Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- Who knew that with the Bears in New Orleans to take on the Saints and Cam Newton hosting the defending champs that Raiders-Bills would be the most entertaining early game on Sunday? I’m pretty sure neither defense dressed for the second half but this game had it all: a major come-from-behind victory, plenty of big plays (that TD Denarius Moore caught from Jason Campbell was siiiick), and a last-minute touchdown pass on fourth down (see the photo above as Scott Chandler scores the game-winner). It’s actually fun to watch Ryan Fitzpatrick run Buffalo’s dare-I-say-high-powered offense.

- I was impressed by Cam Newton in his pro debut (how could you not be?), but I fully admit that I expected him to fall flat on his face against the Packers. Naturally he comes out and throws for over 400 yards again and is now on pace to pass for 6,832 yards this season. He’s also completing over 60% of his passes and had he not turned the ball over three times, I’m not so sure the Panthers don’t beat the Packers today. I don’t know if this is beginner’s luck or we’re seeing the next great thing at quarterback but I shudder to think what he’ll do once the game actually starts slowing down for him.

- Let me get this straight: the Ravens rack up 35 points on the Steelers’ defense but couldn’t muster more than a touchdown and two field goals against the Titans? Some were concerned that the Ravens would come out flat after their impressive win over the Steelers last Sunday and “some” were right. Matt Hasselbeck took advantage of a depleted Baltimore secondary all afternoon, completing 30 of his 42 pass attempts for 358 yards and a touchdown. Hasselbeck was helped by the fact that the Ravens wanted nothing to do with pressuring him as they finished with zero sacks.

- Jaguars win a gutsy 16-14 game over the Titans in their season opener, then fail to show up today and are blasted by the Jets, 32-3. Titans look hapless in Jacksonville last week, then came out on Sunday and romp a Raven team that destroyed the Steelers last week. The NFL is screwy, I tell ya.

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Joe Flacco expressed some disappointed on Saturday that the Ravens aren’t planning to begin long-term contract talks with him until after the 2011 season. He told the Baltimore Sun that he would like talks to start this year.

“I think I’ve established myself,” Flacco said at Haruki Nakamura’s Japan relief charity event at Ripken Stadium Saturday. “If you’re not confident with who I am, I’m not sure what a year is going to make.”

Flacco added, “Ideally for me, I would like to start talks this year. Next year, I feel like they would have to throw something in front of me that’s going to be pretty legit in order for me to not play out my fifth year. If you don’t sign me this year, you’re making me play a whole year of my contract with no security. If you want to sign me after next year, what’s playing six more months.”

“Ideally for me, I would like to do something as soon as possible because I feel like I deserve it,” Flacco said. “If you don’t feel like I’m going to be your quarterback for the next 10 years, what’s one year going to make. I don’t know what the deal is. We’ll have to let this play out and see.”

“Personally and for what I’ve done, you would think they would feel comfortable with me,” he said. “Not that signing something next year wouldn’t say we feel comfortable with you. But the problem with that is you’ve just made me play another year.”

“I would feel that after three years, you can make a decision on whether you want me to be your future quarterback or whether you don’t. It’s your decision,” Flacco said. “I wish and hope they would do what they want me to do, which is stay here. Obviously, I want to stay here no matter what. I would want them to do something as early as possible.”

Flacco does raise some good points although in the Ravens’ defense, there are many teams that wait until a player is heading into the final year of his contract before approaching extension talks. It’s in teams’ best interest to wait as long as possible before heading to the negotiating table, just in case an injury occurs.

Of course, that doesn’t give Flacco peace of mind. He deserves a new deal and although he needs to show some patience because of the CBA mess, it would behoove the Ravens to make their young quarterback happy. As Flacco noted, if he’s the guy that Baltimore wants under center for the next 7-10 years, then lock him up and show him you’re committed to him financially.

Here are five quick-hit thoughts on the Steelers’ 31-24 victory over the Ravens in the NFL Divisional Round.

