So you still want to draft a running back with your number one pick after we crunched the numbers to find that quarterbacks have become equally or more valuable in fantasy football? Well, I can’t blame anyone that goes the traditional route here, especially with guys like Michael Turner and Adrian Peterson looking like legitimate #1 picks. Here are last season’s Top 10 running backs in fantasy points, keeping in mind that this is based on my league, and stats vary from league to league:
1. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers—I know some players take a few years to develop, but I live in Tennessee and saw Williams play on TV a lot when he was with Memphis. I drafted him in 2006 because I knew what not everyone knew—his upside was tremendous. Of course, he had 501 yards and a TD that year. But once DeShaun Foster was gone, Williams exploded, and last year racked up 1639 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns. Potential realized, and there’s more where that came from despite Jonathan Stewart sharing the load.
2. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons—Turner “The Burner” finally got out from under LT’s shadow in San Diego and showed with his new team that he can be a #1 RB—in a big, big way. In fact, Turner out-rushed LT by almost 600 yards. Take that, AJ Smith.
3. Thomas Jones, New York Jets—Jones had a big year, with 1519 total yards and 15 scores. But something tells me to expect a substantial drop-off this year. I mean, this is the same guy who scored 1 rushing TD in 2007.
4. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears—A rookie in 2008, Forte was a pleasant surprise and was basically the Bears’ entire offense. Now they have Jay Cutler at QB, which could mean just a bit less focus on the running game. Still, it’s the Bears, and plus Forte is just as valuable a receiver as he is a runner. Don’t expect a re-run of 2008 (1715 yards and 12 total touchdowns) but don’t expect a crappy season either.
5. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings—He may be frequently injured but AP is about as explosive as any player in the NFL. In fact, he may be what everyone expected Reggie Bush to be. Who? Yeah, I know. Anyway, Peterson had 1885 all-purpose yards but only 10 TDs. This season, I’m looking for 2400 yards from scrimmage and 15-20 scores. I can feel it.
6. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles—Off-season surgery is either going to hamper Westbrook or make him better. I’ll still take a Brian Westbrook at 70% than, say, a Willis McGahee at 100%. When Westbook is on the field (1338 total yards, 54 catches, 14 total TDs in ‘08), he’s fantasy money.
7. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants—Jacobs seemed to perform best when he shared carries with Derrick Ward, who is now in Tampa. Jacobs will still share carries, but with Ahmad Bradshaw. Jacobs had his second straight 1000-yard season (Ward also topped 1000 yards) with 15 touchdowns, and there is no reason to believe he’ll fall short of that in ’09. Well, unless the injury bug bites again.
8. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers—I’m still sick about drafting LT #1 last season in my league. I know that having the top pick doesn’t happen too often, and this guy just killed my season and probably everyone else’s that picked him first or second.
I mean, 1536 yards from scrimmage and 12 scores is not bad, but consider LT’s 2006 season—2323 overall yards and 31 TDs. Last year, LT was more like Thomas Jones in a good year.
9. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars—Streaky yes, but a solid player who can run and catch passes effectively. MJD had 824 rushing yards, and 62 receptions for 565 with 14 total touchdowns. With Fred Taylor in New England, expect those numbers to jump this season.
10. LenDale White, Tennessee Titans—This guy was the touchdown bogart for Chris Johnson, with only 773 yards but 15 scores. Should we expect an encore? It’s hard to say, but Jeff Fisher is definitely a creature of habit.
Before I get to my Divisional Round Preview, I’d like to send all of the losers from Wild Card Weekend off the only way I know how: By jabbing them one final time.
Atlanta Falcons: Hey Mike Smith and Mike Mularkey, his name is Jerious Norwood. He’s #32 and he’s one of the best playmakers on your offense. Might want to think about using him more the next time an opposing defense figures out how to shut down Michael Turner.
Indianapolis Colts: Seven trips to the postseason in the last seven years and you only manage one Super Bowl appearance with a three-time MVP at quarterback? Dear Barbara…
Miami Dolphins: Chad, I love you man and I love your story this season. But you can’t force passes down field into double coverage and expect good things. You should have kept doing what you did all season and what you did in your first possession of the game – hit the high-percentage passes and let your receivers get the yardage.
