Here are my locks (locks, ha!) for Week 11 in the NFL:

Chargers (6-3) at Broncos (6-3), 4:15PM ET
Denver quarterback Kyle Orton is questionable this week with an ankle injury, which means Chris Simms could make his first start of the season. Simms looked Brady Quinn-like bad in a loss to the Redskins last week and I wouldn’t expect much out of him if I were a Broncos fan. If Simms starts, I fully expect the Chargers to load up to stop Knowshon Moreno and force the former Bucs’ QB to beat them through the air. It’s not going to happen and even if Orton does start, how effective can he be on a bum ankle? About as effective as he was last year for the Bears on a bum ankle? The Chargers are hot, have revenge on their minds and are eyeing sole possession of first place in the AFC West. Plus, Philip Rivers is playing just as well as Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Kurt Warner. I’m taking the Chargers to win outright and to cover.
Odds: Chargers –2.5.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Broncos 16.

Redskins (3-6) at Cowboys (6-3), 1:00PM ET
Now that the Cowboys have once again established that they’re still the same inconsistent team under Wade Phillips as they’ve always been, I’m wondering if the Redskins can pull off a huge upset this week in Dallas. Then again, without the brutal play of Chris Simms’ aiding them in victory, I can’t see Washington winning this weekend. In fact, I see this game being a blow out since the Redskins will once again be without running back Clinton Portis and Albert Haynesworth is doubtful to play as well. The Redskins have shown the ability to stop the pass, but if the Cowboys can control this game with Marion Barber and Felix Jones then Washington doesn’t stand a chance. Dallas’ offense should rebound from its horrid performance last week as long as the ground attack can help set things up for Tony Romo and the passing game. Washington just doesn’t have the players to compete with Dallas for four quarters and given how bad the Redskins’ O-line has played this season, they’re going to have trouble stopping the Cowboys’ solid pass rush.
Odds: Cowboys –11
Prediction: Cowboys 34, Redskins 13.

Falcons (5-4) at Giants (5-4), 1:00PM ET
I would love to predict a victory for my Falcons this Sunday in East Rutherford, but I just don’t see it happening. Michael Turner is out with a high ankle sprain, Matt Ryan is in the midst of a complete funk and the defense can’t stop the run. Throw in the fact that the Giants are at home and should be well rested coming off the bye and I see trouble for Atlanta. Ryan and backups Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood are certainly capable of leading the Falcons to victory this weekend and the road team has won the past seven games in this series. But “Matty Ice” just hasn’t looked like the same player as he did earlier in the year and if he can’t cut down on the turnovers than the Giants will prevail. Since both of these teams are desperate for a win, I envision a tight game throughout. But all the intangibles are in the G-Men’s favor and I see them ending their four-game skid.
Odds: Giants –6.5.
Prediction: Giants 20, Falcons 16.

Eagles (5-4) at Bears (4-5), 8:20PM ET
Looking at both of these teams’ records, one might suggest that they’re both on the same level as one another. But nothing could be further from the truth. Outside of Lance Briggs and the struggling Jay Cutler, the Bears simply don’t have the talent to match up with the other contenders in the NFC Wild Card race – including the Eagles. Matt Forte is a good, young running back but he’s useless thanks to an inept offensive line filled with veterans whose better days are behind them (Orlando Pace, Olin Kreutz), fringe starters (Frank Omiyale, Josh Beekman, Kevin Shaffer) and one underachieving youngster (Chris Williams). The Eagles may be struggling at the moment, but they’ve got better overall talent than the Bears and I think they’ll prove that this Sunday night at Solider Field. Cutler has been brutal in night games (not that necessarily means anything) and continues to think that he has to do everything on his own (which means a lot). If Chicago can’t run the ball (they haven’t all year) then Philadelphia should soundly beat them on their own turf.
Odds: Eagles –2.5.
Prediction: Eagles 20, Bears 10.

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]]> http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/11/20/2009-nfl-week-11-picks-predictions/feed/ 2 http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/11/16/turner-has-high-ankle-sprain-ryan-norwood-and-snelling-must-step-up/ http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/11/16/turner-has-high-ankle-sprain-ryan-norwood-and-snelling-must-step-up/#comments Mon, 16 Nov 2009 20:15:49 +0000 Anthony Stalter http://www.scoresreport.com/?p=29170

Jay Glazer of FOXSports.com reports that Michael Turner has been diagnosed with a high ankle sprain, although the Falcons are apparently “very optimistic” that the injury won’t keep their star back out too long.

High ankle sprains can sideline players for as little as 2-3 weeks or as long as six months depending on the severity of the injury. In Turner’s case, it sounds like he’ll only be out a couple of weeks but who knows at this point. The Falcons will be fighting for a playoff spot the rest of the season, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Turner came back earlier than expected.

