A first-round pick in 2012 and a conditional pick in 2013 that could become a first-rounder based on playing time and incentives? For Carson Palmer?

Put it on the board: Mike Brown just hit a grand slam, then came up in the same inning and hit another grand slam. If the conditional pick winds up being a first-rounder and Brown actually nets two starters with the selections he received for Palmer, then he would have hit for the cycle while doing a handstand and eating a hot dog all at the same time.

Palmer could go on to lead the Raiders to the Super Bowl and Mike Brown would still wind up being a winner in all of this. Palmer was never going to play for the Bengals again. He said as much while digging his heels into the ground and standing firm on his retirement threat this offseason. The Bengals would have been fortunate to have received a third-rounder for Palmer and gotten his salary off the books. Instead, they net a first-round pick and another selection that could turn into a first-rounder.

Granted, we don’t know all the details yet. That conditional first-rounder may only be if Palmer wins two Super Bowls in Oakland and winds up with a bust in the Hall of Fame. But to receive one first-round pick for him was a massive victory for Brown and the Bengals. Let’s not forget that this is the same Palmer whose arm strength and mobility appeared to be declining badly last season and who hasn’t played in a live game (preseason or otherwise) since January 2.

Before I get too swept up in the sticker price for Palmer, let me state that I understand why the Raiders made this move. Due to Jason Campbell’s season-ending injury, they’ve mortgaged their future for the chance to win now. They know that if Darren McFadden stays healthy they’ll remain competitive and it’s not as if Palmer doesn’t know the offense. He and coach Hue Jackson spent time together in Cincinnati, so it theoretically shouldn’t take long for him to get up to speed. Plus, with Campbell and Kyle Boller set to become free agents at the end of the year, Terrelle Pryor was the only quarterback on the roster signed past 2011. Eventually they needed to address the position and had a chance to trade for a franchise quarterback, so they took the risk with Palmer.

That said, I still wouldn’t have made this deal. Not in today’s NFL where building through the draft is still the answer to winning over the long haul. Ask the Packers and Steelers, who have made minimal free agent signings over the years while combining to win three Super Bowls in the last six seasons.

Plus, it’s not like Palmer is in his prime or has won anything of substance as a professional. I would use the term “franchise quarterback” loosely when it comes to describing his talents. When the Bears traded a first, a third, and Kyle Orton to the Broncos for Jay Cutler, the latter was just about to turn 26. The Bears mortgaged their future for a young signal caller who played a position they had trouble filling for over two decades. Palmer is 31 and has already showed signs of decline.

The best case scenario for Oakland is that Palmer just needs a change of scenery and will be motivated to prove he still has a couple of years left in the tank. Maybe he gets to Oakland and has a resurgence just like Rich Gannon did early last decade.

But that’s the best-case scenario. The worst-case is that Palmer’s game continues to deteriorate, the Raiders lose two high draft picks and wind up paying an aging quarterback nearly $30 million to be Pryor’s tutor. (Assuming Oakland still views Pryor as the future, that is.)

For Brown and the Bengals, there is no worst-case scenario. Palmer was done in Cincinnati and if Andy Dalton pans out, the Bengals have already filled their need at quarterback. For once, Brown’s stubbornness finally paid off.

Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- A week after the Bucs were absolutely embarrassed by the 49ers in San Francisco, they turn around on Sunday and dominate the Saints to even things up in the NFC South. Granted, this was the Saints’ third-straight road game and their head coach had to call plays from the bench and from up in the booth after tearing his MCL and fracturing his tibia in a nasty first-quarter collision with his tight end on the sidelines. But still, you can’t take anything away from the Bucs today. They picked off Drew Brees, forced four turnovers and got a 300-yard performance out of Josh Freeman. They were also without promising runner LeGarrette Blount, but Earnest Graham filled in admirably with a 109-yard effort. Suddenly the NFC South is once again tight, as the Saints and Bucs are both 4-2 and the Falcons are only one game behind at 3-3.

- Who would have thought that the midfield handshake would provide more action than the actual game between the 49ers and Lions today? I’m sure plenty of Lion fans were upset with Jim Harbaugh’s excitement following the Niners’ win in Detroit, which is understandable. Considering Harbaugh didn’t have his finest coaching performance of the year, he probably could have toned down his exuberance while heading out to midfield to shake Jim Schwartz’s hand. But let’s make one thing clear: If you’re going to dish it out, you better be willing to take it. And Schwartz has been dishing it out all year in the form of taunting opposing players and nearly knocking himself out with hay-maker fist pumps. In fact, as my good buddy Drew (a huge Lions fan) pointed out following the game, Schwartz gave Harbaugh guff in the first quarter after the San Fran coach challenged a touchdown. Schwartz seemingly shouted “No the rules!” at the 49er sideline. The Niners won and Harbaugh has every right to be excited. Schwartz should have kept his composure.

