GM Otis Smith and Jameer Nelson have tempered their optimism publicly, but the Orlando Magic players seem to think that Nelson will play in the Finals.

Nelson participated in a full team practice Tuesday for the first time since tearing the labrum in his right shoulder Feb. 2. While Nelson and coach Stan Van Gundy still said the point guard’s status won’t be determined until game day, players said Nelson looked “terrific” and expect him to be on the court against the Los Angeles Lakers.

“It’s still no in my mind,” Smith said. “There’s a very smidgen of a chance he can play.”

That “smidgen” seems to be growing.

Nelson has been playing full-court games and practicing in non-contact drills for the last two weeks. Tuesday, he participated in every drill.

Players said Nelson wasn’t in his All-Star form, but even not completely healthy, he was better than most NBA point guards.

If Nelson can come back at 85-90%, it would be a big boost for the Magic. Rafer Alston has been great at times, but he had some brutal games shooting the ball against the Cavs. He went 1 for 7 in Game 2 and 1 for 10 in Game 5, which were both losses for the Magic. In Orlando’s four wins, he averaged 17.0 points and shot 25 of 56 (45%) from the field.

One thing that has been especially amazing about Orlando’s postseason run is that they’ve done it all without their All-Star guard, Jameer Nelson. According to a report from the Orlando Sentinel, the Magic are considering the possibility of activating Nelson for the Finals.

General Manager Otis Smith told the Sentinel on Sunday that Nelson would only play if he passes “a litany of tests” and the club is comfortable with a decision that won’t risk his future.

Nelson has not played since tearing the labrum in his right shoulder on Feb. 3 against the Dallas Mavericks. He underwent what was believed to be season-ending surgery on Feb. 19, but his rehabilitation is dramatically ahead of schedule, as much as two months.

Smith said Nelson had an MRI as recently as last week and has participated in contact drills.

“It’s up in the air. We’ll see how Jameer looks the next few days,” Smith said. “There’s a few more things we have to get comfortable with. We’re looking at the pros and cons. Doctors will have to talk to doctors. If we’re at a place where Jameer can help us accomplish our goals, then maybe he can play and give us some more punch.

“There’s a litany of tests he’ll have to pass. His health is the main thing. We’re not going to mortgage his future.”

The Magic went 2-0 versus the Lakers this season and in those two games, Nelson averaged 27.5 points (on 59% shooting), 6.5 assists and 5.0 rebounds, so getting him back would be a big boost for the franchise. I wouldn’t expect him to be very sharp after sitting out so long, but he could give the Magic some key minutes in certain situations. Besides, if he can shoot the ball, he can help.

We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first” and another “shoot-first.” Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone” while another “takes care of the ball.” But really, what makes a player a “pass-first” point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone”?

Taking an analytical approach to these questions, I decided to bust out an Excel spreadsheet and try to come up with some answers. Below you’ll see a graph that attempts to classify the top point guards in the league. But first, a little background…

I chose to categorize each player based on two stats. First, to determine if he’s “shoot-first” or “pass-first,” I calculated the shot-to-assist ratio for each player. The bigger the number, the more of a “shoot-first” mentality the player has. Second, to determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. I thought about using turnovers per 48 minutes, but I like the idea of including assists so that playmakers are rewarded for the positive as well as the negative. Next, I calculated each player’s Efficiency Per Minute (EPM) to see if there is any correlation between these other statistics and the overall efficiency of the player in question.

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The Philadelphia 76ers were down by 14 points heading into the fourth quarter, and they managed to outscore Orlando 35-19 in the final period to spring the upset. Andre Iguodala is a difficult matchup for Hedo Turkoglu, but with time running down in regulation, the Turkish forward forced the “new AI” into a tough shot, but Iguodala nailed it to give the Sixers the lead for good, 100-98. On the previous possession, Donyell Marshall hit a HUGE three-pointer (with 0:34 to play) to tie the game at 98-98. (Truth be told, I didn’t even realize that Marshall was still in the league.)

