The NBA free agency period starts July 1st, and as that date approaches I’ll preview this year’s free agent class in more detail. But for now, I’d like to take a look at which teams have the cap flexibility to be major players in free agency this summer. (Mind you, just because a team has cap space, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll use it. Just sayin’.)

Not familiar with the NBA salary cap? Here’s a quick primer…

1. The cap for the 2008-09 season was $58.7 million. The general consensus is that the cap will stay flat or decrease slightly. We’ll assume it sticks at $58.7 million.

2. If a team is over the cap, the only free agents they can sign are their own, unless they elect to sign a player to the mid-level exception (~$5.8 million per season), the bi-annual exception (~$2.0) or to a minimum contract. (The bi-annual exception may not be used in two consecutive years.)

3. If a team is under the cap, they can sign any free agent they want as long as they do not exceed the cap. They can also take on salary via trade up to the cap, so a team like the Grizzlies (with almost $20 million in cap space) could conceivably trade their first round pick to the Suns for Amare Stoudemire or to the Raptors for Chris Bosh.

Here’s a list of the bigger names in the free agent pool this summer:

Unrestricted: Carlos Boozer, Ben Gordon, Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, Andre Miller, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, Hedo Turkoglu, Allen Iverson, Mehmet Okur, Rasheed Wallace, Mike Bibby, Anderson Varejao, Grant Hill, Kyle Korver, Trevor Ariza, Brandon Bass, Chris Andersen, Zaza Pachulia, Chris Wilcox and Drew Gooden

Restricted: David Lee, Paul Millsap, Ray Felton, Josh Childress*, Marvin Williams, Glen Davis, Ramon Sessions, Charlie Villanueva, Nate Robinson, Leon Powe, Hakim Warrick, Linas Kleiza, Jarrett Jack and Shannon Brown

* It appears that if Childress does return to the NBA, the Hawks still hold his rights, so he would be a restricted free agent.

There are eight teams that project to have more than $5.8 million (the value of the mid-level exception) in cap space this summer:

Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Cap Space: $19.7 million
Memphis has been reluctant to spend for several years now and is probably one of the franchises that’s struggling the most in the current economy. I lived in Memphis for three years, and given its small size and overall lack of wealth, I always thought that it would struggle to support a professional sports team. With a core of Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies have to feel pretty good about what they have at off guard, small forward and center. The big decision this summer is what to do with restricted free agent Hakim Warrick. When dealing with bad teams, numbers can be deceptive, because no matter what, somebody has to score and rebound, right? Warrick’s PER (16.91) is #24 amongst power forwards, so ideally he’d be coming off the bench for a playoff team. The Grizzlies projected cap space assumes they make the qualifying offer to Warrick ($3.0 million). Memphis is one of those teams that could really use the services of a Carlos Boozer, David Lee or Paul Millsap, but in this economy, are the Grizzlies willing to make that kind of a commitment? They could try to make a run at Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire next summer, but the odds are long that either guy would want to play for the Grizzlies.

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We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first� and another “shoot-first.� Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone� while another “takes care of the ball.� But really, what makes a player a “pass-first� point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone�?

Taking an analytical approach to these questions, I decided to bust out an Excel spreadsheet and try to come up with some answers. Below you’ll see a graph that attempts to classify the top point guards in the league. But first, a little background…

I chose to categorize each player based on two stats. First, to determine if he’s “shoot-first� or “pass-first,� I calculated the shot-to-assist ratio for each player. The bigger the number, the more of a “shoot-first� mentality the player has. Second, to determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,� I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. I thought about using turnovers per 48 minutes, but I like the idea of including assists so that playmakers are rewarded for the positive as well as the negative. Next, I calculated each player’s Efficiency Per Minute (EPM) to see if there is any correlation between these other statistics and the overall efficiency of the player in question.

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Having dropped Game 1 at home, both the Celtics and the Spurs were in “must-win” mode on Monday night.