Atlanta has two capable backs in Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling, although the former can never stay healthy. Norwood has battled concussions and a hip injury for much of the season and hasn’t spent a lot of time on the field.

When healthy, Norwood is a lighting rod and a threat to score every time he gets his hands on the ball, while Snelling looked good on Sunday in the team’s loss to the Panthers. He’s kind of a poor man’s Turner in that he’s a load to bring down, but he has surprising quickness and is a good receiver out of the backfield.

The Falcons could certainly do worse than a combination of Snelling and Norwood – much worse. But the problem is that if Norwood can’t stay healthy, Snelling isn’t the same back as Turner is. He’s more than serviceable, but he’s never been counted on to carry the full load, so Norwood has to recover quickly or else the Falcons’ season could slip away in a hurry.

Of course, Matt Ryan could also help the situation by playing much better than he has. When Turner was struggling at the beginning of the season and the Falcons’ running game was non-existent, Ryan carried the team. But he hasn’t played well in over a month and his performance in Carolina yesterday might have been an indication that he has regressed as a passer. All of a sudden, Ryan has turned into an inaccurate quarterback that makes poor decisions and often bails out of plays (which are all things he never did as a rookie).

If Turner is out for an extended period of time, the Falcons need all three players – Norwood, Snelling and Ryan – to step up and produce or else a second half collapse is imminent. Their defense is young and improving, but it can’t carry Atlanta to a postseason berth on its own. (Especially considering how bad the Panthers tore them up yesterday.)

It’s time for Ryan, Norwood and Snelling to step up.

Let’s put Snelling’s performance on Sunday into perspective. Before he left the game, Turner had run for 111 yards on nine carries for a 12.3 ypc. Snelling took over and rushed for 61 yards on 18 carries (3.4 ypc) and a TD. This was against the league’s 25th-ranked rush defense. Snelling is no Michael Turner, but if Jerious Norwood remains sidelined, he’s a guy capable of filling in for a few weeks, both for the Falcons and for your fantasy team. The good news is that he’s a decent receiver (3-32), an area of the game in which Turner does not excel (or isn’t given the opportunity to excel). Other options at RB are LeSean McCoy, Ladell Betts, Justin Forsett and Sammy Morris. Be sure to check back for our Waiver Wire Watch tomorrow morning for rankings of these potential fantasy free agents.

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]]> http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/11/16/turner-has-high-ankle-sprain-ryan-norwood-and-snelling-must-step-up/feed/ 0 http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/10/18/falcons%e2%80%99-defense-steps-up-in-win-over-bears/ http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/10/18/falcons%e2%80%99-defense-steps-up-in-win-over-bears/#comments Mon, 19 Oct 2009 04:18:10 +0000 Anthony Stalter http://www.scoresreport.com/?p=26969

Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White and the rest of the Falcons’ potent offense may get more attention, but Atlanta can thank its defense for the team starting the season 4-1.

The Falcons beat the Bears 21-14 on Sunday night, as Atlanta’s defense forced three turnovers and stopped Chicago on a 4th-and-6 attempt from the 10-yard line with only 34 seconds remaining. The Falcons also held Matt Forte to only 23 yards on 15 carries.

But while Atlanta’s defense deserves credit for its effort on Sunday night, this game was more about Chicago squandering opportunities. Jay Cutler threw an interception to kill a potential scoring drive in the first quarter and then Forte cost the Bears another opportunity with a fumble at Atlanta’s 1-yard line in the third. The Bears moved the ball at will at times, but often shot themselves in the foot with turnovers or costly penalties.

For two teams that are supposed to contender for a playoff spot in the NFC, this wasn’t a very cleanly played game on either side. The Falcons turned the ball over twice and would have added another had Ryan not pounced on a Turner fumble in the second quarter. Neither team was very impressive and while Atlanta won, I can’t say the Falcons are definitively better than the Bears are after this performance.

Chicago may have found its franchise quarterback in Cutler, but all of a sudden the Bears can’t run the ball. There’s no excuse for Cutler (34) to gain more rushing yards than Forte (23). Forte has definitely taken a step back from his breakout rookie year, which may be a result of all the changes Chicago made to its offensive line this offseason. Either that, or Forte is just running with less decisiveness this year than he was in 2008.

Atlanta has its own issues in the running game. Turner had a nice touchdown run in the fourth quarter, but he finished with only 30 yards on 13 carries. Granted, Chicago’s defense had a lot to do with that, but Turner hasn’t run well all season save for his performance last week in a win over the 49ers. Defensively, the Falcons have issues at cornerback and things didn’t get better tonight after Brian Williams suffered a knee injury in the second half.

There is a lot to like about both of these teams. Save for the first quarter interception, Cutler was excellent once again and gave the Bears a chance to win at the end. The Ryan-to-Gonzo connection looks unstoppable on third downs and once again produced a touchdown. Both defenses are tough, physical and can cause turnovers.

