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It’s time to get back on the Jamaal Charles bandwagon

ATLANTA - AUGUST 13: Jamaal Charles  of the Kansas City Chiefs against the Atlanta Falcons at Georgia Dome on August 13, 2010 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Heading into the preseason, Jamaal Charles’s stock was quite high, and for good reason. The 23 year-old had just come off an eight-game stretch where he averaged 140.8 total yards and 1.0 TD per game. He was going in the early second — I even saw a few drafts where he was going in the late first — but with the acquisition of Thomas Jones and the beginning of Todd Haley’s mind games (i.e. refusing to list Charles atop the Chiefs’ depth chart), Charles’s stock has slipped into the late 3rd/early 4th.

I just snagged him in a slow email draft at 3.10 on the heels of his first start of the preseason. He fumbled his first attempt, but finished with 40 yards on six carries and caught a 20-yard pass. During the preseason, Charles has averaged 8.2 yards per touch versus TJ’s 3.2. Even Haley said that he’d “be a fool” if he didn’t play Charles given that type of disparity in production:

“We want this guy to be playing when the games count,” said Haley. “He’s coming off a pretty significant (surgery). … We want him to be playing at a high level.” Haley admitted he’d “be a fool” to not play Charles if he’s severely outproducing Thomas Jones in terms of yards per carry. Added the coach: “We’ve got great competition. Both of those guys want to be pretty good.”

Moreover, Footballguys lists KC’s schedule as the second-easiest for RBs, predicting four favorable matchups through Week 16 (along with zero unfavorable matchups).

I’d still take Pierre Thomas and maybe even Ryan Grant ahead of Charles, but once they’re off the board and I’m staring at guys like LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Knowshon Moreno, Chris Wells and Jahvid Best, Charles is looking awfully good.

Projected carries in KC, Houston, Indy, Buffalo and Oakland

DENVER - JANUARY 03: Jamaal Charles #25 of the Kansas City Chiefs rushes against the Denver Broncos at Invesco Field at Mile High on January 3, 2010 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)

Chris Wesseling of Rotoworld has released updated carry projections for the entire AFC, but let’s focus on five teams: the Chiefs, Texans, Colts, Bills and Raiders.

We’ll go one by one:

Jamaal Charles: 220
Thomas Jones: 140
Kestahn Moore: 30

Charles emerged as the Chiefs’ MVP last year, averaging 20 carries and 121 rushing yards once hit he the starting lineup at mid-season. The projection above accounts for Jones in slightly more than a Willis McGahee-type short-yardage/inside role, giving Charles just under 14 carries per contest. Throw in three receptions per week and it’s enough to leave Charles as a borderline RB1.

Obviously, these numbers disregard the fact that TJ is still atop the depth chart and the head coach is telling the press that Charles’s role is ‘undefined.’ While it would seem incomprehensible to fantasy owners that Haley would limit Charles’s touches given how well he played last season, the news out of KC should not be ignored. TJ has been overlooked everywhere he’s went and while I’m hoping for a 60/40 split like we see here, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s more 50/50.

Arian Foster: 215
Steve Slaton: 125
Jeremiah Johnson: 20
Chris Henry: 10

The line for now trendy Foster love starts behind Rotoworld. We were hyping the former Tennessee star as a Dynasty deep sleeper once the Texans snatched him up after last year’s draft while promoting him as the potential answer in Houston by mid-November. Although Ben Tate’s season-ending broken fibula has killed Foster’s sleeper potential for this year, it certainly offers more clarity in this backfield: Foster is Batman; Slaton is Robin. Draft accordingly.

I didn’t jump on the Foster bandwagon until earlier this summer, but with Tate’s injury, he looks like he should vastly outplay his current draft position (9.02 over the last week). Look for his ADP to continue to rise. I’d start thinking about picking him in the 7th or the 8th. He played very well at the end of last season, has drawn rave reviews from the coaching staff this summer, and it’s clear that the team doesn’t view Slaton as a feature back any longer.

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Bengals clinch AFC North with lackluster effort

Thanks to Cedric Benson’s 133 rushing yards, the Bengals beat the Chiefs 17-10 on Sunday to clinch the AFC North. It was Benson’s sixth 100-yard rushing performance of the season, which is a new franchise record for Cincinnati.

The Bengals defense was sound today, much like it has been all season. They surrendered only 10 points and 172 passing yards, although they did allow Jamaal Charles to rush for 102 yards on 24 carries.

But for as good as Benson and the defense looked, this wasn’t an overly impressive performance by Cincinnati. They battled San Diego last week, but outside of that game, the Bengals haven’t looked impressive since back-to-back wins over the Ravens and Steelers in mid November. They continue to struggle trying to make plays in the passing game and they seem to play down to their competition.

This has been a great year so far for the Bengals and I realize they’re kind of playing with house money because they weren’t supposed to be this good. But that said, this isn’t a team streaking into the playoffs with a full head of steam. Much like other teams, they have plenty of wrinkles to iron out and little time to do it. It’ll be interesting to see if they can figure things out in time for their first playoff game or if they’ll be one and done.