The Celtics/Bulls series is shaping up to be a great one. After a 29-point, nine-rebound, seven-assist effort in Game 1, Rajon Rondo turned in a stellar 19-point, 16-assist, 12-rebound triple-double in Game 2, which the C’s won, 118-115. He also had five steals and turned the ball over just twice. If this kid can get a consistent jump shot, he’s going to be a nightmare. Hell, he’s already a nightmare.

Derrick Rose was the best player on the floor in Game 1, but he came back to Earth in Game 2. Ten points, seven assists and six rebounds is a solid line, but Ben Gordon (42 points) was the star for Chicago in Game 2. What’s amazing about Gordon is how thin his line is. He had one rebound and one steal, but failed to register an assist, a block or even a single turnover. Gordon is a scorer and that’s it, but the name of the game is basketball and he can really light it up.

Ray Allen came up huge in the second half with 28 points over the final two periods, including the game-winner with just 0:02 to play. He scored just six points over the previous four quarters. Wow.

Moving on to the San Antonio/Dallas series, without Manu Ginobili, the Spurs are lacking a third scorer, but Tony Parker was able to carry his team on his shoulders with a 38-point, eight-assist effort en route to a 105-84 win. Jason Kidd can’t keep Parker in front of him, which is why I thought the Spurs would win this series, but J.J. Barea came off the bench in Game 1 and did a decent job containing Parker. Game 2? Not so much.

The Mavericks have home court advantage now and they’ve been great (32-9) at the American Airlines Center this season. The Spurs have the 5th-most road wins in the league, so they’re more than capable of stealing a game in Dallas.

With the trade deadline in the rear view mirror and players tied to their current teams at least until the summer, it’s a good time to take a look ahead at the free agent class of 2009. Given the state of the economy and how so many teams are saving up for the class of 2010, some are suggesting that this summer’s free agency could be a “nuclear winter” of sorts, no pun intended. The salary cap and luxury tax thresholds are likely to decline for the first time in years and that has GMs and owners around the league scrambling to cut salary where they can.

There are three types of free agents: players with early termination options (ETO) or player options (PO), restricted free agents and unrestricted free agents.

Players with ETOs or POs

This group includes Kobe Bryant, Jermaine O’Neal, Al Harrington, Jamal Crawford and Mehmet Okur, but it’s highly unlikely that any of these guys will hit the open market given the kind of money they’ll be making by extending their respective contracts. Of this group, Hedo Turkoglu, Anderson Varejao and maybe Carlos Boozer are the only big names that are likely to hit free agency. Boozer has already stated that he’s going to opt out, but he may decide against it if he doesn’t come back strong from his injuries. Turkoglu — the reigning Most Improved Player — is having another nice season, but he’s not playing quite as well as last year. Still, he can command more than the $7.3 million he’s due to make next season. Varejao could stay with the Cavs and make $6.2 million next season, but he and his agent (Dan Fegan) have been looking for more. Varejao wants a long term deal but it seems he and the Cavs disagree on how much he’s actually worth.

For the most part, guys in this group are going to be conservative and play out their contracts.

The NBA trade deadline is less than a month away, so it’s a good time to talk expiring contracts. These are players that are in the final year of their deals, which makes them trade fodder for teams looking to cut salary this summer. I’ll list each player by contract size, whether or not he can still play, and discuss the possibility that they’ll be traded by the trade deadline. I’ll also dig into the strategy that their current teams should and/or could be utilizing when considering a trade.

All salary data is from HoopsHype, and I’ll assume – given the bad economy – that the cap will stay at about $59 million next season. (In fact, it might even be lowered.)

