Using my preseason prediction model, I plugged in a team with those three players and used fairly conservative estimates for what they might produce in the coming season — a Player Efficiency Rating of 29 for James, 26 for Wade and 23 for Bosh. I gave James 3,100 minutes, Wade 2,850 and Bosh 2,600.

For every other minute played by Team Trinity, I inserted my replacement-level figure of a 10 PER — this is what I input when a team has an empty rotation spot or has it filled by a player projected to produce less than 10. I never go any lower than this and have never felt a need to, as virtually anyone who produces at a lesser rate (once we include defensive value) is quickly replaced.

OK, that’s my methodology; now for the result. This team, believe it or not, projected to win 61 games.

And that assumes all replacement level players. The roster could improve at midseason when a vet is bought out or waived, and next summer when the team would have the various exceptions available to add higher-priced talent.

There are several big names missing — Ed Davis, Ekpe Udoh — but the one I’m interested in is Patrick Patterson.

Reader “jfountain1523″ said the following about Patterson’s absence from Hollinger’s list: “I assume its the poor rebounding and being a bit short for his position that ruled him out in Hollinger’s rater.”

Let’s take the last part first. Is he “a bit short for his position”? He’s 6-9.25 in shoes and has a 7-1.25 wingspan. Looking at last year’s measurements, he’s three-quarters of an inch shorter than Blake Griffin, but his wingspan and standing reach are two inches wider/higher. Was anyone worried about Griffin’s size this time last year?

Now, regarding the rebounding. This is a funny criticism to make and it’s based on his rpg this season (7.4). Yeah, that’s not great for a power forward in college, but digging a little deeper and things don’t look so bad. In his sophomore year, he averaged 9.3 rebounds per game, which is just 0.5 rebounds less than rebound monster DeMarcus Cousins averaged this season. And speaking of Cousins, wouldn’t playing alongside a great rebounder like that only serve to reduce the number of boards available for Patterson? Of course his rebounding numbers were going to dip this season.

In the end, I think Patterson will make some late lottery team in need of a power forward very happy. I don’t think he’ll be a star, but he could certainly average 15-8 in a starter’s role.

Last year, John Hollinger’s Draft Rater really liked Ty Lawson and Tyreke Evans, and that turned out well. The year before, it liked Michael Beasley over Derrick Rose, who wasn’t even listed as the top point guard in the draft. It also liked Kevin Love (score) and thought Anthony Randolph was way overrated (fail).

In the past, Hollinger’s system has been pretty accurate, all things considered.

The Draft Rater has yet to miss a lottery pick who became an All-Star in its top 12 collegians list — although that string may end in another year or two thanks to a miserable 2008 performance (Russell Westbrook and Brook Lopez both were overlooked that year). And if it’s blown a couple of picks, look at the actual draft and you’ll find even more mistakes by the pro teams themselves.

On the other hand, the Draft Rater has picked out five All-Stars that the pros missed among the first 12 collegians — Carlos Boozer, Rajon Rondo, Danny Granger, Josh Howard, and David West. No misses, five additions. I like that ratio.

It’s a good read, but to sum up, the Rater thinks DeMarcus Cousins is the top player in the draft, with Evan Turner and John Wall reasonably close behind. Questions about Cousins’ coachability will likely hinder his draft stock, but I think he’s going to be a great player. You don’t rebound like he does and not love the game. He just needs to get into a good, stable situation with a solid coach and grow up a little bit.

It’s going to be interesting to watch how he progresses through the draft process. Do we hear stories about how he’s texting his friends during interviews with NBA teams? Does he dog it in certain workouts? If he acts like a pro over the next month, it could mean he’s picked #2 or #3 instead of #5 or #6.

The Rater also predicts some duds; Cole Aldrich, Patrick Patterson, Ekpe Udoh, Ed Davis and Hassan Whiteside are the big names on that list.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

The top three were the Blazers, Magic and Lakers. The bottom three were the Bobcats, Bucks and Kings. Here’s the writeup for the Blazers:

On paper, no other team possesses as bright a future as the Portland Trail Blazers. It all starts with the players. Nobody, not even Oklahoma City, can match the stable of young talent the Blazers have built. Brandon Roy is already a superstar, and joining him are potential stars like LaMarcus Aldridge (24), Greg Oden (21, even if he looks more like 51), Nicolas Batum (20) and Martell Webster (22). That doesn’t even count the other assets the Blazers have that could eventually pan out, such as talented second-year benchwarmer Jerryd Bayless and a veritable farm team in Europe that includes Joel Freeland, Petteri Koponen and Victor Claver.

