The 2010-11 NBA season starts tonight (Miami and Boston tip things off tonight at 7:30 ET on TNT) and while most eyes will be on one-name superstars like LeBron, Wade, Kobe and Melo, it’s fun to try to predict who this season’s breakout players will be.

It takes more than just talent to succeed in the NBA. It takes opportunity as well, and each of the 12 players I’ve listed before figure to play a more prominent role than they did last season. I didn’t include any rookies (or Blake Griffin, who qualifies as a rookie) because in order to break out, you have to have a baseline season to start from.

1. Kevin Love, Timberwolves
After spending most of last season coming off the bench, Love has started all eight preseason games and has averaged 18-11 while shooting 14-of-24 from long range. Neither Michael Beasley nor Darko Milicic are aggressive rebounders, so Love has a chance to lead the league in boards this season. I suspect Love will be in consideration for the All-Star team in January.

2. Darren Collison, Pacers
Indiana’s best move this offseason was to acquire Collison from the Hornets. He had a very nice rookie year, but the starting gig is his now and he doesn’t have to look over his shoulder wondering what’s going on with Chris Paul. He averaged 13-3-4 in the preseason, but I’d expect those numbers to rise with bigger minutes. He should be good for 16-4-6 this season.

3. Jrue Holiday, Sixers
Doug Collins is really high on Holiday, predicting that he’ll be a Top 5 point guard in the league sooner rather than later. He averaged 13-4-6 in March of last season and posted 12-6-5 in the preseason.

4. Roy Hibbert, Pacers
Hibbert averaged 12-6 in 25 minutes per game last season, but in seven preseason games, he has increased those averages to 17-9, though he’s shooting just 43% from the field, which is a little worrisome. Still, with Troy Murphy gone, there are a lot of minutes available on the front line, and Hibbert should get his fair share.

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Just two days away from the trade deadline, Marc Stein says that the Miami Heat are stepping up their efforts to acquire Amare Stoudemire.

The Heat emerged from the All-Star break even more determined than they were before to find a third team to help them broker an Amare deal before Thursday’s 3 p.m. deadline.

Miami is “coming hard” after Stoudemire, one source said.

Although the Heat have first-round picks available to sweeten any Stoudemire deal — with the Suns hoping to come away with at least one first-rounder if they decide to trade Stoudemire this week — sources say Phoenix has no interest in taking back Jermaine O’Neal’s hefty expiring contract because, at $23 million, it requires more players to be worked into the deal than the Suns are comfortable with.

Yet one source insisted Monday night that the Suns have not ruled out taking back forward Michael Beasley as part of a Stoudemire deal.

The Suns seem to be more interested in J.J. Hickson than Beasley, which is a little odd. Beasley does have some off-court issues, but he seems to have straightened those out and he’s having a very nice sophomore campaign (16-7 on 46% shooting). His 3PT touch has mysteriously disappeared — 41% last year vs. 28% this season — and he is still a work in progress defensively, but he’s one of the best young scorers and rebounders in the league.

Ric Bucher writes that the Suns aren’t alone in their disinterest in Beasley.

“While other pieces would’ve had to be included, the trade essentially would’ve sent Beasley to Philadelphia, Iguodala to Phoenix and Stoudemire to Miami. The deal broke down, sources say, because Philadelphia wasn’t overwhelmed by the prospect of rebuilding around Beasley. This isn’t an isolated case: the Heat appear to be the team most enamored with Stoudemire, but their trading chips are Beasley and Jermaine O’Neal, aka, a big, fat expiring contract. So far, no one has been willing to bite — underscoring why the Heat tried so hard on draft night in 2008 to trade down and take the player they really wanted, O.J. Mayo.”

That last sentence underlines an interesting point. The Heat felt obligated to take Beasley with the #2 pick because he was widely considered the second-best talent in the draft. But if they really wanted Mayo and couldn’t find a trade partner, then they should have drafted the guy they really wanted.

According to Stein’s source, the Suns haven’t ruled out a Beasley-for-Stoudemire swap, so that still may end up being the best deal that Phoenix can get.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

The Cleveland Cavaliers are closing in on a deal that would bring Amare Stoudemire to town, according to Chris Broussard’s sources.