But when you see a team like the Saints destroy the Giants on Sunday and then watch the game tonight, it’s clear the Falcons and Bears have a long way to go.

After hauling in five passes for 73 yards and a touchdown in Atlanta’s 19-7 win over Miami in Week 1, Gonzo followed up that performance with a seven-catch, 71-yard effort in the Falcons’ 28-20 victory over the Panthers on Sunday. He also caught his second touchdown pass of the year after Ryan found him on a 24-yard completion late in the first quarter to give Atlanta a 7-3 lead.

It’s still early, but Gonzalez is turning out to be one of he best offseason acquisitions of the year. He’s such a mismatch on safeties and linebackers that it’s almost unfair that the Falcons can use him in the red zone. And when he’s not catching passes, he frees up Roddy White (6 receptions, 53 yards, 1 TD) and other receivers to make plays in the passing game.

For the second consecutive week, the Falcons’ opponent sold out to stop the run. Atlanta’s 151 rushing yards today were hard earned, because Carolina did a nice job bottling up Michael Turner (28 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD) for most of the game. It wasn’t until the Panthers started to wear down (they were on the field for virtually the entire third quarter thanks to a DeAngelo Williams fumble) late in the second half that Turner popped off a couple decent runs.

But because Carolina stuffed the box in order to stop Turner, Ryan beat them consistently throughout the game. He finished with 220 yards and three touchdowns, although he did throw a bad interception in the first half, which was his first of the year.

Switching to the Panthers, you can’t blame Jake Delhomme for this loss. He finished with 308 yards on 25 of 41 passing and connected with Dante Rosario on an 11-yard touchdown to cut Atlanta’s lead to 28-20 with just under seven minutes remaining in the game. Although his interception late in the fourth quarter killed a chance to potentially tie the game (the Panthers would have needed a 2 point conversion too), he played with a lot of confidence today and certainly wasn’t the reason the Panthers lost.

Carolina’s defense just couldn’t stop Gonzalez and Ryan. Every time Atlanta needed to pick up a third down, they moved the chains with relative ease through the air. The pass protection for Ryan was also outstanding, as the Falcons’ offensive line didn’t give up a sack all day.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Falcons do next week in New England. The Patriots are going to be motivated after losing to the Jets today and if Atlanta can get to 3-0, they’ll be in great shape to start the year.

Injury Front: Atlanta running back Jerious Norwood left the game early in the first half with a head injury. He did not return. First round pick Peria Jerry was also hurt for the Falcons, as he was carted off the field late in the game with an apparent knee injury.

Atlanta turned the ball over three times (leading to 14 points), committed six penalties and had their game plan shoved directly up their asses. They clearly didn’t have a plan for what would happen if Michael Turner got shut down (which is exactly what happened) and it was absolutely inexcusable for the coaching staff to use Jerious Norwood as little as they did.

The three times Norwood touched the ball, he gained 12 yards on 2 carries and caught a huge 28 yard pass that kept the game alive in the fourth quarter. Every time he was on the field he did something positive, yet Mike Smith kept him tucked away on the sidelines like they were saving him for next week. It was ludicrous why Norwood wasn’t more involved in the offense, especially since Turner was so ineffective. I realize you have to feed the horse that got you there, but clearly the Cardinals were executing their game plan to stop Turner to perfection, so Atlanta should have adjusted.

This loss can’t solely be pinned on the coaches though, because the Falcon players were brutal, too. For the first time all season, Turner tiptoed around defenders instead of bowling them over, while Matt Ryan’s two interceptions were out of desperation in trying to force the action. Not that you can fully blame Turner and Ryan though, because Atlanta’s offensive line was absolutely abused by the Cardinals’ defensive front the entire game. They acted like a revolving door to the Falcons’ backfield and really, Ryan was the only reason the game was close in the end because he led the Falcons on a couple of nice drives.

Defensively, the Falcons didn’t play that bad. But where was John Abraham? I know he wasn’t 100%, but 90-year old Mike Gandy made him invisible. And how bad did veterans Keith Brooking and Lawyer Milloy (I know he wasn’t 100% either) look? Milloy took a horrible angle on a 71-yard Anquan Boldin touchdown in the second quarter, while Brooking dropped an easy interception and simply blew his assignment on the most crucial play of the game when Kurt Warner found tight end Stephen Spach for a 23-yard first down conversion that allowed Arizona to run out the remainder of the clock. The Falcons’ three top defensive players were non-existent and the team has a huge decision to make on whether or not Brooking and/or Milloy will be back next year, despite the outstanding leadership that they proved such a young defense with the entire season.