How did Orlando lose this game? Dwight Howard had 31 points and 16 rebounds, but Turkoglu and Rafer Alston combined to shoot just 7 for 23 from the field. Three-point shooting was the difference — Orlando shot 5 of 18 (28%) from long range while the Sixers knocked down 7 of 12 (58%) attempts. Iguodala had a great game, posting 20 points, eight rebounds and eight assists. Lou Williams pitched in with 18 points.

The Magic miss Jameer Nelson. Rafer Alston is a serviceable replacement, but he’s no Jameer. Rashard Lewis needs to play better as well. Fifteen points, three rebounds and three assists is a decent line, but not for a guy making more than $17 million per season.

The All-Star reserves were announced last night and Mo Williams’ name was not on the list. And he’s none too happy about it.

The Magic will get three All-Stars—Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis now as well as starting center Dwight Howard—but the Cavs, despite having the best record in the NBA, will only send LeBron James.

Really, it came down to Nelson or Williams, and Mo first and foremost didn’t want to take anything away from his colleague.

“Congratulations to him,” Williams said with a smile. “He deserves it, but there’s only a certain amount of players that can play.”

“You want me to tell you like it is?” Williams chuckled. “Then I’ll tell it like it is. It’s a tragedy. How many players get into the game, and how many players did the Magic get in? They’ve got three players, and we’ve got the best record. Not just in the Eastern Conference, but in the whole league… Best team in the world, and we got one player.”

The guy’s got a point, and [Ben] Wallace’s got his back.

“He took us from a team that was on the verge of competing for a championship to making us a legit championship contender,” Wallace added.

I disagree with Wallace that Williams is the main reason that the Cavs are playing as well as they are (or were, before getting trounced by the Magic last night). LeBron has returned from his stint with Team USA with a focus on defense, and that has translated to the rest of the team. He even has Williams gaining a rep for being a decent defender, which is something that has plagued him throughout his career.

Here are the YTD stats for Williams and Nelson:

Williams: 16.92 PER (#16 PG), 17.0 p, 4.1 a, 3.3 r, 0.8 s, 47% FG, 38% 3PT, 94% FT

Nelson: 20.94 PER (#4 PG), 16.9 p, 5.3 a, 3.4 r, 1.2 s, 51% FG, 45% 3PT, 88% FT

The two players are essentially the same in points and rebounds. Mo has an advantage in free throw percentage, but Jameer has a big advantage in assists, steals, FG% and three-point accuracy. Moreover, Williams plays an extra two minutes per game, so he has more time to post stats. Clearly, from the Player Efficiency Rating, Nelson is the far more productive and efficient player.

Williams has also come up fairly small in the Cavs’ three “marquee” games this season. He shot 6-16 in a bad loss against the Lakers on Jan. 19 and posted just 13 points and one assist against the Celtics on Jan. 9. That trend continued after the reserves were announced when he shot just 4-15 from the field against the Magic last night.

So this comes down to how many players elite teams should get on the All-Star team. I actually think that Mo is more deserving than Rashard Lewis, but that Nelson is more deserving than Williams. But this probably has to do more with LeBron than anything. He is viewed as a one-man wrecking crew and that will automatically discount the contributions of his teammates. Throw in the fact that Allen Iverson was voted in by the fans and it was obvious that someone was going to get screwed. It happens every year.

Williams has a gripe, but Jameer Nelson deserves to be an All-Star, there’s no doubt about that.

…and here they are…

East: Devin Harris, Danny Granger, Jameer Nelson, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Rashard Lewis and Paul Pierce

West: Shaquille O’Neal, Chauncey Billups, Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Tony Parker, Brandon Roy and David West

When comparing the final rosters to my picks, there were three changes. I didn’t have Allen Iverson on my roster, much less a starter, but he was voted in by the fans. Rashard Lewis replaced Vince Carter, which goes to show that the coaches value team wins more than individual (albeit gaudy) stats. David West replaced Carmelo Anthony, and I think it’s a good call, especially with ‘Melo’s injury. The longer he was out, the better the chances that the coaches would leave him at home. It didn’t help his All-Star stock that Denver has played very well without him.

