The top 10 first round steals of the last 10 years
Posted by John Paulsen (06/11/2009 @ 12:20 pm)

Everyone loves to focus on the lottery, but there are good players to be had in the late first round as well. A while back, I put together a list of the top second round picks of the modern era, so now I’m going to focus on those players that were drafted between pick #21 and pick #30 in the first round. (Note: If a player was drafted in the second round, even if they were taken with the #29 or #30 pick overall, they are ineligible to make the list. Sorry, Gilbert.) Since there are more star-quality players available in the 20’s, I’m limiting this list to the last ten drafts (i.e. 1999 through 2008).
It is sometimes tough to rank older players with newer players, but even if a younger player holds more trade value right now, I am going to take into account each player’s entire career. For the young guys, I have to project a little bit, so keep that in mind as you read and react. I feel great about the top eight guys, but there are a few players that missed the list that are pretty interchangeable with #9 and #10.
On with the list…
10. Aaron Brooks, Rockets
26th pick in 2007
I had to decide between Brooks and Nate Robinson here and went with Brooks given his fine performance in the playoffs this season (16.8 ppg, 3.4 apg, 42% from 3PT) and how Robinson’s numbers are a little inflated playing for Mike D’Antoni. Brooks is not a natural point guard, but his sharpshooting is a good fit given Houston’s inside-out attack. He’s small, but he’s quick and is able to score at the rim when given some daylight. The Rockets feel good enough about Brooks to trade Rafer Alston away midseason, so you have to like his upside.
9. Kendrick Perkins, Celtics
27th pick in 2003 (drafted by the Grizzlies)
In the world of “big” guys, I also considered Boris Diaw here, but it’s tough to pass on a 6′10″ 24-year-old who averaged 8.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game on a team loaded with vets. Without Kevin Garnett in the playoffs, the C’s needed Perkins to step up his game and he responded with 11.9 points, 11.6 boards and 2.6 blocks per contest. He also did a pretty good job on Dwight Howard, who had his worst numbers of the playoffs against the Celtics.
8. David Lee, Knicks
30th pick in 2005
Isiah Thomas couldn’t make a good trade to save his life, but he could spot talent in the draft. Lee has turned out to be a steal with the last pick in the 2005 draft. He’s an athletic lefty whose best traits are his hustle and smarts. In just his fourth season, Lee averaged 16.0 points and 11.7 rebounds per game, which made him one of the most consistent double-double guys in the league. His stock is so high right now that the Knicks might be able to use him as trade bait in order to land Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. Maybe they’d be better off sticking with Lee…
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Posted in: NBA, NBA Draft
Tags: 2009 NBA Draft, Aaron Brooks, Andrei Kirilenko, Beno Udrih, Boris Diaw, Courtney Lee, David Lee, Delonte West, George Hill, Gerald Wallace, Jarrett Jack, John Salmons, Jordan Farmar, Josh Howard, Kendrick Perkins, Kenny Thomas, Kevin Martin, Leandro Barbosa, Linas Kleiza, Morris Peterson, Nate Robinson, NBA Draft, Rajon Rondo, Rudy Fernandez, Samuel Dalembert, Tayshaun Prince, Tony Parker

Bulls need three OTs to force Game 7
Posted by John Paulsen (04/30/2009 @ 10:36 pm)

I’m exhausted.
So far, this Celtics/Bulls series has run six games; four went to overtime for a total of seven extra periods. It was the only playoff series ever to have three overtime games, and now that it’s gone to four, I’m starting to wonder if this is the best first round series in the history of the league. It’s certainly the best one that I can remember.
As a longtime Bucks fans, I found it hard at first to root for the Bulls, but I’m really starting to like this team. Joakim Noah plays with exceptional energy and passion, Kirk Hinrich does all the little things in the Chicago backcourt, John Salmons is an up-and-coming swingman, and Derrick Rose is one of the most dynamic players in the entire league.
There were so many great performances tonight. Salmons had 35 points, and broke down Paul Pierce every chance he had. Rose had 28 points, eight rebounds, seven assists and a huge block on Rajon Rondo’s go-ahead attempt in the waning seconds of the final overtime. Brad Miller bounced back from missing game-tying free throws (and nearly having his head removed from his body) in Game 5 to post 23 points, including two huge buckets — a three and a driving layup — at the end of regulation to bring the Bulls back from the dead. Noah had nine points and 15 rebounds, and had a monster steal that he turned into a three-point play (fouling Pierce out in the process) with less than a minute to go in the third overtime.
Ray Allen carried the Celtics for much of the game, finishing with 51 points on 18 for 32 shooting. Pierce and Rondo combined to shoot just 9 of 30 from the field, but Pierce made 11 free throws and Rondo dropped 19 dimes. The C’s wouldn’t have stayed in it without Glen Davis, who chipped in 23 points.
The series moves back to Boston for Game 7 on Saturday.
Posted in: NBA
Tags: Boston Celtics, Brad Miller, Celtics Bulls, Celtics Bulls best first round series ever, Celtics Bulls Game 6, Celtics Bulls recap, Chicago Bulls, Derrick Rose, Glen Davis, Joakim Noah, John Salmons, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen

Much Ado About Nothing: The 5 Biggest Trade Deadline Teases
Posted by John Paulsen (02/19/2009 @ 5:15 pm)

You can blame it on the Grizzlies.
Ever since they traded Pau Gasol to the Lakers for a bag of peanuts and some slightly used underwear, NBA teams have become more and more fickle about pulling the proverbial trigger. With the state of the economy, and some owners desperately trying to cut payroll before the cap and luxury tax thresholds decline, it’s a buyer’s market out there. And those buyers are looking for Gasol-type deals. On the flip side, Chris Wallace took all kinds of grief over that trade and general managers around the league don’t want to follow in his footsteps.
After two or three weeks of covering all of this trade chatter, the biggest deal to speak of is the Shawn Marion/Jermaine O’Neal swap and that happened almost a week ago. Sure, guys like Brad Miller, Andres Nocioni, John Salmons, Rafer Alston, Larry Hughes, Tim Thomas, Chris Wilcox and Drew Gooden changed zip codes, but I doubt any fans out there are sporting wood at the idea that one or more of these players is joining their team.
This year’s trade deadline was mostly about teams setting themselves up financially for the next two summers of free agency. Even though there were a number of big names bandied about, the Marion/O’Neal deal is the only semi-blockbuster trade of the season. And, barring some last-minute, late-breaking deal, we have these five teams to blame…
5. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs were in talks with the Nets about acquiring Vince Carter and also spoke with the Bucks about Richard Jefferson. Either of those players would have been a nice addition, but the Spurs just don’t have the pieces (or the balls) to pull off a trade like that. They were willing to trade for Carter, but they didn’t want to give up Roger Mason or George Hill. So they offer the Nets Bruce Bowen and Fabricio Oberto. Great, the numbers don’t even add up. Don’t get me wrong – I don’t really think that the Spurs should have given up Mason and/or Hill to acquire Carter. They’re arguably the second-best team in the West and their current lineup, if healthy, is likely to give the Lakers fits if the two teams meet in the playoffs with a less-than-100% Andrew Bynum. Plus the Spurs are notoriously conservative when it comes to messing with their chemistry. Jefferson wouldn’t have been a problem in that area but Carter might have been. So the Spurs stand pat. Shocker.
Read the rest after the jump...
Posted in: Fantasy Basketball, NBA, News, Rumors & Gossip
Tags: Alvin Gentry, Amare Stoudemire, Amare Stoudemire trade, Andres Nocioni, Andrew Bynum, Antawn Jamison, Brad Miller, Bruce Bowen, Chris Wilcox, Cleveland Cavaliers, Drew Gooden, Fabricio Oberto, George Hill, Jermaine O'Neal, John Paulsen, John Salmons, Kobe Bryant, Larry Hughes, LeBron 2010, LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, NBA trade talk, New Jersey Nets, Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers, Raef LaFrentz, Rafer Alston, Ramon Sessions, Richard Jefferson, Roger Mason, Shaquille O'Neal, Shawn Marion, Steve Kerr, Summer of 2010, Theo Ratliff, Tim Thomas, Vince Carter, Wally Szczerbiak

Breaking down the Chicago/Sacramento trade
Posted by John Paulsen (02/18/2009 @ 6:42 pm)