1. Ravens pick a horrible time to play their worst football.
Baltimore’s second half collapse in this game was one of the worst I have ever seen. They did such a great job building all of this momentum in the first half only to give it right back on their first offensive possession in the third quarter. The Ravens took a two-touchdown lead into the second half but quickly allowed Pittsburgh back into the game with sloppy play. From Ray Rice and Joe Flacco’s fumbles to two huge drops by Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh at the end of the game, the Ravens saved their worst for the most important game of the year. That said…

2. …what a great job by the Steelers to capitalize on Baltimore’s mistakes.
You have to hand it to the Steelers: they always seem to make plays when it matters most. When Rice fumbled at the start of the third quarter, they turned the gift into seven points. When the defense picked off Flacco, they again put the ball into the end zone. When Boldin dropped that key pass on third down late in the game, Ben Roethlisberger hit Antonio Brown on an improbable 58-yard pass to set up the eventual game-winning touchdown. Pittsburgh played a horrible first half, but it didn’t matter in the end. Because when the other shoe eventually dropped, the Steelers took full advantage.

3. Flacco must elevate his game in the playoffs.
In his third year, Joe Flacco has done some great things. You can tell he “gets it” and that he’s going to be a very good player for a long time. But if the Ravens want to win anything of any substance, he has to elevate his game when they get to the playoffs. He only threw for 125 yards and while he did have one touchdown, his fumble and interception in the second half proved costly. Granted, if Boldin catches that ball at the goal line on third down or Houshmandzadeh doesn’t drop that fourth down pass, maybe I’m signing Flacco’s praises right now. But those two drops don’t excuse Flacco’s lackluster play in the second half.

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Here are six quick-hit observations from the Ravens’ 30-7 trouncing of the Chiefs in Sunday’s Wildcard Round.

1. Baltimore’s defense once again comes to play.
What’s the quickest way to quiet a hostile crowd? How about giving them nothing to celebrate. Outside of Jamaal Charles’ 41-yard touchdown run in the first quarter, the Chiefs could do nothing offensively. The talk coming into this game was how KC could take advantage of Baltimore’s secondary but all the Ravens did was shut down the Chiefs’ vertical passing game (did anyone tell Dwayne Bowe what time the game started?) and force five turnovers. Matt Cassel’s protection wasn’t great but it’s not like he had anywhere to go with the ball either. Every time he looked downfield, a Baltimore defender was blanketing one of his outside receivers. How dominant was the Ravens defense on Sunday? They held the Chiefs to eight first downs and only 53 yards passing. Unreal.

Bonus observations:

- What a hit by Ed Reed on Dexter McCluster in the second quarter to force a punt after the Chiefs had reached midfield. That hurt me on my couch.

- The Ravens’ defenders have to stop trying to lateral the ball back to teammates after interceptions. I know sometimes they wind up getting more yards and it makes for a nice highlight, but Haruki Nakamura almost cost his team points by foolishly trying to flip the ball back to a teammate after a pick on the first drive of the second half. Talk about a momentum killer.

2. This loss isn’t on the Chiefs’ defense.
Kansas City may have given up 30 points but it’s hard for a defense to stop any offense when it’s on the field for the entire game. By the time the Ravens put together that 10-minute scoring drive in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs’ defense was gassed. KC’s offense couldn’t sustain drives and even worse, they turned the ball over five times. In the second quarter, the Chiefs did a nice job by forcing a three-and-out following a turnover. In the first half, they also did well taking away the Ravens’ vertical passing game because Joe Flacco really didn’t have anyone to throw to down field. But as the game wore on and as they got more tired, the Ravens were able to methodically drive up the field and take time off the clock. Romeo Crennel’s unit did all it could but in the end, it needed more help from Charlie Weis’ offense.

3. Speaking of which…Weis’ announcement hurt the Chiefs offensively.
In two games since news broke that offensive coordinator Charlie Weis was leaving Kansas City for the same position at the University of Florida, the Chiefs scored a total of 17 points in back-to-back home losses. Even though Todd Haley and the players said otherwise, the news proved to be a distraction. It had to be. No matter if your team won the Super Bowl or lost in the first round, your playcaller was gone. All the credit in the world goes to the Ravens for completely taking away the Chiefs’ vertical passing game and forcing five turnovers. But it makes you wonder whether or not Kansas City’s offense would have had more success had everything been status quo with their offense heading into the playoffs. Obviously Weis isn’t the reason the Chiefs lost, but his offense certainly didn’t help their cause.