The only thing that’s really wrong with these rosters is the inclusion of Allen Iverson. There were a host of players in the East — Carter, Tayshaun Prince, Ray Allen, Mo Williams, Rajon Rondo, Caron Butler and Josh Smith — that were more deserving, but there’s no doubt that AI is a very popular player. Unsurprisingly, we can’t really argue with the coaches’ picks. They know what they’re doing.

It’s especially good to see Devin Harris, Danny Granger, Jameer Nelson and Tony Parker get recognized for their fine play this season.

I made my picks more than two weeks ago. Then the All-Star starters (as voted in by the fans) were announced.

Now that we know who the starters will be, I’m wondering if there’s any reason to change any of my other picks. Let’s take a look…

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Starters: Allen Iverson, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard

My original picks: Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce, Chris Bosh, Devin Harris, Danny Granger, Tayshaun Prince, Jameer Nelson and Vince Carter

I didn’t have Iverson on the team, much less starting, so one of my other eight picks has to go. Unfortunately, I think it’s going to be Prince because the Pistons aren’t good enough to warrant two All-Star nods. The same could be said about the Nets, but Vince Carter’s stats are pretty big. I think I’ll go with this group, though there are a number of players that could take Carter’s spot. If any of these other guys — Johnson, Pierce, Bosh, Harris, Granger and Nelson — don’t make it, it’s going to be a pretty big snub.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Starters: Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Amare Stoudemire, Tim Duncan and Yao Ming

My original picks: Dirk Nowitzki, Brandon Roy, Carmelo Anthony, Tony Parker, Pau Gasol, Chauncey Billups and Shaquille O’Neal

I had Nowitzki starting over Stoudemire, but no worries there. Would I swap out any of the players? Well, ‘Melo is still sidelined and the Nuggets don’t seem to be hurting too much without him. That weakens Anthony’s position and strengthens Billups’ argument. I could see David West, LaMarcus Aldridge, Al Jefferson or Deron Williams replacing Anthony, but I doubt it will happen. I think the other picks are safe, though Williams could replace Parker or Billups, though I don’t think either guy deserves to miss the All-Star Game.

The reserves will be announced this Thursday on TNT.

The starters for the NBA All-Star Game have been announced, and Allen Iverson is amongst the starters in the East. In my picks, I didn’t even have him on the roster, much less in the starting lineup. The Pistons are a mediocre team and AI is having one of the worst seasons of his career. Maybe that’s not his fault, but it doesn’t mean that he should get a golden ticket into the All-Star Game every season. More importantly, there are at least five guards — Joe Johnson, Devin Harris, Jameer Nelson, Ray Allen and Vince Carter — that are more deserving. With AI’s inclusion, there won’t be room for at least two of them in Phoenix.

Here’s a look at their stats…

AI: 16.15 PER, 17.9 ppg, 5.4 apg, 3.3 rpg, 1.6 spg, 42% FG, 28% 3PT
JJ: 18.85 PER, 22.0 ppg, 6.0 apg, 4.5 rpg, 1.0 spg, 43% FG, 35% 3PT
DH: 23.16 PER, 21.8 ppg, 6.4 apg, 3.0 rpg, 1.6 spg, 45% FG, 32% 3PT
JN: 20.87 PER, 17.1 ppg, 5.3 apg, 3.4 rpg, 1.2 spg, 51% FG, 44% 3PT
RA: 17.96 PER, 18.0 ppg, 2.7 apg, 4.5 rpg, 0.9 spg, 50% FG, 41% 3PT
VC: 20.6 PER, 21.5 ppg, 4.7 apg, 5.0 rpg, 1.0 spg, 44% FG, 40% 3PT

And here’s an argument for each guy…

Joe Johnson: The Hawks are a game ahead of the Pistons and JJ’s stats are better in every category except for steals. I think Johnson deserves to start.

Devin Harris: The Nets are only 5 1/2 games behind the Pistons — let’s face it, both teams are mediocre — and Harris’ numbers are vastly better than Iverson’s.

Jameer Nelson: He’s having the second-best season of anyone on the Magic, and they are 8 1/2 games ahead of the Pistons. Iverson’s scoring is a bit better, but Nelson is a far better shooter and is as good or better than AI in every other category.