Minnesota Vikings: Did anyone else scratch their head when Brad Childress declined a holding penalty on third down early in the first quarter that would have moved the Eagles on the edge of field goal range? Instead, it brought up forth down and David Akers drilled a 43-yarder to give Philly a 3-0 lead. Childress basically said, “I’m not sure if my defense can hold the Eagles on 3rd and 14 – better give up the field goal so we don’t give up a potential touchdown instead.” You never give your opponents points in the playoffs. Never. Not even a field goal. Force them back, force them to make a play and force them to earn the points.
Myself: I went 1-3 with my Wild Card Predictions last week. Seriously? You went with the Colts in the playoffs? A rookie in Matt Ryan? The Vikings over everyone’s sleeper team in the Eagles? You’re a freaking bum. (Ironically I went 3-1 in a family football pool because I came to my senses and picked San Diego and Philly.)
Moving on…
Baltimore Ravens (11-5) at Tennessee Titans (13-3) Saturday, January 10, 4:30PM ET Opening Odds: Titans –3 Over/Under: 34.5 Game Outlook:
No disrespect to the Giants and Eagles or any other team playing this weekend, but this is easily the best matchup on the divisional playoff schedule. Did you see what Ed Reed and the Ravens did to Chad Pennington and the Dolphins last week? They held them to only 276 total yards, forced five turnovers and surrendered only 52 rushing yards. And although they used a lot of gadget formations throughout the season, it’s not like Miami’s offense was a dud this year. Granted, the Titans have the seventh best rushing attack in the league and rookie Chris Johnson brings an added dimension to the field, but Mike Heimerdinger has his hands full this week trying to come up with a game plan to move the ball against a Baltimore defense allowing just over 15 points a game this season. That said, it’ll be interesting to see how rookie quarterback Joe Flacco does against the seventh best defense in the NFL. Flacco passed with flying colors last week while playing mistake-free and running for the game-clinching score in the fourth quarter. But he’ll have to do a hell of a lot more than complete 9 of 23 passes for 135 yards against a Tennessee defense that could have DT Albert Haynesworth and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch back on their defensive line. If both players are in the lineup Saturday, Flacco is going to feel the heat up the middle and from the edges so he better get rid of the ball in a timely manner. Overall, this is the best defensive matchup of the year and this game will probably come down to who doesn’t turn the ball over. X-Factor:Chris Johnson, Titans RB
The only time the Dolphins found success last week was when they used the Ravens’ aggressive style against them and slipped backs out in the flats. Pennington was able to hit Patrick Cobbs and company for seven to 10 yard gains and the Titans could employ the same method. Johnson is a homerun threat and more than capable of taking one to the house every play. Tennessee has to get the ball in this kid’s hands and force the Ravens to miss tackles in the open field, which they have the penchant for doing at times. Prediction:Titans 16, Ravens 13.
I’m not going to bite on this potential upset. The Ravens’ defense is absolutely nasty, but Flacco worries me against a ball-hawking Tennessee secondary and I think the Titans are going to shut down Baltimore’s running game. This game comes down to which team makes fewer mistakes and I’ll take a veteran in Kerry Collins over the rook Flacco. (Word to the wise though, Kerry – stay away from Ed Reed’s side if you can.)
NFL purists always say that teams with momentum heading into the postseason are always the most dangerous. Well after two impressive wins, their latest being a 30-10 victory over the Broncos on Sunday, the Carolina Panthers might be the most dangerous team in the NFC right now.
With all due respect to the New York Giants, Carolina has been the most impressive team in the NFC the last three weeks. In their last three games, the Panthers came back multiple times in a thrilling victory over the Packers at Lambeau Field, absolutely ran over the Buccaneers last Monday night and then handled Denver in convincing fashion on Sunday.
What has been the most impressive thing about Carolina the past three weeks is the way they’ve run the ball. Quarterback Jake Delhomme hasn’t necessarily been that impressive (Steve Smith has one again made Delhomme look better than he is), but he hasn’t needed to be because the running duo of DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart has been so good. Plus, the Panthers’ defense has really tightened things up again, just in time for the playoffs.