Allen Iverson, Pistons
Salary: $21.9 million
Detroit is 20-15 since trading for AI, and considering the franchises successful run over the past few season, that’s disappointing. But the Pistons didn’t make this trade to acquire AI, they made the trade to rid themselves of Chauncey Billups’ contract, which runs through 2011. Was this wise? Probably not, at least in the short term. Billups is one of the top point guards in the league and is doing great things with his new team. But since the Pistons like what Rodney Stuckey can do (and justifiably so), Billups became expendable. GM Joe Dumars made the deal to give the team the financial flexibility to retool the roster over the next two summers, and with Iverson and Rasheed Wallace coming off the books, the Pistons will have about $26 million to spend this summer. They could opt to sign Carlos Boozer, but would likely have to pony up big bucks to do so. He would probably start at $14 million, so that would leave $12 million to re-sign the 34 year-old Wallace or another center. The team could conceivably sign Boozer, then wait a year, let Rip Hamilton’s contract expire, and then sign Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire in the summer of 2010, giving the team a core of Stuckey, Boozer, Tayshaun Prince and either Bosh or Stoudemire to build around. Not bad. Considering the main reason the Pistons traded for AI was to cut salary, the chances of them trading him (and taking on salary in return) aren’t good. (Though a Marion-for-Iverson swap might help both teams in the short term.)
Chances of being traded: Low

When I saw the headline — “’09 free agents may be better than ’10 class” — I was ready to jump all over David Aldridge for saying that any free agent class could be better than the one that will likely feature LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire. But as I read the full article, he made some sense. I still don’t agree with him, but I see his point.

Here’s a look at the possible free agents in ’09:

Those with asterisks either have options for ’09 or can terminate existing contracts for ’09, and many are expected to do one or the other, for one reason or another:

Kobe Bryant*, Carlos Boozer, Shawn Marion, Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, Hedo Turkoglu*, Mehmet Okur*, Andre Miller, Mike Bibby, Jason Kidd, Allen Iverson, Rasheed Wallace, Kyle Korver*, Anderson Varejao*, Drew Gooden, Stephon Marbury, Grant Hill, Brandon Bass, Joe Smith, Wally Szczerbiak, Zaza Pachulia and Anthony Parker. Jermaine O’Neal could join the group if he walks away from $23 million next season. (Don’t hold your breath. There’s no asterisk by Boozer because he’s already said he’s opting out next summer.)

Aldridge has four major arguments:

1. 2010 is fool’s gold.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that unless seismic changes take place, James is either going to stay in Cleveland in 2010 or go to New York. Maybe Los Angeles. Wade will almost certainly choose between Miami, New York, L.A. and Chicago. Bosh will choose between the preceding cities and, perhaps, Detroit. And that’s it.

Without the Big Three on the market for most NBA cities, the ’10 class loses a good bit of its luster. That’s going to leave a lot of teams with max money to spend on mostly not-max players.

While every year has its own host of surprises, there are always those stories that simply fit the trend. Sure, it can get repetitive, but if we don’t look back at history aren’t we only doomed to repeat it? Every year has its fair share of stories that fell into this category, and 2008 was no different.

Our list of things we already knew this year includes the BCS’ continued suckiness (Texas-Oklahoma), how teamwork wins championships (KG, Pierce and Ray-Ray), and the #1 rule for carrying a handgun into a nightclub – don’t use your sweatpants as a holster. (Come on, Plax. Really? Sweatpants?)

Don’t miss the other two parts of our 2008 Year-End Sports Review: “What We Learnedâ€� and “What We Think Might Happen.â€�

Brett Favre can’t make up his mind.

The biggest story of the summer was all the drama surrounding Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers. This saga has been covered to death, but there’s one detail that never seemed to get that much play. At the start, it looked like the Packers were making a bad decision by moving on so quickly even when Favre decided he wanted to return. But when the news broke about Favre’s near-unretirement in March, the Packers stance became much more clear. They were ready to take him back after the owners’ meetings, but he called it off at the last minute. At that point, the Packer brass was understandably finished with Brett Favre, much to the chagrin of a good portion of the Packer faithful. – John Paulsen

The Chicago Cubs’ title drought is not a fans-only phenomenon.