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Monday morning quarterbacks will bemoan John Harbaugh’s decision not to kick a potential game-tying field goal with less than a minute to play Sunday night in Baltimore. But given the situation, it’s hard to argue with his rationale.

With less than a minute remaining in the game, the Ravens trailed the Steelers 13-10 and faced a fourth-and-2 from the Pittsburgh 31-yard line. Instead of attempting a 48-yard field goal, Harbaugh decided to go for it in order to give Billy Cundiff an easier attempt.

But the decision backfired as Joe Flacco short-armed a pass to Ed Dickson along the sidelines and the Ravens were forced to turn the ball over on downs. Flacco had Dickson open, but he threw the ball off his back foot and didn’t get enough on the pass, which fell at the tight end’s feet.

Following the game, this is what Harbaugh had to say about the decision:

“It was just a tough wind up there,” Harbaugh said. “It was really outside of our range, as we designated going in. We felt like we had a better chance to get the first down.”

Fourth-and-2 is a very manageable down-and-distance, so it’s hard to blame Harbaugh for deciding to go for it. In that instance, he felt as though converting the fourth down was a higher percentage play than Cundiff making a 48-yard field goal with swirling winds. And had Flacco not Chuck Knoblauch’d the throw, Harbaugh would have been right.

The real crime for the Ravens came on a second-and-5 from their own 38-yard line when they were up 10-6 with roughly three minutes remaining in the game. On that play, Flacco either didn’t see or didn’t adjust the play to account for a blitzing Troy Polamalu, who stripped the Baltimore quarterback to help set up the Steelers’ go-ahead touchdown a few plays later.

Some will argue that the Ravens shouldn’t have been throwing in that situation, but there’s nothing wrong with staying/being aggressive late in the game. But Flacco has to make an adjustment at the line so that Polamalu doesn’t get a free release. He came in unblocked and the outcome was disastrous for the Ravens, who missed a golden opportunity to sweep the Steelers and take sole possession in the AFC North.

Ravens (6-2) @ Falcons (6-2), Thursday, 8:20PM ET
The best game on the Week 10 schedule and nobody will get to see if because it’ll be on the NFL Network. What a shame. The Falcons are 4-0 at home this year and have only lost once at the Georgia Dome when Matt Ryan starts. The Falcons’ secondary better be up for the challenge because the Ravens definitely have an advantage against the 26th overall pass defense in the league. Atlanta has the sixth-best run defense in the league but if it can’t stop Joe Flacco and Anquan Boldin then it’ll be a long night in the dirty south.
CURRENT ODDS: FALCONS –1

Patriots (6-2) @ Steelers (6-2), Sunday, 8:20PM ET
After that debacle last week with the Cowboys in Green Bay, NBC deserves this matchup on Sunday night. The Patriots may have been caught looking ahead to this game when they were crushed by the Browns last weekend in Cleveland. Bill Belichick’s teams usually don’t play poorly two weeks in a row but Pittsburgh’s defense has a way of making opponents look bad. That said, the Steelers have a mess of injuries on their offensive line and while New England isn’t a great pass rushing team, the Pats may have an advantage down in the trenches. No offense to the Colts or Ravens, but will this be a matchup of the AFC title game?
CURRENT ODDS: STEELERS –4.5

Eagles (5-3) @ Redskins (4-4), Monday, 8:30PM ET
If Donovan McNabb wants to shut his critics up and prove to Mike Shanahan that he should be the only one taking snaps this year for the Redskins, then a win against the Eagles on Monday night would go a long way. He beat his former team earlier in the season but that was when Michael Vick left the game with a rib injury. Assuming Vick stays healthy, things could play out much differently this Monday in D.C. Perhaps no quarterback is playing as well as Vick is now, but he’ll face a pissed off McNabb that had two weeks to stew over Shanahan’s ridiculous decision to play Rex Grossman in the final minutes of a loss to the Lions in Week 8. Buckle your chip strap because we’re about to have an ol’ fashioned NFC East showdown in Washington this week.
CURRENT ODDS: EAGLES -3