Portland also gets strong grades in other categories. The management under GM Kevin Pritchard has been rock-solid, with the only minor quibble being the decision to draft Oden ahead of Kevin Durant — a decision, one should remember, that all 30 GMs were prepared to make, even if a lot of fans and analysts weren’t. In terms of money, the Blazers have no cap room to speak of for the foreseeable future, but being owned by one of the world’s wealthiest men in a rabid city where sellouts are the norm means the Blazers can comfortably go into luxury tax and beyond should the need arise.

Portland market didn’t score as highly in the market category — witness Hedo Turkoglu’s about-face — as sad, dreary winters, the nation’s highest state taxes and a relative lack of diversity for a major metropolitan area limit its attractiveness to free agents. They stay in the middle of the pack in this category largely due to Allen’s largesse, with first-rate team facilities, and the fact that a lot of players grow to like the place once they’ve been there — it helped bring Steve Blake back, for instance.

The draft is where Portland scored poorly, but even that is a positive in a sense — with such a bright future, it can expect to pick in the mid-to-late 20s in coming seasons.

The feature does a pretty nice job of evaluating how each team is positioned heading into the next five years.

Lawson, who is coming off an electric performance in leading North Carolina to the championship, grades out highly for several reasons: Although he’s short for a point guard, his shooting numbers (47.1 percent on 3-pointers), strong assist rate and microscopic turnover ratio (9.1, first among point guard prospects) all point to him as an NBA keeper.

The Draft Rater puts Lawson slightly ahead of Griffin for first, but this doesn’t mean a team should take Lawson first. The standard error in the projections for point guards is higher than it is for big men, which means random noise could be putting Lawson ahead just as easily as on-the-court performance. If the consensus is that Griffin is the better player, I don’t think Lawson’s statistical record alone is strong enough evidence to refute it. Additionally, we’ve heard questions about Lawson’s work ethic and injuries.

But the rating is emphatic enough for me to say Lawson should be at the top of the college point guard ladder, ahead of Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague & Co. (If you’re wondering about Ricky Rubio, I’ll have more on him next week.)

Hollinger’s Draft Rater isn’t error-proof but it’s not a bad second opinion when trying to pick a player out of a group of two or more.

Or when you’re trying to avoid a bust…

From 2002 to 2007, 15 players were (a) among the first 10 collegians drafted and (b) excluded from the top 12 by the Draft Rater. In other words, these were the college players the Draft Rater thought were drafted too high. Of those 15, not one has played in an All-Star Game. The only two who have started a significant number of games in the long term have been Kirk Hinrich (who was 13th in the Draft Rater in 2003) and Charlie Villanueva.

Who were the other top-10 picks not favored by the Draft Rater? Spencer Hawes, Acie Law, Fred Jones, Melvin Ely, Marcus Haislip, Jarvis Hayes, Rafael Araujo, Ike Diogu, Channing Frye, Randy Foye, J.J. Redick and Patrick O’Bryant.

In other words, when the Draft Rater has suggested avoiding a player, that has turned out to be good advice.

His system also had Carlos Boozer (2nd), Josh Howard (5th), Danny Granger (3rd), Rajon Rondo (2nd) and Rodney Stuckey (5th) much higher than they were actually drafted.

Other than Lawson, Austin Daye was a surprise in the top 5. The Rater also has Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry, DeJuan Blair, Jonny Flynn, Hasheem Thabeet, James Harden and Earl Clark in the top 12.

On the flip side, the Rater doesn’t like Jordan Hill (26th), B.J. Mullens (28th), James Johnson (30th), Chase Budinger (31st), Sam Young (52nd), DeMar DeRozan (54th) and Patty Mills (68th).

I think Hill will turn out to be a player. He picked up the game late, which will explain some of the ball handling issues that Hollinger says are an important indicator for the Draft Rater. DeRozan had the biggest disparity between current ranking (in the top 10) and projected performance.

…when I read a Bill Simmons mailbag.

Anyway, there was a really funny moment Thursday that could have only happened at a Lakers game. Near the end of a third-quarter timeout, the camera caught Val Kilmer and three of his chins on the JumboTron, punctuating the moment by playing “Danger Zone” by Kenny Loggins. You know, a “Top Gun” homage. He took a second or two to get the joke, then unleashed one of those “Very funny, you got me, just know that I’m on a lot of meds right now” smiles. And this would have been enjoyable on its own, but they cut to someone else in the stands. …

That’s right. …

Tom Cruise!

He caught on a little quicker and did the Tom Cruise Over-Laugh. And this would have been great on its own, but the Lakers pushed it to another level: They went split-screen with Kilmer and Cruise with “Danger Zone” still blasting. As far as I was concerned, this was the most emotional reunion in Lakers history. Cruise kept laughing; Kilmer looked mildly perturbed. (After all, he’s an actor, dammit! That was 23 years ago! He’s made a lot of movies since then!) At this point, I was praying they’d cut to Anthony Edwards in Section 312 but he wasn’t there.

