Originally published December 11, 2008.
Updated November 12, 2009.

The phrase “Summer of 2010″ has become part of the NBA lexicon. Teams have been tripping over each other trying to clear cap space for next summer so that they can sign an impact free agent (or two). With that in mind, let’s take a look ahead at the free agent crop of 2010.

Below is a list of the top 10 players that are likely to be free agents next summer. I’m ranking them based mostly on talent, but it’s also important to note each player’s age in July of 2010, as that will affect his value and skill. For example, a 31 year-old Paul Pierce holds much more value than a 33 year-old Paul Pierce. Get the drift?

1. LeBron James, SF (26 years-old)
James is the golden boy of this free agent class and is the player that every franchise would love to land next summer. He will have just turned 26 and whatever team is lucky enough to sign him will – barring injury – enjoy four or five years of the best basketball of his career. The Cavs have gone “all in” this season, signing Shaq, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, and re-signing Anderson Varejao. In the process, they gave up whatever cap space they would have enjoyed next summer. If Cleveland’s season ends in disappointment once again, it wouldn’t be surprising if LeBron decides to take his game elsewhere. Three teams — the Knicks, Bulls and Nets — jump out as good fits. LeBron has stated that his top priority is to become a “global iconâ€� and playing in Manhattan would serve that purpose. If the Knicks are able to unload Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries before the trade deadline, then they’ll have the projected cap space to sign two top players on this list, and that might be enough to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line. Plus, he’s familiar with Mike D’Antoni (via the duo’s work with Team USA) and the Knicks’ up-tempo system would be a near-perfect fit for LeBron’s skill set. The Nets offer a better supporting cast (led by Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the (impending?) move to Brooklyn would boost the franchise’s profile. Chicago has a number of pieces already in place (Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich) and is bigger market than Cleveland. But would LeBron want to go to the franchise that Michael Jordan built?
Note: Player option (PO)

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Delonte West misses practice (unexcused) again. All right, one unexcused absence I can understand, but after he was MIA yesterday, wouldn’t the Cavs track him down to find out why he was absent? Of course they would, which is why he is either completely unreachable or the Cavs don’t approve of his reasons for missing practice. This is worrisome, but expect the team to give him a lot of leeway to get his life straightened out.

The New York Daily News thinks there has been another sign that LeBron is headed to the Knicks. His name is William Wesley and apparently he has LeBron’s ear. He was at Knicks camp this week and some conspiracy theorists believe his presence is a sign that LeBron will be playing in New York next season.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Joe Johnson will not sign an extension this season. Instead, Johnson is going to become a free agent next summer when a number of teams are going to have the cap space to offer a max deal. After LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and (maybe) Amare Stoudemire, Johnson is the next biggest prize in the free agent class of 2010. He’s one of those players that isn’t quite worth a max deal but he’s going to get one anyway. (Think Michael Redd circa 2005.)

Byron Scott told the Times-Picayune that the Hornets’ starting small forward job is Julian Wright’s to lose. This is about a year too late. Wright was quite productive (PER: 15.48) in his rookie season, but the Hornets went with James Posey instead, thinking that he’d be the missing piece to the championship puzzle. Wright is one of those young, talented players that is going to see a big increase in minutes, so fantasy basketball owners should take note.

Every so often, I’ll be sitting at a bar, throwing back a few adult beverages with a buddy or two and I’ll pose the following question:

If you could have one current NBA player to build your franchise around, with the goal of winning a NBA title in the next five years – who would it be?

Since the 2009 NBA Playoffs are in their infancy, it seems to be as good of a time as any to kick around this question. My criteria are simple – a franchise player has to be able to carry his team, while being reasonably young and injury-free.

We’ll count down from #10 to #1. My top nine guys were pretty easy to list, but #10 was a bitch. Maybe you can help me decide. Feel free to provide your own top 10.

HONORABLE MENTION

Yao Ming, Rockets (28 years-old)
I love Yao’s post up game, and he is a skilled passer, but the chances are only 60/40 that he’ll be healthy for any given playoffs and those odds are only going to decrease as time wears on. He’s like Robert Downey, Jr. — he’s great at what he does, but you just don’t know if he’s going to be there when you need him.

Chauncey Billups, Nuggets (32)
He seems to be more responsible than ‘Melo for the Nuggets’ great play this season, but he’s 32 years old. Still, his effectiveness depends more on strength, steady play and good shooting than it does his (somewhat limited) athleticism, so he should be able to play into his late thirties.