The 2008 Cubs were easily the best team the franchise has assembled in decades, but they still couldn’t win a single game in the playoffs, and the reason is simple: the pressure finally got to them. Sure, they said the right things to the press about how they didn’t care about what had happened in the past, but don’t believe a word of it; there wasn’t a single person in that dugout that wasn’t fantasizing about being part of the team that finally, mercifully, ended the longest title drought in sports history. Once ESPN picked them to win it all, however, they were doomed. Ryan Dempster walked seven batters in Game 1, which matched his total for the month of September. The entire infield, including the sure-handed Derrek Lee, committed errors in Game 2. Alfonso Soriano went 1-14 with four strikeouts in the leadoff spot, while the team as a whole drew six walks and struck out 24 times. The team with so much balance in the regular season suddenly became the most one-dimensional team in baseball; take Game 1 from them, then sit back and watch them choke. And now that this group has lost six straight playoff games (the team has lost nine straight dating back to 2003), it isn’t about to get any easier. Get a helmet, Cubs fans. – David Medsker

If you’re going to wear sweatpants to a nightclub, leave the gun at home.

If winning a Super Bowl is the pinnacle of an NFL player’s career, than shooting yourself with your own gun in a nightclub has to be rock bottom. Case in point: Plaxico Antonio Burress. Just 10 months after helping the New York Giants beat the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII, Burress accidentally shot himself in the leg while at a nightclub. Apparently the (unregistered) gun was slipping down his leg and when he tried to grab it to keep it from falling, the lucky bastard wound up pulling the trigger and shooting himself. And that wasn’t the worst of it because as Plaxico found out, New York has some of the toughest gun laws in the nation. He was arrested, but posted bail of $100,000 and is scheduled to return to court on March 31, 2009. If convicted of carrying a weapon without a license, he faces up to three and a half years in jail. He shouldn’t expect special treatment, either. The mayor of New York wants to be sure that Burress is prosecuted just like any other resident of NYC. The Giants, meanwhile, placed him on their reserve/non-football injury list and effectively ended his season. While “Plax� definitely deserves “Boner of the Week� consideration for his stupidity, what’s sad is that in the wake of Washington Redskins’ safety Sean Taylor’s death, most NFL players feel the need to arm themselves when they go out. Maybe players can learn from not only Taylor’s death, but also Burress’s accident so further incidents can be avoided. – Anthony Stalter

Barring an unlikely Dallas run to the NBA Finals, the verdict on the Jason Kidd trade is in.

The Nets got the better end of the deal.

Devin Harris is blowing up right before our eyes. On the season, he is averaging 26.3 points (on 49% shooting) and 6.3 assists. On Sunday night, he posted 47 points, eight assists and seven rebounds in a win in Phoenix. The night before, he finished with 34 points, six assists and three steals in a road win over Utah.

Not only did the Nets get Harris, they also received a couple of first round picks as part of the trade.

I wouldn’t want to be in charge of Mark Cuban’s blood pressure right now.

ESPN’s Marc Stein lists the top expiring contracts (by dollar value) and discusses the chances of each player being traded before the trade deadline. Things will be especially interesting this season because teams are trying to clear cap space for the next couple of summers (due to the economy and the free agent bonanza of 2010).

1. Jason Kidd (Dallas Mavericks)
Expiring Salary: $21,372,000
Soon to be traded? HIGHLY UNLIKELY

All the regret the Mavericks are supposed to feel about parting with Devin Harris in February’s megatrade for Kidd fails to account for a few key developments in Dallas. 1. Kidd’s arrival, if nothing else, rejuvenated Dirk Nowitzki to the point that Nowitzki carried the Mavs into the playoffs late last season, which might have been the only way Dallas was going to get there. 2. Kidd is quietly playing quite well this season under Rick Carlisle, leading the Mavs to believe that one successful trade addition to fortify their woeful bench — which they presently are pursuing hard by offering up Jerry Stackhouse’s cap-friendly contract — could keep their Nowitzki-Kidd-Josh Howard-Jason Terry core in the West elite. 3. Sources say Dallas has been rejecting all Kidd inquiries because it would prefer to A) put off any drastic alterations until after giving this group an entire season with its new coach and B) play out the season without taking back any salary that extends past the 2009-10 season and into the free-agent bonanza that will follow.