The Panthers still have a tough road ahead of them because they have to travel to the Giants and Saints the next two weeks. But they also have a two-game lead over the Bucs and Falcons in the NFC South, meaning they have to win just one of their two remaining games to clinch the division. It’ll be interesting to see if the Panthers can not only can claim the NFC South crown, but also win out and achieve home field advantage throughout the postseason.
The Titans’ LenDale White is a bit peeved that the Carolina Panthers’ backfield tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart might have stolen a nickname that White came up with to describe he and teammate Chris Johnson’s running style.
Apparently, LenDale White of the Titans crafted the term “Smash and Dash” for himself and Chris Johnson a few weeks ago. And then Monday night on ESPN, there were signs rooting for “Smash and Dash,” referring to the Panthers’ tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. From ESPN.com’s Paul Kuharsky:
“If they want a nickname, I can nickname them: ‘Identity and Theft,’” said White, who’s successfully paired with the speedy rookie Chris Johnson this season. “I was upset because I made that phrase up myself. I mean I made it up. I don’t know about NFL Network and all those other guys. I heard somebody say, ‘Batman and Robin,’ that’s like cute, that’s for them. If they want that name they can have it. The ‘Smash and Dash’ is something I made up.”
“Identity and Theft”? That is freaking hilarious! Between that and Terrell Owens’ “Dumb and Dumber” comment about Emmitt Smith and Keyshawn Johnson, there have been some outstanding athlete quotes this week.
Sunday’s Best:Panthers (4-1) at Buccaneers (3-2), 1:00 PM ET FOX
This isn’t the sexiest matchup on the Week 6 schedule, but it’s a battle for first place in the NFC South. Carolina is coming off a 34-0 rout of the Chiefs, a game in which they held Larry Johnson to only two yards rushing, while Tampa dropped a close one in Denver. The Panthers can thank a healthy Jake Delhomme and a stingy run defense for their hot start this season. With Delhomme back under center and a nice 1-2 punch of DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart in the backfield, the Panthers’ offense has been incredibly balanced this season and therefore, hard to stop. And Carolina’s front seven has kept opponents from averaging over 100 yards on the ground. The Bucs will go back to Jeff Garcia at quarterback with Brian Griese nursing an injured arm. It’ll be interesting to see if the Panthers take away Tampa’s 8th-best rushing attack, because the last time the Bucs couldn’t run the ball was against the Bears – a game in which Griese attempted 67 passes. Will Garcia have to do the same this week?
Upset Watch:Cowboys (4-1) at Cardinals (3-2), 4:15 PM ET FOX
I’m going right back to the well. In my primer last week, I warned to watch out for the Cards upsetting the previously unbeaten Bills. I’ll do the same this week as the Cowboys roll into the desert after almost blowing a 17-point lead to the Bengals last Sunday. Dallas has more talent than any other team in the NFC, but they’ve proven to be as fragile as T.O.’s emotions. Arizona flat out plays a different brand of football at home and could have wideout Anquan Boldin back this week, although it’s doubtful. Even without Boldin, the Cards have more than enough weapons to score on a Dallas defense that is giving up close to 23 points a game. The key obviously will be whether or not Arizona can stop the Cowboys’ high-powered offense. Dallas is racking up over 400 yards and 30 points a game and the Cards are just two games removed from surrendering 56 points to the Jets. Even if ‘Zona can’t pull off the upset, I would expect one wild shootout.
Intriguing Matchup:Patriots (3-1) at Chargers (2-3) 8:15 PM ET NBC
Remember when New England mocked Shawne Merriman’s “Lights Out” dance after a playoff win in San Diego a couple of years ago and hurt LaDainian Tomlinson’s feelings? The Pats return to the scene of the crime and no team plays with a bigger chip on their shoulder (and for really no reason) than the Chargers. Even though they won in convincing fashion against the 49ers last week, this is clearly a different Patriots team without Tom Brady. (What a statement, I know). It’ll be interesting to see if Matt Cassel can have a coming out party this weekend, because no team in the entire NFL is playing worse against the pass right now than San Diego.