Ray Allen: They have the best record in the East, 10 games better than the Pistons. Allen is a far better shooter, and while his assist and steal numbers are lower than AI’s, he’s a better rebounder.

Vince Carter: See Devin Harris. Seriously, I prefer all these other guys to Carter, but I prefer Carter to Iverson. His numbers are better pretty much across the board and the Pistons and Nets aren’t too far apart in the standings. Carter and Harris are carrying the Nets while AI has more help — Rasheed Wallace, Rip Hamilton, Rodney Stuckey and Tayshaun Prince (who is more deserving of an All-Star nod due to his terrific defense and good stats).

Since AI is in, that means we have to cross two players off that list of five (as there is likely to be just three additional guards on the roster). I would go with Johnson, Harris and Nelson. The Magic deserve two All-Star nods and Nelson’s numbers are a bit better than Ray Ray’s. As for Carter, the Nets probably don’t deserve two spots.

The Magic lost last night, 90-80, at home to the Celtics, who were in the second night of a back-to-back. Doug Collins mentioned that the Magic may have been “rusty” because their last game was on Saturday.

Far be it for me to disagree with Doug Collins, but I’m going to disagree with Doug Collins. While the Magic may have been out of the normal rhythm of the NBA season, they did get four days of rest and recovery, which is never a bad thing. The Celtics had played the night before, and historically speaking, that’s more difficult to do than play after a long break. (At least Vegas thinks so.)

The Magic lost last night because the Celtics are just a better defensive team right now. They made things difficult on Orlando’s three-point shooters (32%) and held the Magic to 38% from the field on the night. For the most part, they were successful in keeping Dwight Howard off the block when he caught the ball, which allowed Kendrick Perkins and Glen Davis to play him one-on-one instead of forcing the Celtics to double-team. Howard was limited to 11 points, and since there were few double-teams, the Magic were forced to take a number of contested three-pointers, resulting in the lower accuracy from behind the arc. Orlando was also incapable of finishing at the rim much of the night, which only compounded the problem.

In the fourth quarter, Jameer Nelson got hot and Orlando tried to make a run, but Davis and Kevin Garnett hit jumper after jumper to keep the Magic at bay. The Celtics look like they’re rolling again, but I wouldn’t say that the Magic are out of their league. This was just one game.

Two of the four best teams in the league square off tonight in Orlando. The Celtics come to town riding a six-game winning streak (which followed a four-game losing streak), while the Magic have won seven straight, and 16 of their last 18, which included wins over the Lakers (x 2), the Spurs (x 2) and the Hornets.

Much has been written about the Celtics, so let’s focus on the Magic. Orlando might be playing the best ball of anyone right now, and they’re really starting to remind me of the 1995 Houston Rockets squad that swept Shaquille O’Neal, Penny Hardaway and the rest of the Magic in the Finals to win their second straight title. They have a true center that commands a double-team (Hakeem Olajuwon = Dwight Howard), a slasher on the wing that can also shoot the ball (Clyde Drexler = Hedo Turkoglu), a sharpshooting power forward (Robert Horry = Rashard Lewis), an assassin of a point guard (Kenny Smith = Jameer Nelson) and his young protege (Sam Cassell = Courtney Lee). The Magic aren’t as deep as those Rockets were — remember Otis Thorpe, Vernon Maxwell and Mario Elie? — and while that may be their undoing come playoff time, it’s hard to imagine Boston or Cleveland’s bench dominating anyone.

The Magic are 5th in the league in offensive efficiency and 3rd in defensive efficiency, which is directly related to their ability to hold the opposition to 42.6% from the field. Stan Van Gundy has done a terrific job teaching the core — Howard, Nelson, Turkoglu and Lewis — how to play defense and there isn’t a coach in the league that is doing more with less, at least at the elite-team level. At this point, he’s my choice for Coach of the Year.

Tonight’s game will be a nice test for the young Magic, and their crowd. With the defending champs coming to town, there should be a playoff atmosphere at Amway Arena, with the fans rising to their feet early and often. If the crowd sits on its hands for much of the first half, the team might be in trouble come playoff time. A real home court advantage is crucial to winning in the playoffs — just ask the Celtics.

The game is scheduled for 8 PM ET on TNT.