We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first” and another “shoot-first.” Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone” while another “takes care of the ball.” But really, what makes a player a “pass-first” point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone”?

I first tackled this subject two years ago, and settled on the shot-to-assist ratio to determine whether a player is “pass-first” or “shoot-first.” The higher the number, the more of a “shoot-first” player he is. To determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the number, the better the player is at taking care of the ball.

I narrowed the list of players to 33, one for each team plus a few extra for teams like Cleveland, Sacramento and Denver, who have a couple of players manning the position. I also added eight prospects (indicated in green) just to see where a few of the younger guys land. Here’s the graph — it’s small, but if you click it, you’ll get to a bigger version:

So the pass-first/shoot-first aspect goes left to right, and the turnover-prone players will be towards the bottom, while the guys that take really good care of the ball will be up top. Players indicated with a blue diamond are in the Top 10 in this group in Efficiency Per Minute. I set the axis for each category at the average of the 33 players in question, so 1.97 for FGA-to-assist and 2.70 assist-to-turnover.

Two years ago when I conducted this study, seven of the top 10 EPM performers were in the top left quadrant (pass-first, takes care of the ball). This year, only five of the top 11 (I included both Rondo and Calderon, since they tied for #11) are in that quadrant. This is due to the emergence of three shoot-first, (fairly) turnover-prone guards who are emerging as stars: Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry.

A few takeaways:

Ty Lawson looks like a star. He is #13 in this group in EPM, so if he can continue to post big numbers in bigger minutes he’s poised to join the Top 10 sometime soon.

Kyle Lowry isn’t too far behind him. It’s not clear if Houston has decided that Lowry is their point guard of the future, but he is #16 in EPM and is well above average in assist-to-turnover ratio.

Brandon Jennings can still become a Top 10 point guard. Two years ago, I would have said that Jennings would have to drastically change his game to join the elite group of point guards, but with the way Rose, Westbrook and Curry have emerged, he can continue to be himself. One thing I’ve noticed with his game is that he has a tough time finishing around the hoop when he gets bumped, which is something that Westbrook and Rose excel at. Jennings needs to master the floater — that way, he can use his quickness to get into the lane pretty much any time he wants, and then get his shot off without taking a big hit.

Roddy Beaubois is an interesting prospect, but it’s doubtful he’s going to be a quality starter in this league… unless he changes his game to become more of a distributor. He doesn’t need to turn into Jason Kidd, but right now he’s an outlier so he needs to take better care of the ball and create a few more opportunities for teammates. You may notice that Tyreke Evans is very close to Beaubois, but he really needs to play shooting guard.

If John Wall can take care of the ball, he’ll be right there with Deron Williams. For a rookie, Wall’s numbers look great. Sure, he’s a little turnover prone, but no worse that Westbrook, Billups, Collison or Curry. He’s a playmaker, so once he cuts back on the turnovers, his assist-to-turnover ratio really has a chance to skyrocket. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s up in the area of Maynor and Lowry with a blue diamond next to his name in a couple of seasons.

A series of injuries to the Celtics’ bigs along with some timely buckets from Rashard Lewis (9 points in the fourth quarter) and Jameer Nelson (24-5-5) led to a decisive 113-92 win for the Magic in Game 5.

Dwight Howard posted 21-10 while J.J. Redick continued his fine play off the bench, scoring 14 points and hitting 2-of-3 threes.

Now the pressure shifts back to the Celtics, who need to close out the Magic in Game 6 or else they’ll have to try to avoid being the first team to lose a series after leading 3-0 by winning Game 7 on the Magic’s home floor.

Jeff Van Gundy didn’t think that the C’s would feel pressured since they have so much experience, but he shouldn’t underestimate the “making bad history” aspect of this scenario. No team wants to be the first in league history to suffer a collapse of this magnitude, and given the collapse of the Boston Bruins, it will definitely be on the C’s collective psyche.

Complicating matters, the Celtics will be a little unsure of the availability of certain players for Game 6. Kendrick Perkins faces suspension unless one of his technicals is rescinded (which is likely to happen) and Glen Davis may not be able to play due to a concussion he suffered in Game 5. Rasheed Wallace also left Game 5 with back spasms, so the C’s could be very thin on the front line.

