While some enthusiasts will argue otherwise, there’s usually not a lot of change from one year to the next in baseball. Most pundits expect the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Angels, Cardinals, Twins, Dodgers and Rockies (all eight teams that made the playoffs in 2009) to be good again this year. MLB isn’t like the NFL where teams make unexpected playoff runs every year.

That said, that doesn’t mean there aren’t a couple of sleepers to watch out for in 2010. Below are five clubs that didn’t make the postseason last year that have the best odds (in my estimation) of making the playoffs this season.

1. Chicago White Sox
If you read the 2010 MLB season preview, you’re not surprised to see the White Sox at the top of this list. As long as Jake Peavy stays healthy, Chicago arguably has the best starting rotation one through five in the American League. (Boston fans may argue otherwise, but Boston fans can also shove off…just kidding…although not really.) But the key to the Chi Sox’s success this season lies in their offense. Yes, I’m banking on veterans Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios, Mark Teahen, Paul Konerko and Mark Kotsay to have productive years and yes, that may be asking a lot. But Gordon Beckham looks like a star in the making and the addition of Juan Pierre gives the Sox a solid leadoff hitter. I’m well aware that Chicago could finish third in a three-team race in the AL Central, but their pitching is going to keep them competitive all season and I’m willing to bet that their offense won’t be as bad as many believe.

2. Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have all the pieces in place to not only compete for the AL Wild Card, but also unseat the Angels in the AL West. Along with Felix Hernandez, the acquisition of Cliff Lee now gives Seattle the best 1-2 punch in the American League outside of Boston’s Josh Beckett and John Lackey. The problem is that the lineup lacks major punch. Chone Figgins and Ichiro give the M’s quality bats at the top of the order, but can this team score enough runs on a nightly basis? The club has been built on pitching and defense but if they want to make the postseason, the Mariners will have to prove that they can overcome a powerless lineup.

3. Atlanta Braves
Many people view the Braves as favorites to win the NL Wild Card this season – and for good reason. Their starting pitching looks awfully good, especially if Tim Hudson can rebound and Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson don’t regress in their development. But how successful the Braves are this year depends on their offense. Chipper Jones, Troy Glaus and Nate McLouth are the perfect complements to Martin Prado, Brian McCann, Yunel Escobar, Jason Heyward and Melky Cabrera. But Jones, Glaus and McClouth have to stay healthy or else this team is doomed and Heyward has to be productive as a rookie. Is it asking too much for guys like Jones, Glaus and Billy Wagner to rebound? Maybe. But you still have to like the Braves’ chances this year based on their pitching and Heyward’s potential.

4. Tampa Bay Rays
If I didn’t have such a wild hair up my ass about the White Sox’s chances this year and if they didn’t play in such a competitive division, then the Rays would have probably found themselves ranked second or third on this list. But I go back and forth with how I feel about them. One moment I’m ready to crown them AL Wild Card champs and the next I’m convinced they’ll finish no higher than third in the AL East. Their pitching scares me, although I’m well aware that David Price, James Shields, Matt Garza and Jeff Niemann have the ability to keep the Rays competitive all season. I just wish an ace would emerge from the group so I can sleep better at night. The offense is stacked with guys that can hit for average (Carl Crawford, Jason Bartlett, Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria), power (Zobrist, Longoria, Carlos Pena) and speed (Crawford, Bartlett, B.J. Upton), but the key might be whether or not Upton can rebound. If he can and the starting rotation is consistent throughout the year, then I’m back to thinking the Rays are a serious Wild Card contender. If he can’t and the rotation is average, then this club has a ceiling on its success in 2010.

5. Chicago Cubs
Two years ago, the Cubs won 97 games – the second most in baseball behind the Angels and tied with the Rays. Then last year, they infected themselves with Milton Bradley, Geovanny Soto forgot how to play and injuries limited Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano. This year, the Bradley infection has cleared and Soto has vowed to rebound from his sophomore slump. If Ramirez and Soriano can stay healthy, they’ll team up with Derrek Lee to form the makings of a solid offense. The starting pitching is above average too, although Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly have to stay healthy and Carlos Silva can’t be the disaster he was last year. The Cubs have their flaws, but they also have the makings of a solid club and could sneak up on teams this season. They probably won’t unseat the Cardinals in the NL Central, but a NL Wild Card berth is certainly not out of the question.