But regardless of the way the season ended, this was a great season for the Falcons. Nobody expected them to be playing in the playoffs at the start of the year and if Matt Ryan continues to develop, we’ll be seeing him in more playoff games in the near future. They have a solid offensive core in Ryan, Turner and Roddy White, a great young coach in Mike Smith, and a couple of young, emerging defensive players like middle linebacker Curtis Lofton, Jonathan Babineaux and Chris Houston (if he can ever put it all together). In the offseason, GM Thomas Dimitroff will hopefully focus on the defensive side of the ball (they lack major depth at corner, could use a playmaker at safety and might need two new outside linebackers) and get Ryan a big receiving target at tight end.

It was a great season for the Falcons and they truly have something great brewing in Atlanta. It was just a bad ending to such a fun ride.

To read the Cardinals’ recap, click here.

Entering their playoff game with the Arizona Cardinals this Saturday, all of the talk – and for good reason – for Atlanta seems to surround rookie quarterback Matt Ryan, head coach Mike Smith and the Falcons’ impressive turnaround from a dysfunctional 4-12 team to an 11-5 Super Bowl contender.

But while it’s fun to shine the light on Ryan and the Falcons’ feel good story, more attention should be paid to Atlanta’s defense. Because it’ll be the play of Keith Brooking, John Abraham, Lawyer Milloy and the rest of the Falcons’ defensive unit that determines if Atlanta will move beyond Arizona this weekend.

The Falcons will score, this much we know. Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White and Jerious Norwood lead an offense that has averaged close to 25 points per game and are playing against a defense that at times, has resembled a revolving door to the end zone this season.

But how will Atlanta’s defense matchup against a veteran quarterback in Kurt Warner that has a trio of 1,000-yard receivers at his disposal in Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston? Can the Falcons’ secondary of Foxworth, Coleman, Milloy and youngster Chris Houston contain the Cardinals’ explosive offense or will they be another victim to Arizona’s impressive passing attack?

The key might be whether or not Milloy is healthy. He hurt his back in the team’s playoff-clinching win over the Vikings in Week 16 and sat out the Falcons’ Week 17 win over the Rams. If he’s ready to go, he’ll play a huge role in taking away an Arizona running game that averages just over 70 yards per game. And if Atlanta’s front seven can contain the run on its own, Milloy can better help in coverage and hopefully limit the Cards’ big-strike potential.

Not many defensive backfields can line up and take on Boldin, Fitzgerald and Breaston in man-to-man coverage, and the Falcons are no-exception. While Dominique Foxworth has been solid since an early-season trade with Denver, Chris Houston is still learning the position and has been known to give up the big play at times. The Falcons will have to commit their safeties to help in coverage, which means Atlanta’s front seven must take away the run on its own.

Another huge factor is whether or not the Falcons can generate a pass rush without having to commit extra defenders. The team has done an outstanding job rotating its defensive linemen this season and it’s led to Abraham having his best season as a pro. He and Babineaux have been fantastic at getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks all year, but it would go a long way in helping Atlanta’s success if second-year end Jamaal Anderson could give them anything in terms of a pass rush.

If the Falcons are to beat the Cardinals on Saturday, it’ll be vital that Ryan and the offense get an early lead by pounding Michael Turner on the ground. This will keep the Cardinals’ offense on the sidelines and hopefully force Arizona to be one-dimensional. If Atlanta can build a double-digit lead, then Abraham and the rest of the Falcon defensive line can think pass first and get pressure on Warner. If they can force a turnover or two, they can put the game away in the second half and bleed the clock with their outstanding running game.

Yes, three of their victories are against the Lions, Chiefs and Raiders. They’ve also gone into Lambeau and beaten the Packers, topped the Kyle Orton-led Bears and in their latest victory, crushed the Saints 34-20 on Sunday. (The only reason the score was that close is because New Orleans scored on a fluke “Hail Mary” pass as time expired.)

Matt Ryan (16 of 23, 248 yards, 2 TDs) has lifted the Falcons to contender-status, but it’s not just him. Michael Turner was a fantastic free agent signing. Jerious Norwood can take one to the house every time he touches the ball. Roddy White has developed into a true No. 1 receiver. Michael Jenkins is finally living up to his first round status. And the defense has been much, much better than people expected.

Speaking of the defense, they intercepted Drew Brees three times on Sunday and returned one of those picks for a touchdown. First-year head coach Mike Smith has completely turned Atlanta’s defense around and the players have bought into his philosophy of playing physical.

As for the Saints, little is going right for them. Injuries have started to mount and at 4-5, they’re two-three games behind every team in a stacked NFC South. Frustration is starting to boil over, too, as cameras caught Drew Brees screaming at Jeremy Shockey on the sidelines on Sunday. Not that Brees was out of line – Shockey looks like he’s already given up. He’s not as involved in the offense as he thought he would be and it looks like he’s not even running full routes any more. There’s no question that Billy Miller is the Saints’ best tight end right now.

These are two teams heading in vastly different directions.