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2010 NFL Question Marks: Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore Ravens' Ed Reed warms-up prior to his game against the Washington Redskins at M & T Bank Stadium in Baltimore on August 13, 2009. UPI/Kevin Dietsch Photo via Newscom

Merry training camp season, everyone. It’s been a long offseason, but football is finally gearing up again and to celebrate I’m rolling out a new series on TSR entitled “2010 NFL Question Marks,” where I discuss one or two of the biggest concerns that teams have heading into the new season. Granted, some teams have more issues than others, but I’ll primarily be focusing on the biggest problem areas. First up is the Baltimore Ravens and their question marks surrounding their secondary.

After dismantling the Patriots in the postseason last year, Raven fans are more excited about the team’s Super Bowl hopes this season than I am about “Shark Week” every year. (I think it goes without saying that sharks are the greatest fish, human and/or breathing organism on the planet. I mean, they’re sharks.)

And who could blame the Baltimore faithful? Joe Flacco is heading into his third season (which is the year when things are supposed to really “click” for players), Ray Rice is on the verge of superstardom and the passing game added a legitimate No. 1 wideout this offseason thanks to Ozzie Newsome’s trade for Anquan Boldin.

But just like all 32 teams at this time of year, the Ravens have some concerns and most of theirs lie within the secondary.

First and foremost, Ed Reed isn’t healthy and that’s a huge problem. At 31, some note that he isn’t as physical as he was earlier in his career, but the guy can still cover ground with the best of them. His ability to read what formation an offense comes out in, bait the quarterback into making a poor throw and then actually make a play on the ball is unrivaled. In fact, I wouldn’t hesitate to say he was the best coverage safety in the league last year, along with Arizona’s Adrian Wilson.

But again, he’s also hurt. The Ravens recently placed him on the active/Physically Unable to Perform list and he’s a candidate to miss the first six weeks of the season as he continues to battle a hip injury. He missed four games last year and the Ravens still made the playoffs, but playing without him isn’t something the team wants to make a habit of.

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NFL Divisional Playoff Preview: Saturday

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints
4:30 pm ET
TV—FOX

If last week’s wild card game between Arizona and Green Bay is any indication, the Cardinals are having a difficult time stopping the opposition. And when the opposition is the New Orleans Saints, who boast the top offense in the NFL, you have to believe this game today could get ugly. Pair that with the fact that the Cardinals racked up 51 points last Sunday against the NFL’s second ranked defense, and that New Orleans is 25th overall in team defense (26th against the pass), and there is more fuel to the shootout theory here. Of course, the game plan for each team should be to try and run the ball to control the clock, and if that’s the case, the Saints have a decided edge with their sixth ranked rushing attack. Remember, though, the key word in “game plan” is “plan,” because it’s not likely the Packers or Cards expected to play an arena league game last week. In other words, you can bet Kurt Warner and Drew Brees will wind up airing it out in this one, with those speedy receivers on both sides reducing the game to a track meet. And really, that’s how this game should be. As for the outcome, we’ll give the rested home team a slight edge. THE PICK: SAINTS 52, CARDINALS 49

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
8:15 pm ET
TV—CBS

Speaking of rested players, there is going to be a mutiny in Indianapolis tonight if the Colts lose this game. Head coach Jim Caldwell and owner Bill Polian have been adamant about their belief that resting Peyton Manning and other regulars during most of the final two games, instead of pursuing a perfect 16-0 record, was the prudent thing to do. And while playing those guys would have been a huge risk (see Welker, Wes), you have to believe it was even riskier to not play them. Meanwhile, the Ravens, who come in with a solid ground game that is ranked fifth in the league, are just the kind of team that can give the Colts and their 24th ranked run defense fits anyway. John Harbaugh wants to run Ray Rice all day long and keep it away from Mr. Manning as much as possible, and he’d love to run the ball 52 times like he did against New England. When the Colts do have the ball, they are ranked dead last in rushing offense but second in passing. So guess what they’re gonna do? But the Ravens were in Tom Brady’s face all game last week, and you can expect Ray Lewis and company to try and do the same to Manning, who also has to worry about ball-hawking safety Ed Reed, voted Safety of the Decade earlier this week by USA Today. The Colts are extremely talented and didn’t win 14 games by accident, but that resting players thing is going to bite Caldwell and Polian in the butt. THE PICK: RAVENS 23, COLTS 20

Breaking down the potential upsets of the Divisional Round

There are eight teams playing in four playoff games this weekend. Of the eight, two of the teams (the Ravens and Eagles) have legitimate shots of pulling off upsets, one has a decent shot (Chargers) and one might be lucky to still be in the game by the fourth quarter (Cardinals).