The Next Five:

6. San Francisco Giants
7. Texas Rangers
8. New York Mets
9. Detroit Tigers
10. Arizona Diamondbacks

I wouldn’t be shocked if any of these five teams made the postseason in their respective leagues, but all five of them have major flaws that they’ll have to overcome. The Giants have great pitching, but GM Brian Sabean has ruined that great pitching by fielding a horrible offense outside of stud Pablo Sandoval. The Rangers have the opposite problem – they can hit, but their pitching is a question mark. The Mets have enough offense, but the organization is cursed (if you don’t believe in curses, have a couple of beers with a Mets fan and see if they can’t change your mind) and their pitching is a joke outside of Johan Santana. The Tigers have two MVP-caliber pieces in Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, but whether or not the front office is committed to winning is a question that won’t be answered until after the All-Star Break. The Diamondbacks have a promising offense, but it’s also inexperienced and Brandon Webb’s injury is obviously a major concern.

Photo from fOTOGLIF
]]> http://www.scoresreport.com/2010/04/02/five-new-playoff-contenders-for-the-2010-mlb-season/feed/ 0 http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/06/27/american-league-all-star-voting-who-is-leading-and-who-should-be/ http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/06/27/american-league-all-star-voting-who-is-leading-and-who-should-be/#comments Sat, 27 Jun 2009 19:00:12 +0000 Mike Farley http://www.scoresreport.com/?p=20674 It’s always funny how the voting for the Major League Baseball All-Star game shakes out, and it’s generally more of a popularity contest than anything. That, or the more familiar names like Derek Jeter, David Wright and Manny Ramirez always generate lots of attention. Well, since we’re about 75 games in, and the mid-summer classic is two and a half weeks away, I decided to look at the current vote leaders and make my own picks of who I think should be in there. First the American League — and next week, the National. Here we go….

First base
Leader: Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
Mike’s pick: Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins. It’s kind of hard to argue with Teixeira’s numbers, short porch in right or not. He’s got 20 homers, 57 RBI, 20 doubles, and a .280 average (and in the field, zero errors). You can make a case for Carlos Pena (22 homers), but he’s batting .236. Morneau is batting .315, and has 16 homers (let’s say he’d have 20 if he played in Yankee Stadium), and more RBI than Teixeira (58). And he’s only made one error.

Second base
Leader: Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
Mike’s pick: Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays. I love a good comeback story, and this is it. Hill doesn’t have as many homers as Kinsler (17 to Kinsler’s 18), but he is hitting for a higher average (.306 to .268) with more RBI (52 to 49). Sure, Kinsler has 16 steals to 2 for Hill, but I’m sticking with my comeback story.

Shortstop
Leader: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
Mike’s pick: Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay Rays. Jeter’s having a good season, but Bartlett is leading the American League in batting with a sick .363 average. Even after spending some time on the DL, Bartlett still has 7 homers, 35 RBI, 13 doubles, 3 triples and 15 steals…..pretty awesome numbers for a shortstop.

Third base
Leader: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
Mike’s pick: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays. With a nod to Chone Figgins and his .325 average with 23 stolen bases, Longoria has delivered at a power position with 16 home runs, 62 RBI, 24 doubles and a .312 batting average.

Catcher:
Leader: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
Mike’s pick: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins. Hey, these voters aren’t doing a bad job after all! This is an easy one, though. Mauer is batting almost .400 (.396) with 14 homers and 43 RBI, and a staggering .695 slugging percentage that leads the American League.

Outfield
Leaders: Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers
Mike’s picks: Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox—It’s hard to argue with 19 homers, 69 driven in (leads the AL) and a respectable .278 average, especially when Big Papi has struggled. Manny who?
Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels—He’s currently fourth in the voting, but he should be higher. 17 dingers, 56 RBI, and he’s batting .309 with 12 stolen bases.
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays—The Rays are running on everyone, and this guy leads them and the world with 38 stolen bases. He’s also batting .314 with 6 homers and 35 RBI.

