In the interest of full disclosure, I’ve been waiting to write this piece for the last couple of weeks. With the way that the Thunder had been closing games, I knew it was just a matter of time before they’d be eliminated from the Playoffs and I have been thinking about the different directions that the franchise can go from here.

After watching both the Memphis and Dallas series, I have come to this conclusion: Oklahoma City can not win a title with Russell Westbrook at the point.

It’s not that he’s not a good player. He is. He’s just not a point guard. People say that he has come a long way in his three seasons, but he sure didn’t show it in the last two series. Take a look at his numbers in the fourth quarter (and overtime) of all the games against Dallas and Memphis:

Westbrook was benched for one fourth quarter against the Mavs, so he played four 4th quarters and one overtime against Dallas. I threw out Game 5 against the Grizzlies because it wasn’t close in the 4th quarter, and I’m interested in how he plays with the game on the line. In total, he played six 4th quarters and four overtimes against Memphis. That adds up to 145 potential minutes and Westbrook played a majority of them. That many minutes converts to three full games (145/48 = 3.02), so I divided his totals by three to give us a rough idea of what his per game averages would have been if we only counted his 4th quarter and overtime numbers.

His totals (27.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.3 assists) are fairly impressive, but his shooting percentages (37% 2P, 22% 3P) are not. He did do a great job of getting to the line (12.3) and made them when he got there, at least against the Grizzlies. He turned the ball over at an extraordinary rate (7.3 per “game”). His assist-to-turnover ratio (0.59) was absolutely brutal. To put this in perspective, a ratio of 2.5 is average for a point guard, while the best ones are usually over 3.0.

He’s not a point guard. This much is clear. In his career, he has played 269 games at the position and proved against the Grizzlies and the Mavs that he’s not consistently able to be the floor general that a championship-caliber team needs.

So what does OKC do with him? The way I see it, they have two options:

1. Move him to off guard.
He’s a little undersized at 6’3″, but with his long arms and athletic ability, he could defend most opposing shooting guards. Also, for a “shooting” guard, he’s not a very good shooter (33% 3P on the season), but Dwyane Wade isn’t very accurate from distance and he makes it work.

In my mind, Westbrook’s best way forward is to follow in Wade’s shoes. Wade isn’t a point guard either, and he has figured out a way to play off guard even though he’s a little undersized.

The problem with moving Westbrook to the ‘two’ is that it’s going to impact James Harden, who is a prototypical off guard. Harden would either stay on the bench (he’s too good for that) or he would have to play small forward, where he would be undersized. That would push Durant to the ‘four’ and he’s not strong enough right now to play power forward on a consistent basis.

This leads me to option 2 for Westbrook…

2. Trade him.
If I were GM Sam Presti, I’d get the Hornets on the line and see if they’d be willing to give up Chris Paul for Westbrook. The Hornets may be feeling the pressure to do something with Paul since he’s entering the final year of his contract and may be on his way out of town. If they don’t trade him and he signs elsewhere, it would be disastrous. It’s very tough to get equal value for a superstar, but with all his flaws, Westbrook is an All-Star and All-NBA performer who could make a killing as an off guard on the right team. Perhaps New Orleans would go for a package that would include Westbrook, Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson’s expiring contract. (See it in the ESPN Trade Machine.)

If the Hornets decline to trade Paul, then I’d ring up the Nets and see if they would do the same deal for Deron Williams, who is in a similar position (contract-wise) as Paul. Both the Hornets and Nets have to feel the pressure with these two point guards, and if the Thunder played the two teams off of each other, I bet someone would bite.

Imagine a lineup of Paul (or Williams), Harden, Durant, Collison and Ibaka for the next five years! I have no inside info, but I suspect both Paul and Williams would love to join the Thunder simply because they’ll have a chance to contend for a title for the next several years. And don’t forget that Paul is familiar with OKC since the Hornets played there (and drew great crowds) while New Orleans was recovering from Hurricane Katrina.

Obviously, Westbrook would have to agree to an extension as part of the trade, as would Paul/Williams. Both sides will need to come away from the trade with the peace of mind that their new star is locked up for the long term.

Is a Westbrook trade going to happen? Probably not, but that’s the direction I would go if I were in charge. The current makeup of the roster cannot accommodate his move to off guard and there’s no one to take over the point even if he did. (Eric Maynor is a solid backup, but he’s just that…a backup.) A trade would bring in an impact point guard and free up all those minutes for Harden at the two.

When the Oklahoma City Thunder drafted James Harden #3 overall in the 2009 draft, it was a sign that the team had confidence in Russell Westbrook as their point guard of the future. After all, the 2009 draft was loaded with point guards (Ricky Rubio, Ty Lawson, Brandon Jennings, Stephen Curry, Jrue Holiday and Darren Collison, to name a few), but the Thunder elected to go with a shooting guard instead.

After the 2009-10 season, while Tyreke Evans was winning Rookie of the Year, and while Jennings, Curry, Collison and Taj Gibson were joining Evans on the All-Rookie First Team, Harden was something of a disappointment. He was an important player in the Thunder rotation, but he came off the bench and could only muster an All-Rookie Second Team nod. It was a solid if unspectacular rookie season.