Titans (5-3) @ Dolphins (4-4), Sunday, 1:00PM ET
Outside of the Steelers, no team has attempted less passes this year than the Tennessee Titans. Considering Randy Moss can get a little cranky when he doesn’t get enough looks in the passing game, things might get a little tense in Tennessee over the remainder of the year. That said, there’s no doubt that Moss makes the Titans’ more dangerous and teams won’t be able to stack the box in order to take away Chris Johnson. They just better make sure that Moss sees his fair share of passes or else things could get real ugly in a hurry.
CURRENT ODDS: TITANS -1

2010 NFL Week 10 Odds & Over/Under Totals

105 Baltimore Ravens +1 (43)
106 Atlanta Falcons –1 (43)
215 Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 (47)
216 Indianapolis Colts -7.5 (47)
217 Houston Texans +1 (50)
218 Jacksonville Jaguars –1 (50)
219 Tennessee Titans -1 (42.5)
220 Miami Dolphins +1 (42.5)
221 Minnesota Vikings –1 (40)
222 Chicago Bears +1 (40)
223 Detroit Lions +3 (43)
224 Buffalo Bills -3 (43)
225 New York Jets –3 (37.5)
226 Cleveland Browns +3 (37.5)
227 Carolina Panthers +6.5 (35.5)
228 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 (35.5)
229 Kansas City Chiefs –1 (42)
230 Denver Broncos +1 (42)
231 St. Louis Rams +5.5 (38.5)
232 San Francisco 49ers –5.5 (38.5)
233 Seattle Seahawks +3 (41)
234 Arizona Cardinals -3 (41)
235 Dallas Cowboys +13.5 (45)
236 New York Giants -13.5 (45)
237 New England Patriots +4.5 (45)
238 Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5 (45)
239 Philadelphia Eagles –3 (41.5)
240 Washington Redskins +3 (41.5)

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Every week we have different candidates here, because the 2010 NFL season has been wacky. And that’s okay, as it makes ranking MVP, Coach of the Year and Rookie of the Year candidates more fun. Anyway, here we go….

MVP Power Rankings

1. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—Okay, so Philip Rivers and Kyle Orton have more yards per game, but they play for 2-4 teams. Manning’s Colts are 4-2, and check out these numbers through six games—1916 yards, 67.3 completion percentage, 319.3 yards per game, 13 touchdowns (leads NFL) and just 2 interceptions, for a QB rating of 103.4. As usual, Manning sort of defines what the term MVP is all about.

2. Clay Matthews, Green Bay Packers—I heard someone on NFL Network the other day call Matthews the “best defensive player in the NFL.” Not bad for a linebacker in his second year, who was selected after 25 other players in the 2009 draft. Anyway, Matthews has 9 sacks to lead the NFL, and 21 tackles through five games…and the Packers sorely missed him last Sunday in a loss to Miami when Matthews sat out with a hamstring injury.

3. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers—We’re leaving Antonio on here this week because he left the game against the Rams last Sunday with an ankle injury, leaving Philip Rivers without his favorite target. And then the Chargers lost the game. To the Rams. Gates only had 2 catches for 12 yards in that one, but on the season he still has 31 receptions for 490 yards and 7 TDs (which leads all tight ends and receivers).

Honorable mention: Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles (thanks to Kevin Kolb’s performance last Sunday, Vick got bumped off the list); LaDainian Tomlinson, New York Jets; Brandon Lloyd, Denver Broncos; Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos; Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers; Osi Umenyiora, New York Giants; Arian Foster, Houston Texans

Coach of the Year Power Rankings

1. Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers—If you start the season without your star quarterback for four games, and have the likes of Charlie Batch, Dennis Dixon, and Byron Leftwich at the helm, coming out of that 2-2 would be a huge moral victory. Well, Tomlin came out of that stretch 3-1 and it could have been 4-0 if not for that last-gasp drive by Joe Flacco and the Ravens a few weeks ago. Of course, the D led by a healthy Troy Polamalu and hard-hitting-to-a-fault James Harrison, has helped, but let’s give Tomlin some huge and well-deserved props here.