- For about the 9,000,000 time in my career, I was wrong about the Bears. They screw me at every turn. When I predict that they’ll win, they don’t. When I say they’ll lose, they completely dominate a divisional opponent 39-10 on national television. I don’t understand them and quite frankly, I don’t want to understand them. I have zero clue when it comes to predicting the success or failures of the Chicago Bears, whom I predicted would beat Peyton Manning in the 2006 Super Bowl. (We all know how that turned out and I think it’s fitting that I mention that game on the same day Rex Grossman throws four interceptions.) Tonight I thought Jared Allen and Adrian Peterson would take over the game in Chicago and instead, Jay Cutler and Devin Hester put on a clinic. They were masterful against a Minnesota team that I thought was a tad better than its record indicated. Thus, I humbly eat crow, as I was once again was wrong about Chicago. Congrats, Bears – you mother…

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Tim Tebow hasn’t had many opportunities to take first-string snaps in practice and the designer of the Broncos’ offense is at home right now on his couch. But for all intents and purposes, the rookie held his own in his NFL debut against the Raiders on Sunday.

Tebow completed eight of his 16 pass attempts for 138 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing eight times for 78 yards and a score. And on that score, he took a designed draw 40 yards while breaking several tackles and carrying a defender into the end zone. (Somewhere, Urban Meyer got so giddy while watching the play he screamed to his wife, “Honey pack the kid’s bags – we’re moving to Denver!”)

If it weren’t for the Broncos’ highly conservative playcalling, maybe we could have seen Tebow throw more. But apparently the Denver coaching staff made a pact before the game that they would only run off-tackle on first downs and never, no matter the circumstance, mix in play-action. I shudder to think what would have happened had the Broncos attempted anything but an off-tackle run on first down. It creeps me out just thinking about it.

The Raiders went on to win the game 39-23 thanks to Denver’s hanus defense and horrendous offensive playcalling. Jason Campbell was brutal in the first half but he rebounded in the second to keep the Raiders’ playoff hopes alive. They now have to beat the Colts next week to stave off elimination so yeah, good luck with that, Oakland. (It’s a safe bet that Peyton Manning is going to attempt more than 16 passes and the Colts don’t have any off-tackle runs in their playbook.)

It’s been a long six weeks for Mike Singletary’s 49ers, but they finally earned their first victory on the year.

Frank Gore shredded the Raiders for 149 yards on 25 carries to lead San Fran to a 17-9 victory. He didn’t have a catch or a touchdown, but his 64-yard scamper late in the fourth quarter helped the Niners ice the game.

Alex Smith only completed 16 of his 33 pass attempts for 196 yards, but he threw two touchdowns and more importantly, didn’t turn the ball over. He got Michael Crabtree (4 catches, 57 yards, 1 TD) and Vernon Davis (4 catches, 35 yards, 1 TD) somewhat involved, which is one of the many things San Francisco fans have been calling for over the past month.

On the other side, Jason Campbell was filthy bad. He completed just 8-of-21 passes for 83 yards and was intercepted twice. You would have thought that San Francisco was playing with 20 guys on defense with how poorly Campbell performed. He was atrocious and should get acquainted with the bench for when Bruce Gradkowski (shoulder) comes back.

This wasn’t a pretty win for the Niners, but it didn’t have to be. They have a long road ahead of them to get back into the race in the NFC West, but maybe this victory will give them confidence.

Following the Raiders’ 16-14 win over the Rams on Sunday, a game in which Bruce Gradkowski gave Oakland a lift after Jason Campbell was benched in the second half, head coach Tom Cable wouldn’t commit to any quarterback for Week 3.

Here’s what he said in his post-game presser (from the Oakland Tribune):

“(I) made the switch at halftime at quarterback, basically to just give the team a lift, felt like we needed to change up a little bit and my job is to win games and do whatever it takes to do that.’’

He said the Raiders “weren’t in rhythm, weren’t in synch,’’ and when asked what it meant for the rest of the season said, “ I’ll worry about all that tomorrow, really. I want to go look at it. But today was about winning this game, what did it take to do that, that was the right choice, obviously, and it worked out, and Bruce came in and gave us a lift.’’

But here’s what the team said he said:

Included in the quote sheet distributed by the team was this sentence from Cable: “Today was about winning the game, it does not necessarily mean Campbell is replaced as the quarterback for the rest of the season.”

That’s not what he said, so why would the team try to pull a fast one on the media and attempt to put out a fire that hasn’t even started yet? What Cable said was fine – he didn’t want to make any decisions regarding the quarterback position for next week. And why would he? His backup just earned him a victory when his starting quarterback failed him. Why commit to anything?

