My 2011 MLB season predictions were a little off this year.

I said the A’s would win the AL West and they actually finished 22 games out of first.

I said the White Sox would win the AL Central and they just traded their manager to another team, which sums up how well they did this year.

I said the Giants would repeat as National League champions and in doing so I cursed Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, Freddy Sanchez and the 900 other players they placed on the DL this season.

I had the Braves winning the NL Wild Card and we all know how that turned out. Yiiiiiikes.

While I did have the Phillies winning the NL East and the Yankees making the postseason as the AL Wild Card, those were gimmies. My only claim to fame was predicting the Brewers to win the NL Central, although when you have the Red Sox winning the World Series and they don’t even make the postseason you have no right to brag about anything.

So if you’re offended by my postseason predictions below, don’t be. Chances are I’ll be wrong anyway.

ALDS: Yankees over Tigers.
I don’t trust the Yankees’ pitching but I trust it more than I trust Doug Fister. Justin Verlander was the best pitcher in the American League this season but he’s had a knack for coming up short on the road throughout the years. Knowing the Yankees they’ll be down in every game of this series and figure out some way to advance. Derek Jeter will be 16-for-18 with 11 doubles and one game-winning home run or something ridiculous.

NLDS: Phillies over Cardinals.
The Phillies did the Cardinals a favor by beating Atlanta but if I were them, I would have wanted the downtrodden Braves to advance. That team would have just been happy to reach the postseason after a miserable September. Nevertheless, the Phillies’ pitching will dominate the hot-and-cold St. Louis lineup and the Cardinals’ pitching will fail them in Philadelphia. They’ve got Edwin Jackson slated to start Game 2 in that bandbox the Phillies’ call a stadium, which should work out well considering he’s a fly ball pitcher. (Read: sarcasm.)

ALDS: Rangers over Rays
I love the Rays and I would rather see a small market team like them reach the postseason in dramatic fashion than an underachieving Boston club. But Texas’ starting rotation is deep and was the first AL team since 1977 to have five pitchers with 13 or more victories. That’s an amazing stat when you consider Cliff Lee is no longer a part of the rotation. On the other side, the Rays will throw two rookies (Jeremy Hellickson and Michael Moore) and a guy in David Price who always seems to come up short in big games. I don’t like this matchup for the feel-good Rays, although Joe Maddon deserves to be the AL Manager of the Year with the work he did in Tampa this season. The guy has done great things despite being handcuffed by a cheap front office.

NLDS: Diamondbacks over Brewers
I get the impression that everyone believes the D-Backs are just happy to be here. But let me tell you something: This team does all the little things right. They pitch well, they steal bases, they play good defense and they get just enough offense to win ballgames. The Brewers have more overall talent but I like the NL West to reach the NLCS again this year.

ALCS: Rangers over Yankees
Again, I just don’t trust New York’s rotation. The Yankees relied on Sabathia and a three-man rotation en route to their last World Series title in 2009 but CC is running out of gas this time around. I know Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia have good numbers but toss in A.J. Burnett and this rotation seems awfully combustible to me. Without Lee, I thought Texas wouldn’t even make the playoffs. But I’ve seen the error of my ways and like the Rangers to repeat in the American League.

NLCS: Phillies over Diamondbacks
While I do like Arizona’s chances of advancing past the first round I don’t think we’ll see a repeat of last season when Philadelphia’s bats fall silent in the NLCS. The Diamondbacks’ pitching is good but the Giants’ arms were special last October. Plus, I don’t see how the Phils don’t make the World Series with the rotation they have. It’s just too good. Bonus for Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee: No Cody Ross this year.

World Series: Phillies over Rangers
Yeah, I’m picking the favorite: what of it? Pitching, pitching, pitching…both of these teams have the starting rotation s to reach the Fall Classic and in the end, I see Texas coming up short again. I really like what the Phillies did at the trade deadline in acquiring Hunter Pence. To think Giants’ GM Brian Sabean gave away one of the best pitching prospects in baseball for a 34-year-old rental in Carlos Beltran when he maybe could have had a 28-year-old Pence for much less is just absurd. (Not to mention a 28-year-old Pence who is under team control.) Phils in six.

Wow, things are getting wild. The Rays and Yanks are now tied for first in the AL East, and the Red Sox are not going away. The Padres have a commanding 6-game lead. The Braves have lost four straight, but the Phils could not capitalize. The Reds are hot and the Cards are not. The Twins and Rangers have not been hurt by recent mediocre play. So there you have it, and here you have your power rankings….

