I was watching one of the many Mel Kiper and Todd McShay arguments on ESPN the other day [video], and Kiper was arguing that if McShay has Matthew Stafford ranked so high (McShay currently has Stafford ranked #8), then he should almost be a no-brainer for the Detroit Lions, who have the #1 overall pick and need a quarterback. McShay isn’t convinced that he’s a so-called “franchise” quarterback, so he says he would go another direction. (For the record, at the time Kiper called McShay “crazy” for having Stafford that high, but now he has the QB ranked #3 on his big board. It’s clear that Kiper’s pure hatred for McShay is causing him to slowly lose his mind.)

Anyway, the debate piqued my interest and got me wondering – when it comes to the first round of the NFL Draft, is one position safer than another? For example, if the Lions have three holes to fill (they have more, but bear with me) – quarterback, linebacker and tackle – and they can’t decide amongst the three players, is one position a safer pick than the other two?

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There is no such thing as a “can’t-miss” prospect in the first round of an NFL draft. They just don’t exist. For as much as teams scout and prepare, it’s inevitable that some prospects just aren’t going to pan out, which means they hop the train to Bustville right out of the gates.

Before you check to make sure that you’ve taken the correct dosage of your medication today, I realize that the first line of this article directly contradicts the title. That’s because even though there is no such thing as “can’t-miss” prospect in the first round, this is the time of year to have a little fun by making some predictions.

Two weeks ago, I complied a ranking of the top 5 potential first round busts in this month’s draft. So I thought it was only appropriate that I construct another top 5 ranking, this time of players I deem to be “can’t-miss” prospects. These are first round prospects that I think are low-risk, high-reward players.

Fair warning, don’t flip out when you read names of prospects that are expected to go in the top 10. This isn’t a piece dedicated to first round steals – it’s one that centers around prospects that should have the least amount of risk involved and the highest success rate.

Just as I mentioned in my top 5 first round busts piece, I realize that one or two of these prospects might slip to the second round (see Alex Mack). But on average, most pundits would agree that all five of the players are first round talents.

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SI.com’s Peter King shares 10 draft nuggets that he got from Mike Mayock:

1. “This is by far the worst year for the top 10 that I’ve seen. Down around 18, 20, you’ll get every bit the player you’ll get in the top 10 for a third of the price.”

2. His gut feeling is Detroit’s taking Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford with the first pick of the draft.

3. “I can’t bang the table for Stafford the way I did for Matt Ryan last year. I don’t see an elite player in him every time I watch, which you need to see if you’re taking a quarterback that high.”

4. Mayock, if he had his choice of first-round picks for talent and value, would be around 22. “The value in this draft is at 15 and beyond.”

5. He says eight or nine tight ends will be drafted in the first three rounds. He loves the best of the bunch, Oklahoma State’s Brandon Pettigrew. (I’d love to see the Bills land him, by the way. Perfect offensive weapon for a coordinator, Turk Schonert, who loves to use the tight end.)

6. He likes Eugene Monroe over Jason Smith, if you’re picking a franchise tackle. “Smith’s got a better upside. Very aggressive. But Monroe’s got the best feet in the draft. He’s a really accomplished technician.”

7. He thinks Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry — who Detroit would play at middle linebacker if the Lions made him the first pick of the draft — would be optimally used at strongside linebacker in the 4-3 because he can cover, he can play physically over the tight end, and he’s got upside pass-rushing ability.

8. He’s scared of Brian Orakpo, the Texas defensive end who’s the apple of a few teams’ eyes in the top half of the first round. “Buyer beware,” Mayock said. “He’s boom or bust. I don’t know if he’s DeMarcus Ware or Vernon Gholston. I’ve seen him have some really good games, and I’ve seen what I considered to be Brandon Pettigrew tearing him apart. The point is, I don’t see it all the time from Orakpo, which concerns me.”

9. Of the elite quarterbacks, he likes USC’s Mark Sanchez the best. “He’s the most ready made for the pro game right now.”

10. If you need a cornerback in this draft, sit it out. There are no corners even well above average, never mind great.

Those are 10 pretty solid observations and outside of maybe deeming Mark Sanchez an elite quarterback-candidate, I can’t find fault in anything Mayock said.

In my first attempt to project the first round of the 2009 NFL Draft, I predicted the Lions to take Georgia’s Matthew Stafford with the first overall pick, Alabama’s offensive tackle Andre Smith to fall out of the top 15 and I also drummed up a potential swap between the Browns and 49ers so that San Fran could land USC signal caller Mark Sanchez.