Granted, these are playoff games we’re talking about, so every team has a chance to pull off an upset. But does anyone outside of Arizona truly believe that the Cardinals will fly east and beat the Panthers with Carolina coming off a bye week? The Cards were impressive in their win over the Falcons, but they’ve always played better on the road than at home so there’s a big possibility that ‘Zona won’t make it to the next round.

The Chargers could very well go into Pittsburgh and knock off a Steelers team that has offensive line issues and a quarterback that doesn’t mind turning the ball over from time to time. But Pittsburgh’s defense is freaking nasty and I can’t see Darren Sproles rushing for over 100 yards like he did last week. Again though, a few key bounces go the Chargers way and SD could pull off the upset.

But the two games people are mostly taking about are the Ravens-Titans and the Eagles-Giants matchups. Those are easily the best two matchups of the weekend and games that could go either way.

Let’s gauge these two potential upsets:

Ravens at Titans: Baltimore’s defense has stifled opponents all year, but Tennessee’s has played just as well. Look for the Titans to gang up to stop the Ravens’ outstanding rushing game and force rookie quarterback Joe Flacco to beat them via the pass. For as good as Baltimore’s defense is and for as well as Flacco has played this season, he’s still inexperienced, as is head coach John Harbaugh. A lot of folks are getting wrapped up in how good the Ravens defense is, but inexperience is eventually going to catch up with Flacco and Harbaugh. I think it will be this week against a veteran Titans squad with an equally good defense.
Upset rating: 7 out of 10.

Eagles at Giants: Philadelphia has been one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL this season and they didn’t necessarily rough up the Vikings as many predicted last Sunday. But the G-Men haven’t looked sharp in over a month and if the Eagles can stop Brandon Jacobs and the running game, Eli Manning might succumb to the pressure without having a big time playmaker at receiver. Philly has also already beaten the Giants in New York this year and their defense matches up very well with what the G-Men bring to the table. Brian Westbrook isn’t 100% and it’s tough to win in New York, but I actually think the Eagles have a better shot with Donovan McNabb and company of producing an upset than the Ravens do in Tennessee.
Upset rating: 8 out of 10.

What’s your upset of the weekend?

NFL Playoff Preview: Wild Card Weekend

What a bizarre season this has been. Two teams that many pundits figured would meet in the Super Bowl – the Cowboys and Patriots – didn’t even make the playoffs. While two teams expected to dwell the cellars of their respective divisions for another season – the Dolphins and Falcons – will be playing in round one of the postseason, which kicks off this weekend.

Below is a complete playoff preview for the four Wild Card games this weekend. In each game preview you’ll find a matchup breakdown, a player to keep an eye on, odds, and a predicted score. (What’s a game preview without a prediction?)

Rather amazingly, all four home teams are underdogs this weekend.