The Cavaliers would send Zydrunas Ilgauskas and J.J. Hickson to Phoenix in exchange for Stoudemire, one of the league’s most dominant big men.

While Cleveland remains in talks with several other teams, the club, from management down to the players, has settled on Stoudemire as its first choice.

The ball is in Phoenix’s court. The Suns are mulling whether the financial relief provided by Ilgauskas’ $12 million contract and the young and talented Hickson are enough for them to part with Stoudemire.

Cleveland believes the addition of Stoudemire would all but seal LeBron James’ re-signing with the team when he becomes a free agent this summer. The Cavaliers are also prepared to sign Stoudemire, who has one year and $17 million remaining on his contract, to a long-term contract extension once the season ends.

It isn’t surprising that the Suns are the ones mulling this over, as this is pretty much a no-brainer for the Cavs. With Shaq’s salary coming off the books this summer, Cleveland would have plenty of room to re-sign both LeBron and Stoudemire and still stay under the luxury tax threshold. The most important part about that last sentence is that with Stoudemire in tow, one would have to think that LeBron would almost certainly re-sign. I suppose if the Cavs flamed out of the playoffs that both players could opt out and go elsewhere, but that doesn’t seem likely. The acquisition of Stoudemire would also make the re-signing of Ilguaskas far less important. If something were to happen to Shaq, Stoudemire is perfectly capable of playing big minutes at center and has a nice jumpshot to help space the court.

Whether or not Hickson is worth giving up Stoudemire largely depends on what else is available. I’d much rather do a deal with Miami for Michael Beasley, but we don’t know for sure if that offer is on the table. It’s possible that the Suns leaked this information to prompt other teams to step up their offers, and the Heat, facing the possibility of a long-term LeBron/Amare marriage in Cleveland, may very well step up their pursuit.

Hickson is a nice young player that projects to be a quality starter or star in a few seasons. His PER (14.33) is solid for a 21-year-old in his second season. He has had his ups and downs this season, but is averaging 13-5 on 60% shooting in five games in February. Size-wise, he’s 6’9″ with long arms and pretty much is a prototypical power forward in today’s NBA. He already has a solid back-to-the-basket game and a decent jump shot.

However, given that the Cavs are far worse when he’s on the court, it’s understandable that the Suns aren’t 100% sold. Beasley is the more talented player, but he has had character issues in the past and that would give any team pause.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

After the Cavs’ 115-106 win over the Magic on Thursday, LeBron James denied ever lobbying that his team make a deadline trade for Antwan Jamison, or any other player for that matter. (Chris Sheridan, ESPN)

Do the Cavs still need what’s known as a “stretch 4,” a power forward such as Antawn Jamison who can play inside and outside, another pricey piece to add to the puzzle in an effort not only to win a championship but also to convince LeBron James to stay in Cleveland past July 1?

It’s such a good question, we went ahead and asked it of James after the power forwards currently on Cleveland’s roster, J.J. Hickson and Anderson Varejao, both had huge games in Thursday night’s 115-106 victory over the Orlando Magic.

“I never said we needed one,” James said, immediately putting himself at odds with what is being whispered around the league — that James has made it known that he wants the Cavs to find a way to acquire Jamison. “I think our team is built to win a championship, and with the group of guys we have here, if we continue to get better we’re headed in the right direction.”

“So I haven’t really thought about the trade deadline or what guys are on the board or whatever, so we’ll continue to play the way we know how to play,” James said.

Hickson and Varejao combined for 36 points and eight rebounds Thursday night, outplaying the Magic’s PFs Rashard Lewis (19 points, 4 rebounds) and Ryan Anderson (5 points, 2 rebounds).

That’s all well and good, but this is eerily similar to the pre-deadline position that the Cavs found themselves in last year. They were playing well and looking strong, so they elected to stand pat at the trade deadline. We all know how that turned out.

I’m not saying that trading Hickson would be the right move. We just don’t know. But in Jamison we’re talking about a two-time All-Star who is averaging 20.5 points and 8.8 rebounds, even at 33 years old. I think it’s safe to say that he’s going to be better than Hickson for the rest of this season and next.