Starting pitcher
As you all know, pitchers are chosen by the managers and announced shortly before the all-star break.
Mike’s pick: Zach Greinke, Kansas City Royals. The guy got off to a blistering start, when the Royals stunned everyone by spending more than a few days in first place. He’s cooled off, but Greinke is still 9-3 on a team that’s 31-41, he has a stellar 1.90 ERA, and he’s second in the AL with 111 strikeouts to just 18 walks in 109 innings.

Relief pitcher
Mike’s pick: Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox. Okay, so he’s not leading the league in saves (he has 17 and the Angels’ Brian Fuentes has 20). But Papelbon sports a 1.97 ERA and 33 K’s in 32 innings. And he just has that sick “you can’t hit me” demeanor.

Source: Baseball Reference

We’re approaching Memorial Day and are already about a quarter of the way through the baseball regular season. Some players historically take a while to get going, and some start off blazing hot and then cool off. Here we take a look at five pleasant surprises, and five busts through the first 40 or so games of the 2009 season.

Top 5 Suprises

1. Zack Greinke, SP, Kansas City Royals—One of the reasons the Royals are off to a great start is that Greinke has found his rhythm, to the tune of 7-1 with a 0.82 ERA, as well as 73 strikeouts and 12 walks in just 66 innings. Greinke has given up a microscopic six earned runs so far. Six! It’s not like the kid wasn’t talented, but his career record before 2009 was 34-45 and his ERA 3.96.

2. Jason Bartlett, SS, Tampa Bay Rays—Before this season, Bartlett was a career .285 hitter with 16 career home runs. So far this season, he’s off to a wicked start–.376 batting average, 6 homers, 23 RBI, 9 doubles, 12 stolen bases and an OPS of 1.004.

3. Raul Ibanez, OF, Philadelphia Phillies—This is looking like the free agent signing of the off-season. Or maybe coming over to the world champs from soggy Seattle was a good move. Ibanez was a respectable .288 hitter and was averaging 22 homers and 95 RBI, but so far in 2009 he’s hit 15 home runs and driven in 40 runs, while hitting .349 with 10 doubles, 4 stolen bases and a .724 slugging percentage. You think the Mets should have made a run at the guy instead of wasting all that money on P Ollie Perez?

4. Aaron Hill, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays—It’s not like Hill didn’t have potential, but an injury de-railed him in 2008. Maybe he’s come back with a bionic bat, because he’s hitting .352 with 11 homers and 35 RBI. Before this season, Hill’s career high in home runs was 17, so at his current pace he will shatter that mark..

5. Shairon Martis, SP, Washington Nationals—Who? I mean, who? But here is this Nats’ pitcher with a blistering 5-0 record on a team that’s 12-28, worst record in the majors. If you’re keeping score at home, that means Martis has 42% of his team’s wins.

Honorable mention: Trevor Hoffman, RP, Milwaukee Brewers—Since coming off the DL to start the season, Hoffman is 11 for 11 in save opportunities in 12 innings pitched with 10 strikeouts for his new team.

Top 5 Busts

1. David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox—Okay, so maybe he’s injured and all, but did anyone expect this? Ortiz is batting .211 with one home run and 18 batted in with a .324 slugging percentage. To put that in perspective, his career averages are 35 homers, 120 RBI, .285 average and .547 slugging percentage. Something is afoot at Fenway, dude.

2. Chien-Ming Wang, SP, New York Yankees—This is almost unfair because Wang is currently rehabbing an injury, but still. Wang had 38 wins in 2006 and 2007 combined, and this season got off to a rocky 0-3 start with an astronomical 34.50 ERA—giving up 23 hits and 23 earned runs in just six innings of work. Yikes.

3. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia Phillies—It’s a good thing the Phils picked up Ibanez, because their perennial MVP candidate is batting just .234 with 2 homers and 15 batted in with only 5 stolen bases and 1 triple. Rollins has never been a huge power guy, but he’s averaged .276 with 38 steals per season over the course of his career.

4. Cliff Lee, SP, Cleveland Indians—The reigning AL Cy Young was 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA in 2008. This year he’s off to a 2-5 start but his ERA is still a very respectable 2.90. You can blame this one on the Tribe’s inability to score runs like they normally do.

