According to the Boston Globe, there are two distinct things that are keeping the Red Sox from bringing free agent outfielder Jason Bay back to Beantown.

Could Bay return to the Red Sox? It’s not inconceivable, according to a major league source, who said it would take two things to happen. 1. Bay would likely have to accept a backloaded contract, which would help the Sox remain under the $170 million payroll threshold for avoiding the luxury tax; and 2. the Sox would have to extend their budget, after they gave a two-year, $15.5 million deal to Mike Cameron.

Then, where would they play Cameron? He could be used against lefthanded pitching to spell Jacoby Ellsbury and J.D. Drew, or the Sox could use Ellsbury in an Adrian Gonzalez deal. But with Mike Lowell back in the fold after he failed his physical with the Rangers, the Sox have less wiggle room in their payroll and on their roster.

Call it a gut feeling, but I don’t think Bay will return to Boston. The BoSox don’t like to budge when it comes to their payroll decisions, which is why Johnny Damon played the last couple years in the Bronx instead of in Baaaston. In the end, another club will step up and pay Bay what he wants and I think he’ll cash in and move on.

Plus, as the article notes, the Red Sox already have Cameron to play left field so they’ve probably moved on. I think the only reason why the Bay-to-Boston rumors are staying afloat is because no other team has stepped up and signed him yet and it doesn’t sound like he’s even close to striking a deal with another club.

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According to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, the Red Sox may be more interested in outfielder Matt Holliday than Jason Bay.

Under baseball’s warped draft-pick compensation system, a high-revenue team that exchanges one Type A free agent for another actually nets an extra pick — a supplemental choice between the first and second rounds.
Oh, but this gets better.

If the Sox lose Bay and sign both Holliday and free-agent shortstop Marco Scutaro, they not only will receive the same number of selections, but also might end up in better draft positions.

Signing Holliday would cost the Sox their first-round pick. Signing Scutaro, a lower-ranking free agent, would cost them their second- round selection.

But, if the Sox lose Bay after offering him salary arbitration, they will gain two picks — a likely first-rounder and the sandwich pick.

The only ways the Sox would wind up with a second-rounder for Bay is if (a) the team that signed him ranked in the bottom 15 of the overall standings last season or (b) the team that signed him added a higher- ranking free agent as well.

Well, isn’t this an interesting web that Boston is weaving. If Theo Epstein can land a Type A outfielder on top of landing two draft picks then he’ll set up the Red Sox for both the present and future.

But would they be making the right decision in going with Holliday over Bay? Holliday was fantastic as soon as he got to St. Louis, but he had a hard time adjusting to American League pitching when he first got to Oakland and could struggle long-term in Boston. On the flip side, Bay has already proven that he can hit in both leagues and appears willing to stay in Boston for the right price.

Epstein has some big decisions to make over the next month or two.

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At least, this according to WEEI.com:

Speaking at an event to honor Red Sox principal owner John Henry, who received the Woodrow Wilson Award for corporate sponsorship, team president/CEO Larry Lucchino expressed his organization’s desire to re-sign Jason Bay.

“Very much so,” Lucchino said when asked if the Red Sox wanted the outfielder back. “We’d love to have him back. He’s in many ways the personification of a player we want here.”

The Red Sox’ exclusive period to negotiate with Bay runs out at midnight Thursday.

Bay will draw plenty of interest on the open market, but the Red Sox certainly have the cash to re-sign him. It just depends on whether or not a more lucrative offer comes along and Bay bites on it. (Translation: It just depends on whether or not Bay wants to go the way of CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira and play for the Yankees next season.)

What will be interesting is whether or not he heads back to the NL on his own accord. He has proven that he can produce in either league, but usually hitters want to play in the NL because of the weaker pitching. Any number of teams could use Bay’s services, but it’ll all depend on which team will open up its wallet and which ones he feels gives him an opportunity to win.

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