The Cavs could just be posturing, hoping to get themselves the best possible deal next week. But if they lead another deadline pass without making a move, and this season ends the same way, it isn’t going to be pretty.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

On last night’s TNT coverage, Charles Barkley and David Aldridge talked a little bit about Cleveland’s attempts to swing a trade. First up is Aldridge:

“(The Cavaliers) tried (to make a trade), they really did try. They were all over the place. They tried to get Antawn Jamison from Washington, they tried to get Amar’e Stoudemire, they tried to get Richard Jefferson, they tried to get Shaq. I can tell you this, they were more interested in Shaquille O’Neal than they were in Amar’e Stoudemire. That’s a fact. They wanted Shaq badly and they really tried to get him.�

Then there’s Barkley:

“The Cavaliers made a mistake (by not making a trade)…They should have said, ‘We’re going to keep LeBron (James), we’re going to keep Mo Williams, you can have anybody else we got.’ If they would have done anything to get a big body they would have been better off.�

Rookie J.J. Hickson is just 20 years-old and has shown great potential. He’s 6’9″ (which is the optimum size for a power forward), athletic and has a few polished moves down low…

The Cavs were up 61-51 at halftime, but a 22-8 run to start the third quarter put the Lakers in control of the game, and they went on to win, 101-91. That run included an 11-0 spurt at the start of the quarter, and Mike Brown failed to call a timeout to stop the bleeding. After all, the Cavs are still a young team, so they are not as adept at playing through adversity as, say, the Celtics, Spurs or even the Lakers. I kept waiting for Brown to call a timeout but it never happened, and in many ways, that shift of momentum at the beginning of the second half was the difference in the game.

But it didn’t help that LeBron James shot 5 of 20 from the field. He had a near triple-double (16 points, 12 assists, eight rebounds) but he’d be the first to admit that he didn’t play very well. It’s not often that the Cavs get 57 combined points from Mo Williams, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Wally Szczerbiak and still find a way to lose, but they did just that today.

After the loss of Andrew Bynum for 8-12 weeks, the Lakers have to feel great about completing this five-game road trip with consecutive wins against the Celtics and Cavs. Kobe was apparently battling the flu, but still managed to outscore LeBron (with 19 points) and hit a crucial rainbow jumper with just 2:48 remaining to put the Lakers up six. Lamar Odom (28 points, 17 rebounds) continues to play big basketball in Bynum’s absence, and is doing wonders for the contract that he’ll be signing this summer as a free agent.

So with a 1-3 combined record against the Celtics and Lakers, do the Cavs make a move with Szczerbiak’s expiring contract or do they stand pat and hope for the best? I think they have to do everything they can to win a title (or at least get to the Finals this year) if they hope to keep LeBron next summer, but clearly they have to hold out for a deal that has a great chance to make them better. I think they could package Szczerbiak with Hickson (and maybe a first round pick or two) and get themselves an impact big like Jermaine O’Neal.

Is that worth the risk? Well, O’Neal had 22 points, nine boards and nine blocks in a recent loss against the Lakers and his contract expires in 2010, so it wouldn’t affect the team’s cap flexibility in the long term.

The answer is yes, according to Stephen A. Smith. Bosh has apparently told the team he doesn’t have any interest in staying in Toronto, and Smith said that Miami and Dallas were likely suitors in a possible trade.

Bosh’s contract runs through the 2009-10 season, so he is one of the members of the vaunted free agent class of 2010. Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo is no dummy, so his first step will be to try to convince Bosh to stay. If that fails, there’s a chance that the team could move him before the trade deadline, which is about three weeks away. They should be able to get more for Bosh now than during the offseason since whatever team trading for him will have his services for the remainder of this season and the playoffs.

Smith mentioned the Heat and the Mavericks as possible trade partners. Miami’s major trading chip is Shawn Marion, but he’s in the final year of his contract and most of the league seems to be unwilling to pay him what they believe he is going to ask this summer. For that reason, trading for the Matrix is a dicey proposition. In Dallas, Josh Howard would presumably be the centerpiece of a deal for Bosh, though he has now stated publicly that he wants to stay in Dallas.

