 games as a starter, he averaged 14.3 points and 4.8 assists even though he was coming off of a “stress reaction” injury in his kneecap. Now that he’s had an offseason to recover, he should get off to a fast start this season. He’s very solid from long-range (41%) and the free throw line (82%) and doesn’t seem to have any major holes in his game. Along with Mike Miller, the duo will make for a sharp-shooting backcourt that will keep opposing guards from double-teaming Al Jefferson. GM Kevin McHale hasn’t done a whole lot right over the past few years, but Foye was a pretty good get.

6. Mike Conley, Grizzlies
He had trouble shooting the ball (43%) in his rookie season, but he missed time due to shoulder and rib injuries, so we should probably cut him some slack. The Grizzlies drafted him to be the point guard of the future, so he should get lots of opportunity to prove he’s the guy this season. The Grizzlies want to run, and with O.J. Mayo on one wing and Rudy Gay on the other, they could be an exciting team to watch with the super-quick Conley running the show.