Other Notable Games: Bears (3-2) at Falcons (3-2), 1:00 PM ET FOX
The last time rookie QB Matt Ryan faced the Tampa 2 defense he had his worst outing as a pro, throwing two interceptions in a loss to the Bucs in Week 2. He’ll get a chance for redemption this week against Chicago, a team that has typically owned Atlanta in the past.
Jaguars (2-3) at Broncos (4-1), 4:15 PM ET FOX
Big Ben and the Steelers lit up Jacksonville’s defense last week. Will Jay Cutler and the Broncos’ offense do the same on Sunday?
Ravens (2-2) at Colts (2-2), 1:00 PM ET CBS
Peyton Manning vs. Ray Lewis is always fun to watch.
The 2008 NFL Season is only a quarter of the way finished, but it already looks like it could be one of the craziest years in some time. And as if anyone needed a reason to tune in this year, I’ve gone ahead and listed 32 of them below.
In no particular order:
1. Parity still rules. Who would have thought that the Bills and Titans would have better records at this point than the Colts, Patriots and Jaguars?
2. The Giants. The G-Men are the best team in the league and nobody is talking about them.
3. Aaron Rodgers is holding his own. The Packers have dropped three straight after starting the year 2-0, but that’s hardly Rodgers’ fault. The young man has gone through a lot this year and he continues to impress, including playing with an injured shoulder and throwing nine touchdown passes in five games.
4. The Colts 17-point fourth quarter comeback against the Texans in Week 5.
5. Preseason predictions still mean nothing. There’s no greater feeling than checking out who the pundits predict will be the best teams in the NFL in preseason…then realizing how wrong they were after the first couple weeks of the season.
6. Jason Campbell’s development. People in the know say that it usually takes a quarterback 2-3 years to fully learn the West Coast Offense but so far this year, Campbell has thrown for over 1,000 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions. And oh-by-the-way, he also has the Redskins at 4-1. First-year head coach Jim Zorn has done a remarkable job in Washington so far.
7. The Titans. There’s not a defense in the league that has been more clutch late in games than Tennessee has.
8. Ronnie Brown. No offense to Ricky Williams, but it’s nice to see that the guy who didn’t quit on the game because he wanted more time to smoke weed is having more success than the guy who did.
9. The balance of power is starting to shift between the two conferences. The AFC has long dominated the NFC in terms of teams and quality of play, but so far this year those roles have been reversed. Four of the top five or six teams in the league belong to the NFC.
10. Brett Favre. Through five weeks, no signal caller in the league has a better QB rating than Favre. And his six-touchdown performance against the Cardinals in Week 4 was vintage Brett.
11. Baltimore’s defense. They might be aging unit, but Ray Lewis and Co. can still lay the wood can’t they?
12. Rookie quarterbacks playing well. Matt Ryan just went into Lambeau and knocked off the Packers, while Joe Flacco almost pulled off upsets against top defenses in Pittsburgh and against Tennessee. These first round signal callers have been impressive to say the least.
13. Adrian Peterson. Forget the sophomore slump – the 2007 Offensive Rookie of the Year is proving that he’s no fluke.
14. The Bears finally have a quarterback. Kyle Orton is nowhere close to being the best quarterback in the league, but watch him play – he has a little gunslinger mentality in him. And hey, he’s no Rex Grossman, which is a great thing (just ask Bear fans).
15. Kurt Warner. Some groaned when the veteran unseated youngster Matt Leinart in preseason, but so far head coach Ken Whisenhunt’s decision to go with Warner has paid off.
16. The Dolphins. They might be all hype right now, but who cares? The Fins’ fan base saw only one win last year – let them enjoy the ride.
17. Ben Roethlisberger’s toughness. This is arguably the worst offensive line the Steelers have produced in years, yet Big Ben continues to show how underrated he really is. His performance against Jacksonville in Week 5 was simply amazing.