If they expect to close out the series, the Celtics need better play from Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, who combined to shoot 8-for-25 from the field for just 19 points in Game 5.

Celtics 95, Magic 92

Well, we can pretty much stick a fork in the Magic. When a team loses the first two games of the series at home, they aren’t coming back. They’re just not. It doesn’t happen. Well, maybe it’s happened once or twice, I don’t know. (Update: Teams that win the first two games on the road have won the series 22 of 25 times, per John Hollinger.) It would take a miracle…or maybe an injury.

So barring that, the Magic have to be left wondering what happened. They cruised through the first two rounds of the playoffs, winning eight straight games, and ran into a brick wall in the form of the Boston Celtics. The difference in this series is that the C’s are simply a lot better than the Bobcats and Hawks. In fact, I think you could combine the rosters for the Bobcats and Hawks and Boston would still beat them in a seven-game series. That’s how good the Celtics are playing now.

Ray Allen lit it up in Game 1, but was quiet in Game 2. Paul Pierce picked up the slack, posting 28-5-5. Kevin Garnett (10-9) struggled shooting the ball once again, but there was Rajon Rondo with a timely 25-5-8. Quick — name five point guards that are better than Rondo right now. I bet you can’t.

Dwight Howard (30-8) played a lot better in Game 2, and even hit his free throws (12-of-17), but the rest of the Magic shot just 19-of-58 (33%) from the field for 62 points. Jameer Nelson (4-of-12), Vince Carter (5-of-15) and Rashard Lewis (2-of-6), who combined to make $42 million this season, shot a collective 11-of-33 from the field. At home.

I’ll wait until the Magic actually lose the series before I write their offseason piece, but at this point the entire region of Central Florida has to be regretting that Vince Carter move. In the final period, Carter went 2-of-5, turned the ball over once, and missed back-to-back free throws with 0:32 to play that would have cut Boston’s lead to one. Luckily for Otis Smith, Hedo Turkoglu’s play fell off a cliff in Toronto, so it’s not like Smith’s detractors can point to Turk as a no-brainer re-signing.

As for Boston, what has spearheaded this rejuvenation? To me, it’s a combination of several factors: 1) Rondo is now a Top 5 point guard, so it’s the Big 4 instead of the Big 3, and at least two are showing up every night, 2) Garnett’s knee looks a lot better, 3) they’re playing arguably the best defense in the league, and 4) someone on the bench — Tony Allen, Rasheed Wallace or Glen Davis — seems to show up every game with an unexpected 8-15 points.

The Celtics are also made up of consummate professionals, so even though they have their ring, they’re going out every night and laying it on the line.

With the way both teams are playing, there’s a good chance we’re going to see a matchup of the last two Finals winners (Lakers, Celtics) and a rematch of the 2008 Finals.


Photo from fOTOGLIF

Nelson participated in a full team practice Tuesday for the first time since tearing the labrum in his right shoulder Feb. 2. While Nelson and coach Stan Van Gundy still said the point guard’s status won’t be determined until game day, players said Nelson looked “terrific” and expect him to be on the court against the Los Angeles Lakers.

“It’s still no in my mind,” Smith said. “There’s a very smidgen of a chance he can play.”

That “smidgen” seems to be growing.

Nelson has been playing full-court games and practicing in non-contact drills for the last two weeks. Tuesday, he participated in every drill.

Players said Nelson wasn’t in his All-Star form, but even not completely healthy, he was better than most NBA point guards.

If Nelson can come back at 85-90%, it would be a big boost for the Magic. Rafer Alston has been great at times, but he had some brutal games shooting the ball against the Cavs. He went 1 for 7 in Game 2 and 1 for 10 in Game 5, which were both losses for the Magic. In Orlando’s four wins, he averaged 17.0 points and shot 25 of 56 (45%) from the field.

One thing that has been especially amazing about Orlando’s postseason run is that they’ve done it all without their All-Star guard, Jameer Nelson. According to a report from the Orlando Sentinel, the Magic are considering the possibility of activating Nelson for the Finals.