But to paraphrase that overactor Nicholas Cage in “The Rock”: Gee, kind of a lot has happened since then. Most notably the Bears sending two first round picks to the Broncos for quarterback Jay Cutler and the Giants’ release of receiver Plaxico Burress.

Here’s my second attempt at projecting the first round of this month’s draft. As always, feel free to criticize in the comments section, but remember that I’m a human – I have feelings, too, damn it. So be gentle.

(Click here to see Mock Draft Version 1.0)

1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
Mock 1.0 Projection: Stafford
Nothing in the past couple of weeks has changed my mind about Stafford eventually winding up in Detroit. GM Martin Mayhew reportedly wants to trade this selection because of the financial burden that is bestowed upon having the top overall pick, but other teams don’t want it for the same reason. In the end, Jason Smith (Baylor) and Eugene Monroe (Virginia) are both very good options here, but the Lions were reportedly very impressed with Stafford’s private workout and you know what? They simply need a quarterback.

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Lions’ GM Martin Mayhew says he’s open to trading the No. 1 overall pick in April’s NFL draft.

When asked specifically about Jay Cutler and if Mayhew would consider trading the top pick for the unhappy Broncos quarterback, he didn’t shoot down the idea.

“We’re open to all options with that pick,” Mayhew said during a break at the NFL Annual Meeting.

“Obviously, it has value to us, and if it has value to somebody else, then we can talk about that.”

On Sunday, Lions president Tom Lewand told Tom Kowalski of Booth Newspapers in Lansing, Mich., that the team was looking forward to discussions with “agents of players we’re interested in.” Speculation elsewhere has identified the Lions’ leading candidate as Baylor offensive tackle Jason Smith.

Before Lion fans start doing back flips about the possibility of trading out of the No. 1 slot in hopes to acquire more draft picks and essentially get better value for their selections, trading out of the top spot isn’t like shopping for toilet paper. It’s just not that easy – especially when there isn’t an elite prospect that multiple teams are after. (I know Aaron Curry is a stud, but he’s still not a prospect that multiple teams are going to trip over in trying to trade for the No. 1 pick.)

The last time the No. 1 overall pick was successfully traded was in 2001 when the Chargers dealt the top selection to the Falcons for the 5th overall pick, a third round pick and a second round pick in 2002. But Atlanta wanted Michael Vick and didn’t know if he would slide to No. 5 if they waited. Guys like Curry, Matthew Stafford, Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe aren’t going to garner that kind of attention, so I would imagine that the Lions will still be drafting out of that slot come next month.

Rotoworld.com (via KFFL) has a juicy draft rumor about the Lions:

KFFL posted an item late Sunday saying that the website has “learned” the Lions will take Baylor LT Jason Smith with the No. 1 pick in the draft.

KFFL is usually very accurate, but it rarely reports anything and there are no sources cited. It’s also still over a month away from the draft, leaving plenty of room for skepticism. That the Lions have begun contract talks with their No. 1 pick to be makes it possible, however, that they’ve settled on Smith. He is probably willing to take a deal only slightly larger than Jake Long’s.

I’m sure we’ll see a lot of these rumors in the next month. As Rotoworld points out, KFFL.com is solid but this report can be filed in the speculation category.

It would probably be good for me to do an intro to this piece, but I’m going to skip all the foreplay and just get right to the action. And let’s be honest – you probably wouldn’t have read the intro anyway.

Below is my first mock draft of the year. You can disagree all you want, but just make sure you go into detail in the comments section so I know you care. I hate those bastards that trash my work and don’t have the common courtesy to tell me how much of a moron I am in print…

Let’s mock!

1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
Jason Smith (Baylor), Eugene Monroe (Virginia) and Aaron Curry (Wake Forest) are all possibilities for new GM Martin Mayhew with this pick. But the offensive tackle and linebacker positions are deep in this year’s draft – the quarterback position is not. Mayhew can get his franchise quarterback in Stafford, select an offensive tackle at No. 20 and then fill the middle linebacker need in the second or third round. There, I just fixed the 0-16 Detroit Lions in less than 100 words.

2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
If Smith goes No. 1 to the Lions, then I fully expect the Rams to take Virginia offensive tackle Eugene Monroe. With the jettison of long-time veteran Orlando Pace this offseason, St. Louis needs to address their need at left tackle and they’ll do so with either Smith or Monroe depending on who’s available. If it’s Smith, then they land one of the most athletic offensive lineman in the draft.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
The Chiefs could really use a right tackle to pair with last year’s first round pick, Branden Albert, but Curry would be too good to pass up here. GM Scott Pioli put a premium on versatile defenders while he was in New England, and that’s exactly what Curry is. The Wake Forest product could play either outside or inside in a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme and is easily the best defensive prospect in this year’s draft.