Matt RyanAtlanta Falcons (11-5) at Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
Saturday, January 3, 4:30 PM FOX
Opening Odds: Falcons –2
Over/Under: 51
Game Outlook:
Outside of having to face Kurt Warner and a Cardinals’ offense that averages over 290 passing yards a game, this is a great matchup for the Falcons. Arizona has had issues stopping the run over the past couple weeks and before Edgerrin James cracked 100 yards Sunday against the Seahawks, no Cardinal rusher hit the 100-yard mark in the previous seven games. Offensively, that means Atlanta can do what it does best – put the game in the hands of Michael Turner. “The Burner” is coming off a 208-yard rushing performance in Week 17 and hasn’t shown signs of wearing down despite this being the first season that he’s had to carry the full rushing load. Look for the Falcons to try to wear down Arizona’s front seven throughout the game and keep the Cards’ explosive offense on the sidelines. Once the Cardinal safeties start to creep up to stop Turner, Atlanta offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey can start taking shots down the field with rookie quarterback Matt Ryan. Defensively, the Falcons will have to keep their safeties back in coverage and rely on their front seven to stop the Cardinals’ run game because corners Chris Houston and Dominique Foxworth can’t contain Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald in one on one coverage. Although Boldin has missed the final two games with a shoulder injury, he’s expected to play, which is obviously huge for Warner and the passing game. But if they can’t run the ball they’ll be to one-dimensional and the Falcons will be able to sit back in coverage.
X-Factor: John Abraham, Falcons DE
Abraham has been an absolute beast this season and if the Falcons can build a decent lead with their running game, it will allow Abraham to pin his ears back and head straight for the quarterback. Atlanta has done a nice job rotating their defensive linemen all season to keep them fresh and if Abraham can get pressure on Warner, he’s bound to make mistakes and turn the ball over.
Prediction: Falcons 30, Cardinals 27.
Atlanta’s secondary is a concern (especially with safety Lawyer Milloy nursing a back injury), but the Vikings exposed the Cardinals two weeks ago and the Falcons will use the same blueprint.


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NFL Week 11 Primer

John HarbaughSunday’s Best: Ravens (6-3) at Giants (8-1), 1:00 PM ET
Who would have thought this game would be the best matchup of the week with the Chargers playing the Steelers and Cowboys taking on the Redskins in the same weekend. The job first-year head coach John Harbaugh and his staff has done with rookie quarterback Joe Flacco has been amazing and the rest of the Baltimore players have really bought into the new regime’s system. They’ll get their biggest challenge this season on Sunday, however, as no team outside of the Titans is playing better than the Giants right now. There are a couple of great matchups within this game, but none bigger than New York’s power running game vs. the stingy Baltimore run defense. One advantage the Giants have is that this will be the Ravens’ fifth road game in six weeks and they might start to wear down. Flacco will face a ton of pressure from a quick Giants’ front seven, but getting Willis McGahee, Ray Rice and Le’Ron McClain going will help neutralize what New York does best defensively. This will be the most physical matchup of the weekend.

Upset Watch: Rams (2-7) at 49ers (2-7), 4:05 PM ET
Everyone is scrambling to be the first to predict the Jaguars to upset the Titans this weekend, but people have been waiting for Tennessee to fall for weeks and still they remain unbeaten. It’s hardly a huge upset to predict one 2-7 team will beat another, but after their strong showing on Monday night, football pundits might assume this game will be an easy victory for the Niners. While there’s nothing to like about the Rams following their abysmal performance last week against the Jets, this is a better team than what they’ve shown and San Fran is a bit dysfunctional right now after their debacle on Monday Night Football. Jim Haslett is still fighting for a head coaching job (as is Mike Singletary) and there’s no doubt he’ll have his team more prepared than they were last week in New York. Of course, a win for the Rams would mean that Marc Bulger has to get his head out of his ass and someone has to find Torry Holt. But as usual with my “Upset Watch”, I won’t predict an outright win for St. Louis, but I say they at least cover the 5.5-point spread.

Tony RomIntriguing Matchup: Cowboys (5-4) at Redskins (6-3), 8:15 PM ET
Tony Romo will be back in action this week, but will he need a game or two to shake off the rust? Unfortunately for him, Dallas can’t afford to lose any more ground in a stacked NFC East. The Redskins are also fighting to keep pace in the division and will look to avenge their ugly loss to the Steelers on Monday Night Football two weeks ago. They’ll have to do it without Clinton Portis, however, as he currently is sidelined with a MCL injury. Jason Campbell has been solid this season, but he’ll need to make plays without Portis in the backfield. If the Cowboys are going to walk away with a win, they’ll do so because of a strong defensive effort – not the play of Romo.

Other Notable Games:
Titans (9-0) at Jaguars (4-5), 4:15 PM ET
As previously noted, everyone is waiting for the Titans to slip and this very well could be the weekend they do. But they don’t seem like the team that gets ahead of themselves and every one of their wins has been a dogfight. The Jaguars rebounded with an impressive win over the Lions last week, but let’s not forget that they lost to the Bengals and Browns in two games prior to that.