5. Brian Giles, OF, San Diego Padres—Sure, he’s getting long in the tooth, but Brian Giles is a lifetime .291 hitter who averages 25 homers and 95 batted in. In 2009, he’s off to a .161 start, with 2 homers and 15 RBI, and a paltry .235 slugging percentage.

Honorable mention: Jason Giambi, DH, Oakland Athletics—You’d think the change of scenery would energize Giambi, but he’s hitting just .208 with 3 home runs and 18 RBI so far.

Source: Baseball Reference

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

Before your 2009 fantasy baseball draft kicks off this year, do yourself a favor and repeat this three or four times to yourself: I will draft a shortstop in the first nine rounds.

Not unlike third basemen, the shortstop position is weak this season. After Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins come off the board in the first two rounds, you’re left with roughly eight shortstops that will give you adequate to good production this season. We project those eight shortstops to be selected anywhere between the fifth and ninth round in standard mixed leagues, which is why we suggest nabbing one before the conclusion of the ninth.

The good news is that in a 12-team league, you’ll definitely have the opportunity to land one of the big three (Ramirez, Reyes, Rollins) or scoop up one of the eight adequate-to-good shortstops that we’re referring to. The bad news is that shortstops can start flying off the board quickly and if you’re selecting in a snake draft, you could wind up on the wrong end of the spectrum when the run starts.

That’s why to be safe, you will draft a shortstop in one of the first nine rounds because you don’t want to be the guy that’s trying to figure out whether or not Edgar Renteria will bounce back now that he’s in the NL again, or having to choose between Orlando Cabrera’s consistent .280 batting average and Khalili Greene’s 25-plus home run potential. (Side note: If you do wind up being that guy come draft day, it might be wise to select two shortstops back to back and hope you catch lightning in a bottle with one of them.)

Obviously you still want to be smart on draft day; we’re not advising you to take Derek Jeter in the third because you’re spooked about failing to grab a shortstop before the ninth round. But taking one of the top 11 shortstops a round early might not be a bad idea considering what you’ll be left with later on.

After Ramirez, Reyes and Rollins come off the board, here are the eight shortstops we’d suggest taking before the ninth round ends:

Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks
In his third season with the D-Backs last year, Drew was only the third shortstop in major league history to finish with 40 doubles, 20 home runs and 10 triples in 2008. At 26 years old, his ceiling is sky high right now as he enters the prime of his career and there is no doubt that he’s one of the bright young stars in baseball. If he builds off the success he had last year, Drew could easily hit 25 home runs, knock in 75 RBI, score 100 runs and chip in five stolen bases. He probably won’t sniff the .300-mark in terms of batting average, but he should be right around .290.

Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
Tulowitzki exploded onto the scene in 2007, helping the Rockies make a World Series appearance and setting a record for most home runs (20) in a season by an NL rookie shortstop. But injuries destroyed what was supposed to be a promising second season in 2008 and he obviously fell short of expectations. Still, he hit .300 over the second half of the season last year and he should once again build on his promising young career. He has the potential to hit 20-plus home runs, knock in 80 RBI, score 90 runs and add 10 stolen bases along with his .290 average. Tulowitzki is a star in the making and definitely one of the better young shortstops in the game.

Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox
Potential could be the one word to describe the Sox’s young shortstop. Ramirez has 20-home run and 20-stolen base potential and he could easily average .290 and score 100 runs. The one thing to keep in mind about him, however, is that last year was his breakout campaign and he could regress in ’09. Still, with Orlando Cabrera moving on in free agency, Ramirez will get every opportunity to build on his rookie performance and should have plenty of fantasy potential hitting in front of Carlos Quentin in the two-hole.

Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians
With most of the Tribe hitters taking a step back in ’08, Peralta came through with a fine season. If Travis Hafner is healthy again this year, Peralta will move back to the third or fifth spot in the order (he was hitting cleanup in Hafner’s absence last season) and should hit 25-plus home runs. He does strike out a lot and his average will probably teeter around .275, but he’ll also give you 80-plus RBI and score 100-plus runs. There’s talk of him moving to third base this year so keep an eye on that, but he’ll still qualify as a shortstop in all leagues.

Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
Tried and true – Jeter is more than capable of giving you quality production day in and day out. At 35 years old, his numbers are definitely on the decline but that doesn’t mean the veteran will crash and burn in 2009. He might not hit 20 home runs or steal 20 bases this year, but you can probably bank on 15 dingers and 15 swiped bags. Just don’t overvalue him, because there’s no doubt someone will based on name recognition alone.

Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers
Obviously he’s a major injury risk, but if he’s healthy there’s no reason to believe Furcal can’t pick up where he left off in April of last year when he hit .367. He also returns to familiar stomping grounds after re-signing with the Dodgers, and he should have every opportunity to top 15 home runs and swipe 35-plus bases. Some owners will look at his name and take a pass given his age and injury concerns, but Furcal could be worth the risk come draft day, especially depending on how far he falls.

J.J. Hardy, Milwaukee Brewers
If you can put up with Hardy’s streaky production, he’s liable to blast 25 home runs, drive in 75 RBI and bat around .280. Depending on how your first five or six rounds turn out, the addition of Hardy could give you a boost in the power department without killing your team’s overall batting average. Not a lot of owners will jump at the opportunity to select him, but Hardy is an underrated player and after hitting 20-plus home runs the last two seasons, he looks like a reliable option.

Michael Young, Texas Rangers
Some owners might choose to go with a young sleeper like KC’s Mike Aviles over an aging vet like Young, but keep in mind how good the Rangers’ offense was last year. Young has the potential to hit .300 with12 dingers, knocking in 82 RBI and scoring 102 runs at the top of Texas’s lineup. Aviles might hit .300 again with 10-plus home runs, but it’s doubtful he brings what Young does to the table in terms of RBI and run production.

Here is our official ranking of shortstops. Remember that all of these players qualify for your middle infield position, so don’t fall asleep and miss out on taking a potential sleeper or consistent veteran shortstop in later rounds.

1. Hanley Ramirez, FLA
2. Jose Reyes, NYM
3. Jimmy Rollins, PHI
4. Stephen Drew, ARI
5. Troy Tulowitzki, COL
6. Alexei Ramirez, CHW
7. Jhonny Peralta, CLE
8. Derek Jeter, NYY
9. Rafael Furcal, LAD
10. J.J. Hardy, MIL
11. Michael Young, TEX
12. Mike Aviles, KC
13. Miguel Tejada, HOU
14. Yunel Escobar, ATL
15. Orlando Cabrera, OAK
16. Elvis Andrus, TEX
17. Edgar Renteria, SF
18. Jason Bartlett, TB
19. Ryan Theriot, CHC
20. Khalil Greene, STL
21. Jed Lowrie, BOS

For six innings, Boston ace Daisuke Matsuzaka was un-hittable. Literally.

The Rays didn’t record their first hit until Carl Crawford singled to lead off the top of the seventh. But once Crawford reached, Cliff Floyd followed with a single of his own, moving Crawford to third and all of a sudden Tampa was in business despite trailing 1-0 since the top of the fifth.

This is the situation where good teams – World Series contender or other – score that runner from third with less than two outs. But the Rays failed to do so as Dice-K got Dioner Navarro to fly out to left, then struck out Gabe Gross before finishing off Jason Bartlett with a fielder’s choice to the shortstop.

Inning over.

Again the Rays struck in the bottom of the eighth after the first two batters reached safely to start the inning. Yet once again they came away with nothing as the Boston bullpen got Carlos Pena to fly out to right and Evan Longoria to ground into a double play.

In nine innings Friday night, the Sox showed what it takes to be a champion. They’ve still got a long way to go in their chase to defend their title, especially with how good Tampa is. But great teams separate themselves in these types of games and the performances by Matsuzaka, Dustin Pedroia and the BoSox bullpen were outstanding.

That said, Rays’ starter James Shields was phenomenal and on a normal night when the Rays’ bats are on, he walks away from such a masterful performance with a victory. And Tampa will learn a lot from a game like this and it’ll be interesting to see how they respond in Game 2 on Saturday night.