According to ESPN sources the Bulls and Kings have agreed to a multi-player trade. There aren’t any so-called “big” names in the deal but there are a number of starter-level players involved.
The Chicago Bulls and Sacramento Kings have reached tentative agreement on a trade sending Andres Nocioni, Drew Gooden, Michael Ruffin and Cedric Simmons to the Kings for Brad Miller and John Salmons, front-office sources said on Wednesday.
The Kings would then turn around and ship Ruffin to the Portland Trail Blazers for forward Ike Diogu and cash considerations, sources told ESPN’s Chris Broussard.
One source told ESPN.com that the Bulls players were pulled off the team bus Wednesday afternoon and were told they had been traded.
The trade centers around Nocioni, Gooden (or at least his expiring contract), Miller and Salmons. The Bulls’ big “get” here is probably Brad Miller, who is still a pretty good center. Salmons is a dynamic wing who is playing very well this season, but it will be interesting to see how the Bulls plan to use him. He is not nearly the same player coming off the bench.
For the Kings, they will get immediate salary cap relief as Miller’s $12.3 million will come off the books for next season. Nocioni’s contract runs another three years at the tune of $20 million, so they must see him as an upgrade to Salmons. Nocioni is capable of starting, but has spent most of his time in Chicago coming off the bench in large part because he plays the same position as Luol Deng.
Is there a winner here? Not really. The Bulls got the better end talent-wise, but the Kings got a nice mix of talent and salary cap relief. It looks like a win-win for both sides.
The big news here is that without Gooden’s expiring deal, the Bulls are probably out of the running for Amare Stoudemire’s services. But as the week has worn on it is looking less and less like the Suns are going to move him before the trade deadline.
Salmons, Hinrich trade talk
Posted by John Paulsen (02/18/2009 @ 3:00 pm)

In Marc Stein’s latest trade deadline column, he discusses potential new homes for Sacramento’s John Salmons and Chicago’s Kirk Hinrich.
San Antonio, meanwhile, is in the hunt as well, pursuing Salmons — with an offer of Bruce Bowen and Ime Udoka — as a far more affordable trade target for its perimeter rotation than Vince Carter. New Jersey’s Carter has tempted the small-market Spurs for days but can be absorbed by them only in a hugely expensive and complicated deal.
There is another complication for interested parties: Sources revealed Tuesday that Salmons has a 15 percent trade kicker in his contract that would require the team that acquires him to pay him a bonus of nearly $2 million and add that figure to its payroll. Salmons otherwise would rank as one of the league’s better bargains, earning just $5.1 million this season while averaging 18.3 points and shooting 47.2 percent from the field and 41.8 percent on 3-pointers.
Salmons is playing heavy minutes this season and isn’t the same player coming off the bench, so if the Spurs were to acquire him, it would behoove them to insert him in their starting lineup. This might be a tough pill to swallow for a franchise that is all about chemistry and players knowing their role. If the Spurs can find a way to add Salmons without losing Roger Mason or George Hill, it would be a pretty nice move. Salmons can start, but he may not finish if Gregg Popovich goes with Mason and Manu Ginobili in crunch time.
Minnesota, according to NBA front-office sources, has strong interest in Hinrich and is pursuing the 28-year-old to address a void at lead guard that hasn’t been filled by Randy Foye (whose success this season came after a shift to shooting guard) or the undependable Sebastian Telfair.
The Wolves also have two expiring contracts of their own (Jason Collins and Rashad McCants) that they’re prepared to shed.
Wow, it’s interesting sometimes to see how far a guy’s stock has fallen. Kirk Hinrich has a very affordable contract — $26.5 million over the next three seasons — but an injury got him off to a slow start this season and he isn’t shooting the ball particularly well, so the Bulls may be willing to trade him to Minnesota for cap relief. Derrick Rose is the future at point guard and the move would allow them to re-sign Ben Gordon (though that ship has probably already sailed).
Hinrich could provide solid leadership in Minnesota. Prior to this year, he has averaged at least 6.0 assists for five consecutive seasons, and if the T-Wolves feel that Foye is really an off guard, then Hinrich should be a nice complement. With a core of Hinrich, Foye, Al Jefferson and Mike Miller (if Minny keeps him), the Timberwolves could be competitive.
Marc Stein’s trade talk: Amare, Chandler, Caron and more
Posted by John Paulsen (02/06/2009 @ 3:30 pm)
Marc Stein wrote a nice piece discussing some of the bigger NBA trade rumors out there right now.
1. Can we really expect an Amare Stoudemire trade in the next two weeks?
Sources say it’ll happen in-season only if the Suns can find a deal that delivers a mixture of top young talent and payroll relief. Which won’t be easy.
2. A deal for Toronto’s Jermaine O’Neal remains readily available to the Miami Heat. The Sacramento Kings likewise would still love to send Brad Miller to Miami for Shawn Marion as long as they don’t have to take back Marcus Banks, too.
3. I’ve heard multiple rumblings in the past month that Washington has made rugged forward Caron Butler available. But our research disputes that.
4. Portland is naturally making calls to see what it can fetch with its LaFrentz chip, but it appears that there’s a much better chance that Kings swingman John Salmons will wind up with the Blazers — who have inquired about Salmons — than that Chicago’s Luol Deng will.
5. San Antonio’s desire to acquire one more big man (preferably a floor-stretching big man) to counter the Lakers and Boston is no secret.
Random thoughts…
I still can’t believe that the Suns are actually considering trading a former 1st Team All-NBA player in the middle of his prime, but apparently they are…Jermaine O’Neal torched the Lakers two nights ago and looked great doing so. If he joined the Heat, that would become a very interesting team to watch. The key is his staying healthy, however…The Wizards would be nuts to trade Butler away. He’s their best player and the cheapest of their big three…I don’t think I’d go after Salmons if I’m the Blazers unless they’re planning to start him. He doesn’t play well off the bench and given the team’s glut of wings, I don’t know that he’d be the best option in the starting lineup…I’d love to see what Rasheed Wallace could do in a Spurs uniform, but San Antonio doesn’t have any expiring contracts and the numbers just don’t work.
Posted in: NBA, NBA Finals, Rumors & Gossip
Tags: Amare Stoudemire, Amare Stoudemire trade, Caron Butler, Caron Butler trade, Jermaine O'Neal, Jermaine O'Neal trade, John Salmons, John Salmons trade, NBA trade rumors, Rasheed Wallace, Rasheed Wallace trade, Shawn Marion, Shawn Marion trade

