Marc Stein’s sources say that he is.

NBA front-office sources say that the Warriors and Hawks will soon complete a deal sending Crawford to Atlanta for Acie Law and Speedy Claxton.

Warriors coach Don Nelson made no secret of the fact that Crawford wasn’t in his future plans. By shedding Crawford’s longer contract and by virtue of insurance payments that will cover some of the costs of Claxton, Golden State would secure a decent measure of payroll relief with the trade.

Crawford is definitely a shoot-first point guard, as evidenced by this study I did a few weeks ago, though I think he’s better suited to playing off the ball. His shot selection is suspect (career 40.4% from the field), but he is a prolific scorer. In fact, he has averaged at least 17 points in each of the last four seasons, but he regularly takes 15-17 shots per game. Is it possible to get him to rein in his attempts and be a little more selective in his attempts? I’d rather he average 14-15 points on 10-11 shots.

How does this affect Mike Bibby’s contract negotiations? Acie Law wasn’t working out, but now that Crawford is on the roster, the Hawks have a backup plan in case Bibby’s expectations are too high. Bibby takes better care of the ball, but he’s a shoot-first point guard as well, so a reined-in Crawford wouldn’t be that much different.

Crawford’s contract runs another two years at the tune of $19 million, so while the fiscal impact for the Hawks in the short term is minor, they are giving up about $10 million in projected cap space in 2010 by making this trade.

After the season, Jamal Crawford can opt out of the final two years of his contract. Those two years would pay him $19.5 million, so given the current state of the economy and the coming “nuclear winter” for NBA free agents, it’s highly unlikely that he’d be able to find that kind of money in the open market. But Tim Kawakami says that Golden State head coach Don Nelson is pushing the guard to opt out.

I’ve heard that when Nelson explained Crawford’s recent one-game benching, he spoke about getting the younger players more time, etc, etc.

But Nelson also told Crawford that he was doing the complete benching in order to help Crawford’s per-game averages, all the better for when (or if) Crawford opts-out, which Nelson very much wants him to do this summer.

That is a loud and clear NBA message, by the way. By even mentioning the opt-out (Crawford can erase the final two years and $19M+ on his deal), Nelson was indicating to Crawford that Nelson wanted him to opt-out.

Even more, Nelson was suggesting that Crawford HAD BETTER OPT-OUT or else Nelson would probably make sure that the situation next year isn’t to Crawford’s liking.

My understanding is that Crawford’s reaction was the same as any proud player’s reaction: Why in the world should I be pushed into a decision like that?

Nelson is trying to shove Crawford into opting out, and therefore messing up Crawford’s marketability, which, in the end, probably will drive Crawford NOT to opt out this summer.

I repeat: What in the world is Nelson doing? If you guess that he’s trying to make things as messy as possible, either to shake up the Warriors or to make his firing (with TWO YEARS and $12M left on the deal after this season) as inevitable and quick as possible…

Exactly. Given Nelson’s actions, it only makes it more likely that Crawford would stand his ground and choose to play out the final two years of his contract. The only way I can see an opt out in this scenario is if the situation in Golden State is so bad that Crawford decides it’s not worth the money to stay. Nelson would be better off trying to work with Crawford, but it seems like the two are past that point. The guy is averaging 19.6 points and 4.4 assists per game — it’s not like his contract is dead money. Sure, he has never been known as a good defender and he’s not an efficient scorer (41% FG%), but that shouldn’t be a surprise to the Warriors. Crawford has been in the league for eight years — what did they expect? (And since when did Nelson put a lot of stock in defense?)

One of the things I’d like to see in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement is non-guaranteed contracts. Teams should be able to cut a player if they are underperforming, injured or if the relationship has just run its course. As a consequence, the team would have to pay 50% of the player’s salary for the remainder of the contract. If the player is picked up on waivers, his new team would pay the other 50%, essentially getting him at half price. If he clears waivers, he becomes a free agent and would be able to sign with whomever he likes. This system would reduce the number of dead contracts around the league (which would make management happy) and allow for more player movement in bad situations like Crawford’s (which would make the players happy) while still allowing for some security if a player is injured or his game disappears. This, combined with shorter contracts — three years when a player signs with a new team, four years when he re-signs with his current team — would make it a lot tougher for bad general managers to get their teams into salary cap hell. (I’m looking at you, Ernie Grunfeld.)

With the trade deadline in the rear view mirror and players tied to their current teams at least until the summer, it’s a good time to take a look ahead at the free agent class of 2009. Given the state of the economy and how so many teams are saving up for the class of 2010, some are suggesting that this summer’s free agency could be a “nuclear winter” of sorts, no pun intended. The salary cap and luxury tax thresholds are likely to decline for the first time in years and that has GMs and owners around the league scrambling to cut salary where they can.

There are three types of free agents: players with early termination options (ETO) or player options (PO), restricted free agents and unrestricted free agents.