General Manager Otis Smith told the Sentinel on Sunday that Nelson would only play if he passes “a litany of tests” and the club is comfortable with a decision that won’t risk his future.

Nelson has not played since tearing the labrum in his right shoulder on Feb. 3 against the Dallas Mavericks. He underwent what was believed to be season-ending surgery on Feb. 19, but his rehabilitation is dramatically ahead of schedule, as much as two months.

Smith said Nelson had an MRI as recently as last week and has participated in contact drills.

“It’s up in the air. We’ll see how Jameer looks the next few days,” Smith said. “There’s a few more things we have to get comfortable with. We’re looking at the pros and cons. Doctors will have to talk to doctors. If we’re at a place where Jameer can help us accomplish our goals, then maybe he can play and give us some more punch.

“There’s a litany of tests he’ll have to pass. His health is the main thing. We’re not going to mortgage his future.”

The Magic went 2-0 versus the Lakers this season and in those two games, Nelson averaged 27.5 points (on 59% shooting), 6.5 assists and 5.0 rebounds, so getting him back would be a big boost for the franchise. I wouldn’t expect him to be very sharp after sitting out so long, but he could give the Magic some key minutes in certain situations. Besides, if he can shoot the ball, he can help.

We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first” and another “shoot-first.” Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone” while another “takes care of the ball.” But really, what makes a player a “pass-first” point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone”?

Taking an analytical approach to these questions, I decided to bust out an Excel spreadsheet and try to come up with some answers. Below you’ll see a graph that attempts to classify the top point guards in the league. But first, a little background…

I chose to categorize each player based on two stats. First, to determine if he’s “shoot-first” or “pass-first,” I calculated the shot-to-assist ratio for each player. The bigger the number, the more of a “shoot-first” mentality the player has. Second, to determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. I thought about using turnovers per 48 minutes, but I like the idea of including assists so that playmakers are rewarded for the positive as well as the negative. Next, I calculated each player’s Efficiency Per Minute (EPM) to see if there is any correlation between these other statistics and the overall efficiency of the player in question.

The last step was to plot each player based on the two ratios. The graph is a little small, but if you click it, it will take you to a larger version.

Each player is indicated by a separate plot point with his name next to it. (Duh.) The blue diamonds represent the top 10 point guards in terms of EPM. One point guard was chosen per team. Usually, I went with the player that got the most starts at the position.

The further the player is to the right on the (horizontal) x-axis the higher his shot-to-assist ratio and the more of a “shoot-first” mentality he has. Conversely, the further the player is to the left, the more of a “pass-first” point guard he is.

On the (vertical) y-axis, the further the player is towards the top, the better job he does of taking care of the ball (in comparison to the number of assists he posts). Players towards the bottom of the axis have poor assist-to-turnover ratios.

Each axis is set at the average of the 30 players included in the study. The shot-to-assist ratio average is 2.12, while the average assist-to-turnover ratio is 2.66.

A few interesting things to note…

As a whole, the data set takes on a downward slope. Intuitively, this makes sense. “Shoot-first” point guards are generally that way because that is their strength – scoring the ball. They are generally not as adept at being in the playmaker role, so they won’t have a good assist-to-turnover ratio. Conversely, players that are “pass-first” are that way because playmaking is their specialty. They handle the ball well and have good vision.

The sweet spot is in the second (top-left) quadrant. Seven of the top EPM performers at the position – Jose Calderon, Jason Kidd, Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, Deron Williams, Steve Nash and Chauncey Billups – all have a better-than-average assist-to-turnover ratio and a “pass-first” menality. The other three top 10 EPM performers – Jameer Nelson, Tony Parker and Devin Harris – are reasonably close to that top-left quadrant. The 10 point guards in the top-left quadrant play for teams that had a combined record of 471-349 (.574) in the regular season and seven of those teams made the playoffs. These facts are telling.

Jameer Nelson and Tony Parker aren’t in the ideal quadrant, but they are a good fit for their teams. Think about it – Nelson and Parker play with two of the best big men in the game in Dwight Howard and Tim Duncan. Point guards that play with a great big man will find that assists are a little tougher to come by. Typically, when someone feeds Howard or Duncan, they take their time in the post before they make their move, so the player that passed them the ball doesn’t necessarily get the assist. Plus, anyone can feed the post – it doesn’t have to be the point guard. Think about those seven players in the top-left quadrant for a moment. For the most part, they play with jump shooters (and are therefore more likely to rack up assists).