Now, with the Thunder in the Western Conference Playoffs, Harden is playing 31+ minutes off the OKC bench and is often closing out games. He’s like Manu Ginobili — he’s not a starter, but he’s a closer, and that’s what matters.

It got me wondering — how does Harden’s playoff performance (12-5-4 on 46% shooting) stack up with other guards his age (21)?

Below you’ll find a table with the Per 36 Minute stats of the Top 30 guards in Efficiency Per Game (EPG is also normalized to 36 minutes).

Keep in mind that all of these players were 21 years old on February 1 of the season in question and the data only goes back to the 1982-83 season. I only included players that appeared in at least 50 games during the season to eliminate the riffraff.

I included both Harden’s regular season stats (#17) and his 2011 playoff stats (#6). As you can see, both sets of numbers should be encouraging for Harden supporters. His efficiency is up in the playoffs because he’s shooting at a higher percentage and is tallying more rebounds and assists.

If Playoffs James Harden is the real James Harden, then he has star written all over him. Even if his regular season numbers are more indicative of his ability, he’s still going to be a solid starter in the NBA for most of his career.

The two were hit with double-technical fouls in the first quarter after Bosh fouled Harden on a fast break. KD said something to Harden and Bosh jumped in. The two had words and it was over. Until Durant was asked about it in the locker room.

Durant said, “I was talking to my teammate and [Bosh] decided he wanted to put his two cents into it. I am quiet guy, laid back guy, but I’m not going to let nobody talk trash to me. He’s on a good team now so he thinks he can talk a little bit. There are a lot of fake tough guys in this league and he’s one of them.”

And more: “I’m no punk. I wasn’t even talking to him first off. He decided to butt in and I’m not going to just let that slide. Especially in our house. Like I said, he’s not one of those guys I look at and say he has a rap for talking back to guys or getting into it. He’s a nice guy. I’m not going to let that type of person say something to me like that.”

It’s not like Durant to get into a war of words with anyone. He’s one of the most affable players in the league. In fact, in another three or four years, if Durant doesn’t break through and win a championship, people are going to start to say that he’s “too nice,” a la David Robinson.

I don’t know why Bosh is picking fights with Durant and Harden. He clearly doesn’t have much of a rep around the league for being a tough guy, so maybe he should be quiet and let his game to the talking.

Every year, first-year players greatly impact the NBA regular season. They tend to thrive on bad teams for two reasons: 1) the best players generally go early in the draft to struggling franchises, and 2) those teams need their services so they play heavy minutes. In fact, over the last three years, the players that made the All-Rookie First Team played an average of 29.0 minutes per game. Playing time is opportunity, and with opportunity comes production.

Over that span, players that were named to the All-Rookie First Team played on teams with a combined 500-730 (.407) record. Only four players — Andrea Bargnani and Jorge Garbajosa on the 2006-07 Raptors, Luis Scola on the 2007-08 Rockets and Michael Beasley on the 2008-09 Heat — played on teams with a winning record. The other 11 players were on teams that averaged 25 wins.

Looking ahead to the 2009-10 NBA season, there are a number of rookies that will get big minutes on bad teams. I’m going to rank them in order of what I perceive to be their talent plus their opportunity, because a rookie needs both to succeed in his first year. Fantasy hoopsters should take note: Rookies can be great picks on draft day, if you know which ones to pick.

1. Blake Griffin, Clippers
In the preseason, Griffin is averaging 14.7 points and 8.5 rebounds in 28.5 minutes per game. The Clippers found a taker for Zach Randolph to clear the way for Griffin to start at power forward, and he should be a fixture there for the next few years. I expect he’ll get 33-35 minutes per game during the regular season, so 16-17 points and 9+ rebounds are a reasonable expectation. From a fantasy perspective, he’s currently PF19 off the board, but will likely finish as the PF11 or better if he stays healthy. 10/27 Update: He didn’t stay healthy. Griffin will miss six weeks with a stress fracture in his knee.

2. Tyreke Evans, Kings
Evans has started each of the Kings’ five preseason games and is averaging 15.2 points, 5.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists in 33.8 minutes per game. While he’s not a traditional point guard, the Kings want him to attack the rim and then make the right decision based on how the defense responds. His preseason numbers are a pretty good estimate for his production this season, so it looks like he is Griffin’s biggest competition for Rookie of the Year honors. Fantasy-wise, he is currently PG32 in live drafts, but if his preseason numbers translate (and he cuts back on the turnovers a bit), he’d finish in the top 20.

3. Brandon Jennings, Bucks
Jennings was the Naismith Prep Player of the Year in 2008 and spent last year playing professionally in Italy. He still has a lot to learn about shot selection, but his preseason assist/turnover ratio (2.20) isn’t far off Derrick Rose’s rookie year ratio (2.52). Jennings is averaging 11.6 points, 6.3 assists and 2.7 rebounds in 25.7 preseason minutes, so if he can get along with Scott Skiles and start this season, he’ll have a great shot at the All-Rookie Team. From a fantasy perspective, he should be able to produce like D.J. Augustin did last year.