18. The Bills. It’s easy to pull for a young team and most of their wins this year have been nail bitters. Hopefully QB Trent Edwards is okay from the hit he took against Arizona last Sunday and he’ll get back on the field soon.
19. The young Titans’ secondary. Cortland Finnegan and Michael Griffin share the league lead for interceptions. And they play in the same defensive backfield.
20. Marty Booker’s catch against the Lions.
21. Jay Cutler. The kid is cocky but it’s hard not to like his swagger.
22. Michael Turner’s running style.
23. Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. The Packers’ wideouts are just two example of why teams don’t need to spend first round picks on receivers.
24. Fresh starts in Oakland, Detroit and St. Louis. Yes these three franchises are a mess. But maybe there is a silver lining now that Lane Kiffin, Matt Millen and Scott Linehan all received their walking papers. Maybe…
25. Eli Manning. The former first overall pick is proving that last year’s postseason performance wasn’t a fluke and he really has taken the next step as a NFL quarterback.
26. The Panthers. Jake Delhomme is healthy and playing well again, rookie Jonathan Stewart has been a great complement to DeAngelo Williams and the run defense has been fantastic so far. Carolina is a legitimate contender in the NFC.
27. Monte Kiffin’s defense. The Bucs don’t even rank in the top 10 in any major defensive category except for points allowed, but ask Matt Ryan, Kyle Orton and Aaron Rodgers if they would want to face Kiffin’s unit on a weekly basis.
28. The Patriots are still finding ways to win. It hasn’t been pretty, but Bill Belichick and New England are still finding ways to win despite not having Tom Brady under center. Even after being blown out by Miami at home in Week 3, the Pats are still a team to watch out for in the AFC.
29. Reggie Bush. He might not be able to run consistently between the tackles but he sure as hell can run outside of them.
30. Terrell Owens…when he shuts up and just plays. And Tony Romo…when he can hang on to the football.
31. The Bengals. For providing the casual football fan with plenty of entertainment off the field.
32. Al Davis. For providing the casual football fan with plenty of entertainment off the filed.
Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or LaDainian Tomlinson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and start them. I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Ben Roethlisberger, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.
START ‘EM
QB: Eli Manning (@ STL) has an excellent matchup with a Rams defense that allowed Donovan McNabb to throw for 361 yards and three TD last week. Also, Manning played better away from home last year, so the table is set for a very nice day…Phillip Rivers (@ DEN) has an interesting matchup against the Broncos, who looked great last week, but struggled against the pass last season. Rivers had a nice game in Week 1 against the Panthers, and he’ll probably have to throw the ball a lot to keep up with a dynamic Denver offense…Kurt Warner (vs. MIA) has a great matchup against a historically bad Dolphin defense that allowed 194 passing yards and two TD to Brett Favre and the Jets last week. Warner should be in for a nice day…Aaron Rodgers (@ DET) looked great on Monday night and faces a suspect Lions defense…For the desperate, Kerry Collins (@ CIN) has a great matchup with a Bengals secondary that has struggled to stop the pass over the last several years…For the super-desperate Joe Flacco (@ HOU) has a nice matchup as well.
RB: If Willis McGahee is out, Ray Rice (@ HOU) has a good matchup with a Texans defense that allowed a ton of yards to Willie Parker last week. If McGahee plays, we’re probably looking a split, which will hurt the value of both players…If Ryan Grant (@ DET) ends up playing, make sure he’s in your lineup (unless you have a far better option). The Lions gave up 220 rushing yards to Michael Turner and the Packers should find success in the ground game as well…Brandon Jacobs (@ STL) should find lots of running room against a bad Rams defense…Frank Gore (@ SEA), Willie Parker (@ CLE) and Marshawn Lynch (@ JAX) should have nice games as well.
WR: Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles (vs. NE) are good starts against a Pats defense that is struggling at CB…Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward (@ CLE) should be in your lineup since they face the Browns, who have been bad against he pass for the last few seasons…Make room in your lineup for Joey Galloway (vs. ATL) who has a good matchup with a suspect Falcons pass defense…Santana Moss (vs. NO) has a nice matchup with a Saints defense that gave up some points to a conservative Bucs offense last week.