One team that should put a trade offer together is the Cleveland Cavaliers. They do have Wally Szczerbiak’s expiring contract ($13 M), so the Raptors could get immediate salary cap relief. They could package Wally’s contract with J.J. Hickson and two or three future first round picks and see if the Raptors bite. It would be a heck of a lot easier to re-sign LeBron if Bosh were already in Cleveland.

I’d also like to see the Bucks make a play for the talented power forward. Would the Raptors take Michael Redd and Charlie Villanueva for Bosh? I realize that Bosh would be unlikely to re-sign unless the Bucks vaulted into the top four in the East, but with a starting lineup of Ramon Sessions, Charlie Bell, Richard Jefferson, Bosh and Andrew Bogut, that would be one of the better teams in the East.

I really don’t know what happened to the Raptors. After re-signing Jose Calderon to a long-term deal, acquiring Jermaine O’Neal to help down low, and the emergence of Andrea Bargnani as a legitimate scorer, the Raptors should be a lot better than they are. They’ve already lost two in a row and they have the Lakers, Cavs and Hornets coming up in a brutal three-game stretch. And now the news breaks that their franchise player doesn’t want to return.

Things are bad in Toronto.

2/2 Update: Bryan Colangelo says the rumors about Bosh not wanting to re-sign with Toronto are untrue.

“It isn’t true,â€� said Colangelo. “It’s a complete fabrication.â€�

“It’s a non-story. Stephen A. got a little carried away. I’ve e-mailed him to talk about it but he’s in bed with the flu. Maybe the basketball Gods have something to do with that. I don’t know where that story came from.â€�

It will be interesting to see what Smith has to say about this. He didn’t cite a source or act like he was breaking a story; he just said that Bosh has already told the team he doesn’t want to return as if it were common knowledge. I’d like to see Smith defend himself here.

2/3 Update: Chris Bosh speaks out about the story.

It was a wild day of NBA action. The first six games were decided by four points or less, and there were a couple of buzzer beaters.

Unfortunately, the best matchup of the night didn’t live up to its billing. The Cavs went through an offensive drought in the third quarter (helped by some solid defense from the Lakers) to give L.A. a lead that was pushed to 18 points in the middle of the final period. The Cavs made a late surge, but ultimately fell, 105-88.

The Lakers won this game in the paint, with good games from Pau Gasol (22 points) and Andrew Bynum (14 points), who shot a combined 17-of-23 from the field. Defensively, the Lakers did a nice job on LeBron, who hit just 9-of-28 from the field and was held to 23 points. Kobe didn’t have a great night scoring the ball (20 points on 9-of-22 shooting), but he might have been bothered by his ring finger, which he dislocated early in the game. He did share the ball well, posting 12 assists in the win.

The Cavs still have trouble scoring if LeBron doesn’t have a great game. They brought Mo Williams in to relieve some of the pressure, but he had five turnovers and shot 6-of-16 from the field. As a team, the Cavs shot 43% from the field while allowing the Lakers to shoot better than 52%. You aren’t going to win too many games with that big of a disparity.

On a side note, I like the look of J.J. Hickson (11 points, 4 rebounds). At 20 years old, he has a bright future ahead of him and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the Cavs starting power forward in a year or two. He’s athletic and has some good moves both facing the basket and posting up. He also made several nice defensive plays in the paint. He looks like a keeper.

About this time every season, the contenders are starting to separate themselves from the pretenders and teams that are struggling to stay in the playoff hunt are starting to look forward to next year. With that in mind, here are four trades that I’d love to see pop up amongst the NBA headlines in the coming weeks. I’ve done my best to make these trades equitable and realistic, but if you’re a fan of one of these teams, or just a fan of the NBA in general, I’d love to hear your thoughts.

1. Shawn Marion for Lamar Odom and Sun Yue
Yes, I know that the Lakers have the best record in the West, but let’s get real – they’re starting Luke Walton at small forward. No matter what the Laker faithful believes, they have a hole in their lineup. Lamar Odom can’t play alongside Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol because he can’t shoot. He proved in the Finals against the Celtics that he wasn’t tough enough to battle Kevin Garnett. Trevor Ariza is a slightly better option, but after a quick start, he’s shooting 29% from long range. Vladimir Radmanvoic? Sasha Vujacic? Come on.