The Magic are built in the Hakeem Olajuwon-era Rockets mold. They have a dominant big man and the idea is to surround him with great jumpshooters to keep defenses honest. Conversely, Parker oftentimes takes advantage of the amount of attention that defenses pay to Duncan to get to the rim. When he attacks the hole, he’s trying to score and will only pass if the defense forces him to.

Finally, it’s no coincidence that Nelson and Parker are two of the most efficient scorers in this study. In terms of FG%, Parker is first and Nelson is tied for third. Both players shoot better than 50% from the field, so it makes sense that they’d have a “shoot-first” mentality.

Ramon Sessions is a keeper. Luke Ridnour got more starts than Sessions, but I like Sessions more and the Bucks have to decide whether or not to sign the up-and-coming point guard to an extension this summer. Here’s my pitch: He has the #11 EPM (just behind Chauncey Billups) and is on the verge of becoming a very good point guard. His Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 17.65 is #13 amongst qualified PGs. Throw in the fact that the NBA is becoming increasingly dependent on good point guard play, and the 23-year-old looks like a great (and relatively cheap) prospect. GM John Hammond has to find a way to keep this kid.

Baron Davis isn’t a “shoot-first” point guard?!? Apparently not. His career shot-to-assist ratio is 2.05, so even when we consider his entire body of work, he’s still leans “pass-first.” This is underlined by his 2008-09 campaign, where he was even more “pass-first.”

Derrick Rose turns the ball over too much. I hadn’t yet looked at his numbers, but I could tell this about Rose just watching the Bulls/Celtics series. Every so often he throws a pass that might have made it in college, but isn’t going to make it in the NBA. Most rookie point guards struggle with this, so I’d assume that Rose will start to work his way into that top-left quadrant (or at least the top-right quadrant) in the next year or two. In fact, his assist-to-turnover ratio rose from 2.52 before the All-Star break to 2.56 after. I think he’ll eventually settle in somewhere near Nelson and Parker. He seems like more of a scorer than a pure playmaker, partly do to his incredible ability to finish at the rim.

Where would a healthy Gilbert Arenas fit in? Remember him? Agent Zero has only played 15 games in the last two years, so it’s not really fair to judge him based on those numbers. To get an idea of where he’d land, I calculated his ratios for the 2006-07 season. You’ll find him bunched with Jamal Crawford, Mo Williams, Randy Foye and Aaron Brooks in the bottom-right quadrant, which makes sense because those are all “shoot-first” point guards.

Is Mo Williams’ position on the chart due to his playing with LeBron? After plotting Arenas, it made me wonder about Mo. He was one of the top assist men in the league in his last year in Milwaukee. How does the 2007-08 Mo Williams compare with the 2008-09 version? It turns out that the ’07 version of Mo Williams is a lot like the ’08 Devin Harris, which makes sense considering that both players are very capable scorers and playmakers, but at heart are “shoot-first.”

CONCLUSION

I think the big thing to take away from this is that it’s generally better to have a “pass-first” point guard who takes care of the ball. However, if you have a dominant big man (or a superstar wing like LeBron or Kobe), a “shoot-first” point guard can be just as effective, especially if he can shoot it like Nelson or Williams, or get to the rim like Parker does.

Is there anything that I missed?

How did Orlando lose this game? Dwight Howard had 31 points and 16 rebounds, but Turkoglu and Rafer Alston combined to shoot just 7 for 23 from the field. Three-point shooting was the difference — Orlando shot 5 of 18 (28%) from long range while the Sixers knocked down 7 of 12 (58%) attempts. Iguodala had a great game, posting 20 points, eight rebounds and eight assists. Lou Williams pitched in with 18 points.

The Magic miss Jameer Nelson. Rafer Alston is a serviceable replacement, but he’s no Jameer. Rashard Lewis needs to play better as well. Fifteen points, three rebounds and three assists is a decent line, but not for a guy making more than $17 million per season.