SIT ‘EM
QB: David Garrard (vs. BUF) struggled last week and a hot Bills defense (that shut down Matt Hasselbeck and the Seattle offense) is coming to town…In the same game, Trent Edwards (@ JAX) doesn’t have a good matchup against a solid Jacskonville defense…Baltimore did a great job shutting down the Bengals’ high-octane passing game, and that doesn’t bode well for Matt Schaub (vs. BAL) and the rest of the Texans. I’d bench Schaub only if I had a solid option to go with.
RB: Jamal Lewis (vs. PIT) may find the running room is tough to find when he faces a good Steelers defense. He’s startable, but I’m not optimistic about his chances…Steve Slaton (vs. BAL) looks like he will get the start, but he faces a very tough Ravens defense. Bench him unless you are desperate…Neither DeAngelo Williams nor Jonathan Stewart are particularly good starts against a Chicago defense that is normally very stout against he run.
WR: Lee Evans (@ JAX) is startable, but I’m not optimistic about his chances against a good Jacksonville defense stinging from a loss against the Titans last week…Bernard Berrian and Sydney Rice (vs. IND) should probably be benched against a feisty Colts team that lost in Week 1. Adrian Peterson figures to have the most success against Indy.
DTBWW
Looking for a good defense to plug into your lineup this week? Welcome to the world of Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW). Here are my picks for this week. (All teams are available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.)
ARI (vs. MIA), KC (vs. OAK), HOU (vs. BAL) and OAK (@ KC)
Adrian Peterson certainly made it easy on voters last year. After rushing for 1,341 yards, 12 touchdowns and a 5.6-yard per carry average, Peterson was an easy choice for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
So who is this year’s Adrian Peterson? Despite popular belief, the OROY doesn’t have to lead his team to the playoffs, as Peterson proved last year. He just has to stand out from the rest of the pack – easy, right?
Below is a look at the OROY candidates for the 2008 NFL Season. I’ve ranked the top 10 candidates based on their chances along with reasons why (and why they won’t) win the award.
1. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Ryan earned the starting quarterback job after a solid preseason, including completing 15 of 21 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons’ 17-3 win over Tennessee. Forget the huge contract and the fact that Atlanta wants to erase the thought of Michael Vick – Ryan can play. He looked comfortable, poised and completely in control running the Falcons’ offense and has enough weapons in Michael Turner, Jerious Norwood and Roddy White to be effective. As long as the offensive line gives him protection like it did this preseason, Ryan might be the best bet to win OROY honors. It also doesn’t hurt that he plays the quarterback position and will likely receive a ton of media attention.
2. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers
Stewart has run very well so far in preseason. He rushed 10 times for 100 yards in the Panthers’ third exhibition game and even had a fantastic 50-yard touchdown run that highlighted both his power and breakaway speed. Defenses contained Carolina’s ground attack last year, but that was largely due to ineffective quarterback play. Teams knew that the Panthers were going to try and run the football and often played with eight men in the box. But now that QB Jake Delhomme is healthy again, the Panthers’ offense should be more balanced and thus defenses will have to respect both the run and the pass. He’ll split time with DeAngelo Williams, but Stewart is going to get plenty of opportunities to make plays this season. Not only that, but he looks like a solid overall player.
3. Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears
The Bears parted with twinkle-toes Cedric Benson this offseason after multiple off-field incidents. The team drafted Forte in the second round and after Benson was released, and the rookie immediately became the starter. Forte has good size, runs hard between the tackles and shows some decent burst when he gets into the open field. But Chicago’s line has to hold up. Center Olin Kreutz, right guard Roberto Garza and right tackle John St. Clair are all decent run blockers, but there are major question marks on the left side of the line. Even so, Forte is going to have plenty of opportunities to make plays this season, especially if backup Kevin Jones can’t stay healthy.