Is Marion the perfect fit? Not really. His three-point accuracy (34%) could be better, but he’s still more of a threat than Odom (32%), especially from the corners. Are there any other holes in his game? He thrived in the Suns’ up-tempo system and the Lakers boast the third-fastest pace in the league. He’s a much better defender than Odom and is far more versatile on that end of the court. Marion could even give Kobe a break defensively by covering the other team’s best perimeter player. That would keep Kobe’s legs fresh for crunch time. (Sun Yue is a throw-in to make the numbers work.)

What’s the upside for the Heat? Well, they can still make a run at Carlos Boozer if they choose, and if that doesn’t pan out, they can re-sign Odom, a versatile forward that can play alongside Dwyane Wade and Michael Beasley. He’s a better passer than Marion (so he can better set up Wade and Beasley) and is every bit the rebounder. Odom had one of his best years when he was in Miami and would be a solid backup plan if Operation Boozer doesn’t succeed. It doesn’t look like the Marion experiment is working, so they should acquire a player they at least might want to re-sign next summer.

See this deal in the ESPN Trade Machine.

2. Michael Redd for Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and J.J. Hickson
Redd still has two more seasons on his deal at the tune of $35 million, but that shouldn’t matter to the Cavs. Right now, it’s all about surrounding LeBron with enough talent to get to the Finals. Redd’s numbers have taken a dip this season, but that probably has more to do with fewer attempts (-2.1) than anything else. His shooting percentage is down (-2.3%), but he’s a career 45% shooter, so there’s no reason to believe that he wouldn’t get back to that level of accuracy playing alongside LeBron and Mo Williams.

Barring a mid-season surge by the Bucks, they are once again looking at finishing in the lottery. They’ve struggled with injuries and may yet make a push, but right now it looks like another year of rebuilding. This trade would get the team out from under Redd’s monster contract (because Wally’s deal is expiring) while also giving the team a starter-quality shooting guard (West) and a nice power forward prospect (Hickson) who isn’t getting any minutes in Cleveland. With Redd’s contract jettisoned, the Bucks would have a significant amount of cap space (~ $14 million) to throw at a guy like Joe Johnson.

See this deal in the ESPN Trade Machine.

3. Dirk Nowitzki for Carlos Boozer, Ronnie Price and Jarron Collins
Right now, Carlos is saying all the right things, but if he has the option of a max contract in Utah and a max contract in Miami (where he lives in the offseason), which do you think he’ll choose? Sure, he and Deron Williams make a nice combo, but with Dwyane Wade and Michael Beasley, Miami is just as attractive. So if you’re the Jazz and you see the writing on the wall, don’t you want to get something in return? Nowitzki would replace Boozer’s scoring and rebounding and keep Utah’s winning ways going. Dirk really needs a change of scenery (to put the memory of the 2006 Finals behind him) and the Jazz would be one step closer to putting together an all-international roster.

For Dallas, it’s about changing things up. They’d get younger – Boozer is 27 while Dirk is 30 – and he’d give the team someone to build around for the next few years. This move would make a lot more sense for the Mavs if they hadn’t traded away Devin Harris (because re-signing with Dallas would make a lot more sense for Boozer), but if they could get a commitment from Boozer that he would re-sign, the deal makes sense. (Of course, as Cleveland fans know, trusting Boozer’s word is awfully dicey.)

See this deal in the ESPN Trade Machine.

4. Mike Miller for Bruce Bowen, Roger Mason and a first round draft pick
At 28, Mike Miller is one of the best shooters in the league and is languishing on a team that is going nowhere. Spurs fans may not want to give up Mason, but Miller is the better shooter, passer and rebounder. Plus, he’s a natural small forward, which would make him a better fit alongside Manu Ginobili on the wing. He would be deadly spacing the court for Tim Duncan’s post play and Tony Parker’s penetration.

What’s the upside for the T-Wolves? Well, they’d get a solid player in Mason and another first round pick, which would give them five for next summer’s draft. They should be able to turn five picks into two (or three) star- or starter-quality players.

See this deal in the ESPN Trade Machine.