1. New York Yankees (78-50)—It was only a matter of time before the Rays caught up, but until Tampa goes ahead in the standings, the Bombers are still the team to beat.

2. Tampa Bay Rays (78-50)—Joe Maddon’s team sure doesn’t mess around, do they?

3. San Diego Padres (76-51)—If you keep waiting for the Padres to come back down to earth, you’re going to be waiting until possibly November.

4. Minnesota Twins (74-55)—Watch out for this team in the postseason. All of a sudden, with Brian Fuentes and Matt Capps, they have a pretty sick bullpen. Joe Nathan who?

5. Texas Rangers (73-55)—Josh Hamilton has an excellent shot at the triple crown, and this lineup has to send shivers through the collective spine of the Yankees’ pitching staff.

6. Cincinnati Red (74-54)—Speaking of triple crown, how about Joey Freaking Votto?

7. Atlanta Braves (73-55)—They can’t sustain losing streaks at this point in the season, but are still hanging tough.

8. Boston Red Sox (74-55)—In what other division can you be 19 games over .500 and in THIRD place?

9. Philadelphia Phillies (71-57)—They had their chance to close the gap this past week, and blew it.

10. San Francisco Giants (71-58)—Lots of talent, but can they put it all together? P.S. What is wrong with Tim Lincecum?

Cleveland Indians C/1B Victor Martinez has one simple rule for opposing pitchers that throw inside on him during an at-bat: If you throw at his head, he will go after you. And evidently his pitching staff also has his back, as Tribe closer Kerry Wood threw two inside pitches on Tampa Bay Rays OF B.J. Upton that began a brief scrum in the bottom of the eighth inning of Sunday’s game.

The beanball war began on Friday night, as Martinez thought Rays lefthander J.P. Howell was purposely throwing at his head. After ducking away from a high and tight fastball, Martinez began yelling (click here to see video) at Howell before home-plate umpire Greg Gibson stepped in to calm the situation.

After the game, Martinez explains his side of the incident:

“I don’t like that, throwing at my head,” Martinez said. “If you want to hit somebody, [throw at] a different spot. But don’t throw at the head.”
Howell shrugged off the whole incident.
“I was just pitching, man, playing ball,” he said. “I mean, whatever. I threw a pitch in. Whatever. Where the ball was, if his face was in that area, you make up your own mind what you think. I just threw a pitch barely in, a little up. And whatever. He didn’t like it. I don’t know what that is.”

After the first two pitches went behind and inside to Upton, Rays manager Joe Maddon got into a shouting match with Martinez before both benches emptied. Maddon felt Wood was intentionally throwing at his player in retaliation to the incident in Friday’s game. The Indians have denied the accusation.

These two teams meet again in Cleveland for a four-game series beginning on May 25. Stay tuned!

- Phil Sherdian notes that the Phillies are the definition of tight ball club. (Philadelphia Inquirer)

- Joe Posnanski writes that Rays’ manager Joe Maddon doesn’t do anything halfway. (Kansas City Star)

- Gregg Doyel questions what Phillies’ manager Charlie Manuel does all game. (CBS Sports)

- Steve Henson has the story of a Rays fan who stands to win $25,000 if his team can win the World Series. (Yahoo! Sports)

Leave it to the well-read Rays manger to come up with such a profound statement. Chances are this saying is nailed up in his teams’ clubhouse alongside others from the likes of Albert Camus and Jean-Paul Sartre. Maddon’s right, and he’s used this pitching-first philosophy to propel his team into the ALCS.

If there’s one quality that ties each of the remaining four teams together, it’s that each of them can hit. They each have at least two big bats, lead-off men that can hit for average, and a bottom of the order that can consistently do some damage. When teams are this evenly matched at the plate, it’s often a single blunder on the part of a pitcher that can decide a game. As we’ve seen in the Division Series between the Angels and Red Sox, it comes down to the pitching. Both teams boasted fabulous rotations and excellent hitting, but it was the Red Sox middle relief and closer that really won the games.

The same will go for both matchups in the Championship Series. The Phillies, Dodgers, Rays, and Red Sox all have three starters who can win games at home and on the road. However, these series are best out of seven games, which creates a dilemma for each of these ball clubs as there isn’t a strong fourth starter to be found. Subsequently, these teams might start their aces after three days rest, or even force them to pitch for a third time if the series extend to seven games. This will be a test of player’s stamina and sound decision-making on management’s part. While managers struggle with whether to start a tired arm or an unpredictable one, a bullpen becomes even more valuable. They can come to the rescue (Matsuzaka in the ALDS), consistently put the lid on a victory (Papelbon and Lidge all year), or sometimes pitch the majority of the game after a starter bombs (Wade, Park, Kuo, and Saito of the Dodgers).