Al Jefferson, Timberwolves (24)
Jefferson is one of the few young, back-to-the-basket post players in the league. He averaged 23/11 on a bad team, which leads me to believe he could post 19/10 on a playoff team, and should only get better with age.

Amare Stoudemire, Suns (26)
He’s four years younger than our next guy, but he’s already had two serious injuries in his career so one wonders if this is a trend. He also seems to be a little bit on the selfish side and has a rep for being a bad defensive player.

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The picture says it all. Shaq and Kobe won co-MVP awards as the West rolled over the East, 146-119.

While jealousies and drama tore Shaq and Kobe apart years ago, there was nothing but love Sunday at U.S. Airways Center. They shared the stage at the end, too, each grabbing his third All-Star Game MVP award. Bryant put this pairing with The Big Legendary in perspective.

“We’re not going to go back to the room and watch Steel Magnolias or something like that, you know what I’m saying, crying, all that stuff,” Bryant cracked. “We had a good time. That’s all.”

Bryant led all scorers with 27 points. LeBron James paced the East with 20. But it was O’Neal, the self-proclaimed “Godfather of the NBA”, who owned the highlight of the night. The third-quarter delight began at the 3-point line in a matchup of one-time Orlando centers.

The Magic’s first All-Star center (O’Neal) passed the ball through the legs of the latest, Dwight Howard, and into the waiting hands of West teammate Chris Paul. O’Neal took the return dish and nearly took the basket down with a two-handed ferocity.

The fun didn’t end there. Two slams later, Shaq decided to do pull-ups on the rim. Working against East backup “center” Rashard Lewis, the dunks kept coming and the West’s lead expanded accordingly. Kobe helped set up a few of O’Neal’s signature scores.

For the record, I thought the duo’s camaraderie was fake. After all, it was only a few months ago that Shaq wanted Kobe to tell him how his a** tastes. Kobe was probably instructed by his PR people to go out of his way to make nice with Shaq, as it would only help his image.

The game itself was competitive for much of the first half, but the West pulled away with a run in the third quarter. It seemed like the starters of the East could keep things tight, but when the Eastern reserves came into the game, passing went out the window and players started jacking up really quick shots. It didn’t help that the East didn’t have another true big man outside of Dwight Howard. One of the reasons Shaq had a big night was due to the fact that Rashard Lewis was covering him when the second units were in. That’s just not going to work.

Joe Johnson might want to forget his All-Star experience. He was 0-4 from the field and failed to score. Doug Collins suggested that it might have something to do with returning to Phoenix, where Johnson once played.

In previous columns, I ranked the top 10 free agents of 2010 and identified several players with expiring contracts that might be moved before the Feb. 19 trade deadline. Now it’s time to talk about cap space.

We’ve been hearing a lot lately about how teams are “clearing cap space� so that they can sign a big-name free agent in the summer of 2010 (or in some cases, 2009). But what exactly does this mean?

The NBA has a “soft cap� which is currently set at $58.7 million. Teams that are over the cap can’t sign a free agent from another team for more than the mid-level exception, which usually starts at around $5 million per season. Teams that are under the cap can offer free agents whatever cap space they have up to the level of a max contract, which starts at about $14 million per season under current conditions.

HoopsHype has all the salary data for each team, but I thought it would be useful to compile it all into one table so we can easily see who will have money to spend over the next two summers.

First, my assumptions:

- Given the current state of the economy, the salary cap is likely to stay at about $59 million over the next two seasons, so I used the current cap ($58.7 million) to calculate each team’s cap space.

- Certain players have already indicated that they’re planning to “opt out� of the final year of their contracts so that they can enter free agency. For those that have not announced, I used my best judgment to determine whether or not a player is likely to opt out. For example, LeBron James is very likely to opt out of his contract in the summer of 2010, but Michael Redd, who stands to make more than $18 million that same season, is likely to play out the final year of his deal because he’s not going to get anything close to that kind of money on the open market.

- I’ll also list the major (and some minor) decisions that each franchise will have to make over the next two seasons. These are typically decisions about whether or not to re-sign a player whose contract is up (or is entering restricted free agency). For example, if the Knicks decide to sign David Lee to a long-term deal, it’s going to have an impact on the team’s available cap space.

Without further ado, here’s the table, sorted by total projected cap space in the summer of 2010.