2008 NBA Preview: #22 Sacramento Kings
Posted by John Paulsen (10/16/2008 @ 2:00 pm)
Offseason Movement: The team traded Ron Artest to the Rockets for forward Donte Greene and a future first round pick. Artest played well for the Kings and rehabbed his image to a certain extent. The Kings essentially traded him for two late first round picks, which isn’t a bad deal. The distraction is gone and the Kings can continue the rebuilding process.
Keep Your Eye On: John Salmons/Francisco Garcia, GF
With Artest in Houston, there are a lot of minutes to be had at small forward. Both players are versatile and can play a little point guard as well. Salmons plays much better in a starting role and is the better slasher, while Garcia is the better shooter and ballhandler. Given his production as a starter, Salmons figures to take over that role, but Garcia will get a lot of minutes off the bench.
The Big Question: Are the Kings good enough to contend for a playoff spot?
Sacramento finished 12 games out of the #8 spot in the West last season and lost Ron Artest. They’re a young team, so collectively they’ll need big progress to overcome that loss of talent and 12 games in the West. This looks like a team that will compete on a nightly basis but will ultimately finish with 30-35 wins in a tough conference.
Outlook: I like what the Kings are doing, but I wonder if giving PG Beno Udrih a big contract (five years, $33 million) was the right thing to do. They must see him as their point guard of the future, but on a PER basis, he was the #30 PG in the league. They are building around Kevin Martin (pictured), and project to have a ton of cap space in the summer of 2010, when they’ll likely look to add a star free agent. In addition to Martin, if another one of their young players (Udrih, Spencer Hawes, Jason Thompson, Donte Green, Shelden Williams) can develop into a star, the Kings will be in business in two or three years.
Check out our NBA Preview page for a look at every team. We’ll be posting three previews per business day, which will take us up to the start of the season on Tuesday, October 28th.
Posted in: Fantasy Basketball, NBA
Tags: 2008 NBA Preview, 2008 NBA Team Previews, Beno Udrih, Donte Greene, Francisco Garcia, Jason Thompson, John Salmons, Kevin Martin, Ron Artest, Sacramento Kings, Shelden Williams, Spencer Hawes

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