2. Steve Spagnuolo, St. Louis Rams—Has anyone noticed that the Rams are 3-3, having already equaled their win total from 2008 and 2009 combined. And they’re giving up less than 19 points per game after allowing 27 per game last year—something that has much to do with the Rams’ defensive whiz of a coach.

3. Tom Coughlin, New York Giants—How do you go from the scorching hot hot seat to a coach of the year nomination? Ask Tom Coughlin, who the New York media had being replaced by Bill Cowher a few weeks ago when they lost badly to the Colts, and then beat themselves badly in a loss the Titans at home. The Giants rallied around Coughlin and squashed the previously unbeaten Bears, then crushed the upstart Texans in Houston 34-10, before not allowing the dreaded trap game against Detroit ruin his team’s winning streak. So from 1-2 to 4-2, and tied with the Eagles for the division lead. That’s why Tom Coughlin is on here.

Honorable mention: Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks; Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay Bucs; Todd Haley, Kansas City Chiefs; Rex Ryan, New York Jets; Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles

Rookie of the Year Power Rankings

1. Ndamukong Suh, Detroit Lions—Suh leads all NFL defensive tackles with 5 sacks, and he also has 21 tackles through six games, plus an interception—a pretty rare feat for a DT. Is there any doubt that this young big man is the real deal?

2. Jahvid Best, Detroit Lions—Injury may have slowed Best down, but how about the fact that to go along with 249 rushing yards, Best has 31 catches for a league-high 285 receiving yards among running backs. That’s 534 all-purpose yards through six games.

3. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams—He’s way down the list of quarterbacks stat-wise, but Bradford is averaging 226 yards per game and has 7 TD passes. We’ll let the 8 picks slide for now, because let’s face it—the kid is helping to lead the Rams to respectability.

Honorable mention: Max Hall, Arizona Cardinals; Rolando McClain, Oakland Raiders; Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys; Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals

If you had gotten Mike Tomlin liquored up before the season started and asked him if he would take a 3-1 record without Ben Roethlisberger, it’s highly unlikely that he would have responded with a “no.” He may have even admitted that he would have taken a split without his starting quarterback.

But considering his Steelers were so close to a 4-0 start, he must be disappointed today.

For three weeks, Pittsburgh’s defense had played better than any unit in the league. But on Sunday against the Ravens, their secondary cracked late and Baltimore was able to steal a 17-14 victory in the final minutes.

I’ll be honest, after Joe Flacco threw that lame excuse for a pass to Anquan Boldin on a 4th and goal with just under three minutes remaining (the one that had little to no chance of being caught by Boldin), I thought the game was over. But the Steelers couldn’t kill the rest of the clock and when Flacco got a second chance to lead his team to victory, he didn’t falter.

Flacco completed all four of his pass attempts for 40 yards on the Ravens’ final drive, which ended with a T.J. Houshmandzadeh 18-yard touchdown reception with roughly 30 seconds remaining. Flacco shredded Pittsburgh’s secondary, which failed to cover a couple sideline routes and then allowed Houshmandzadeh to get behind them on the final play. Pundits said before the season started that the secondary was the Steelers’ biggest weakness (save for Troy Polamalu, of course) and it showed today.

But give credit to Flacco. All three of the Ravens’ running backs were banged up and the third-year quarterback stepped up when he had to. There hasn’t been one quarterback (that includes Matt Ryan and Vince Young) who has looked good against Pittsburgh’s defense this year, but Flacco managed to.

Now that Big Ben is set to return next week, it’s going to be fun watching the Steelers and Ravens battle it out in the AFC North.

I had a brutal day in college football last weekend and it carried over into my NFL predictions on Sunday. The Bucs, Broncos and 49ers were all losers, while the Cowboys turned out to be my own winn-ah.

Oh, the horror.