Players with ETOs or POs

This group includes Kobe Bryant, Jermaine O’Neal, Al Harrington, Jamal Crawford and Mehmet Okur, but it’s highly unlikely that any of these guys will hit the open market given the kind of money they’ll be making by extending their respective contracts. Of this group, Hedo Turkoglu, Anderson Varejao and maybe Carlos Boozer are the only big names that are likely to hit free agency. Boozer has already stated that he’s going to opt out, but he may decide against it if he doesn’t come back strong from his injuries. Turkoglu — the reigning Most Improved Player — is having another nice season, but he’s not playing quite as well as last year. Still, he can command more than the $7.3 million he’s due to make next season. Varejao could stay with the Cavs and make $6.2 million next season, but he and his agent (Dan Fegan) have been looking for more. Varejao wants a long term deal but it seems he and the Cavs disagree on how much he’s actually worth.

For the most part, guys in this group are going to be conservative and play out their contracts.

Al Harrington said he wanted out, and the Warriors have swung a deal to send the forward to the Knicks for Jamal Crawford.

Harrington went public with a trade demand just before the start of the season after privately urging Golden State to move him for months. New York had immediate interest, seeing the versatile and mobile Harrington as an ideal frontcourt fit in new coach Mike D’Antoni’s up-tempo system.

It will require the Knicks to part with Crawford, their leading scorer and another player they had pegged to flourish under D’Antoni. The Warriors, according to NBA front-office sources, see Crawford as a versatile guard who, although not a pure floor leader, can function well in coach Don Nelson’s system while Monta Ellis recovers from ankle surgery — and in tandem with Ellis once he returns.

Yet it’s believed that Walsh has multiple motivations for re-acquiring one of his favorites. Another sizable lure is Harrington’s contract, which pays him $9.2 million this season, $10 million next season and expires after the 2009-10 campaign. That meshes with New York’s intent to slice payroll and get as far under the salary cap as possible for the highly anticipated free-agent summer of 2010 to join the bidding for Cleveland’s LeBron James.

Crawford has a player option after this season that would extend his contract by two years and $19.4 million. He is likely to exercise that option, so the Knicks were smart to move him if the main goal is to cut salary prior to the summer of 2010, when a number of high-profile free agents may hit the market.

The combo guard is playing the best ball of his career, and at 28, he is in his prime. He should be a nice fit in Golden State with or without Monta Ellis at his side. Crawford can run the point, but his natural position is off guard. He’s a volume shooter, as he has only shot better than 42% once in his career. But when he gets hot, he’s an unstoppable scorer.

Al Harrington has seen his numbers decline over the last few seasons after falling out of favor with Don Nelson. He should be a good fit as a power forward in Mike D’Antoni’s up-tempo attack. He’s athletic and can hit the long ball pretty effectively. I’m not sure what this means for David Lee, who plays the same position as Harrington (albeit in a very different way). It’s possible that the Knicks will package Lee with Zach Randolph or Eddy Curry in order to sweeten the pot for potential trade partners. Getting rid of either contract would go a long way to clearing serious cap space in the near future.

Offseason Movement: New head coach Mike D’Antoni needed a point guard to run his up-tempo attack, so the Knicks signed Chris Duhon to fill the role. They probably would have liked to do better, but when you’re $40 million over the cap and have a roster full of players that nobody wants, you’re options are limited. However, Duhon is a pass-first floor general who could surprise.
Keep Your Eye On: Mike D’Antoni’s blood pressure
With Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry still on the roster (and penciled into the starting lineup) it’s not clear how D’Antoni will be able to effectively run his frenetic style of offense. Both players are slow-footed and neither guy is known to be a willing passer, two huge no-no’s in D’Antoni’s system. One player who should thrive is forward David Lee, who might be able to work his way into the starting lineup sooner rather than later.
The Big Question: Is this a lost cause?
Even with Stephon Marbury’s monster contract ($22 million) coming off the books next summer, the team is still in salary cap hell until the summer of 2010 unless they can rid themselves of Randolph ($14.7 million) or Curry ($9.7 million) before then. D’Antoni will bring energy to New York, but how patient will Knick fans be? It’s going to take a while to remake this roster, so will D’Antoni live to see it happen?
Outlook: The Knicks do have some talent on this roster. The aforementioned Lee and Duhon are unselfish players that are a good fit for what D’Antoni is trying to do. Jamal Crawford is a terrific scorer, and if he buys into the system (by passing up questionable shots to create opportunities for his teammates), he could have a nice season. Nate Robinson and Quentin Richardson have the potential to thrive as well. The wildcard is rookie SF Danilo Gallinari. As the first pick of the D’Antoni era, it’s crucial that he’s not a bust. The Knicks best lineup might consist of Duhon and Crawford in the backcourt, Richardson and Gallnari in the frontcourt, and Lee at center. They’d be undersized, but if everyone bought in, that might be a fun lineup to watch.

Check out our NBA Preview page for a look at every team. We’ll be posting three previews per business day, which will take us up to the start of the season on Tuesday, October 28th.