…and here they are…

East: Devin Harris, Danny Granger, Jameer Nelson, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Rashard Lewis and Paul Pierce

West: Shaquille O’Neal, Chauncey Billups, Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Tony Parker, Brandon Roy and David West

When comparing the final rosters to my picks, there were three changes. I didn’t have Allen Iverson on my roster, much less a starter, but he was voted in by the fans. Rashard Lewis replaced Vince Carter, which goes to show that the coaches value team wins more than individual (albeit gaudy) stats. David West replaced Carmelo Anthony, and I think it’s a good call, especially with ‘Melo’s injury. The longer he was out, the better the chances that the coaches would leave him at home. It didn’t help his All-Star stock that Denver has played very well without him.

The only thing that’s really wrong with these rosters is the inclusion of Allen Iverson. There were a host of players in the East — Carter, Tayshaun Prince, Ray Allen, Mo Williams, Rajon Rondo, Caron Butler and Josh Smith — that were more deserving, but there’s no doubt that AI is a very popular player. Unsurprisingly, we can’t really argue with the coaches’ picks. They know what they’re doing.

It’s especially good to see Devin Harris, Danny Granger, Jameer Nelson and Tony Parker get recognized for their fine play this season.

I made my picks more than two weeks ago. Then the All-Star starters (as voted in by the fans) were announced.

Now that we know who the starters will be, I’m wondering if there’s any reason to change any of my other picks. Let’s take a look…

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Starters: Allen Iverson, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard

My original picks: Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce, Chris Bosh, Devin Harris, Danny Granger, Tayshaun Prince, Jameer Nelson and Vince Carter

I didn’t have Iverson on the team, much less starting, so one of my other eight picks has to go. Unfortunately, I think it’s going to be Prince because the Pistons aren’t good enough to warrant two All-Star nods. The same could be said about the Nets, but Vince Carter’s stats are pretty big. I think I’ll go with this group, though there are a number of players that could take Carter’s spot. If any of these other guys — Johnson, Pierce, Bosh, Harris, Granger and Nelson — don’t make it, it’s going to be a pretty big snub.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Starters: Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Amare Stoudemire, Tim Duncan and Yao Ming

My original picks: Dirk Nowitzki, Brandon Roy, Carmelo Anthony, Tony Parker, Pau Gasol, Chauncey Billups and Shaquille O’Neal

I had Nowitzki starting over Stoudemire, but no worries there. Would I swap out any of the players? Well, ‘Melo is still sidelined and the Nuggets don’t seem to be hurting too much without him. That weakens Anthony’s position and strengthens Billups’ argument. I could see David West, LaMarcus Aldridge, Al Jefferson or Deron Williams replacing Anthony, but I doubt it will happen. I think the other picks are safe, though Williams could replace Parker or Billups, though I don’t think either guy deserves to miss the All-Star Game.

The reserves will be announced this Thursday on TNT.

The starters for the NBA All-Star Game have been announced, and Allen Iverson is amongst the starters in the East. In my picks, I didn’t even have him on the roster, much less in the starting lineup. The Pistons are a mediocre team and AI is having one of the worst seasons of his career. Maybe that’s not his fault, but it doesn’t mean that he should get a golden ticket into the All-Star Game every season. More importantly, there are at least five guards — Joe Johnson, Devin Harris, Jameer Nelson, Ray Allen and Vince Carter — that are more deserving. With AI’s inclusion, there won’t be room for at least two of them in Phoenix.

Here’s a look at their stats…

AI: 16.15 PER, 17.9 ppg, 5.4 apg, 3.3 rpg, 1.6 spg, 42% FG, 28% 3PT
JJ: 18.85 PER, 22.0 ppg, 6.0 apg, 4.5 rpg, 1.0 spg, 43% FG, 35% 3PT
DH: 23.16 PER, 21.8 ppg, 6.4 apg, 3.0 rpg, 1.6 spg, 45% FG, 32% 3PT
JN: 20.87 PER, 17.1 ppg, 5.3 apg, 3.4 rpg, 1.2 spg, 51% FG, 44% 3PT
RA: 17.96 PER, 18.0 ppg, 2.7 apg, 4.5 rpg, 0.9 spg, 50% FG, 41% 3PT
VC: 20.6 PER, 21.5 ppg, 4.7 apg, 5.0 rpg, 1.0 spg, 44% FG, 40% 3PT

And here’s an argument for each guy…

Joe Johnson: The Hawks are a game ahead of the Pistons and JJ’s stats are better in every category except for steals. I think Johnson deserves to start.