These games are going to be decided in the late innings, and this factor alone will make watching them gratifying. Here’s the breakdown:

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

At their healthiest, the Dodgers have a better pitching staff than the Phillies. If set-up man Hong-Chi Kuo and closer Takashi Saito hadn’t injured themselves at the end of the season, this series would undoubtedly favor the Dodgers. As a result, they need their starters to go as long as possible. If Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda can each go seven innings in all of their starts, I think the Dodgers can rely on their bullpen to pull through. Chan Ho Park and Cory Wade are both capable of maintaining a lead. The problem lies in the intimidating left-handed Phillies hitting. The Dodgers only have three southpaws on their roster: starter Clayton Kershaw, reliever Joe Beimel, and the aforementioned Kuo. Word is that the left-handed Kuo has been comfortable in recent simulated sessions. The Dodgers have said that Kuo might pitch an inning per game. A successful eighth inning with Kuo in relief opens the door with recent go-to closer Jonathan Broxton. Of course, this is idealistic. Yet, the fact remains that the Phillies cannot match this formula. It’s true that Brad Lidge outshines any of the Dodgers relief, but he’s only as good as the lead he’s protecting. The Dodgers dominated the opposition’s starting pitching better than any other team in the Division Series. They pounded Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, and Rich Harden of the Cubs, a rotation far more intimidating than the Phillies’. During the regular season, the clubs were evenly matched, with each sweeping the other at home and splitting their decisions. What’s important now is how late into the game their starters can pitch before handing it off to their relief.

The Dodgers have a couple advantages over the Phillies. The first lies in Derek Lowe. He’s thrown “Cy Young” quality pitching for the past two months and has more playoff experience than the Phillies starters combined. The Dodgers can pressure Lowe into pitching Games 1, 4, and if need be, 7. With a two or three run cushion, Lowe can hold steady into the eighth inning, even on three days rest. Given the Dodgers recent activity at the plate, they should be able to support their ace. If Lowe isn’t given the reins in Game 4, the Dodgers could either go with Clayton Kershaw or Greg Maddux. Both can outduel Joe Blanton of the Phillies. Kershaw, the likely choice, has pitched capably against Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard who have struggled against left-handed pitching.

Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays

The two best teams in the American League advanced. This statement is obvious as both the Red Sox and the Rays made due with critical injuries that severely altered their team’s chemistry. Josh Beckett’s recent injury was visibly apparent in Game 3 against the Angels, as he gave up three runs on eight hits in five innings. Still, Jon Lester, the strongest pitcher in the postseason, led the Red Sox to a Game 4 clincher. The Rays will likely be without veteran closer Troy Percival, who had a magnificent first half. With Percival gone, they’ve moved Dan Wheeler into his spot. Wheeler blew five out of 18 chances during the regular season. Even without a strong closer, the Rays offense produced a large enough lead for their starters to secure wins against the White Sox.

Tampa Bay enters this series with the third best team ERA in baseball. Though they finished 10-8 against the Red Sox, both teams were swept twice at home. James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Andy Sonnanstine, and Matt Garza are a very good rotation, and they’ve proven they can hold a lead when given it. Nevertheless, Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Tim Wakefield stack up better pound for pound—when they’re injury-free. And they’re not. The Rays need to win all their games against an ailing Josh Beckett and a struggling Tim Wakefield. Also, it’s essential to build a lead substantial enough to render Papelbon useless. If Shields, Kazmir, or Garza can outpitch either Lester or Matsuzaka in at least one decision, the Rays have a very good chance.

For Boston, Papelbon is just as key now as he’s ever been. Of the teams that remain, no other closer is as valuable. While the Rays have a fairly talented set-up in Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell, and David Price, Dan Wheeler doesn’t bring the sense of security that comes with Papelbon. If he’s on the mound, the Red Sox are going to win—there’s just no way around it. To advance to the World Series, the Rays need to get to Lester or Matsuzaka in one of their starts. It’s difficult, but not impossible.

Any way you slice it, this year’s World Series is going to be entertaining. Each of these teams carry their own unique story. Whether it’s Manny and Torre in L.A., Charlie and the Phillies, the Red Sox domination, or the endearing Rays, whoever wins will be a deserving champion.