Bears (5-4) at Packers (4-5), 1:00 PM ET
This is a must win for both teams because the Vikings are right back in the division hunt again. If the Packers lose, they might be able to kiss the playoffs goodbye. Kyle Orton is expected to play for the Bears.

Vikings (5-4) at Bucs (6-3), 1:00 PM ET
We’ll find out a lot about Minnesota this Sunday and whether or not they’ve returned from the grave. A win over a solid Tampa team would go a long way in proving they’ve rebounded from earlier seasons struggles.

Broncos (5-4) at Falcons (6-3), 1:00 PM ET
The legend of Matt Ryan continues this week in the Georgia Dome. Ryan is 4-0 at home this year and will have plenty of opportunities to make big plays against a horrible Denver defense. But Jay Cutler as lit opposing defenses up this year and there could be a wild finish to this game in the making.

Four ways to turn an NFL team around in one offseason

John HarbaughEach year the NFL provides examples of how teams can rise from the basement to the penthouse in just one offseason. 2008 is no different, as the Ravens, Falcons, Dolphins and Jets have all won as many games this year as they did all of last season.

Here are four ways NFL teams can turn around their misfortune in just one offseason along examples from the 2008 season.

1. Get a strong, football-minded front office person to construct the team.
2008 Example: Miami Dolphins
It’s safe to say at this point that Bill Parcells knows what he’s doing. He’s won everywhere he’s gone and it would have been naïve to think he wouldn’t turn around the Dolphins at some point. But the fact that he’s done it this quickly is remarkable and speaks volumes for how necessary it is for teams to have good front office people in place to run the day-to-day operations. Parcells is a football-minded guy and he can judge talent. He parted ways with long-time veterans Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor because he knew they weren’t going to play key roles in Miami’s future. Sure the Dolphins lost veteran talent, but they also were focused on moving forward. Parcells also went out and found a competent quarterback in Chad Pennington and drafted a franchise left tackle in Jake Long. Now the Fish can compete on a weekly basis, unlike last season when they were dead in the water (no pun intended) before games even started. Teams can’t win if their front office makes huge draft mistakes and can’t fit individual pieces into one big puzzle. Credit the Dolphins for spending big on a proven winner in Parcells. They might not make the playoffs this year, but they’re competing again and soon enough, the postseason will become a reality.


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NFL rookie head coaches have solid first month

Only four weeks have past in the 2008 NFL Season, but as Don Banks of SI.com writes, the four rookie head coaches are already off to a respectable start.

Jim Zorn– Washington’s Jim Zorn has his confident Redskins at 3-1, on a three-game winning streak, and coming off a head-turning 26-24 upset of the previously undefeated Cowboys in Texas Stadium, where no new Redskins coach had ever won before.

– Baltimore’s John Harbaugh and his scrappy Ravens are 2-1, and on Monday night in Pittsburgh came within a play or two of going to 3-0 within the AFC North despite starting a rookie quarterback in Joe Flacco.

– Atlanta’s Mike Smith has brought 2-2 respectability to his rebuilding Falcons, who are only a game behind NFC South co-leaders Carolina and Tampa Bay (3-1). Atlanta, too, is doing just fine with a rookie quarterback in Matt Ryan.

– And even Miami’s Tony Sparano made us sit up and take notice, with his 1-2 Dolphins pulling off the NFL’s upset of the year, that imaginative 38-13 Week 3 thrashing of New England in Foxboro — a loss that snapped the Patriots’ league-record 21-game regular-season win streak. Miami, in case you forgot, finished a cool 15 games behind New England last year.

All four of these head coaches have done a wonderful job, but the one that has most impressed is Zorn. We always hear that the West Coast Offense takes two to three years to learn and yet QB Jason Campbell has already shown how comfortable he is in the new system. That’s a testament to Zorn’s coaching and getting his players up to speed with a rather complicated offensive system.

It’s not uncommon to see a team with a rookie head coach start the year winless for the first couple weeks. But considering all of these teams except Miami have two wins, it’s fair to say that these first-year head coaches are off to solid starts.

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