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SI.com’s Don Banks has the Lions taking Baylor offensive tackle Jason Smith with the first overall pick in April’s draft.

1. Lions – Jason Smith, Baylor
With six weeks and two days remaining before the draft, I’m still not buying that the Lions are going to take their $30 million-plus gamble on Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford, a junior who looks like anything but a sure thing. I reserve the right to read the tea leaves differently at some point, but the Lions’ smart play to me would be to play it safe at No. 1 with either Smith or linebacker Aaron Curry, and then explore getting a quarterback like Kansas State’s Josh Freeman with a slight trade down from No. 20, or with their second-rounder at 33.

2. Rams – Eugene Monroe, Virginia
No Orlando Pace in Rams horns any more should make this the biggest no-brainer of the top five. St. Louis badly needs an offensive tackle, and it picked the right year to be in that position.

3. Chiefs – Aaron Curry, Wake Forest
The Chiefs can’t possibly miss in this slot. If the Lions go quarterback at the top, K.C. will have their pick between Curry, the draft’s cleanest prospect, and one of the top two offensive tackles. If Detroit goes for Curry, the Chiefs still get the tackle they need in either Smith or Monroe. And if the Lions and Rams both go offensive tackle, Kansas City winds up with the defensive play-maker it lacks in Curry.

4. Seahawks – B.J. Raji, Boston College
This is how free agency and the draft are supposed to work in tandem. The Seahawks signed T.J. Houshmandzadeh this month, so they don’t have to take Texas Tech receiver Michael Crabtree any more. And they added ex-Packers defensive tackle Colin Cole to replace the departed Rocky Bernard, so Raji isn’t a must-have either. But quality defensive tackles are always prized and much tougher to find than starting receivers.

5. Browns – Everette Brown, Florida State
This is much higher than I had Brown going in my last mock (to Miami at No. 25), but Cleveland’s need is for an edge pass-rusher at outside linebacker in the 3-4 defense, and there just aren’t that many choices to be had in that department. Plenty of mocks have the Browns going for Texas defensive end Brian Orakpo, but I hear the Browns don’t like him all that much.

That’s a pretty solid top 5, although Brown is a major reach at No. 5. Still, as Banks notes, the Browns are in desperate need of a pass rusher and need one, if not two starting linebackers for next season.

Banks has Michael Crabtree falling to the Raiders at No. 7, which certainly makes sense given Al Davis’s desire to land the flashy pick. Banks also has Mark Sanchez (No. 8 to Jacksonville) being selected before Matthew Stafford (No. 10 to San Francisco), which is sure a trend that other mock drafts will surely to follow if they haven’t already. (If you’re looking for my two cents, I don’t think there’s any way Sanchez goes ahead of Stafford, but crazier things have happened.)

Click here to check out the rest of Banks’ mock.

The Lions recently sat down and talked with Baylor offensive tackle Jason Smith.

The Lions took a break from free-agent visits Monday to meet with college prospect Jason Smith, an offensive tackle from Baylor who’s among a handful of players vying to be the No. 1 overall selection in April’s draft.

Smith arrived in Detroit on Sunday and spent most of Monday in Allen Park meeting with front-office officials and coaches.

Teams are limited to 30 private visits at their own facilities before the draft. So the Lions, with five picks among the first 82, including two first-rounders, figure to host other top candidates the coming weeks. Most draft prospects have yet to take part in pro-day workouts at their college campuses.

Despite popular belief, if a team meets with a prospect before the draft it usually is a red flag that they won’t be selecting that player. Obviously that’s not the case every single time, but teams usually don’t like to tip their hand as to which prospects they have their eyes on, so they’ll avoid those players like the plague.

But the Lions realistically have their eye on their players: Smith, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Curry. Now, there could be a sleeper prospect that people are overlooking (Eugene Monroe maybe?), but those appear to be the three players that Detroit is focusing on. That said, it would behoove them to meet with all of those players since they have the No. 1 pick. Nobody selects in front of them in the first round, so it doesn’t make sense to try and throw other teams off. Plus, the Lions have said this entire time that they will negotiate a deal with the player that they will select before the draft. So who knows – maybe Smith is the pick.