Ha! Great one about Anthony Edwards sitting in the upper level.

Wouldn’t that make more sense than gutting the franchise like a fish (which they will), saddling [Chris] Paul with a terrible team and eventually pushing him to demand a trade? I can’t see any scenario in which Chris Paul is a happy New Orleans Hornet in two years. Which means he’ll find a better team. Sorry, N’Awlins. Over.

Not over. Chris Paul is signed through the 2012 season. The Hornets need to find a way to unload Peja Stojakovic’s contract, and it probably won’t happen until he’s in the final year of his deal in 2010-2011. They can either add a star-level player who has two or three more years on his deal (and his team wants Peja’s expiring contract instead) or they can wait until Stojakovic is off the books and reload. In the summer of 2011, David West will be 30, so he should still have three good years left.

It’s funny. Peja’s contract got the Hornets into this mess, but if New Orleans had continued to develop Julian Wright instead of signing James Posey for $6 million per season, they wouldn’t be a luxury tax team, and they wouldn’t be looking to give Tyson Chandler away.

A few readers e-mailed me after Barkley commented that Melo was the best “pure” scorer in the NBA (wondering what that meant), and my answer is this: It means Melo gets his points easier than anyone else does. There are six ways to score in a basketball game: Make 3-pointers, post up, beat guys off the dribble, score in transition, score in traffic and get to the line.

He forgot the offensive glass. And this guy thinks he’s qualified to be an NBA GM?

Maybe this will be part of my pitch to take over the Clippers: “If an outsider could turn Fiat around, an outsider could turn the Clippers around!”

Great. I want the Clippers to fire Dunleavy as much as the next guy, but not if it means 3,000 words from Simmons about why he should take over as GM.

The one fascinating thing about “Kobe Doin’ Work” was Kobe’s contrived interactions with his teammates; it’s like he was taking us for fools. Watch this, I’m going to talk Italian to Sasha Vujacic. And what’s funny was that his teammates all had a “Wait a second, he never talks to me!” look on their face as soon as he walked away. It was a massive miscalculation of the average NBA fan’s IQ, and digging even further, a blown chance to show people that he’s a ruthless competitor who demands the best from everyone around him.

I couldn’t agree more.

The difference in quality between pre-DUI Chuck [Barkley] and post-DUI Chuck has been jarring. In a good way. He even looks lively during TNT’s integrated commercial spots when he’s trying to seem excited about “X-Men.” And he was singing the praises of Orlando and Denver well before it became chic to do so. We’ve come a long way since the days when he was praising Dallas and Detroit for the Kidd/Iverson trades.

This made me think of that Charles Barkley T-Mobile video game commercial…

I love the skin tight black bodysuits. Classic.

Here’s a bonus one with Dwight Howard…

“I’m gonna try something fancy. Watch this.”

When discussing why Robert Horry is on a list of the players with the top overall winning percentages, Simmons made this comment…

Robert Horry’s career is going to be studied for months by John Hollinger’s perplexed great-great-great-great-grandchildren in the 2100s, and ultimately they’re going to throw their hands up, shake their heads and move on to a topic that actually makes sense.

It’s not that complicated. Horry was a solid role player who (a) could fit in anywhere (b) didn’t think he was better than he was (and never demanded an outrageous contract) and (c) was always in the right place at the right time. He played with the three greatest big men of recent memory in their primes: ’92-’96 Hakeem Olajuwon (2 titles, 1 MVP), ’96-’03 Shaq (3 titles, 1 MVP) and ’03-’08 Tim Duncan (2 titles). A career 34% three-point shooter, Horry had the innate ability to hit shots in the clutch, and had plenty of opportunity with all of the double-teams that Olajuwon, Shaq and Duncan demanded over the years. Plus, he was a good defender, so he was always on the court in crunch time. Like I said — right place, right time.

That’s it.

There’s a pretty good chance that the current top eight teams in each conference will be the same 16 teams that make the playoffs. According to John Hollinger’s playoff odds, the Charlotte Bobcats have a 4.5% chance and the Indiana Pacers have a 1.1% chance to earn a spot. The Bobcats are four games back of the Bulls and the Pistons with five games to play, so they essentially have to win out or go 4-1 and hope either Chicago or Detroit has a complete meltdown. The Pacers are five games back, so their margin for error is even slimmer.

In the West, the Suns’ recent play (2-4 over their last six) has whittled their playoff chances down to 1.2%. Last night’s game in Dallas was pretty much a must-win, but the Suns lost by 24 points. There is a logjam amongst the likely playoff teams in the West; #3 San Antonio and #8 Dallas are separated by just 3.5 games, so we could see a serious shuffling of playoff matchups over the last week of the season.