Chiefs suspend Larry Johnson for two weeks

The Chiefs have suspended running back Larry Johnson two weeks for conduct detrimental to the team after he took a shot at head coach Todd Haley via his Twitter page last Sunday night. He also used a homophobic slur to degrade another Twitter user that had criticized him for his off-field troubles.

Kansas City is on a bye this week, so Johnson might only miss one game. But during the next two weeks, the Chiefs will evaluate backup Jamaal Charles and then see how Johnson responds to the punishment.

LJ should take a page out of Brandon Marshall’s playbook and respond favorably to his suspension. When the Broncos suspended Marshall earlier this season, he apologized and then when he returned, he was on his best behavior. He hasn’t complained since and now he’s on an undefeated team that is considering re-signing him to a long-term extension.

Granted, Marshall and Johnson’s situations are a little different. LJ isn’t playing for a new contract like Marshall is and even if he does turn into a choirboy, the Chiefs have zero shot of making the playoffs (unlike the Broncos). That said, Johnson owes it to his teammates and his organization not to be a distraction, especially considering that he isn’t even producing on the field. He does his team and himself more harm if he’s a malcontent then if he just owns up to what he did and move on.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens. The smart money is on Johnson being released either during or after the season. The Chiefs will probably make him suffer the rest of the year in Kansas City and then dispose of him in the offseason. Given his age, lack of production and off field issues, there’s just no reason to keep him in a Chiefs uniform.

With LJ’s future in doubt, Chiefs to lean on Charles

NFL.com reports that the Chiefs have ordered Larry Johnson to refrain from team activities in the wake of comments he made on his Twitter page about head coach Todd Haley. Johnson also used a homophonic slur to degrade another Twitter user that had commented on LJ’s page.

On Tuesday, Haley suggested that Jamaal Charles has earned a larger role in Kansas City’s offense and could take over the fulltime tailback duties while the team investigates Johnson’s situation. The 22-year old back has flashed big play potential throughout his short career, but he’s had problems holding onto the ball and has been an inconsistent performer.

It appears that the writing is on the wall for Johnson. While Charles isn’t the answer to the Chiefs’ rushing woes (it doesn’t matter who takes the carries if KC’s O-line doesn’t start opening running lanes), he’s worth taking a shot on while Johnson is busy being a malcontent off the field. The cap hit might be too great for the Chiefs to outright release LJ but given his age and production (or lack thereof), don’t rule out the possibility.

Haley has stood by Johnson all season, but it appears that he has had enough. The Chiefs are off this week, but one would imagine that Haley will prep Charles for the fulltime role and depending on what happens with LJ in the next two weeks, Charles will get the opportunity to start at Jacksonville in Week 9.

Revisiting the Jared Allen trade

Brady

In his latest edition of “Monday Morning Quarterback,” SI.com NFL guru Peter King makes a great point about the possible mistake the Chiefs made in not paying defensive end Jared Allen and subsequently trading him to the Vikings in the ’08 offseason:

What the Chiefs got:

1st round (15th overall) Branden Albert, OT — Starting LT has a chance to be good. In-and-out work ethic.
3rd round (73) Jamaal Charles, RB — Change-of-pace back averaging five carries a game in 21 pro games.
3rd round (82) DaJuan Morgan, S — Sub safety who still has to prove self to new coaching staff.
6th round (182) Kevin Robinson, WR — Cut by Chiefs in ’08.

What the Vikings got:

Jared Allen, DE — The league’s best all-around defensive end has 21 sacks and three safeties in 22 Viking games.
6th round (187) John Sullivan, C — First-year starting center on one of NFL’s best lines.
It’s not certain, but it’s possible that history will show that the Vikings got a more productive player at 187 (Sullivan) than the Chiefs got at 15 (Albert). Ouch.

King makes a great point by illustrating that the Chiefs are definitely on the losing end of this trade so far. Allen has been outstanding and the Vikings felt confident enough in Sullivan’s abilities not to panic when long-time center Matt Birk signed with Baltimore in the offseason.

That said, Albert was a highly regarded offensive line prospect in the 2008 draft. In fact, he was even being considered as a top 5 pick entering the draft and many pundits were surprised that he slipped to the Chiefs at No. 15. So it wouldn’t surprise me if he winds up being a good player once he gets a few years of experience under his belt.

It would probably be more fair to look at this trade after the 2010 season when the Kansas City players have had three years of service in the league. Plus, Allen wouldn’t have been a fit for their new 3-4 defensive front anyway, so the Chiefs shouldn’t lose sleep over the deal. Still, it’s always interesting to look back.

Breaking News: Larry Johnson suspended one game…

…and it isn’t for stiff-arming that woman in the nightclub. This is a team suspension.

The Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday suspended running back Larry Johnson one game for violating a team rule.

Chiefs coach Herm Edwards refused to disclose what rule the two-time Pro Bowler broke. Edwards did say the violation had nothing to do with the charge of simple assault filed against Johnson earlier this week.

KansasCity.com says that Kolby Smith, not Jamaal Charles, will get the start, but Charles will no doubt see increased action.

Neither guy is a good play against a great Tennessee defense, but if you have room you could stash one or both away in case LJ sees further punishment from the league for the assault.

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