Devin Harris: The Nets are only 5 1/2 games behind the Pistons — let’s face it, both teams are mediocre — and Harris’ numbers are vastly better than Iverson’s.

Jameer Nelson: He’s having the second-best season of anyone on the Magic, and they are 8 1/2 games ahead of the Pistons. Iverson’s scoring is a bit better, but Nelson is a far better shooter and is as good or better than AI in every other category.

Ray Allen: They have the best record in the East, 10 games better than the Pistons. Allen is a far better shooter, and while his assist and steal numbers are lower than AI’s, he’s a better rebounder.

Vince Carter: See Devin Harris. Seriously, I prefer all these other guys to Carter, but I prefer Carter to Iverson. His numbers are better pretty much across the board and the Pistons and Nets aren’t too far apart in the standings. Carter and Harris are carrying the Nets while AI has more help — Rasheed Wallace, Rip Hamilton, Rodney Stuckey and Tayshaun Prince (who is more deserving of an All-Star nod due to his terrific defense and good stats).

Since AI is in, that means we have to cross two players off that list of five (as there is likely to be just three additional guards on the roster). I would go with Johnson, Harris and Nelson. The Magic deserve two All-Star nods and Nelson’s numbers are a bit better than Ray Ray’s. As for Carter, the Nets probably don’t deserve two spots.

Nope, Devin Harris did NOT make the list.

The results have been announced and here are the starters (as voted in by the fans):

EAST

Guard: Dwyane Wade, Heat
Guard: Allen Iverson, Pistons
Forward: LeBron James, Cavs
Forward: Kevin Garnett, Celtics
Center: Dwight Howard, Magic

WEST

Guard: Chris Paul, Hornets
Guard: Kobe Bryant, Lakers
Forward: Tim Duncan, Spurs
Forward: Amare Stoudemire, Suns
Center: Yao Ming, Rockets

Well, the starters are a popularity contest and sometimes undeserving players are voted in. Such was the case with Allen Iverson, who isn’t having a very good year but is immensely popular with fans. In my picks, I didn’t even have AI on the roster, much less starting. Joe Johnson or Devin Harris should have gotten that spot. AI’s presence makes it unlikely that Tayshaun Prince will make the cut, since the Pistons don’t have a record that deserves two All-Star nods. The other four starters for the East are pretty much no-brainers, though China almost voted Yi Jianlian into the game. (Now that would have been a travesty.)

Things were less controversial in the West. I chose Nowitzki over Stoudemire at forward, but had Amare on the roster, so no harm, no foul. Kobe, CP3, Duncan and Yao are pretty much no-brainers.

Overall, the fans got 9/10 right…that’s a B+ in my book.

The NBA All-Star Game is part meritocracy and part popularity contest. First, the fans vote, and the top five vote getters – two guards, two forwards and a center – from each conference are the starters. Then the coaches vote on the remaining seven reserves for each team.

The current vote count can be seen here, but I thought I’d put together my own list – five starters and seven reserves – for each team. To me, when it comes to naming All-Stars a winning record is just as important as great stats, so given two players with similar numbers, I’m probably going to give the nod to the guy on the better team. I’ll list the player’s Player Efficiency Rating, which gives a nice overview of the guy’s per-minute statistical production this season.

And off we go…

EASTERN CONFERENCE STARTERS

Dwyane Wade, Heat
PER: 29.14
D-Wade is back with a vengeance. He’s averaging 29.0 points, 7.1 assists and 5.1 rebounds, and is (almost) single-handedly keeping the Heat in the playoff hunt. With 24% accuracy, I don’t know why he’s shooting so many threes (3.0 per game), but that’s just nitpicking. He’s third in the league in steals (2.25).

Joe Johnson, Hawks
PER: 19.84
JJ is averaging 22.3 points, 6.1 assists and 4.6 rebounds, and has the Hawks in a battle for the #4 spot in the East. His three-point shooting is down two points, but his overall FG% is up a point. Remember when everyone laughed at the Hawks for giving up future MIP Boris Diaw and two first round picks for him?

LeBron James, Cavs
PER: 32.04
LeBron is the front-runner for the MVP thus far. He’s posting 27.7 points, 6.6 assists and 6.6 rebounds a game. His numbers are down, but that’s because the Cavs can afford to rest him an additional four minutes per game. It’s great to see his FG% over 50% (50.8%) and FT% approaching 80% (78.8%). LeBron has always been a statistical stud, but it’s the Cavs’ stellar record that has him leading the MVP race.