4. James Harden, Thunder
In 27.6 preseason minutes, Harden is averaging 11.8 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game. These aren’t great numbers, but Harden is going to get plenty of minutes at off guard for the Thunder. Scouts considered him one of the most “NBA-ready” players in last year’s draft, so he should work out the kinks pretty quickly. For now, I’d stay away from Harden in fantasy drafts, but once he finds his shot and settles in, he should start posting some nice lines.

5. DeJuan Blair, Spurs
Blair is killing people in the preseason, averaging 14.7 points and 8.2 rebounds in 18.0 minutes per game. There’s room on the Spurs’ front line for that kind of production. He’s likely to play behind Antonio McDyess, and his knees are something of a concern, but when the guy is on the court, he’s a monster. He is currently PF31 in fantasy drafts, and while he’s not likely to keep up this production per minute, his playing time should increase. An efficient 12/8 is worth having on your roster, so take a flier on Blair in the late rounds.

Other players to watch: DeMarr DeRozan, Raptors; Jonny Flynn, Timberwolves; Stephen Curry, Warriors; Gerald Henderson, Bobcats; Taj Gibson, Bulls; Tyler Hansbrough, Pacers; Hasheem Thabeet, Grizzlies; Sam Young, Grizzlies

If three or more mocks made a pick, then it’s considered majority rules and that pick is listed in bold with the number of votes next to it in parenthesis. For those picks that have two or fewer mocks agreeing on a pick, I make the pick for them. For example, the five mocks have five different players going to the Knicks, so I made my best guess — Jrue Holiday. I went with Jennings over Flynn for the Bucks at #10 because Chad Ford reported that the Bucks are in love with Jennings’ upside. Et cetera.

A few random thoughts…

- Even though the #5 and #6 picks aren’t true consensus picks, three mocks had the T-Wolves using one of those back-to-back picks on Stephen Curry, while three mocks had the T-Wolves using the other pick on James Harden — who cares who is picked first? (Besides the players, of course. Their salary depends on it!)

- I’d be a little surprised if the Thunder drafted Rubio and kept him. Although I don’t think it would be a bad move, as Russell Westbrook is too much of a shoot-first point guard in my opinion, Westbrook’s camp has been pretty adamant that he doesn’t want to move off the ball. If OKC sees Westbrook as a point guard, then the best fit appears to be James Harden.

- Tyreke Evans’ stock has moved up on the heels of two good workouts for Minnesota and Sacramento. I’d be surprised if he’s still around at #7.

- Minnesota is poised to come out of the draft with two pretty good guard prospects. Curry and Harden would be a nice addition to a lineup that already includes emerging star Al Jefferson and efficient power forward Kevin Love. I don’t think they’ll keep the pick, but how about Austin Daye at #18? DX has him rated as the #2 small forward in this draft, and if he turns out to be a player, the T-Wolves would be in business.

- The chances are pretty good that a nice point guard prospect slips to the Sixers at #17 and maybe even to the Hawks at #19. It seems unlikely that the Nets (#11), Bobcats (#12), Pistons (#15), Bulls (#16) and T-Wolves (#18) would be in the market for a point guard with those picks, so whomever slips past the Bucks at #10 and the Pacers at #13 might very well be available at #17 or #19.

- I’m interested to see who the Hornets get at #21. They have Julian Wright who can play the 3, but who are they developing at off guard? This draft is thin on talent at the 2, but Marcus Thornton and Wayne Ellington are both interesting prospects. New Orleans needs a guy who can knock down shots.

- Tyler Hansbrough was invited to the festivities in New York, so he may not be around until #16 unless the NBA wanted him there as the face of the senior class of college basketball. He could go #11 to New Jersey or #12 to the Bobcats, but both teams seem to have a stronger interest in a wing player.

- If Blair or Hansbrough are there at #20, I wouldn’t expect the Jazz to pass, but stranger things have happened. They’re probably going to lose Carlos Boozer this summer, so their biggest need is up front and both guys definitely fit the bill.

- The chances of finding a good center outside of the lottery are slim, so if Mullens does indeed go with the #15 pick or later, it’s going to be especially interesting to watch him develop.

- James Johnson has seen his stock fluctuate wildly over the course of the past few weeks. He went from being a late lottery pick to a late-round guy, and now his name is being mentioned in the top 10 again.

- As a Bucks fan, I’m not too keen on the idea of the team drafting a point guard when they already have Ramon Sessions on the roster. I think he’s better right now than any of the prospects in the draft, and he’s only 23. That said, I understand why they’d want to go PG in this draft since that’s where the talent is. I hope Jordan Hill falls to them, but I’d be reasonably happy with Flynn or Jennings. Between those two, I think Flynn is more likely to become a “Milwaukee guy,” but Jennings seems to have loads of upside. How would he and Scott Skiles mesh? Now that Richard Jefferson is gone, DeRozan is a possibility (though it’s a little worrisome that John Hollinger’s Draft Rater is so down on him.)