In the realm of fantasy football, using early picks on rookies is usually a dicey proposition. It’s not often that a rookie comes into the league and is able to quickly establish fantasy relevance, though a few players do break through every season. Typically, a few running backs make an immediate impact, as that is the easiest position to transition to from college. In 2007, Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch were drafted for the sole purpose of taking over their team’s running game, and they both went on to have successful seasons. Even an undrafted rookie like Ryan Grant can have an impact if he finds the right situation. (I was lucky enough to snatch him off the waiver wire before he went on his 10-game train ride to fantasy stardom. I went on to win the title in that league despite disappointing performances from two of my keepers – Shaun Alexander and Marvin Harrison.)
Last year’s wide receiver crop was a bit thinner. Dwayne Bowe was the top rookie, finishing in the top 20 in most scoring formats. This was an upset considering all the fantasy owners that were drooling over Calvin Johnson’s intangibles before the season started. James Jones and Anthony Gonzalez flirted with fantasy relevance, but otherwise rookie wideouts didn’t make much of an impact in 2007. But every year, it seems like there’s one or two that become starter-worthy. (Who can forget Marques Colston’s 2006 campagin?)
So let’s take a look at this year’s top fantasy rookies and see who’s likely to make an impact.
RUNNING BACKS
1. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (pictured)
Stewart is a power back and that’s the Panthers’ style. DeAngelo Williams has been something of a disappointment, so if Stewart runs well during the rest of the preseason, it’s not inconceivable that he could earn a starting role. However, durability is a concern with Stewart, so it is more likely that the Panthers will split carries to keep him fresh and injury-free.
2. Darren McFadden, Raiders
Due to his combination of strength and speed, some compare the #4 overall pick to Adrian Peterson. McFadden joins Justin Fargas and Michael Bush in the Raider backfield. Fargas had something of a breakout season in 2007 and Bush is running very well in camp, but McFadden will still get his touches. The team has said they’d like to use McFadden like the Saints used Reggie Bush in his rookie season. Oakland won’t want to wear him out, so this looks like a RBBC for the time being.
3. Matt Forte, Bears
The Bears drafted Forte in the second round to shore up a struggling running game. Cedric Benson was a bust, but the offensive line has been suspect for a couple of years now, so there’s no telling just how much Forte will help Chicago’s ground game. He has looked solid in the preseason, and should be a solid RB3 in most fantasy leagues.
4. Kevin Smith, Lions
Smith is one of the more promising rookies simply because the Lions don’t have any other good options at tailback. Tatum Bell and Brian Calhoun haven’t made their mark, so it’s Smith’s job to lose. He has had durability and character issues during his career, so there is some question as to whether or not he can hold up to the wear-and-tear of a 16-game season. Still, given the lack of competition, he’s an intriguing middle-round fantasy pick.
5. Chris Johnson, Titans
The diminutive speedster seems to be earning a bigger and bigger role as the preseason wears on. LenDale White will get most of the work between the tackles (and, presumably, around the goal line), but Johnson will see a lot of work in the passing game and as a change-of-pace back.
6. Ray Rice, Ravens (pictured)
With Willis McGahee coming off of knee surgery, and Rice impressing in camp, there’s a real possibility that the rookie starts at tailback in Week 1. There are rumblings that the team is none too happy with McGahee’s (lack of a) work ethic, so Rice’s value is enhanced in keeper or dynasty leagues.
7. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
The Steelers raised some eyebrows (including Willie Parker’s) when they drafted Mendenhall in the first round. For now, they see him as a complement to “Fast” Willie, but he should eventually turn into an every-down back. The writing is on the wall for Parker; it’s just a matter of time before Mendenhall takes over as the Steelers’ feature back.
8. Steve Slaton, Texans
Ahman Green is hurt. Big surprise. Chris Brown is hurt. Big surprise. Somebody has to carry the ball in Houston and Slaton is second in line after Chris Taylor. Slaton has better speed, but Taylor is a little more physical. If Green and Brown continue to miss time, we might be looking at a Taylor/Slaton RBBC in Houston.
9. Felix Jones, Cowboys
Jones is the “lightning” to Marion Barber’s “thunder,” but this isn’t a timeshare. Barber is the main back, and Jones will be used to spell him and to add some punch out of the backfield in the passing game. Barber owners should definitely target Jones as a handcuff in the late-middle rounds.