4. Shawn Marion (Miami Heat)
Expiring Salary: $17,810,000
Soon to be traded? SOMEWHAT LIKELY

Marion’s fate is one of the hardest for folks around the league to forecast. Some teams remain convinced Miami is determined to keep Marion on its books through the end of the season and then let him walk so the Heat can use the resulting salary-cap space to make a run at Utah’s Carlos Boozer seven months from now. Others believe the Heat are willing to trade Marion between now and February if they can get back “star quality” or at least players they like whose contracts don’t extend beyond 2009-10, when Dwyane Wade hits free agency. The strongest thing we can say is that Marion does have trade suitors (like Toronto) and is the most likely to be moved of the players in our top five. Which might or might not be saying much.

5. Mike Bibby (Atlanta Hawks)
Expiring Salary: $14,983,603
Soon to be traded? UNLIKELY

Bibby is a good fit with the Hawks fiscally and on the floor, as an accomplished shooter who plays well off star guard Joe Johnson … without taxing Atlanta’s well-documented financial restrictions. It remains to be seen whether the Hawks will defy the skeptics and try to re-sign Bibby at season’s end, but things have gone so well since Bibby arrived — with Atlanta halting its long playoff drought and taking Boston to seven games in the first round, then starting well this season in spite of multiple injuries — that you’d expect them to knock back any trade interest. One scenario floated this week suggested that Portland is putting Bibby proposals together.

I sure hope that the rumors about Portland trying to acquire Mike Bibby aren’t true. He’s shooting well through 15 games this season (46%), but it’s the first time that his accuracy has risen above the 44% mark since the 2004-05 season and it is largely dependent on his current 44% accuracy from long range. He hasn’t shot above 40% from three-point range since the 2002-03 season, so I expect that number to fall back to Earth sometime before the All-Star break.

The Blazers would be wise to avoid that 30 year-old landmine.

There are a few interesting NBA games tonight:

Utah (5-1) @ Philadelphia (2-4)
The 76ers are off to a disappointing start. Offseason acquisition Elton Brand is more than five points per game off his career mark, and Andre Iguodala is shooting a miserable 38% from the field. Second-year swingman Thaddeus Young is lighting things up with a 16.5 ppg average on 52% shooting. This game will feature a great power forward matchup between Brand and Utah’s Carlos Boozer. The Jazz have been without Deron Williams, but Utah still managed to get off to a 5-1 start. He’s expected to make his debut tonight. Too bad the game is only available in local markets (unless you have the NBA League Pass). Game time is 7 PM ET.

Atlanta (5-0) @ Chicago (3-4)
Three of the Hawks’ five wins have come on the road and they hope to extend their unbeaten streak tonight in Chicago. Unfortunately, the high-flying Josh Smith is sidelined with a high-ankle sprain, but Joe Johnson has been doing his best MVP impersonation (25.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3.8 apg). For the Bulls, Ben Gordon (20.0 ppg) leads his team in scoring, but it’s rookie sensation Derrick Rose (17.7 ppg, 5.1 apg) who is really turning heads. The game is on locally at 8:30 PM ET.

L.A. Lakers (5-0) @ Dallas (2-4)
The Mavs are off to a slow start, but in Jason Kidd, Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard, they can compete on any given night. They host the Lakers who are coming off a long stretch of down time in their schedule. L.A. is getting great play from Kobe (of course) and Pau Gasol, while Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom have been a little disappointing. Trevor Ariza and Jordan Farmar anchor a terrific bench. The game is on NBATV at 8:30 PM ET.