I’ve got a new attitude, a new perspective and a new lease on life this week. I smell a 0-4 4-0 day…

Ravens +1 at. Steelers, 1:00PM ET
At some point, the fact that the Steelers don’t have a quarterback has to catch up with them, right? Well, if it doesn’t this week then it won’t matter because Big Ben is set to return next Sunday. I’m fully aware that Charlie Batch threw for three touchdowns last weekend in Tampa, but I think John Paulsen started at free safety for the Bucs. Baltimore’s defense took a step back in the win over Cleveland last Sunday, but the offense showed signs of life for the first time all year. Ray Rice is banged up, but he wasn’t going to find much running room this week anyway. No defense is playing better than Pittsburgh’s is right now, but I still think the secondary can be had outside of Troy Polamalu (the best, hands down, overall defender in the league in my estimation). Joe Flacco and Anquan Boldin win this one through the air, while the Ravens’ D finally makes things miserable on a Steelers’ backup quarterback.
THE PICK: RAVENS +1

Jets at. Bills +5, 1:00PM ET
The Jets are coming off back-to-back wins and while Mark Sanchez has been solid, I still don’t entirely trust the little bugger. Make no mistake – the Bills aren’t a good football team. But they’re being undervalued by odds makers this week and I’ll gladly take the five points with the home team. Ryan Fitzpatrick breathed some life into Buffalo’s offense last Sunday in New England and while he’ll face a much better defense this weekend, divisional games are generally pretty tight.
THE PICK: BILLS +5

Bengals at. Browns +3, 1:00PM ET
Neither of these teams is any good, even though the Bengals are currently sporting a winning record. Carson Palmer’s game is shaky at best right now and I don’t think a turnaround is coming. Peyton Hillis was an absolute beast last Sunday in Baltimore and if he runs like that again this weekend, he may open things up for Seneca Wallace in the passing game. I always see value in the home team getting points and seeing as how the Bengals aren’t a very scary 2-1, I like Cleveland to get its first win of the year.
THE PICK: BROWNS +3

Colts at. Jaguars +7, 4:05PM ET
For some reason, no matter how good or poorly they’re playing, the Jaguars always seem to give the Colts issues. Last year, the Jags hung with Indy twice and while David Garrard is playing like the second coming of Joey Harrington, the key is Maurice Jones-Drew. We all remember what Arian Foster did to the Colts’ defense in Week 1 and if Jones-Drew can have even half the amount of success as the Texans’ back did that day, then Jacksonville will be able to keep the game close this Sunday. This is also the second time in as many weeks that the Colts have to travel and they’re coming off a game in which they allowed Kyle Orton to throw for 476 yards. I don’t think the Jags win, but I could see a 24-20 finish, or somewhere around there.
THE PICK: JAGUARS +7

While the extent of the injury is still unknown, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh said in his post game press conference that Ray Rice injured his knee in the team’s 24-17 win over the Browns on Sunday.

The Ravens were only leading by a touchdown late in the fourth quarter, but Rice didn’t play on their final two drives so the injury must be somewhat serious. Harbaugh said that he doesn’t have ligament damage, but even a sprain could sideline Rice for the next couple of weeks.

On a lighter note, the Ravens’ offense looked like a completely different unit today then they did in the first two weeks. Joe Flacco played with more confidence then he did last week in Cincinnati while throwing for 262 yards and three touchdowns. All three scores went to Anquan Boldin, who hauled in eight catches for 142 yards and made Eric Wright’s life miserable for three hours.

But while the Baltimore offense played remarkably better, the defense took a gigantic step backwards. They allowed Peyton Hillis to rush for 144 yards on 22 carries and a touchdown, as well as catch seven passes for 36 yards.

Of course, a sand bunker 20 feet high and seven miles wide couldn’t stop Hillis today. Every time he got his hands on the ball he pushed the pile forward and gained positive yards. The Ravens’ have one of the better front sevens in football, so to watch Hillis do what he did today was pretty impressive.

It looks like Jerome Harrison and James Davis will have to fight over the scraps every week, because it’s going to take a S.W.A.T. team to remove Hillis from the starting lineup now.