Al Davis loved JaMarcus Russell, but Cable didn’t. Russell wasn’t cut sooner than he should have because Davis was protecting his investment. Now Campbell is Al’s investment (he was the one that orchestrated the trade with Washington) and once again there appears to be a conflict of interest.

It’ll be interesting to see how Cable handles the situation this week and whether or not Campbell lines up under center next Sunday in Arizona, or if it’ll be Gradkowski. Something tells me Al would prefer it to be Campbell.

“I see this young Jason Campbell as a football player like I saw Jim Plunkett.”

Oh, Al Davis…you goofy bastard.

After completing just 8-of-15 passes for 87 yards and an interception on Sunday, Campbell was benched for Bruce Gradkowski in the second half of the Raiders’ 16-14 win over the Rams. Gradkowski immediately led the Raiders on a touchdown drive and finished 11-of-22 for 162 yards with one score and one interception.

While he wasn’t Jim Plunkett himself, Gradkowski certainly played better than Campbell, who may be in danger of losing his starting job just two weeks into the season. That’s a pretty amazing notion considering the Raiders thought Campbell would solve their issue at quarterback after JaMarcus Russell had infected the position the last three years.

Perhaps what’s most interesting about Gradkowski is that he’s played savior before. He led the Raiders to upset wins last year over the Bengals and Steelers and some thought that he should have received a look at the starting job before Campbell was acquired.

He may have won the job anyway.

On paper, the AFC West is definitely one of the weaker divisions in football. The Chargers remain the team to beat, while the Broncos are just trying to make it to their opener without losing another starter to injury.

But the West usually produces a surprise or two along the way (i.e. Denver last year), so don’t count out the Broncos, Raiders or Chiefs before the season starts. All three of those teams come with some glaring weaknesses, but it’s not like the Chargers are the picture of perfection.

Here’s how I see things shaking out in the AFC West in 2010. Be sure to check out the link entitled “2010 Question Mark” under each team’s preview, which is a breakdown of one or two potential weaknesses that could derail that squad’s hopes this season. (If the links aren’t available now for some teams, check back because they will be before the season starts.)

1. Chargers

What to Like: After finishing fifth in the league in passing yards per game (271.1) in 2009, the Chargers should once again be explosive through the air. Losing Vincent Jackson is a major blow, but adding a pass-catching back like Ryan Mathews in the draft was a nice coup. Philip Rivers returns after compiling a 104.4 QB rating last season and developing into one of the best signal callers in the game. Again, the loss of Jackson hurts, but Malcolm Floyd is ready for a breakout campaign, Antonio Gates returns as one of the top pass-catching tight ends in the NFL and the team recently acquired Patrick Crayton from the Cowboys. Brandyn Dombrowski has also looked good filling in for Marcus McNeill, who continues to holdout while seeking a new contract. Defensively, free safety Eric Weddle is coming off a great ’09 season, while Shaun Phillips and Stephen Cooper remain steady at their linebacker positions.
What Not to Like: Is there anybody left that GM A.J. Smith hasn’t pissed off? This team managed to lose its top wideout and is close to watching its best offensive tackle (McNeill) holdout well into the season. Defensively, Shawne Merriman is back but who knows how productive he’ll be after a poor showing in ’09, while Larry English failed to impress last season as well (albeit as a rookie). The defensive line lost their top run-stuffer when Jamal Williams was released and Luis Castillo has been living off his reputation for the last two years. The entire defensive line, in fact, is arguably this team’s biggest weakness. The secondary, outside of Weddle, has a ton of question marks as well.
Keep Your Eye On: Malcolm Floyd
The 28-year-old out of Wyoming will finally have his opportunity to shine now that Jackson is gone (or rather, not playing). He’s been Rivers’ favorite target so far this offseason after finishing fourth in the league last year in yards-per-catch average. If he can build off the nine-catch, 140-yard performance he had in Week 17 last year (while Jackson was out), then Floyd could be another dangerous weapon in the Chargers’ arsenal.
The Final Word: If there were another team in this division that I thought had a remote chance of overtaking the Chargers, I would probably have them winning the division. But because the West is so weak this year, the Bolts should have no problems winning 10-plus games and claiming the division again, even though they have a several weaknesses heading into the new season. Whether or not they advance in the playoffs is another story. The key is Rivers, who is an exceptional talent that has proven he can carry this team during the regular season. But the playoffs are a different animal – he’s going to need help and while Mathews looks like he has all the tools to make him a solid young player, relying on a rookie is always a dangerous proposition. Defensively, this team has way too many question marks and unless guys like Merriman or English step up, I think they’re going to struggle at every level this year. A division crown looks to be on the horizon, but so does another one-and-done showing in the postseason.

San Diego Chargers 2010 NFL Question Mark: Defensive Line

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